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Trump's tariffs are roiling markets, and oil stocks will be closer in 2025.

In 2025, a positive correlation has emerged between the global benchmark Brent crude oil and U.S. stocks. This reflects concern over the slowing U.S. economy and its impact from President Donald Trump's tariff wars.

Money managers are faced with a dilemma when asset classes move in tandem. Some ideas are challenging, such as commodities being a good diversifier of portfolios because they are less likely than stocks to drop at the same moment. Investors are looking for new strategies in the current climate of widespread growth concerns.

Since Trump's inauguration on January 20, crude oil and U.S. stock prices have moved in lockstep as concerns about the outlook of the global economy have shaken sentiment across the markets.

The correlation of two assets over a month - a measure that shows how closely two assets follow each other, where -1.0 indicates no correlation and 1.0 indicates a near perfect correlation - increased to 0.9 in march.

Oil and equity prices are more closely correlated because oil is not moving because of inflation but growth. This was said by Shaniel Ramjee of Pictet Asset Management, London's co-head of Multi-asset Funds.

The market is most concerned about growth. Tariffs may increase inflation in the short term, but this correlation is driven by growth.

Trump announced on Wednesday that he will temporarily lower the tariffs he just imposed against dozens of nations, while increasing pressure on China. This sent stocks and oil prices higher. The price of oil fell again on Thursday, just before the U.S. Stock Market opened.

Oil broker PVM's Tamas Varga said that oil and equity tend to correlate highly when there is concern about an economic slowdown.

The chaotic U.S. policymaking, which is currently negative, has a direct impact on the demand prospects and the outlook for stocks.

It is common to see a positive correlation between oil prices and stock market values. Brent and S&P500 were highly correlated during the majority of the period between June-August last year.

Tim Evans, of advisory firm Evans on Energy, said that trading the correlation posed at least two challenges - uncertainty about how long it would last and if it was easier to predict the direction of either the S&P 500 index or oil price.

He said that those who have a positive view of the S&P 500 might be better off trading it than oil.

CUTTING OIL INVESTIMENT

Some fund managers are reducing their investments in crude oil futures and preferring to invest in other commodities, such as gold. The benchmark gold contract reached a record-high last week.

"We do not have a positive outlook on oil." Tariffs have a direct impact on the demand picture," stated Luc Filip of SYZ Private Banking, Geneva.

Antonio Cavarero is the head of investment at Generali Asset Management and he agrees.

Cavarero stated that "oil is more vulnerable to a possible softening in the economic cycle." In this moment, you should be looking for areas of the market where policymakers' decisions are not as unpredictable.

Ramjee, of Pictet Asset Management, said that the correlation between oil and stocks could be weaker if the U.S. administration does not go as far with its tariff threats.

He said that if the tariffs were less impactful, or scaled back more, there would be a decoupling. "People will buy oil to benefit from the improved growth picture. But we haven't seen this yet. There's still a possibility of a negative growth surprise."

He has built a large portfolio of gold and gold mining companies to diversify the funds away from markets that are more closely correlated. Due to the volatility of markets, he is also trading less and taking on smaller positions.

(source: Reuters)