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Citi reduces its 0-3 months Brent forecast to $60/barrel due to tariff shock

Citi Research lowered their 0-3 months Brent price forecast on Monday to $60 per barrel. They also lowered their 0-3 months copper and aluminum price forecasts by $8,000 per metric tonne and $2,200 for each metric tonne, respectively, due to the recent tariff announcements.

Donald Trump, the president of the United States, imposed a 10% tariff on all imports into the U.S., and increased duties on dozens more countries, including many of the United States biggest trading partners. China responded by imposing additional tariffs of 34% on all U.S. products from April 10, 2018.

Base metals in London continued to decline amid growing recession fears, while oil prices dropped nearly 4% Monday due to an escalating war of words.

In a note, the bank stated that the physical impact of tariffs would be doubly negative as pre-buying goods and commodities and stockpiling them will completely reverse following the tightening of commodity markets in recent months.

Analysts at Citi stated that any rallies this coming week on the back of minor headlines about trade deals or delays in the imposition April 9 tariffs could provide opportunities to sell rallys. They also added that "U.S. gold and gas should outperform in the near term."

(source: Reuters)