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Dollar and stocks are set to rise weekly on Trump's tariff reversal
The dollar rose for the first time in over a month on Friday, as investors welcomed the apparent softening of White House's stance towards China despite the lack of any detente. Alphabet, the parent company of Google, also beat expectations for profit and reaffirmed AI expenditure targets. This pushed its shares up by nearly 5% after-hours and pulled along with peers and S&P futures which rose by 0.5%. Wall Street investors shrugged off mixed corporate results overnight and the S&P 500 was up 2%. The dollar has been weakened by a series of volatile events, including tariff announcements and reversals, as well as a flight from U.S. assets. However, the dollar has stabilized around 143 Japanese yen per $1.1350, with dollar sales in Asia easing on Friday. In a client note, ING currency analyst Francesco Pesole said that there is a sense among market participants that they can now impose a more friendly stance from the U.S. Government. Investors will seek confirmation of a more optimistic view on U.S. Assets to justify further dollar gains. The U.S. changed its tone this week and declared that the situation was unsustainable. China has, however, denied that it has held any trade talks with Washington despite the comments of U.S. president Donald Trump to the contrary. It has also warned other countries not to strike deals with the U.S. at China's cost. Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategies at Jefferies, said: "The equity recovery in the last two days is a direct result of Donald Trump’s apparent U-turn on China tariffs. This confirms that the U.S. doesn't have the cards in this poker game." The Nikkei 225 index rose 1.4% in Japan on Friday. It has recovered all of its losses following Trump's announcement on April 2, of the highest U.S. Tariffs in 100 years. Trump suspended most of these levies, with the exception of China and the 10% baseline tariff. The tech shares were the biggest gainers, with Nidec shares up 11% after it predicted a record profit for the year and Nissan shares jumping 2% on investors' bets that the worst is over since the automaker had forecasted a record loss. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong rose by 0.9%, and the Shanghai Composite and blue-chip CSI300 on mainland China also saw small gains. The U.S. Dollar Index was up 0.4% this week to 99.619. The markets in Australia and New Zealand closed due to a public holiday. The markets were showing signs of unease, but this may not last long. Gold was steady at $3,349 per ounce, and analysts from Philip Securities in Singapore noted that the Gold/S&P500 ratio, which is a measure of investor's gloom, had reached its highest level since the bear market driven by the pandemic of 2020. Procter & Gamble cut their forecasts or canceled them due to the increased uncertainty of consumers. The U.S. Treasury Market is still under pressure. It was heavily sold as Trump's tariffs rattled confidence in U.S. assets and leadership. On Friday, 10-year yields were at 4.3168%.
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Sources: State Department revamps energy bureau and eliminates climate office
Four sources who are familiar with the notification said that the Trump administration terminated federal employees responsible for U.S. climate policy, climate aid and global climate policy as part of a reorganization at the State Department. Career employees at the Office of Global Change in the State Department’s Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs played a leading role in U.S. negotiation under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The office's officials also represented the United States in the International Civil Aviation Organization, the International Maritime Organization and their respective sectors of commercial aviation and shipping. The firings come after Donald Trump announced that the United States would withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, as well IMO negotiations on decarbonization measures in order to allow the global shipping industry reach net-zero emission levels by "around 2020". The United States is a member of the ICAO and has agreed to take part in its Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation. (CORSIA), and to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. Trump's administration has, however, recently opposed ICAO’s decision to increase sustainable aviation fuel. It is unclear how or if America will continue to take part in these international accords, or whether certain office functions will be merged into other bureaus. The Trump administration is aggressively reversing existing U.S. Climate Policy and has dismantled U.S. Agency for International Development. Requests for comments from the State Department were not answered. According to documents internal and another source with knowledge of the situation, there are also changes in the works at the Bureau of Energy Resources of the State. The bureau was established during the Obama administration and helped to gather allies and partners in support of sanctions against Iran's oil exports. The bureau, which employs about 80 people, has been focusing on the development of alternative minerals, oil, and gas and weaning countries away from Russian fossil fuels in recent years. According to internal documents, the Bureau of Energy Resources will be absorbed by the Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs. This is "to ensure that a laser-like concentration on expanding and exporting American Energy." Sources familiar with the situation say that many employees working on other issues than critical minerals are expecting to be laid off within days. (Reporting and editing by Tom Hogue; Humeyra Pauk, Valerie Volcovici; Timothy Gardner).
