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Brent oil stocks are in limbo as they head for a record-breaking month
Brent crude oil rose by 3% Monday, and was on track for a monthly record rise. Global stocks were in limbo while investors waited for the Gulf conflict that they fear could 'bring inflation to a climax and increase the risk of recession in many parts of the world. In a region that is more dependent on Gulf oil, the?Nikkei?index closed down 2.8% in Asia. European stock markets firmed up in early trading, and Wall Street futures indicated gains - albeit small given the recent sell-off. Investors were assessing conflicting developments. According to The Financial Times, Donald Trump said that the U.S. might seize Kharg Island, where Iran exports most of its oil from the Persian Gulf. However, he also suggested that a ceasefire may come soon. Pakistan has said that it is preparing "meaningful discussions" in order to resolve the conflict with Iran within the next few days. This comes despite the fact that Tehran accuses Washington of planning a land attack as the U.S. army builds up its forces in the area. Eren Osman is managing director of wealth at Arbuthnot Latham. He said that reopening the Strait of Hormuz would be the key to calm the world markets. He said he didn't expect a long-term conflict because he thought Trump had a pain threshold for the market. Madison Cartwright is a senior geo-economics expert at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. She said that Iran's control of Strait of Hormuz gave it little incentive for concession. The bank expected the war to last until at least June. Prices for fuel, oil, gas and fertiliser have risen as a result of the clampdown in the Strait. Food, pharmaceuticals and other petrochemicals are all expected to increase in price. This is especially bad news for Asia as much of this region depends on Middle Eastern energy. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan fell 1.8%. European stocks last gained 0.3%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures both showed gains of 0.5% each. Bruce Kasman warned that the longer the Strait is closed, the more the buffer supply will be reduced, which could lead to dramatic price increases for crude oil, gas, and other commodities. If the Strait remained closed for another month, oil prices would rise to $150/bbl. This scenario would also be consistent with a possible increase in industrial energy consumers' costs. Brent crude is up 3% at $116 per barrel. This would be a gain of 60% in March, which would surpass the jump in price that occurred in 1990 after Iraq invaded Kuwait. U.S. Crude climbed 2% at $101.67. Investors have revised their outlook for interest rate rates in almost all countries due to the inflationary threat. The U.S. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at an event on Monday. John Williams, the influential head of New York Fed will also be speaking. This week, data on U.S. manufacturing, retail sales and payrolls will give an update on the state of the economy. Bond markets have been hit by the energy shock and pressure on fiscal budgets due to higher borrowing costs. The yields on ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds were at their lowest point of?4.3959%. The increased volatility of the markets has helped the U.S. Dollar as the most liquid currency in the world. The U.S. also has a comparative advantage over Europe and Asia because it is a net exporter of energy. The dollar index traded?nearly a 10-month-high at 100.26 and was essentially flat for the day. The?dollar fell 0.3% to 159.775yen after more warnings from Japanese authorities about possible intervention. The?dollar has dropped 0.3% to 159.775 yen after more warnings from the Japanese authorities. The euro dropped 0.1% to $1.1493, which is not far off the March low of $1.1409. Gold gained 0.9% on commodity markets to $4,534 per ounce, after recently receiving little support as a haven for safe-havens or as a hedge from inflation risks. Reporting by Iain Withers, Wayne Cole and Thomas Derpinghaus; Editing by Muralikumar Aantharaman and Susan Fenton
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The gold price is capped by dimmed Fed rate cuts and dip buying;
