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US Treasury could announce measures on the oil futures markets as energy prices increase

A senior White House official said that the U.S. Treasury Department may announce measures to combat rising energy costs as early as Thursday. These could include action on the oil futures markets.

The global oil price has risen since the war began with Iran on Saturday. This is because the conflict in the Middle East has disrupted supplies.

JOHN KILDUFF - PARTNER AT AGAIN CAPITALS

"Intervention of Treasury in this market would be unprecedented. It is not fair to compare the use of treasury futures in the GFC with treasury markets. The U.S. Treasury is a major player in the bond markets. I presume the goal in this case is to lower the futures prices. This would theoretically involve selling many futures on an open market to affect prices."

In the event that a second, acute supply disruption occurs, it would require a large amount of resources (capitalize the margin calls) to support this position. Treasury has 'unlimited resources, but.

JOHN PAISEY, PRESIDENT OF STRATAS ADVISERS

The U.S. government's stance on the issue could moderate oil prices, but the physical disruption of supply is still a problem, especially with the closing of the Strait of Hormuz. There is also no spare capacity in the Gulf.

Financial manipulation will not work if oil is kept off the market in large quantities. "Traders will keep betting that the oil price will go up - because it should."

PHIL FLYNN SENIOR ANALYST AT PRICE FUTURES GROUPS

"This is a very novel, think-outside-the-box move. You can sell the front of the curve to the market and then buy the back using futures instead of physical barrels.

The Treasury's traditional role is focused on fiscal policy, managing debt, and occasionally intervening in currency markets via mechanisms such as the Exchange Stabilization Fund. But not commodities like oil.

TONY SYCAMORE IG MARKET ANALYST

"If they try to influence the futures themselves (deliverable contracts), it could create a temporary pause or spook some speculative investors, but I would be surprised if this moved the needle beyond a few days.

The oil market is global and driven by supply/demand fundamentals, especially now that tanker traffic in the Strait has been clogged and there's the real threat of Iranian drones and other'strikes. "A bit of Treasury jawboning and symbolic action will not unlock or change this."

ED MEIR, MAREX ANALYST

"I don't know what they are thinking, but selling futures in order to lower prices is a huge gamble. It will also be a unprecedented intervention in the crude oil markets.

The question that immediately comes to mind is: "What happens if the prices continue to rise and go against an potential Treasury short? Will they use SPR oil as a delivery against their short, or will they continue to post margin to ride their position? Reporting by Pablo Sinha in Bengaluru, Anushree mukherjee, and Ashitha shivaprasad; editing by Nia Williams and Sumana nandy

(source: Reuters)