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Dalian iron ore reaches a 6-week low after betting on falling demand
Dalian iron ore prices fell further on Thursday to a six-week low, due to the expectation of a fall in demand from China, their biggest consumer. The January contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange ended daytime trading 0.89% lower, at 773.5 Yuan ($108.56), after hitting its lowest level since September 1, at 766.5 Yuan. As of 0809 GMT, the benchmark November iron ore price on the Singapore Exchange had slipped 0.02%, to $105.1 per ton, as hopes for further rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve helped to curb some losses. On Wednesday, the contract reached a low of almost $103.6 per ton. A weaker dollar makes commodities priced in dollars cheaper for buyers of other currencies. Steven Yu, senior analyst at Mysteel, says that the market is now focusing on the potential softening of fundamentals within the steel industry, amid signs of a de-escalation in trade tensions between China and the U.S. "While stocks did fall this week, it was better than expected. However, steel inventories are expected to rise in the coming weeks. This could reduce demand for ore," Yu said. The disappointing credit data from China has also raised concerns about the outlook for demand. China's new loans to banks in September were lower than expected, as policymakers struggled to reverse an extended property slump and curb overcapacity. The renewed U.S. China trade war, fueled by the tit for tat port fee, has overshadowed the hopes of talks between the sides. This has weighed on sentiment and driven down ore prices. The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a rise in most steel benchmarks. Wire rod, stainless steel and rebar all gained ground, but hot-rolled coils lost 0.19%. Coking coal, which is also used to make steel, increased by 3.36%. $1 = 7.1250 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Colleen howe and Harikrishnan Nair).
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US rate cuts bets continue to drive gold's record-breaking run.
Gold reached a new record high on Friday, as investors flocked to gold due to U.S. China trade tensions, the U.S. Government shutdown and prospects of rate cuts. As of 0810 GMT, spot gold was up by 0.6% to $4,233.39 an ounce. Early in the session, gold bullion reached a record-high of $4,241.77. It was the fifth straight session that bullion rose. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery rose 1.1% to $4,247.10. Gold prices, which are traditionally used as a safe-haven during periods of economic instability, have risen by 61% in the past year. This week, investors have been focused on the trade dispute between the two world's largest economies. On Wednesday, U.S. officials criticized China's expansion of export controls on rare earths as a danger to global supply chains. Investors are turning more to gold because of renewed trade frictions, said Nitesh Sha, commodities strategist with WisdomTree. He added that the gold breakout is also indicative of investor uncertainty over U.S. policies. Shah said that there is a high probability the metal will remain above $4,200. The gold rally is a result of a number of factors including the expectation of interest rate reductions, political and economic uncertainties, central bank purchases, and inflows to gold exchange traded funds. A Treasury official stated on Wednesday that the shutdown of the federal government, which has lasted for two weeks, could cost the U.S. economic system as much as 15 billion dollars a week due to lost production. Traders are pricing a 25-basis-point cut for October and another in December. They see 98% and 95% chance of each. Gold that does not yield is usually a good investment in an environment with low interest rates. Aakash Doshi is the head of State Street Investment Management's gold metals strategy. Silver spot fell by 0.6%, to $52.77 an ounce. It had hit a record high $53.60 per ounce on Tuesday. The rally in gold was mirrored and the tightness of the spot market supported this decline. Palladium increased 0.3% and platinum fell 0.4%. (Reporting and editing by Elaine Hardcastle in Bengaluru, Anushree Mukerjee)
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Sources say that India will reduce Middle East imports and buy more US LPG by 2026.