Gold rose on Monday due to a surge in energy prices, which fueled inflation fears and dimmed expectations of interest rate reductions by the U.S. Federal Reserve this year. As of 0755 GMT spot gold was up 0.8% at $4,526.67 an ounce, bouncing back from a loss of 1% earlier in the day. U.S. Gold Futures for April Delivery gained 0.7%, reaching $4,554. Gold's price action last week, when it ended a three-week losing run, suggested that oversold behavior was at play and that recent declines could be reversed. This must be confirmed this week by the price action. Nicholas Frappell is the global head of institutional market at ABC Refinery. He said that given the rapid pace of headlines, it was easy to anticipate volatility. Brent crude rose above $115 per barrel after Yemeni Houthis attacked Israel over the weekend. This widened the ongoing war and added to inflation problems. The contract has risen 60% in March so far, which is a record monthly increase. The traders see little likelihood of a rate cut in the United States this year as higher energy costs threaten to increase inflation and limit monetary easing. This compares to expectations of two rate cuts before the conflict started. Gold's appeal is boosted by inflation, but high interest rates reduce its demand. The markets are now awaiting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks later that day at a Harvard conference, as well as remarks from New York Fed President John Williams. The U.S. Dollar, which has gained a little more than 2% since February 28, when the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran began, has been a major factor in the gold price's decline. Bullion has risen about 5% this quarter. The biggest macro-picture behind this underperformance is a huge shift in interest rate expectations... Frappell said that the USD has reacted to this. Spot silver increased 1.2%, to $70.43 an ounce. Palladium and platinum spot prices rose by 3.4% and 2.8% respectively. (Reporting and editing by Sumana Nandy, Harikrishnan Nair, and Noel John from Bengaluru)
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Floods and heavy rain kill 22 Afghans
The National Disaster Management Authority in 'Afghanistan (NDMA)' announced on Monday that heavy rains triggered flash floods and collapsed buildings, killing 22 people. It also injured 32 others. The majority of deaths occurred in the eastern and central provinces, such as Parwan, Maidan Wardak and Daykundi, where torrential rainfall caused flash floods, and collapsed houses. It said that conditions remained "unstable", with the risk of flooding and further rain in certain areas. Twenty-two people have been killed and 32 injured in floods and other weather related incidents that occurred across 13 provinces during the last two days, according to an NDMA representative who declined to be identified because he wasn't authorised to address the media. Afghanistan is susceptible to 'natural disasters, and the United Nations has listed it as one of?the most vulnerable countries to climate change. Since the Taliban took power in 2021, international aid has been cut, and the country is struggling to cope. In a report published by the United Nations Development Programme in November, it was stated that earthquakes, flooding, and drought had destroyed 8,000 Afghan homes in 2025, and stretched public services to their limit. Reporting by Sayed Hassib, writing Sakshi Dayal and editing Kate Mayberry.
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India's JioStar terminates Bangladesh IPL cricket broadcast deal, letter shows
Documents seen by the.. In January, Bangladesh banned IPL broadcasts. This was after Kolkata Knight Riders dropped Bangladesh pacer Mustafizur Rahman at the Indian Cricket Board's request. Tensions between the two nations were rising following the murder of a Hindu in Bangladesh. Even though Bangladesh is reviewing its ban, and said on Saturday that any further action will depend on the 'opinion of its sports minister,' the termination by JioStar will mean there will be no broadcaster local for the upcoming IPL season even if it were to change their stance. The agreement is terminated immediately," JioStar stated in a letter dated 17 February to Bangladesh broadcaster TSports. TSports had sublicensed rights from JioStar for IPL season from 2023-2027. The company said that its partner "continued to fail and default" in adhering the agreed payment deadlines. JioStar, the joint venture between Ambani’s Reliance Group and Walt Disney did not reply to questions. TSports, Bangladesh's sport and information ministries and the Ambani-owned Reliance did not reply to queries. IPL is the richest cricket league in the world, valued at $18.5 billion. It is hugely popular in Bangladesh where cricket is a passion, just like in the rest of the subcontinent. The latest season began on March 28. India-Bangladesh ties have been strained ever since the 'political transition' in 'Dhaka on August 20, 2024, which disrupted close ties between Sheikh Hasina and former Prime Minister. Hasina fled to New Delhi following a "mass uprising" in response. There are signs that the relations have thawed since Tarique Rahman said, in February, that Bangladesh will engage with its neighbours on the basis mutual respect and shared interests. In a separate JioStar email, also dated 'February 17', the company also announced that it had terminated the broadcasting deals for the Women’s Premier League Cricket Tournament in Bangladesh due to similar defaults. Reporting by Praveen Parmasivam, Dhaka, and RumaPaul in Chennai; editing by Aditya Koyyur and Arun Kalra
