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McGeever: The data on US jobs forces us to look backwards from the Mideast chaos and AI "doom"
Investors will turn their attention, for a while, to the familiar economic terrain of the United States on Friday, as long as there is still war in the Middle East. jobs data. Since the joint U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran, last Saturday, the events have dominated the market thinking to such an extent that fears about artificial intelligence putting millions of white collar workers at risk of being thrown out have been pushed back. The U.S. Non-farm Payrolls and Unemployment Figures for February, which will be released on Friday, may bring these concerns back to the forefront in the minds of investors, and, depending on the specifics, they could also rise to the top of the agendas of policymakers. A poll of economists found that the median consensus was for a net increase in non-farm payrolls of 59,000 last month, which is less than half the January rise. The unemployment rate will remain at 4.3%. The jobs report is still closely monitored for any warning signs. These include weak job growth or net job losses. In fact, starting now, monthly payroll reports, as well as other labor market indicators, such "JOLTS", layoffs and weekly claims for joblessness, will likely be lightning rods in the debate about "AI doom", or whether AI technology will ultimately destroy jobs, economic growth and demand. APOCALYPSE, HOW? Last week, the markets were abuzz with talk about an upcoming AI "apocalypse." Investors were trying to identify AI winners and loser, while bets for multiple Federal Reserve rate reductions this year increased. Jack Dorsey CEO of Block Inc., who announced on February 26th that he would be firing "nearly half" of his employees, even though his fintech company was "strong... and profitability was improving," helped to incite fear. Some people think that Dorsey, and other CEOs or chief financial officers might 'blame' the disruptive power of AI on what are really cost-cutting measures - given the labor hoarding after the pandemic. Dorsey’s statement scared investors, but it was not surprising. A series of research notes and blogs describing the doomsday AI scenarios had been widely circulated. Investors and policymakers need to separate the facts from the noise when assessing AI's impact on the labor markets. This means analyzing hard numbers, which are often backwards-looking. It is a challenge to use that data to predict the direction of wind. The picture is more balanced than AI skeptics would have you believe. Suraj Srinivasan, a professor at Harvard Business School, and his team analyzed all U.S. jobs posted from 2019 to March of last year. The study found that after ChatGPT launched in November 2022 the demand for analytical, technical and creative roles increased by 20%, while openings for jobs that are most likely to be automated fell 13%. Goldman Sachs economists estimate AI is currently a hindrance to job growth by 5,000-10,000. This is negligible in an economy which creates over 30 million new gross jobs each year. Goldman's economics estimates that AI will eventually replace 11 million jobs, or 6-7% of all workers. The technology will also create new jobs. They wrote: "We do not expect a job apocalypse." The same is true of other?research. Morgan Stanley's survey of U.S. firms conducted in January revealed that companies in the industries most likely to adopt AI are more inclined to hire and retrain employees than to eliminate or not fill jobs. A Dallas Fed paper published last week concluded that AI has both helped and replaced workers. The headlines of the monthly U.S. Employment reports are usually all that matters. With AI 'doomsday' fears rife the details below the headlines could now take on a much greater significance and help cut through the fog. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Crews repair line at Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant in Ukraine
The head of Russia's nuclear energy corporation announced on Thursday that repair crews had restored the external line of the Russian-controlled?Zaporizhzhia nucleopower plant in southeast Ukraine, nearly a month after the facility was shut down. In a public statement, Alexei Likhachev, the director general of Rosatom said that repairs were completed on the Ferosplavna-1 power line, which connects the plant with the grid, late Thursday afternoon. He said that the repair work was completed "one day earlier than scheduled" at Europe's biggest nuclear plant with its six reactors. The plant was taken over by Russia shortly after the invasion of Ukraine by Moscow troops in February 202. In the statement, Likhachev said he "wanted to personally thank our specialists who completed the task before schedule and did so while working around the clock under conditions of constant stress." A second external line?was in operation during the entire work. Rafael Grossi confirmed that the line was restored. He said its completion "strengthens the nuclear safety and security". Ukraine has not yet commented. Grossi stated at the time, that "military activities" were reportedly responsible for the line's failure on February 10. The IAEA mediated a ceasefire that allowed repairs to be carried out. The Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant does not produce electricity and relies on outside power to cool its nuclear material, preventing a catastrophic event. Russia and Ukraine accuse each of the other of putting safety at a?plant in danger by staging attacks near it. Last year, when both power lines were down for several weeks and the site was forced to use diesel generators, a similar truce had been set up. One of the most contentious issues during the peace talks mediated by the United States is who should operate and control the plant. (Reporting and Editing by Alistair Bell).
