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India's palm oil imports in December fell to an 8-month low due to weak demand
Five dealers report that India's palm oils imports dropped to an 8-month low in the month of December. This was due to a weaker winter season and refiners increasing their purchases of competing oils like soyoil or sunflower oil. Reduced palm oil imports by?India, which is the world's biggest buyer of vegetable oil, could increase inventories in top producing countries Indonesia and Malaysia. This would weigh on benchmark Malaysian Palm Oil Futures while supporting U.S. Soyoil Futures. According to dealers, palm oil imports dropped 20% in December, to 507,000 tons, the lowest level since April 2025. Dealer estimates show that soyoil exports jumped 37%, to 508,000 tonnes, while sunflower oil imports more-than-doubled, to 350,000 tons. Estimates show that India's total edible oil imports rose by 19% in December compared to the previous month, reaching a new three-month record of 1,37 million?tons. This was due to an increase in soyoil imports and sunflower oil. They said that the import numbers exclude duty-free shipments?that arrived via land border from Nepal. The Solvent Extractors' Association of India said that India imported approximately 632,000 tonnes of palm oil per month in the marketing year ending October 2025. It plans to publish its December data by mid-January. The demand for palm oil has remained low due to the winter season and increased availability of domestic edible oil such as cottonseed, groundnut, and soya oil. India's palm?imports are usually moderated during winter, when the tropical oil becomes solidified at lower temperatures. This limits its use in the northern parts of the country. India imports a lot of palm oil, mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia. It also imports sunflower oil and soyoil from Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine. Sandeep Bajoria is the chief executive officer of Sunvin Group. A vegetable oil brokerage firm and consultancy.
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Trump's Venezuela gamble tests investors' appetite for geopolitical risks
Investors warn that the geopolitical risk may be underestimated by markets after Donald Trump threatened to take further action in America. After President Trump announced that the U.S. will take over the oil-producing nation, investors held their nerve, despite oil prices falling modestly. Gold prices rose, however, due to safe-haven flows. Trump's threats towards Colombia and Mexico, while Washington hasn't made such an aggressive intervention in Latin America since 1989 when it invaded Panama, highlighted the aggressive change in U.S. policies and brought geopolitical risks to the forefront for financial markets in the beginning of the year. Vishnu Varathan is the head of Asia Ex-Japan macro research at Mizuho Securities, Singapore. The question is: Is the stability of LatAm as a whole at risk? It's then a completely different proposition, isn't? The flow-through effect and all could even be greater." Analysts and investors stated that the calm market response to Maduro’s capture was because Venezuela's oil output relative to global production is small, and it would take many years of investment to catch up. The impact of the military action on the sentiment will be far-reaching, but it could also unlock Venezuela's vast reserves of oil and boost risk assets in the long-term. Trump said that American oil companies were ready to take on the difficult task of entering Venezuela to invest in order to restore production. Tai Hui is the chief market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management for Asia-Pacific. He said that this event should have broader geopolitical ramifications. However, he believes that financial markets do not price such risks very accurately. First test of the Markets in 2026 The U.S. stock market and the global markets have made a rapid start to 2019 after finishing 2025 at record highs. They had notched double-digit increases in a turbulent year marked by tariff wars and central bank policy, as well as simmering geopolitical conflicts. As a result of Trump's willingness to use U.S. force in support of his policy agenda, the immediate impact will be felt in the?defence sector. Analysts say that the increased uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy will also weigh on the dollar's safe-haven status. The U.S. Dollar firmed up a little on Monday, but it is coming off of its worst year in 2017. It will drop?over 9 percent against major currencies by 2025. Investors are also concerned about the implications of Trump's actions on Venezuela for China's stance towards Taiwan, and if Washington will be more aggressive in its efforts to change regimes in Iran. Li Fang-kuo is the chairman of Taiwan's Uni-President Stock Investment Advisory Unit. He said that investors do not have to worry about China?attacking Taiwan. "Yes, China conducted military exercises around Taiwan. But we haven't seen anything like the months-long escalation that we witnessed from the U.S. against Venezuela." Some analysts claim that investors are becoming accustomed to Trump's foreign policy and military strategies. Charu Chanana is the chief investment strategist for Saxo. He said that the U.S. actions in Venezuela are more of a geopolitical shock than an oil scare at this time. Investors tend to return to rates, earnings and positioning unless the action threatens the supply chain. "We are in a regime that is dominated by geopolitics, and this is not surprising." (Reporting from Ankur Banerjee in Singapore, Rae Wee in Taipei and Gregor Stuart Hunter; Additional reporting from Faith Hung)