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South Korea confirms imports of Russian naphtha
The South Korean Industry Ministry confirmed the import of 27,000 tons of Russian naphtha arriving on Monday. The ministry refused to confirm the destination of the shipment or if it was for one South Korean company or multiple firms. Local media reported that this is the first time South Korea imports Russian?naphtha after the beginning of the Iran War. Local media reported that the industry ministry is working with the South Korean Foreign Ministry to secure additional supplies of Russian naphtha. Naphtha, a refined oil-based product, is typically used as a feedstock by petrochemical manufacturers and is also a key ingredient in plastics. The ministry said that although South?Korean firms are also trying hard to secure Russian crude, they haven't been successful yet. Ahn Dogeol of the ruling party, who attended a meeting on the economic impact of the Middle East Crisis, said that another problem is a shortage in synthetic resin, which is used to create plastic products and glues. The industry ministry was looking into ways such as limiting the exports of this material. Reporters at the parliament were told that the government was preparing measures to 'prioritise' key sectors such as healthcare, where plastics are used in many different ways, including medical procedures, or everyday necessities, should the war continue, and it'releases domestic oil reserves, or expands supply of petrochemicals,' lawmakers said. Reporting by Heejin Shim, Kyu-seok Kim and Joyce Lee. Editing by Christian Schmollinger & Kate Mayberry.
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Stocks in Europe hold steady ahead of inflation data
European shares were little changed on Monday, ahead of a local inflation report. Investors also continued to watch the Middle East conflict that has impacted global markets. As of 0809 GMT, the pan-European STOXX 600 index was flat at 574.98. Defense sector was the worst hit with a 0.8% drop. The focus is on Germany's CPI data and HICP numbers due later in the day, to gauge the effect of the war on Europe’s largest economy. The Middle East conflict has pushed oil prices higher, causing inflation fears. This is pushing Europe's STOXX600 toward its steepest drop since March 2020. The conflict is escalating and the Houthi militia, which is backed by Iran, has fired missiles towards Israel. This escalates the conflict, and fuels fears that shipping lanes will be disrupted further. Brent Crude soared to $115 per barrel Monday. It is still too early to talk about dates for interest rate hikes. According to Francois Villeroy de Galhau, the French central bank head, it is important to stop any energy-driven inflation spreading. INWIT, a stock that is traded by individuals, fell 3.1% when Telecom Italia announced it had terminated a long-term "lease" contract with Italy's largest mast operator. The UK-listed shares of Rio Tinto rose nearly 5%, after the miner announced that operations had resumed at three of 'its four Pilbara Iron Ore Port Terminals' after 'Tropical Cyclone Narelle' swept across Western Australia's Pilbara Region. This helped boost London's FTSE 100 by 0.2%. Reporting by Avinash in Bengaluru, Editing by Sonia Cheema
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Consultancy says that rising Ukrainian diesel imports will prevent a shortage in April.
Analysts do not expect a fuel shortage in Ukraine next month. After Russian missile strikes virtually destroyed Ukraine's refining capability, the country became almost completely dependent on fuel imported from Europe, particularly western, central, and southern Europe. Enkorr fuel consultancy in Kyiv said that the average daily diesel deliveries over a 'four-day period from 23 March 'to 26 March 'were 21,400 metric tonnes, up from 19,400 tons during the same time last week. The consultancy stated that if the current pace is maintained, imports in March could reach 565,000 tons. This would be 9% more than the 522,000 ton estimate and a 7% increase over the same period of last year. It added that there is no risk of shortage. This was confirmed by traders. Last week, the Ukrainian energy ministry said that the diesel market had been fully supplied in March. About 70% of April's supply was also secured. Enkorr reported this month that traders estimated the wholesale diesel price increase 'because of the Middle East war' at almost 50% in less than one month. (Reporting and editing by David Goodman.)