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Costco Wholesale beats holiday-quarter comparable sales estimates on resilient demand
Costco Wholesale exceeded Wall Street expectations?for comparable sales for the second quarter on Thursday. This was due to a resiliant holiday season?demand, both for essentials and "nice-to have" items in its membership-only shops. Walmart and Costco, which are big box stores that cater to all income levels and appeal to consumers who are looking for value in order stretch their budgets due high rent and gas costs, have become increasingly popular. Costco has invested in Kirkland?Signature, its own brand, since it raised its membership fee in 2024. The company was one of over 1,000 businesses that sued the government, claiming President Donald Trump did not have legal authority to impose tariffs in accordance with the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Trump's decision to impose temporary levies against imports, while the Supreme Court has ruled down emergency?duties?adds to the macroeconomic strain for consumer companies who are already dealing with a volatile trade?background and increased cost pressures. According to LSEG, the company's same-store sales for the quarter, excluding gasoline, increased by?6.7% compared to analysts'?estimates that a 5.88% increase would be seen. The second quarter net?income?rose by nearly 14% to $2.04 billion. The shares of the company were mostly unchanged during extended trading on Friday. (Reporting by Sanskriti Shekhar in Bengaluru; Editing by Alan Barona)
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Official from the White House says that US is considering oil futures market actions to combat rising energy costs
A senior White House official stated that the U.S. Treasury Department will announce measures to combat 'rising energy prices' as early as Thursday. This could include potential actions involving the oil 'futures market. Washington's potential move would be an unusual attempt to influence energy costs through financial markets, rather than through physical oil supplies. Officials are racing to reduce the political and economic impact of rising fuel prices. The global oil price has risen by 16% as the conflict in the Middle East continues to spread. According to AAA, the U.S. travel agency that tracks fuel prices, the national average price of gas rose 27 cents in one week to $3.25 a gallon. The approach also reflects the background and experience of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. He was a former global macro investor and hedge fund manager who traded currencies, bonds, and commodities for decades before joining the Administration. Bessent was previously chief investment officer of Soros Fund Management, and later founded the macro hedge fund Key Square Group. No one from Treasury was available to comment immediately. Donald Trump said on Thursday that he is not worried about the rising prices of?U.S. In an exclusive interview, he said that the rising gas prices were due to the escalating conflict in Iran. When asked about higher prices at gas stations, he replied: "I'm not concerned about it." "They will drop?very quickly when this is done,?and they will rise if this continues, but it is more important that gasoline prices increase a little." (Reporting by Jarrett Renshaw, Editing by Franklin Paul; Cynthia Osterman and Mark Porter).
