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Gold reaches record highs as tariff fears boost safe-haven demand
Gold's record-breaking run reached another high on Tuesday. Investors are bracing for President Donald Trump to announce reciprocal tariffs. Gold spot was up 0.3% to $3,131.56 per ounce, at 0914 GMT. It had earlier reached a record-high of $3,148.88. U.S. Gold Futures rose 0.3% to $3,159.10. "Trump's tariff remarks and his increasingly volatile position on Russia's conflict against Ukraine are proving to be the perfect chaos for a new record gold price," surpassing the COVID Pandemic of five years ago. Adrian Ash, the head of research at BullionVault, an online marketplace, confirmed this. Trump announced Sunday that his reciprocal tariffs, which will be announced Wednesday, would apply to all countries and not just a few. Goldman Sachs raised the likelihood of a U.S. economic recession from 20% to 35% on Monday and said that it expects more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve as Trump's Tariffs shake the global economy. This year, gold, which is traditionally seen as an insurance against inflation and uncertainty, has increased by more than 15 percent. In a low-interest rate environment, non-yielding gold tends to perform well. The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's policy decisions on April 2, as there are many economic indicators that may impact them. If rate reductions are confirmed, it will provide further support to gold's upward trend, said Alexander Zumpfe a precious metals dealer at Heraeus Metals Germany. Bullion's rally has been boosted by the strong demand of central banks and geopolitical unrest in Europe and the Middle East, as well as increased flows into exchange-traded gold funds. Gold closed its strongest quarter in 1986 and rose over $3,100/oz. This is one of the biggest upswings ever seen in the history of precious metals. Investors will also be watching the U.S. data on job openings on Tuesday, and Friday's non-farm payrolls in the U.S. Silver remained at $34.06 per ounce. Platinum fell by 0.4% to $988.35 and palladium rose 0.3% to $985.86.
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Sources: Mercuria's former Beijing head joins China's Rongsheng
According to internal memos and sources, the former head of Mercuria's Beijing office will join China's largest oil refining group Rongsheng Holdings as a senior executive. Li Xinhua will assist Xiang Jingjiong as president of Rongsheng Holdings. Li will be responsible for Rongsheng’s coal, petrochemical and oil trading businesses in Singapore, according to sources who declined to name themselves as the move had not yet been announced. Rongsheng has not yet commented. Li has been with Mercuria in Geneva for 17 years, one of the top four commodities and energy traders on the planet. Li's new role is to grow and manage Rongsheng’s expanding business. Two sources have described a period of challenges including an overcapacity of China's refinery industry, a lacklustre petrochemicals global market, and geopolitical uncertainties. Rongsheng Singapore's trading desk is populated with former Chinese state oil traders. The firm also recently hired an Ex-PetroChina trader as the head of its Canadian crude oil trading. Li, who joined Mercuria from the Chinese state-run Sinochem in 2008, was instrumental in expanding its China oil business. This included dealing with independent refineries in China. "During his tenure at Xinhua, he has played a major role in the growth and transformation of the company." Mercuria's memo stated that he actively developed the independent refiners market in Shandong. This laid a solid basis for the oil trading business of the company. Li Shuirong's son-in law, Xiang is Li Shuirong's new boss. Li Shuirong was the founder and chairman of Rongsheng, which he built from a small factory in the 1980s. Rongsheng controls China’s largest private refiner Zhejiang Petrochemical Corp. It was also the first Chinese refiner to receive a significant investment from Saudi Aramco. Mercuria memo stated that Wang Tiezheng will replace Li as the head of Mercuria Beijing. Wang is a senior iron-ore trader. Mercuria has not responded to requests for comment. Siyi Liu contributed additional reporting from Singapore. Tony Munroe, Mark Potter and Tony Munroe edited the article.
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CNPC's think tank predicts that China's oil demand will increase by 1.1% by 2025.