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Indonesian prosecutors raid the companies of a coal tycoon suspected of illegal mining operations
The Attorney General Office of Indonesia announced on Monday that it had raided several companies associated with the coal tycoon Samin Tan, after he was identified over the weekend as being a suspect for alleged illegal mining activities. Samin Tan was once a powerful dealmaker, known for his $1 Billion investment in Bumi Plc. This helped save Indonesia's Bakrie family of power from an imminent default. The AGO stated that the coal company of Tan, PT Asmin Koalindo Tuhup was terminated 'in 2017 but the company allegedly continues mining operations until 2025. This case is part of Jakarta's ongoing crackdown on illegal mining, after President Prabowo vowed to eradicate bad practices when it comes to the exploitation and exploitation Indonesia's natural resources. Anang Supriatna, AGO spokesperson, told reporters that prosecutors have raided a number assets connected to AKT, Samin Tan and questioned over 20 witnesses. He said that the raids and seizures were to search for assets suspected of having a'relationship with, or being the proceeds of crime. A government taskforce has already seized nearly 1,700 hectares (4.200.79 acres), of the AKT Mine in Central Kalimantan. The AGO ?is currently calculating the losses to the state caused by the alleged crime, Anang ?said, and a government task force has imposed ?a 4.2 trillion rupiah ($247.20 million)administration fine on the company. Tan was named as a suspect by Indonesia's Corruption Eradication Commission in 2019 in a case of bribery, but he has been legally cleared. Tan's lawyers could not be reached immediately for comment. (1 dollar = 16,990 rupiah). (Reporting and writing by Bernadette Munthe, Fransiska Naangoy, David Stanway, editing)
Gold prices rise on the back of a weaker dollar but Fed rate cuts dimming hopes limit growth
Gold prices rose on Monday, as the dollar softened. However, gains were limited by a surge in energy costs that fueled inflation fears and dimmed expectations of interest rate reductions from the U.S. Federal Reserve this year.
Gold spot rose 0.8%, to $4,528.74 an ounce at 0627 GMT. It had fallen about 1% in the previous session. U.S. Gold Futures for April Delivery gained 0.7%, to $4,556.70.
Dollar-denominated goods are now more affordable to holders of other currencies.
Gold's price movement last week, when it broke a three-week losing run, suggested that oversold behavior was at play and a possible reversal in recent declines. This must be confirmed this week by the price. It's easy to anticipate volatility, given the rapid flow headlines," said?Nicholas Frappell. Global head of institutional market at ABC Refinery.
Brent crude soared to $115 per barrel after the Yemeni Houthis launched an attack?on Israel at the weekend. This widened the war and exacerbated inflation problems. The contract has risen 60% in March so far, which is a record monthly increase.
The traders see little likelihood of a rate cut in the United States this year as higher energy costs threaten to fuel broader inflation, and limit scope for monetary ease. This compares to?expectations of two rate cuts prior to the start of the conflict.
Gold's appeal is boosted by inflation, but high interest rates reduce its demand.
Markets are now awaiting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at an event held by Harvard later that day, as well as John Williams, the New York Fed president.
The U.S. Dollar, which has gained more than 2% in the past two months since the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran began on the 28th of February, has been a major factor. Bullion has risen about 5% this quarter.
The biggest macro-picture?behind this underperformance is the massive shift in interest rate expectations... Frappell said that the USD has reacted to this.
Spot silver increased 1.5% to $70.61 an ounce. Spot palladium increased 3% and platinum rose 3.4%. (Reporting and editing by Sumana Nandy, Harikrishnan Nair, and Noel John from Bengaluru)
(source: Reuters)