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Venezuela will ensure the security of mining companies and exceed oil production targets-Burgum
The United States Interior Secretary Doug Burgum struck an optimistic tone as he prepared to leave Venezuela after a two day visit. He told journalists that a new mining bill will create opportunities for businesses, and licenses to allow them to operate are on the horizon. Burgum, the U.S. National Energy Dominance Council's head, has praised the efforts of interim president Delcy Rodrguez to open up the South American nation to foreign investment for oil and minerals. This praise is similar to that given by U.S. Donald Trump. Burgum is the 2nd cabinet secretary to travel to Venezuela since the January U.S. raid which captured President Nicolas Maduro. In February, U.S. Energy Sec. Chris Wright made a visit to Venezuela. Venezuela has massive mineral reserves, including gold, iron ore, coltan and bauxite. However, the country's production is only a fraction of its capacity, as it urgently needs major repairs, upgrades and investments for plant expansions. Venezuela's largest conglomerate CVG is cash-strapped, and the company Minerven, a state mining firm, is also under U.S. sanction. Foreign?investment in the past decade has been minimal due to nationalizations by late President Hugo Chavez. Experts now see a room for an "immediate recovery" in gold exports, but have warned that massive investments - even more than the oil industry - are needed along with renewed efforts for exploration. Burgum said he brought with him more than two dozen companies involved in mining and minerals. He met with the leaders of major Venezuelan and foreign companies on Thursday morning. Burgum responded that companies who are interested in returning or entering Venezuela have a proven track record of?integrity' and the new law is an opportunity to create jobs. "I believe you're going to see that this government is very concerned with providing the right type of security. Burgum said that we heard assurances at the meeting yesterday and today that if companies wanted to reach these areas, they would do their due diligence, consider reopening mining operations, or even return to mines which they ran themselves 15 to 20 years ago. He added: "I feel very optimistic about the?environment in which investment will flow, not only to offshore oil and Gas, but also to Caracas, where these immense resources exist." Burgum said that there will be soon a set general licenses issued for the mining sector, similar to those already granted for oil producers. Burgum added that there will soon be a set of general licenses for the mining industry, similar to those already issued for oil producers.
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US and European stocks fall after Iran war fuels oil rally and bond sales
The dollar rose on Thursday as oil prices surged amid supply concerns and intensifying combat on the sixth day in the U.S. and Israeli war against?Iran. Iran's campaign continued as Tehran fired a volley of missiles towards Israel and threatened to retaliate "wherever" they were after a U.S. strike. A strike was made on a ship that was far away from the battlefield. U.S. president Donald Trump claimed the right to decide who leads Iran next, as U.S. jets and Israeli planes bombarded areas in the country. Gulf cities also faced new attacks. Investors were encouraged on Wednesday when the U.S. announced that it would protect vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. This is where around one-fifth of all oil and LNG are shipped. As the conflict intensified, more oil tankers were attacked in Gulf waters. Iranian drones also entered Azerbaijan raising the possibility that the crisis could spread to other oil producing states. Initial assessments indicate that an Iranian remote-controlled boat loaded with explosives was targeting a Bahamas-flagged oil tanker anchored near Iraq’s Khor al Zubair Port. After a large explosion, a second tanker was anchored off Kuwait and taking in water. It also spilled oil. The Iranian crisis has created a cloud over our heads. Mona Mahajan is the head of Edward Jones' investment strategy and asset management. She said that there was no way to know how long this crisis would last or what its total impact would be. However, she did note that previous Middle East crises were usually short-lived. Mahajan cited the reports of attacks on tankers to say that investors were unnerved by the "very significant move higher in oil price" on Thursday. Stocks on Wall Street continued to fall in the afternoon trading. At 2:54 pm, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1,047.28?points, or 2.15 %, to 47692.13, while the S&P500 fell 82.82?points, or 1.21 %, to 6,786.42, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 241.42?points, or 1.05 %, to 22,567.15. MSCI's global stock index fell 8.65 points or 0.84% to 1,022.94. The pan-European STOXX 600 closed lower by 1.29% while Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 fell 33.00 points or 1.35%. MSCI's Asia Pacific Price Index rose by 2%. South Korea's KOSPI closed almost 10% higher. The index, under pressure because of the country's dependency on imported oil has erased much of Wednesday's record decline after President Lee Jae Myung activated a $68 billion fund to stabilize the market. There is more hesitation today because there are concerns about the possibility of the oil price going up. The bottleneck in the Strait of Hormuz is a hot topic, said Kristina Hooper, chief market strategist for Man Group. Hooper noted that while traders are reacting to the latest headlines coming out of the Middle East, the current market "attention span" is only as long as a gnat. She warned investors of possible volatility following Friday's U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report, as investor concerns about labor-market