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Maduro to face charges of narcoterrorism in US court
Nicolas Maduro, the ousted Venezuelan president, is scheduled to appear at Manhattan federal court Monday to face narcoterrorism charges. His capture by U.S. forces has sparked uncertainty over the future of the oil-rich South American country. Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores were arrested in Brooklyn by U.S. troops after they were seized from Caracas during a surprise weekend raid. Both are expected to appear before U.S. district judge Alvin K. Hellerstein at 12:00 noon EST (1700 GMT) for the hearing. It's unclear whether either of them has hired a lawyer or will enter a plea. Since Maduro declared victory in an election that was marred by accusations of massive irregularities, the U.S. has considered him to be an illegitimate leader. Washington's capture of Maduro marks the most controversial intervention it has made in Latin America since its invasion of Panama 37 year ago. The prosecution claims that Maduro was the leader of a cartel made up of Venezuelan politicians and military leaders who conspired with drug trafficking organizations and terrorist groups designated by the United States to flood the U.S. for years with thousands of tonnes of cocaine. Maduro's first indictment was in 2020, as part of an ongoing narcotics case against former and current Venezuelan officials. In a newly unsealed indictment, prosecutors claim that Maduro personally supervised a state sponsored cocaine trafficking network, which partnered with the most violent and prolific drug-trafficking groups around the world, including Mexico's Sinaloa cartel, Colombia's paramilitary FARC, and Venezuela's Tren de Aragua gang. Indictment: "As Venezuela's president and de-facto leader, Maduro permits cocaine-fueled corrupt to flourish to his benefit, to that of'members of the ruling regime' and to benefit his family." Maduro faces charges of narcoterrorism, cocaine importation conspiracy and possession of destructive devices and machine guns. He is also charged with conspiracy to possess destructive devices and machine guns. If convicted, he faces a sentence of up to 30 years in prison for each charge. The prosecution claims that Maduro was involved in drug trafficking since 2000, when he was elected to the Venezuelan National Assembly. He also allegedly participated in it during his time as Foreign Minister from 2006 until 2013, and even after he became the successor to the late President Hugo Chavez in 2013. Indictment states that Maduro, while serving as Venezuela's foreign minister, sold diplomatic passports and arranged for diplomatic cover to flights carrying drug proceeds from Mexico into Venezuela. Prosecutors say that from?2004-2015, Maduro used state-sponsored criminal groups to traffic cocaine seized by Venezuelan officials and ordered kidnappings. They also claimed to have ordered murders, beatings, and other crimes to protect operations and collect debts. The prosecution claims that Maduro, as president, directed the cocaine trafficking routes and used military protection to protect the shipments. He also sheltered violent trafficking gangs and used presidential facilities for drug trafficking. Indictment: The indictment gives an example of a month after Maduro's swearing-in in April 2013 when he allegedly instructed top coconspirators to find a new route for smuggling in order to replace a French authority discovered one. Maduro authorized the arrest of low-level officials in the military to divert blame, according to prosecutors. Legal experts say that prosecutors must show evidence of Maduro’s direct involvement in drug trafficking for a conviction. This could be difficult if Maduro shields himself from decisions. Maduro has ruled Venezuela for over 12 years with a heavy hand, presidening over severe economic and social crisis and resisting the pressure of domestic opponents and foreign government for political change. Maduro was captured after a long-term pressure campaign from Trump. He authorized U.S. troops to seize ships suspected of transporting Venezuelan oil sanctioned by the United Nations and to launch missile attacks on small boats believed to be carrying drugs. International law experts have questioned whether the raid was legal. Some criticize Trump's actions for being a rejection of an international order based on rules. The U.N. Security Council is scheduled to meet Monday to discuss the U.S. strike, which Secretary General Antonio Guterres called a dangerous precedent. Russia and China have both criticized the U.S., as they are major supporters of Venezuela.