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Isaiah Salinda and Kevin Velo set a new record of 58 in the Zurich Classic
Isaiah Salinda, Kevin Velo and their 14-under par 58 on Thursday took the lead in the first round of the Zurich Classic New Orleans at TPC Louisiana. Salinda, Velo and their best-ball format were 12 under par through the first 11 holes - an eagle for Salinda on the par-5 7th and all the other birdies - before slowing down. The team ended with four pars, and one birdie on the last five holes. Salinda is ranked No. 163 in the Official World Golf Ranking. Velo is ranked No. Both players have never won on the PGA Tour. Salinda Velo and Nicolai Hojgaard of Denmark, who shot a 13-under 59, are only one-shot ahead. The brothers did not make a single bogey. Collin Morikawa, Kurt Kitayama and the Australian Cam Davis are tied at 11-under 61 with Paul Peterson of Germany and Thomas Rosenmueller and Norwegian Kris Ventura. Rory McIlroy from Northern Ireland and Shane Lowry from Ireland both opened with a 64 at 8-under. McIlroy is playing in his first tournament after winning the Masters, completing his career Grand Slam. On Friday, the tournament will switch to foursomes (alternate shots). After the 36-hole cut is made, four-ball will play on Saturday followed by foursomes on Sun. Field Level Media
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Weekly oil prices drop on the possibility of more global supply
Oil prices rose on Friday, but are still on course for a loss of a week's worth as a potential OPEC+ production increase and a ceasefire in the Russia/Ukraine conflict could raise supply while at the same time contradictory U.S. Tariff signals limit demand. Brent crude futures rose 5 cents, to $66.60 per barrel at 0001 GMT. They are on course to drop 2% this week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), which is a blend of West Texas and Texas, rose 6 cents a barrel to $62.85, but it was expected to fall 2.9% this week. In an interview with CBS News, Russian Foreign minister Sergey Lavrov stated that the United States and Russia were moving in the right directions to end the conflict in Ukraine. However, some specific aspects of a deal still need to be agreed. Stopping the war in Ukraine by Russia and easing sanctions could lead to more Russian oil reaching global markets. Russia is a member of OPEC+, which includes the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. It is also one of the largest oil producers in the world, along with the U.S. Trump criticised Vladimir Putin on Thursday after Russia bombarded Kyiv overnight with missiles and drones, saying, "Vladimir! STOP!" Earlier this week, it was reported that several OPEC+ member countries had also suggested the group increase oil production for a second consecutive month in June. Abbas Araqchi, the Iranian foreign minister, said on Thursday that he is ready to travel to Europe to discuss Tehran's nuclear programme. If successful talks are held with Europe and the U.S., sanctions against Iranian oil exports will likely be lifted. Iran is OPEC's third largest oil producer, behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Even with the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China, the two world's largest oil consumers, the outlook for demand remains cloudy. Due to the higher costs resulting from the trade conflict, businesses are raising prices and reducing financial guidance. This has also caused global supply chains to be tense and prompted fears of an economic slowdown in which oil demand could be affected.
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Brazilian miner Vale posts 17% drop in Q1 net profit
The Brazilian miner Vale announced on Thursday that its net profit for the first quarter of 2014 was down 17% from a year ago, due to lower iron ore costs. Vale, the world's largest iron ore producer, reported a net profit of $1.39 billion for the three months ending in March. Analysts polled by LSEG expected a profit of $1.68 billion. Vale's earnings report stated that lower iron ore costs had a negative impact on its results. However, this was offset in part by the company's efforts to reduce the cost of iron ore production and the effects of the Brazilian real appreciating against the U.S. Dollar. The adjusted core profit, which is based on earnings before taxes, depreciation, and interest, was $3.12 billion. This represents a 9% decline from the previous year and comes close to analysts' expectations of $3.16 billion. Vale's output and sales report, released last week, showed a net revenue of $8.12bn for the third quarter, down 4% on an annual basis and below analysts' estimates of $8.03bn. Reporting by Marta Nogueira from Rio de Janeiro, and Andre Romani from Sao Paulo. Editing by Brendan O'Boyle.