risks due to artificial intelligence are growing. You could change the mood in a matter of minutes with a single economic statistic. She said that we could see this tomorrow when the jobs report is released. The dollar recovered from a short pullback in currencies on Wednesday, as investors sought out safe-haven assets. The dollar index (which measures the greenback against a basket including the yen, euro and yen) rose by 0.51%, to 99.31. The euro fell 0.52% to $1.1572. The dollar gained 0.5% against the Japanese yen to 157.81, while the pound fell 0.38% to 1.3321. Bitcoin fell by 3.23%, to $70,980.07. Ethereum fell 3.39% to 2,077.74. Bond yields in the U.S. Treasury rose for a 4th?straight?day on fears that higher oil prices may increase inflation and impact Federal Reserve policy. The yield of the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes increased 6 basis points from 4.082% to 4.142% on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the yield on 30-year bonds rose 3.1 basis point to 4.7508%. The yield on the two-year notes, which moves typically in line with expectations of interest rates for the Federal Reserve rose by 5.4 basis points from 3.543% to 3.597%. As the war disrupted shipping and supplies, some Middle?Eastern major producers cut production. According to Vortexa and Kpler ship-tracking data, around 300 oil tankers remain inside the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic has been largely stopped since the weekend. U.S. crude ended the day up by 8.51% or $6.35 at $81.01 per barrel. Brent was up 4.93%, or $4.01, to $85.41 for a barrel. Gold prices are reversing gains made on Wednesday due to higher Treasury yields, and a stronger dollar. Spot gold dropped 1.34%, to $5 066,39 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures dropped 1.24% to an ounce of $5,056.60. Spot silver dropped 2.79% to an ounce of $81.08.
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Treasury yields rise for the fourth consecutive day as oil prices increase inflation risk
U.S. Treasury Yields rose for the fourth consecutive day on Thursday, as the war in Iran intensified. This fueled concerns about inflation and dampened expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. U.S. 'crude' jumped 8.91%, to $81.29 a barrel, and Brent climbed 5.17%, to $85.61 a barrel. This was due to the fact that more oil tankers were attacked in Gulf waters, and the U.S. - Iran war intensified. Iranian drones have entered Azerbaijan and are threatening to spread this crisis to other oil producers. Since the start of the war last week, crude prices have risen by more than 18%. The yield of the benchmark 10-year Treasury bill in the United States rose by 5 basis points, to 4.132%. It had previously reached a high of 4.15%. Over the last four days, the yield has risen by more than 17 basis point. This is its largest four-session increase since early July. Michael Green, chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management of Philadelphia, said: "The spike in gasoline prices in response to the Middle East events are clearly a cause for concern for those who expect a Fed reaction function." The curve is primarily driven by the fear of inflation, which has people reducing their expectations for Fed cutbacks. According to LSEG, the markets are pricing in a Fed cut of 40 basis points this year. This is down from 50 basis points just before the war started. The 30-year bond yield increased 2.6 basis points, to 4.743%. It had previously reached 4.772%. This was its highest level since February 12. CME's FedWatch Tool shows that the expectation of a Fed meeting in June to cut at least 25 basis point has dropped from 47.4% last week and 75% one month ago. The U.S. Treasury yield graph, which is closely watched as an indicator of expectations for the economy, showed a positive part measuring the difference between the yields of two-year and 10-year Treasury bills. This was 54.4 basis points. The Fed is less likely to need to lower interest rates if recent economic data shows that price pressures are still present and the labor market is stable. Initial jobless claims for the week ending February 28 were flat at 213,000 seasonally adjusted, which was slightly lower than the 215,000 estimates of economists polled. The Labor Department also reported that import prices increased 0.2% in January, which was in line with expectations after a 0.2% increase in December. This followed an upwardly-revised 0.2% rise in December. A decline in energy prices was more than offset a surge of capital goods prices. The Labor Department also reported that worker productivity fell to a 2.8% annualized rate in the fourth-quarter from a 5.2% rate in the third-quarter, which was?upwardly reviewed. Unit labor costs rose at a 2.8% rate after a 1.8% decline. The data comes just before Friday's "key government payrolls" report which will also influence expectations about the direction of Fed policy. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury, which moves typically in line with expectations of interest rates from the Fed, increased 4.4 basis points, to 3.587%. Over the last four sessions, the two-year yield has jumped nearly 22 basis points. This is its biggest four-day increase since mid-May. Fed officials recently stated that it would take time to evaluate the impact of Iran conflict on monetary policies. On Wednesday, Governor Stephen Miran told Bloomberg TV that the war did not change the need for interest rate cuts. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said that high inflation and recent job numbers could shift the Fed's risk outlook. After closing at 2.5%, the breakeven rate for five-year U.S. Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) reached its highest level since January 30. The 10-year TIPS Breakeven Rate was at 2,303% last, which means the market expects inflation to average 2.3% per year over the next decade.