Sources with knowledge of the issue said that India intends to reduce imports of liquefied gas from the Middle East, as its state refiners seek to increase purchases from the U.S. This will help New Delhi in its efforts to secure a wider trade agreement with Washington. Sources who spoke under condition of anonymity said that the state refiners had already informed their traditional LPG suppliers in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates about the expected reduction in LPG sales. It is not clear how much LPG India will reduce from the Middle East, but a report in July stated that India plans to import about 10% of cooking gas from the U.S. starting in 2026. India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Washington in February and pledged to increase U.S. purchases of energy from $10 billion up to $25 billion. Both nations aim to reach $500 billion in bilateral trade in 2030. Indian officials are currently at Washington to engage in trade negotiations. India's trade deficit with the U.S. has been a major irritation for President Donald Trump. He has imposed a tariff of 50% on Indian goods, with 25 percent of that amount specifically levied as a penalty to New Delhi because of its purchases of Russian crude oil. Washington claims that Moscow uses petroleum revenues to fund its war on Ukraine. Trump said on Wednesday that Modi had assured him that India would stop purchasing Russian oil. Emails seeking comments from Indian state refiners, Middle Eastern producers (Kuwait, Qatar, UAE) and other Middle Eastern producers did not receive a response. Saudi Aramco declined comment. Sources said that LPG would be imported from the U.S. on a delivery basis. LPG, a mixture of butane and propane used for cooking fuel, is imported primarily by state retailers Indian Oil Corp. Bharat Petroleum Corp. and Hindustan Petroleum Corp. and sold to households at a subventioned price. Indian state refiners have jointly sought to purchase about 2,000,000 metric tons of U.S. LPG by 2026. According to government data, in 2024 the South Asian nation will import about 65% its 31 million tons of LPG. About 90% of the 20.4 million tonnes imported by refiners were under contracts with UAE, Qatar and Kuwait. India bought LPG from the United States this year. It took advantage of an arbitrage window, as China, embroiled in a trade war with Washington and a slowdown of purchases, was able to do so. As part of a larger trade agreement, India announced in April that it plans to eliminate import taxes on certain U.S. goods, including LPG. Sources said that India imported 8.1 millions tons of LPG in 2024 from the UAE, 5,000,000 tons from Qatar, 3,400,000 tons from Kuwait and 3.3,000,000 tons from Saudi Arabia. Also, the nation bought small amounts from Bahrain and Oman. (Reporting and editing by Shri Navaratnam; Additional reporting by Sarah El Safty)
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Shanghai copper prices rise as countries warn about low processing fees; trade problems persist
Shanghai copper rose on Thursday as investors focused their attention on the supply risks, with several countries warning of a tumbling fee for processing, and U.S. China trade tensions ahead of a high-stakes summit between leaders from both nations. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most active copper contract closed the daytime trading at 85,050 Yuan ($11,938.18) a metric ton. As of 0703 GMT, the benchmark three-month price for copper at the London Metal Exchange was down by 0.13%, to $10,627 per ton. Japan, Spain and South Korea expressed concern on Wednesday over the plummeting treatment and refining fees (TC/RCs) for copper. They said the decline in this key revenue source threatened the sustainability of the copper industry. Three copper importers have warned that a persistently low or even negative TC/RC could reduce refined production by eroding profits. The warning was issued to intensify concerns about the refined copper supply, due to falling TC/RCs. This has given some support to red metal. Investors also pay attention to the latest developments in trade tensions between the United States and China. The top U.S. officials including Trade Representative Jamieson Grer and Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent warned that China's controls on rare earth exports were a threat to supply chains. They urged Beijing not to continue with its current course and warned of further decoupling. Beijing, on the other hand, defended its measure by saying that it did not constitute a ban on exports. The remarks were the latest development in the lead-up to a possible meeting between U.S. president Donald Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping later this month, although the recent flare up of tensions has raised questions about whether or not the meeting will actually take place. Aluminium gained 0.48% among the SHFE base metals. Nickel closed at 0.21%. Lead rose by 0.26%. Tin increased by 0.34%. Zinc was the only one to fall by 0.25%. The LME also saw gains in aluminium, zinc, nickel, and lead. Lead rose by 0.1% while tin climbed 0.5%. $1 = 7.1242 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich and Ronojoy Mazumdar;
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India's MRPL hopes to continue buying Russian oil despite US pressure
Mangalore Refineries and Petrochemicals in India is looking for alternative oil sources that are sold at a discounted price, while still hoping to buy Russian oil. This was the statement made by its managing director Mundkur S. Kamath on Wednesday. Donald Trump said on Wednesday that Prime Minister Narendra modi assured him that India would stop purchasing oil from Russia. Russia is India's largest source of oil imports. Washington hopes to end the war in Ukraine by reducing revenue going to Moscow. Indian refiners are taking advantage of the reduced prices Russia is forced to accept after sanctions were imposed by the U.S., the European Union and Russia in 2022. He said that Russian oil accounted between 35 and 40% of MRPL’s total oil imports during the third quarter. MRPL operates a refinery that produces 300,000 barrels of oil per day in the southern state Karnataka. Kamath, an analyst on a phone call, said that "we have already begun looking at other crudes available on discount through our own methods of sourcing oil". He added that the government had maintained the position that India would continue to favor the lowest-cost sources. "We are confident it will continue soon," he said in reference to Russian oil imports. He said that his company will look to buy U.S. crude oil but it has not been appealing in previous quarters. He said: "And I'm confident on an economic level that we'll be able sail through."