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Budget watchdog: UK water crisis partly blamed on regulators
A budget watchdog in Britain said that the regulators had failed to invest enough in the water industry. This has led to an environmental crisis. The public is angry with water companies in England, Wales and Scotland over their rising bills. This comes after sewage spills polluted Britain's rivers in the last few years due to aging pipes and overcrowded treatment plants. After the National Audit Office report was released, Geoffrey Clifton Brown, Chair of the Committee of Public Accounts said: "The government's failure in regulating this sector properly is now falling on the bill-payers who are left to pay the tab." The average household water bill in England and Wales is expected to increase by 26% this year. According to the NAO, water sector requires "unprecedented investment" in order to meet the challenges it faces, including a weakened financial performance, a declining public trust, and a falling investor confidence. In October, as Britain's largest water provider, Thames Water, was on the verge of financial collapse the government began a review of water industry. The report is expected in June. The government's Environment Department (DEFRA), in response to the NAO Report, said that new laws allowing water managers to be criminally charged if they violate environmental rules will help improve the industry. A Defra spokeswoman said that "the government has taken immediate action to fix water industry - however, change will not occur overnight." The NAO stated that Britain must build nine new reservoirs and invest an estimated 47 billion pounds ($62.52 million) in water infrastructure over the next five-year period. The report highlighted that there was no national plan for water and that regulators, Ofwat and the Environment Agency as well as the Drinking Water Inspectorate did not understand the state of infrastructure. The report also criticised the way Ofwat sets prices for water consumers. It said it was difficult to understand for investors, and questioned whether its review process was suitable given that major infrastructure projects require a long-term approach. ($1 = 0.7517 pound) (Reporting and editing by Sharon Singleton; Sarah Young)
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Eastman Chemical cuts spending in the face of market uncertainty and forecasts a quarterly profit that is below expectations
Eastman Chemical said Thursday that it will cut expenses to respond to the market volatility caused by President Donald Trump's tariff plans. In extended trading, shares of the company fell 3.5% to $78.00. Chemical companies are facing a weak market and high input prices, especially in Europe where the regulatory environment is challenging. This has forced them to rethink strategies. Trump's unpredictable trade policies have added to the uncertainty in the chemical industry. On Thursday, Dow Jones said that it expected earnings to be further pressured due to the persistent uncertainty. LSEG data shows that the company expects its second-quarter adjusted profits to range between $1.70 to $1.90 per common share. This is below Wall Street's expectations of $2.18. Eastman said that it would also increase its cost-reduction target to $75 million net of inflation and reduce capital expenditures for 2025 to $550 million, as opposed to its previous forecast of $850 million. The chemical company beat its first-quarter profit expectations, thanks to a strong performance at Kingsport and increased selling prices for its products. Eastman Kingsport in Tennessee uses advanced technology to recycle plastic waste into monomers that can be used to create new plastic products. The facility can recycle approximately 110,000 metric tonnes annually. According to LSEG data, the company reported a profit adjusted of $1.91 for the quarter ending March 31 compared with an average analyst estimate of $1.89.
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Stocks rise with tech shares, but dollar falls after recent gains
The major stock indexes rose Thursday as investors waited for further developments in U.S. China trade conflict. Meanwhile, the dollar fell after recent gains. The S&P 500 Technology sector rose 3.5% in one day, which is the highest of any sector within the benchmark index. After-hours trades for Alphabet, the parent company of Google, saw shares rise more than 3% following its release of first-quarter earnings. These results included earnings that exceeded analysts' expectations. The stock closed the regular session with a 2.5% gain. This earnings season will still bring us more results from the top U.S. technology companies. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that on Thursday trade talks were underway between the U.S.A. and China. This was in response to Chinese claims that there had been no discussion about easing the ongoing trade conflict. Beijing said that earlier, the U.S. would have to remove "all unilateral tariff measures" against China if they "truly wanted" the solution of the trade dispute. On Wednesday, the White House signaled that it would be open to reducing tariffs against China. Trump's tariff plan has caused a lot of volatility in the markets over the past few weeks. Thomas Martin, Senior Portfolio Manager at GLOBALT Atlanta said: "There is still a great deal of volatility. But add to that a market that has been oversold in virtually every measure." The first-quarter earnings report has been mixed. Businesses across industries have said they are increasing prices and are uncertain about the future because of Trump's policies and trade war. Unilever, the maker of Dove soap, pointed to a deteriorating consumer confidence in the United States. Meanwhile shares of International Business Machines plummeted after the company announced that 15 of its government contract were shelved as part of a cost-cutting initiative by the Trump Administration. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 486.63 points or 1.23% to 40,093.40. The S&P 500 increased 108.91 or 2.03% to 5,484.77. And the Nasdaq Composite increased 457.99 or 2.74% to 17,166.04. The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 11.65 points or 1.44% to 819.86. The pan-European STOXX 600 closed at 0.36%. Japan's Nikkei rose 0.5%. Ryosei Acazawa, the Japanese tariff negotiator, was reportedly making final preparations to travel to the United States on April 30 for a second round with his counterpart. The economic data released on Thursday revealed, among other things that the number of Americans who filed new claims for unemployment benefits increased marginally in the last week. This suggests the labor market is still resilient. Treasury yields in the United States fell amid expectations of lower tariffs than expected. Investors weighed up the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates for the first time in June. Beth Hammack, President of the Fed Bank of Cleveland, called on Thursday for patience in monetary policy, given the high level of uncertainty. However, she did not exclude a rate cut by June depending on economic indicators. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes dropped 7.8 basis points from 4.387% to 4.309% late Wednesday. In the past week, Trump made verbal criticisms of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and then withdrew calls for his resignation. The Treasury Department issued the final coupon debt of the week, $44 billion worth of seven-year notes on Thursday. The Tuesday two-year auction was a soft one, but the Wednesday five-year sale saw a good response. The dollar weakened against major currencies. The dollar was down 0.63% to $1.1383. The dollar fell 0.58% against the Japanese yen to 142.61. The dollar rose on Wednesday but has been one of the worst victims of Trump's tariffs. It was expected to decline for the entire month. Gold prices rose after falling by more than 3% the previous session. Spot gold increased 1.4% to $3333.90 per ounce. Investors also weighed the weaker U.S. Dollar when determining oil prices. Brent crude futures increased 43 cents or 0.7% to settle at $66.55 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), which settled at $62.75, rose by 52 cents or 0.8%.