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Investors assess Venezuela's upheaval by assessing the oil price and stock market.
Asian stocks rose on Monday as AI-related themes were?infocus at the beginning of the first trading week of this year. Oil prices fell on the belief that U.S. military action in Venezuela was unlikely to disrupt an energy market well-supplied. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan rose by?1.4%, reaching a new record high. S&P 500 futures also gained 0.2% as investors scanned the geopolitical landscape ahead of an upcoming week packed with economic data. Investors are assessing what the impact of the dramatic weekend will be. The U.S. had captured Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, and U.S. Donald Trump announced that he would temporarily take control of the South American country. Trump told reporters Sunday that he would order a second strike if Venezuela did not cooperate with U.S. efforts in opening up its oil industry or stopping drug trafficking. He also threatened to take military action in Colombia and Mexico. Neil Shearing is the group chief economist at Capital Economics. He said that the removal of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro from office by the U.S. will not have any significant economic effects on the global economy in the near future. "But its geopolitical and political ramifications are likely to reverberate." Brent crude futures fluctuated between gains and losses. The last drop was 0.7% to $60.33, as oil markets assessed how the U.S.' intervention in Venezuela would impact oil prices and the vote of OPEC+ Sunday night to maintain oil production at the same level. David Chao is the global market strategist at Invesco, Singapore. He said that Asia's market reaction was muted. Investors largely ignored weekend developments. In North Asia, the focus is firmly on the structural benefits of rising AI investment. This outweighs geopolitical worries. The Nikkei rose more than 3.3% among regional share markets to reach a near-record high, reached just two months ago. This was the first day of trading after the New Year. Data showed that manufacturing activity in Japan stabilised in December. This ended a five-month trend of decline. Seoul's Kospi, and Taiwan both climbed by more than 3% each to reach new record highs. Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a recent research note that the AI investment boom, particularly from the United States has been a boon to top-line growth in Taiwan, and to a lesser degree Korea. "In Taiwan, between 5-10 cents per dollar of U.S. AI investments are invested... the remainder is largely sent to Asia with TSMC as the largest supplier." The Chinese markets were a bit more subdued, with the Hang Seng Index trading at a flat rate, as Chinese oil companies weighed down a measure of Hong Kong listed energy stocks, which fell 3%. Australian shares were flat, with gains from major miners countering declines by the top energy companies. Vasu Menon is the managing director of investment strategy for OCBC Singapore. He said that the strategic calculations were taking place against a backdrop of midterm elections, and that developments would be unpredictable. This uncertainty could support oil prices. "A more volatile geopolitical climate may boost haven assets such as precious metals." DAX Futures in Germany were up by 0.5% and FTSE Futures were up by 0.6%. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket six currencies, rose 0.2% to 98.746, continuing recent gains for a sixth day in a row. The dollar rose 0.3% against the yen to a new two-week high. It was last traded at 157.21 yen. Kazuo Ueda, the Governor of the Bank of Japan, said that if prices and economic conditions continue to move in accordance with their forecasts then they will continue to increase interest rates. The yield of the 10-year Treasury Bond in the United States was up by 0.8 basis points to 4.179%. Gold gained 2%, trading at $4413.93 due to the increased demand for safe-haven assets. Bitcoin rose by 1.3% to $92,393.99 and ether rose 0.3% to $3,153.41. (Reporting and editing by Muralikumar Anatharaman and Shri Navaratnam; Reporting by Gregor Stuart Hunter)
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Investors and market analysts react to Trump’s Venezuela gamble