China's oil demand will increase by 1.1% to 765 millions metric tons in 2025, a think-tank affiliated with the state energy company China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) announced on Tuesday. This is due to a better than expected growth of the economy and an increasing demand for petrochemicals. According to Wu Mouyuan of the CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute, China's plastic consumption per capita is still around 60% less than that of developed nations. Wu said that China's booming electric vehicles (EV) sector will also drive the consumption of plastics. Plastics are used more in EVs than gasoline vehicles. Wu stated that the use of transportation fuels has reached its peak. He said that alternative energy sources would grow faster than was previously believed, and electric vehicles and LNG trucks will be owned by more people than they are now. By 2030, the rates of ownership for both these technologies will rise from less than 10% today to over 30% and 15% respectively. According to CNPC, Brent oil prices are expected to fall from $79 per barrel in 2024 to a range between $65 and $75 this year due to a slowdown in the global economy. Brent will be between $60 and $70 in the base scenario from 2026 until 2030. The policies of U.S. president Donald Trump could have a major impact on the global market and tighten supply. The Trump factor is the biggest uncertainty on the oil market, Wu said. He cited Trump's harsher sanctions against Iran and his threat of 25% tariffs for countries that buy oil from Venezuela or Russia. Reporting by Siyi Liu from Singapore and Colleen Waye in Beijing, with editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman & Kim Coghill
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Demand for French spots eases as supply increases
The European power price fell on Tuesday, as wind volumes are expected to increase in the coming days and demand is also expected to decrease due to rising temperatures. LSEG analyst Florine Eengi predicted net exports for Germany. She also mentioned an increase in solar power. By 0810 GMT the French baseload electricity contract for Wednesday had reached 34.3 euros ($37.06 per megawatt-hour (MWh), while at that time, the German day-ahead power contract had not been traded after closing at 97.3 euro/MWh. LSEG data shows that the German wind power production is expected to double on Wednesday to 22.2 gigawatts from 11.0 GW, according to LSEG. The power consumption in Germany is expected to drop by 400 MW, to 56.5 GW. In France, the demand was predicted to fall to 51.5 GW compared to 51.7 GW. The French nuclear capacity has increased by two percentage points, to 73%. The German baseload year-ahead power contract rose 0.1% to 85,4 euros/MWh. Its French counterpart was not traded after closing at 62.3 euro. The benchmark contract on the European carbon markets was little changed, hovering at 67.92 Euros per metric ton following a close of 67.98 Euros. Henry Lush, Veyt analyst, saw few immediate negative factors in the carbon markets from policy makers and supply. Prices were above technical support levels. Data from the ship-tracking company Kpler revealed that the world's biggest thermal coal buyers have slowed down imports in the first quarter 2025. This has led to the lowest quarterly purchase total for three years. A business survey revealed that Germany's manufacturing sector has shown signs of improvement in March. It was the first time in almost two years that production had increased. $1 = 0.9256 Euros (Reporting and editing by Janane Vekatraman).
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Head of state-backed fund: Blocking 7-11 deal on security grounds will hurt Japan's reputation
The head of a government funded fund warned that Japan would risk damaging its reputation if it refused to accept a foreign bid worth $47 billion for Seven & i Holdings, a retailer. This was based on the grounds of economic security. Keisuke Yokoo, the head of Japan Investment Company (JIC), said in an interview that his fund is also focused on improving JSR's performance after it bought out JSR last year for $6 billion. JIC was not involved in the Seven & i transaction, but Yokoo’s comments demonstrate that Japan’s business establishment may not be as protectionist as is often portrayed. His comments also highlight the wider stakes for the fourth-largest country in the world after Canada's Alimentation Couche-Tard announced its bid to buy the 7-Eleven owners in August. In the United States where President Donald Trump launched a trade war by imposing a series tariffs, protectionism has been on the rise. Japan, however, has increased efforts in recent years to attract more foreign investment. Seven & i has not been warm to Circle K's owner Couche-Tard. Some politicians cited concerns about economic security over the possible acquisition, raising a possibility that Tokyo would take a protective stance in order to keep the beloved convenience stores in the hands of domestic owners. Yokoo said in an interview with Reuters on Friday that it would be bad for Japan's reputation if the government intervened and blocked the bid. He said that it was difficult to understand how retailing is related to economic security. Seven & i, a convenience store chain, was classified in September as "core" for national security. Seven & i's mainstay business, the convenience store, would not require a review of national security in the event that a foreign company took over. However, Seven & i is a large organization with a wide range of operations, including financial service. 