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Gold extends its record high due to trade anxiety, as Asia stocks rally with Wall Street
Stocks were up across Asia on Thursday. The chip sector was buoyant after a strong overnight rally by U.S. counterparts, and the start of Wall Street's earnings period also lifted the mood. Meanwhile, trade tensions between Beijing & Washington grew and the dollar was undercut. After U.S. president Donald Trump announced that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi pledged to stop purchasing oil from Russia - which supplies around one-third its imports - the price of crude oil soared from a five-month low. Nikkei gained 1.2% in Japan, as shares related to chip and artificial intelligence boosted the index. The index gained momentum after Taiwanese semiconductor maker TSMC announced record earnings. Taiwanese shares were already closed when TSMC announced its announcement. The day ended with a 1.4% gain and a new record. South Korea's KOSPI rose 2.2%, reaching a new record high after the country's top presidential adviser expressed optimism about the ongoing negotiations to finalise the U.S. trade agreement. Australia's equity index also reached a new record high as poor jobs data increased the likelihood of central bank easing. In a volatile session, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong fell by 0.7% while blue chips on the mainland were flat. Investors pondered what the future of trade relations with the U.S. would be. The European stock futures point to a 0.3% decline. The U.S. Stock Futures are flat after overnight gains of 0.4% for the S&P500 and 0.6% for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index soared 3%. Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone, stated that he still believes the path of least opposition in the long-term is a positive one. "I'd say that the intraday price movement is largely noise, even though conditions are choppy." DOLLAR DIP - GOLD SURGE CONTINUES Stock investors were captivated by the optimism over AI and the signs of economic strength in the U.S. banks' earnings, despite Trump declaring late Wednesday that "the U.S. was engaged in a trade conflict with China", confirming what the markets already believed based on recent comments made from both sides. Gold reached a record $4,241.77 an ounce in the last session after rising by 0.8%. The dollar fell for the third consecutive session, falling 0.1% against a basket major counterparts. The pair fell as much as 0.4%, to 150.51yen. This brought the psychologically important 150-yen line into focus. However, the pair recovered to remain flat before the opening of European markets. This retracement was prompted by the news that Takaichi, the leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, had been in discussions with the Japan Innovation Party (a right-leaning opposition party) for a partnership to secure enough votes in parliament to win the prime ministership in an upcoming vote. The euro rose by 0.1%, to $1.1657. Sterling increased by 0.1%, to $1.3412. The signs of a calming of trade tensions were encouraging. U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent said that an extension of current tariff reprieve could be possible and that Trump expected to meet Chinese Leader Xi Jinping later this month in South Korea. The brinkmanship between China and the U.S. hasn't yet dissipated, said Kyle Rodda senior financial market analyst at Capital.com. It will only calm down when China backs off its threat to restrict rare earth exports, and the U.S. reverses the tariff increase scheduled for November 1 to 100%. Markets will be apprehensive until then." Trump's trade maneuvers have also helped oil prices rise from five-month lows. Brent crude futures are up 0.8% to $62.41 per barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures are up 0.9% at $58.77. The U.S. President said on Wednesday that India will stop buying oil from Russia, its largest supplier. Washington would then try to convince China to follow suit as it intensifies its efforts to cut Moscow's revenue and to pressure it to negotiate an agreement in Ukraine.
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Sources say Indian refiners are preparing to reduce their Russian oil imports
Three sources with knowledge of the situation said that some Indian refiners were preparing to reduce their Russian oil imports. The U.S. was pressuring New Delhi, to stop purchasing Russian crude in order to end the conflict in Ukraine. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said on Wednesday that Prime Minister Narendra modi assured him that India would stop purchasing oil from Russia - its main source of oil imports. India's main goal, it said on Thursday, was to secure energy supply and maintain stable prices. In a volatile energy market, it has always been our priority to protect the Indian consumer's interests. This is the only objective that guides our import policies," said a statement from the Foreign Ministry. The statement does not refer to Trump’s comments about India's purchase of Russian oil. TRADING OFF STEEP TARIFFS Indian officials are currently in Washington to hold trade talks. The U.S. has doubled the tariffs on Indian products to put pressure on New Delhi to cut down its Russian oil imports. U.S. negotiators said that curbing these purchases was crucial for reducing India’s tariff rate and achieving a trade agreement. India and China have become the top two buyers of Russian crude oil by sea. They are taking advantage of the reduced prices that Russia is forced to accept because European buyers refused to buy and after the U.S., the European Union and other countries imposed sanctions against Moscow in February 2022 for its invasion of Ukraine. "I was not happy with India buying oil and he (Modi), assured me today they would not be purchasing oil from Russia," Trump said to reporters at a White House function on Wednesday. India's Foreign Ministry said that it is discussing deeper energy cooperation with the United States. The current Administration has expressed interest in enhancing energy cooperation with India. In a statement, Randhir Jaiswal, spokesperson for the foreign ministry, said that discussions are underway. Sources claim that Indian refiners haven't been informed formally by the Indian government of the decision to stop buying Russian oil. The sources declined to give their names as they were not authorized to speak with the media. Sources said that it would be hard to stop buying Russian crude oil immediately, as switching to other crudes could cause global oil prices to spike and even threaten inflation. India imported 1,75 million barrels of Russian crude per day in April-September, the first six month of the fiscal year. Its share of India's total imports of oil fell to 36% from 40% a year ago, according to government data. India's crude oil imports from the United States increased 6.8% in a year, to 213,000 barrels per day (bpd), or 4.3% of total imports. Data showed that the Middle Eastern oil share in the six-month period leading up to September 2025 increased from 42% to 45%.
