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After inflation data and tariff plan, US Treasury yields fall to record lows.

The U.S. Treasury yields fell on Thursday as a reading of inflation fueled hope that the Federal Reserve's preferred price measure might be lower than expected.

The Labor Department reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) of final demand increased 0.4% in January after an upwardly-revised 0.5% increase in December. This was higher than the 0.3% estimate by economists polled.

The consumer price index (CPI) for Wednesday showed the largest increase in almost 1-1/2 years.

The PPI data, which is part of personal consumption expenditures(PCE), the Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated on Wednesday as the preferred target inflation measure by the Fed, was soft. This added to the hope that the PCE reading could be lower than expected.

Jack Ablin is the chief investment officer of Cresset Capital. He said that equity investors are taking their cues from bond markets.

Tariffs had investors preparing themselves for a kind of alarmingly high number in terms of inflation.

Investors also evaluated U.S. president Donald Trump's tariff plans.

Trump has instructed his economics team to devise a plan that will impose reciprocal duties on all countries that impose duties on U.S. imported goods in a new volley against American friends and enemies, increasing the prospects of a global trading war.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average grew 342.87 points or 0.77% to 44,711.43, while the S&P 500 climbed 63.10 or 1.04% to 6,115.07, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 295.69 or 1.50% to 19,945.64.

MSCI's global stock index rose 9.59 points or 1.10% to 882.37, after reaching an intraday high of 883.30. It was on course for its largest daily percentage gain since the 15th of January.

The pan-European STOXX 600 Index rose 1.09% in a fourth consecutive session, closing at a record. Nestle and Siemens gained after their quarterly results. Also, there are hopes that the war between Russia, Ukraine and Ukraine will be ended through talks.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes fell 9.9 basis points, to 4.535%. This is on course for its largest daily decline in a whole month. In addition to the PPI data the U.S. initial unemployment claims dropped 7,000 points to 213,000 seasonally adjusted, a level slightly below 215,000 and showing that the job market is still on solid ground.

According to CME's FedWatch Tool, the expectation of a Fed rate cut continues to be delayed this year. The market does not price in a probability of greater than 50% of a reduction of at least 25 base points before July. Markets had not seen a greater than 50% chance of a rate cut before the September meeting.

The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket currencies) fell 0.76% at 107.09, and was on course for its largest one-day percentage decline since January 20. At $1.046, the euro rose 0.75%.

Boris Vujcic, a Croatian policymaker, said that the European Central Bank (ECB) could reduce interest rates by three times more this year, even if it moves slower than its U.S. counterpart. However policy easing will be based on a rapid drop in inflation.

The dollar fell 1.06% against the Japanese yen to 152.78.

The pound rose 0.92%, to $1.2556. Official figures revealed that the British economy grew unexpectedly by 0.1% during the last quarter of the year. This was higher than the 0.1% contraction expected. However, longer-term problems remain.

Prices of oil were a little lower today, recovering from their earlier drops as the downward pressure caused by hopes for peace between Russia and Ukraine was offset by optimism about a possible pause on new U.S. Tariffs. U.S. crude oil settled at $71.29 per barrel, down by 0.11%. Brent ended the day at $75.02 a barrel, down by 0.21%.

(source: Reuters)