'ECONOMIC METABOLISM JIC was established in 2018 to boost Japan's competition and invest in companies. The powerful trade ministry oversees it. On its website, the JIC promotes "economic metabolism," which is a term that policymakers use to describe the need to have stronger companies replace weaker ones. Yokoo stated that the chemicals industry in Japan is one area that needs a shakeup. This sector includes companies that supply chip-related businesses. Japan is no longer the world leader in semiconductor manufacturing, but it still dominates in chemicals and materials essential to chips. JSR is, for instance, a leading manufacturer of photoresists - the light-sensitive chemicals that are used to etch patterns on wafers. There are a number of chemical companies. He said that we need to reduce their number and increase their size in order for them to have a greater presence on the global market. He said that "we are aware of the necessity to mix medium-sized and large companies and are currently considering this internally." Yokoo stated that the consolidation policy "has not changed" but said JSR's immediate priority was to fix issues. JSR's newly-appointed CEO, who began on Tuesday, said last week that he would restore performance to the company after it was hit by losses in its Life Sciences unit. Yokoo stated that he aimed for a return on investment of JSR at least 1.5-fold. When asked if he would invest in Nissan, Yokoo replied that the automaker must first revive itself. He said: "We're willing to provide equity in order to strengthen Japan's competitiveness in manufacturing, but not as a means of rehabilitation." I said that I would be interested in speaking to them once they had turned themselves around. (Reporting and editing by Sharon Singleton, David Dolan, Miho Uranaka)
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Gold and stocks rise as investors wait for Trump tariff clarity
The global stock market rose on Tuesday, following Wall Street’s overnight gains. Gold reached a record high and Treasury yields dropped as markets waited for details about U.S. president Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The Japanese yen and Swiss franc held steady as demand for traditional safe-haven assets increased. The risk-sensitive Australian Dollar also rebounded, after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates unchanged, as expected, while warning of a "pronounced" uncertainty in the global economy. Investors anxiously await April 2, the day Trump has called "Liberation Day", where he promises to reveal a massive tariff plan. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative published its annual report on Foreign Trade Barriers on Monday. It contained scores of policies and regulations of other countries that it considers as trade barriers. It was not clear how Trump's tariff reciprocity plans would be affected by the 397-page document. After the day before, European stocks started stronger, especially in assets that were highly susceptible to U.S. Tariffs. Early trading saw the index rise 0.7%, after rising 5.1% over the first three-months of the year. Pharma and technology stocks led the way. "We still do not know the countries that will be affected by the tariffs and at what rate. The administration may not yet have a final plan in place," said Jim Reid, a strategist at Deutsche Bank. Uncertainty has reached a high level. In the last few days, volatility measures for stock, bonds and currencies have increased sharply, reflecting the difficulty of trading in the unknown. S&P 500 futures fell 0.1% on Monday but the S&P 500 rose 0.55%, ending a losing streak of three days. Tony Sycamore is an analyst with IG. He said: "It's possible that a large portion of the rebound last night in key Wall Street indices could be attributed to rebalancing flows at month and quarter ends, as well short covering before Trump's Liberation Day. There's considerable uncertainty as to what will happen next." The U.S. stock markets are priced to reflect a slower growth rate and lower earnings. They are not priced for recession. If the U.S. enters a recession, U.S. stocks could easily drop another 10%. Gold reached a new record for the fourth consecutive session. It now stands at $3,148.88 an ounce. Kyle Rodda is a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com. He said that, in addition to the general risk aversion of investors, they are increasing their allocations to gold, as the Trump administration’s trade policy threatens the dollar’s special reserve status. The fundamentals of gold remain strong. DOLLAR UNDER SUBSTRESS As prices rose on Tuesday, yields on 10-year benchmark notes fell nearly 6 basis points, to 4.188%. The dollar was held in check by the strong Swiss franc, which strengthened the dollar to 0.883 Swiss francs, a 0.1% drop. The dollar has been under pressure for the past nine years due to investor caution. Its performance in the first quarter of this year against a basket currency was its worst in nearly four years. The Aussie fell from its day-highs, trading 0.1% lower to $0.6245. The RBA kept rates at 4.1% after cutting them by a quarter-point in February, for the first cut in four years. In its statement, the RBA noted that "Geopolitical uncertainty is also pronounced", adding that U.S. Tariffs have an impact on global confidence. Matt Simpson, senior analyst at City Index, said that the RBA's announcement suggests it is inching toward its next cut but not in a hurry to announce one. Bitcoin increased by 1.2%, to $83,040. The oil prices continued to rise, continuing Monday's 2% increase. Brent crude was 0.1% higher at $74.79 per barrel while U.S. Crude rose 0.1% to 71.52. Trump threatened to impose secondary tariffs against Iran and Russian crude oil at the weekend. He warned Iran that he would bomb the country if it did not reach an agreement with Washington on its nuclear program. Kevin Buckland, Himani Sarkar and Kim Coghill edited the article.