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Gold prices continue record rally due to US-China tensions and rate-cut betting
Gold prices reached a record-high on Thursday. They climbed for the fifth consecutive session as investors increased their safe-haven wagers amid tensions in trade between the two world's largest economies, the U.S. government shutdown, and the possibility of U.S. interest rate cuts. As of 0611 GMT, spot gold was up by 0.2%, at $4,217.39 an ounce. Bullion touched a new record high earlier in the session of $4,241.77. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery were up 0.7% to $4,232.0. U.S. officials criticised China on Wednesday for its expanded controls on rare-earths, calling them a threat to the global supply chain. They also signalled potential retaliatory actions, as both countries had introduced reciprocal fees at ports on their ships on Tuesday. "The Fed's comments that they are more likely to cut rates in the future is encouraging, and Donald Trump calling this a trade conflict is clearly providing gold with a strong boost," said OANDA Senior Analyst Kyle Rodda. Bessent said that Washington could take further measures, such as export controls, should Beijing continue. He also added that Washington was ready to impose tariffs on China for its purchases of Russian crude oil as long as European allies joined him. A Treasury official stated on Wednesday that the two-week federal government shutdown could cost the U.S. economic system as much as 15 billion dollars a week due to lost production. Investors expect a rate cut of 25 basis points at the Federal Reserve meeting this month, followed by another one in December. In a low interest-rate environment, non-yielding, or "non-yielding" gold tends to perform well. This is due to a variety of factors including geopolitical risk, bets on rate cuts, central bank purchases, de-dollarization and strong inflows into exchange-traded gold funds. ANZ expects the gold price to reach $4400 per ounce before year's end. The SPDR Gold Trust is the largest gold-backed ETF. Its holdings increased to 1,022.60 tonnes on Wednesday. This was their highest level since July 2022. Silver spot fell by 0.5%, to $52.78 an ounce. It had previously reached a record of $53.60 per ounce on Tuesday. This was due to the gold rally and a squeeze in the short market. Palladium dropped 0.3%, to $1,531.82, while platinum gained 0.3%, to $1.658.10. (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich, Sherry Jacob Phillips, and Ishaan arora in Bengaluru)
Ardian, a private equity firm, raises $20 billion to fund infrastructure in Europe
Ardian, a French private equity company, announced on Thursday that it had raised a record-breaking $20 billion for the next-generation fund, which is dedicated to Europe's energy, transport, and digital connectivity. This shows heightened investor interest in critical infrastructure.
As U.S. president Donald Trump changes global trade and alliance policies, Europe seeks private investment in order to pursue new avenues of economic growth, and strengthen its independence, particularly with regards to infrastructure, defence, and energy.
Mathias Burghardt, CEO of Ardian France, told journalists that the volatility is high and events are surprising and violent. This has led to investors feeling they have rediscovered diversification.
International BACKING
Burghardt stated that Ardian Infrastructure Fund VI targets physical and virtual connectivity to attract growing investments from United States.
This fund is the largest infrastructure platform of Ardian Investments, backed up by 229 investors. It represents a 90 percent increase over Ardian Infrastructure V.
Ardian stated that 32% of the investments made in the fund came from investors from Asia-Pacific.
The fund's fundraising follows the closing of Sweden's EQT Infrastructure VI Fund at 21.5 billion Euros earlier this year. This was 35% higher than its predecessor. Reporting by Alessandro Parodi. (Editing by Mathieu rosemain and Mark Potter.)
(source: Reuters)