Stocks fall, gold reaches record levels as tariffs fuel recession fears
On Monday, global equity markets fell and gold reached a new record high after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that tariffs would cover virtually all countries. This stoked fears of a global economic recession due to a trade war.
Trump's comments on Air Force One to reporters seemed to put an end to hopes that the levies could be restricted to a small group of countries who have the largest trade imbalances.
Trump will receive recommendations for tariffs on Tuesday, and then announce the initial level on Wednesday. The auto tariffs are announced the next day.
All three major Wall Street indexes are trading lower. Losses in technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary stocks lead the way. Gains were made by energy, consumer staples and utilities stocks.
George Lagarias is the chief economist of Forvis Mazars. He said, "What Trump's administration has shown so far is you shouldn't expect a consistent strategy."
This is what most scares markets. Markets hate uncertainty and inconsistency.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.11% to 41.538.47. The S&P 500 declined 0.90% at 5,530.99. And the Nasdaq Composite was down 2.00% at 16,976.48.
The STOXX 600 in Europe fell by 1.40%, its lowest level in nearly eight weeks. Major indexes in Frankfurt and London also fell between 1.7 and 2 percent. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell 1.9%.
Goldman Sachs analysts now see 35% of the chance that the U.S. will enter a recession. This is up from 20%. They expect Trump to announce on April 2 reciprocal tariffs averaging 15% for all U.S. trade partners.
The data released on Friday highlighted the risks, as core inflation, a key indicator of inflation in general rose more than anticipated in February and consumer spending was disappointing.
The March payrolls report, due Friday, is now even more important. Any result below the expected 140,000 increase will only add to the recession fears.
Talley Leger is the chief market strategist of The Wealth Consulting Group, a New Jersey-based firm.
In a slowing environment of growth, earnings will decelerate or even crash in a recession. This is another major fear on the market. "On the other hand, spiraling inflation would squeeze stock prices on the valuation channel."
Gold prices continued their record-breaking run and reached a new high of $3128.06 Gold futures in the United States rose 1.3% to $3,126.60 per ounce. Spot gold increased 1.18%, reaching $3,120.27.
On the currency markets, the dollar fell against the Japanese yen and rose against the euro due to the uncertainty surrounding tariffs.
The dollar fell 0.13% against the Japanese yen to 149.63. The euro fell 0.27% to $1.0799. The dollar gained 0.48% against the Swiss Franc to 0.885 Franc.
The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies) rose by 0.22%.
Bond investors appeared to be betting that the Fed will cut rates this year by 80 basis points due to the slowdown of the U.S. economy.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes dropped 3.5 basis points, to 4.219%. The yield on the benchmark German Bunds 10-year fell by 2.6 basis points in Europe to 2.706%.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Friday speech, which follows a number of Fed speakers during this week, could provide a clearer picture on the outlook for interest rates.
Brent oil rose by 1.41%, to $74.67 per barrel. U.S. crude gained 2.34%, to $70.99 a barrel. Trump also threatened to impose secondary tariffs on Russian oil buyers if he believed that Moscow was blocking his efforts to end Ukraine's war. Reporting by Chibuike OGOH in New York, Editing by Shri Navaratnam and Lincoln Feast; Aidan Lewis, Jan Harvey, Joe Bavier and Lincoln Feast
(source: Reuters)