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Israel killed Khamenei on November 1, the defence minister said
Israel's Defence Minister,?Israel?Katz, said that Israel made the decision in November to kill Iran’s?Supreme leader Ali Khamenei and planned to execute the operation six months later. Khamenei died in the early hours of Saturday's U.S. and Israeli air campaign, the first time a top leader of a nation has been assassinated by an airstrike. Joint air assault nears the end of its first week, after the opening salvos killed leaders and set off a war in the region, with Iranian attacks on Israel, the Gulf, and 'Iraq', and Israeli attacks on Iran's ally Hezbollah?in Lebanon. Katz, a reporter for Israel's N12 TV News, said: "We were already gathered with the Prime Minister in a very strict forum in November and the Prime Minister (Benjamin Netanyahu), set the goal to eliminate Khamenei." He said that the timing had been?set at mid-2026. Katz explained that the plan was shared with Washington after the protests in Iran. Israel was concerned the clerical leaders of Iran might attack Israel and U.S. assets?in the Middle East. Israel has stated that its goal is to eliminate any existential threat posed by 'Iran's nuclear program and 'ballistic missile programme, and to bring about a regime change. Iran's ruling class has not yet shown any signs of stepping down. Reporting by Maayan Bell; Editing and proofreading by Alistair Bell
US Treasury could announce measures on the oil futures markets as energy prices increase
A senior White House official has said that the U.S. Treasury Department may announce measures to combat rising energy prices as early as Thursday. This could include action on the oil futures markets.
The global oil price has risen since the war with Iran began on Saturday as Middle East supplies are disrupted by the conflict.
JOHN PAISIE, PRESIDENT STRATAS ADVISORS
The U.S. government's stance on the issue could moderate oil prices, but the physical disruption of supply is still a problem, especially with the closing of the Strait of Hormuz. There is also no spare capacity in the Gulf.
Financial manipulation will not work if significant oil volumes are removed from the market. The traders will keep betting that the oil price will go up, because it should.
PHIL FLYNN SENIOR ANALYST AT PRICE FUTURES GROUPS
"This is a very novel, think-outside-the-box move. You can sell the front of the curve and buy the rear end using futures instead of physical barrels.
The?Treasury’s traditional role focuses primarily on fiscal policy, debt-management, and occasional intervention in currency markets via mechanisms such as the Exchange Stabilization Fund. But not in commodities such as oil.
TONY SYCAMORE IG MARKET ANALYST
"If they try to influence the futures themselves (deliverable contracts), it could create a temporary pause or scare some speculative investors, but I would be surprised if this moved the needle beyond a few days.
The oil market is global and driven by supply/demand fundamentals, especially now that the Strait of Hormuz is choked with tankers and they are trying to avoid the real threat from a?Iranian?drone and other strikes. "A bit of Treasury jawboning and symbolic action will not unlock or change this."
ED MEIR MAREX ANALYST
"I don't know what they have in mind but if they plan to sell futures in order to bring prices down, it is a huge gamble. It will also be a unprecedented intervention in the crude oil market.
The question that immediately comes to mind is "what happens if the prices continue to rise and go against a possible Treasury short position?" Will they use SPR oil as a delivery against their short, or will they continue to post a margin and ride their position? (Reporting and editing by Ni Williams in Bengaluru, Ashitha Shivaprasad and Anushree mukherjee from Bengaluru)
(source: Reuters)