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London copper recovers from a two-week low due to positive China data
London copper prices rose Tuesday, recovering from a 2-week-low hit the day before, as positive Chinese data overshadowed concerns about a possible global trade war caused by Trump's impending tariffs. The Caixin/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2 from 50.8 in Feburary, driven by strong export orders and increased demand, reflecting manufacturing growth despite the potential threats of an escalating U.S. Trade War. As of 0711 GMT the benchmark three-month price for copper on London Metal Exchange (LME), had increased 0.7% to $9781.5 per metric tonne, recovering from Monday's 2-week low. Trump announced on Sunday that he will introduce reciprocal tariffs this week to all countries. Everyone is watching closely what President Trump will announce tomorrow. A base metals dealer said that the uncertainty has caused a negative sentiment. The copper price was also supported by a lack of copper concentrate. This has led to negative charges for copper concentrate treatment and refining (TC/RCs). The TC/RCs are an indicator of the availability of copper concentrates. They are a major source of income for smelters. Low TC/RCs indicate a tight supply. On March 28, the Shanghai Metals Market copper concentrats TC/RC Index was -$24.14 a ton and -2.41 cts per pound. Due to concerns about supply disruptions following an earthquake that occurred in Myanmar, which is rich in tin, last Friday, the Shanghai Futures Exchange saw tin prices rise by 0.5%, to 287 480 yuan (about 39,555.30 dollars). Other metals include LME aluminium, which rose by 0.4%, to $2.543, lead, up 0.1%, to $2.013, zinc, up 0.4%, to $2.863, tin, down 0.3%, to $36,550, and nickel, up 1.7%, to $16,195 per ton. SHFE copper rose 0.1%, to 80,430 Chinese yuan per ton. SHFE aluminium remained flat at 20,525 Yuan per ton. Zinc increased by 0.4%, to 23,615 Yuan. Lead was unchanged at 17,410 Yuan. Nickel fell 0.1%, to 130,360 Yuan. $1 = 7.2678 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Rashmi D'Souza and Savio d'Souza; Reporting by Violet Li and Lewis Jackson, both in Beijing)
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Data shows that India's finished steel imports from April to February were up by nearly 16% year-on-year.
According to preliminary government data analyzed by on Tuesday, India's finished imports of steel during the first eleven months of the fiscal year that began in April were 8.98 million tons. This represents a 15.8% increase year-on year. India, which is the second largest crude steel producer in the world, became a net buyer of steel in 2023/24. This trend has continued, with increasing shipments coming from China, South Korea, and Japan. In an effort to reduce imports, India proposed a temporary tax of 12% on certain steel products, also known as a "safeguard duty", for 200 days. The data revealed that South Korea exported the most alloy to India between April and February, with shipments totaling 2.6 million tons, an increase of 7.1% on a year-over-year. The data revealed that finished steel imports totaled 2.4 million tons from China, a 5.3% decrease year-on year, and imports of 1.9 million tons from Japan, a 70% increase year-on year. The government report stated that flat steel products made up 95% of the total finished steel imports. Hot-rolled coils and strips were also the most popular product. The data revealed that India's exports of finished steel during the period April-February were 4.4 million metric tonnes, down 33.7% on an annual basis. According to data, Italy was the top export destination, but exports fell 56.2%. Exports to Belgium, Spain and France also decreased. Last week, it was reported that the European Union tightened its import restrictions and this would likely affect the Indian government's ability to ship to Europe. However, the Indian government is confident that the strong domestic demand will offset any impact. The finished steel consumption of the country was 137.8 millions metric tons. This is an increase of 11.3% on a year-on-year basis. The data revealed that the crude steel production during this period was 138.2 millions metric tons, an increase of 5.2% on a year-on-year.
China's vice-premier raises'solemn concern' about tariffs during talks with US Trade chief
In a Wednesday video call, China's Vice-Premier He Lifeng voiced "serious concerns" about U.S. duties and the planned "reciprocal", according to Xinhua.
Xinhua reported that the two men exchanged "candidly and in depth" views on important economic and trade topics and agreed to keep in touch.
The announcement came as U.S. president Donald Trump prepared to impose reciprocal duties next week. This could mean imposing more duties on Chinese products.
Trump has imposed 20% tariffs on all Chinese imports, since he took office in January. He accuses Beijing of failing to do enough to stop the flow of chemical precursors that are used to make the deadly drug fentanyl.
China responded by imposing targeted duties of up to 15 percent on certain U.S. products, ranging from agricultural products to oil and liquefied gas.
The tit for tat measures have added to the tensions between China and Russia. Relations between these two countries had already reached historic lows due to a range of issues, including trade restrictions and technology barriers. (Reporting and editing by Andrew Heavens and Kirsten Donovan; Reporting by Ethan Wang Yukun Zhang, Ryan Woo)
(source: Reuters)