The capture by the U.S. of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro has triggered a new surge in geopolitical risks, but initial market reactions have been relatively calm with oil volatile and gold rising on safe-haven flows. The dollar rose on Monday, while stocks rose. Here are some comments by market analysts DAVID CHAO, GLOBAL MARKET STRATEGIST FOR ASIA-PACIFIC, INVESCO, SINGAPORE The weekend's events are unlikely to have a significant impact on the global macro-conditions or markets in the near future, due to Venezuela's relative minor role today's energy landscape. This is why oil prices have not moved significantly, nor has the price of U.S. equity or other macro assets. The broader message was that geopolitical uncertainties have become an integral part the macro-environment, and should continue to support demand for precious metals despite elevated volatility. GARY TAN PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT, ALLSPRING GLOBAL INVESTIMENTS, SINGAPORE Credit markets are likely to feel the immediate impact from a EM perspective of the growing U.S. Presence in Latin America. As geopolitical risks premiums stabilize, we expect credit spreads to narrow, especially for lower-rated sovereigns. "On the geopolitical side, we do not anticipate any meaningful change in China-Taiwan dynamic as a result Venezuelan developments." Asian policymakers tend to see U.S. involvement in Latin America more as a regional strategy than a sign of reduced U.S. support in Asia. RONG REN GOH, PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT, EASTSPRING INVESTORS, SINGAPORE "Venezuela is a major headline risk for investors in Asia. Direct exposure to the region is very limited. The impact will be felt more through market sentiment, and less so by what the oil price could do over time. In recent months, fixed income markets have benefitted from a calm and carry-friendly environment. This is a reminder of the fact that shocks like these can still occur, even when markets are tightly priced. CHARU CHANANA CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST SAXO SINGAPORE Geopolitics is a constant feature of our regime, and not something that comes as a shock. Investors tend to fade the initial shock unless it threatens the supply chain and then return their attention to rates, earnings and positioning. For now, this is more of a geopolitical than an oil shock. VISHNU VARATHAN HEAD OF MACRO RESEARCH ASIA EXJAPAN MIZUHO SINGAPORE We are reminded that the geopolitical risk is much greater than a number based on imports. "The sanctions against Venezuela and its exceptional dependence on oil exports... means that the Venezuelan regime change impact through trade channels and investment channels is quite naturally limited and ringfenced. This is why there hasn't been a big selloff. The question and case in mind are: Is the stability of LatAm at risk? The effects could be far greater." KYLE RODDA, SENIOR ?MARKET ANALYST, CAPITAL.COM, MELBOURNE The implications of the current situation are relatively limited and confined to the energy sector. The market is responding to the government's increased exposure to alternatives that are not dollar-based and do not use fiat currency. The markets, however, are more focused on what lies ahead than what occurred over the weekend. TAI HUI, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST FOR ASIA-PACIFIC, J.P. MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT, HONG KONG "The lack reaction to date is due to two factors. Venezuela's oil output in relation to the global production is very small (around 1%) It's not likely to be able increase production or add to the global supply anytime soon due to years of underinvestment. "It is still unclear what will become of the new regime, as President Trump has announced that the U.S. will be 'running Venezuela' in the near future. Global markets will be affected by the energy market. There will be geopolitical ramifications from this event. However, I do not believe that the financial markets are very effective in valuing such risks. VASU MENON MANAGING DIRECTOR FOR INVESTMENT STRATEGY, OCBC SINGAPORE While President Trump has pledged U.S. support for the industry to revitalise the oil production in Venezuela, restoring operations and capital investments will take significant time before the oil taps are fully reopened. Oil prices could rise modestly in the short-term due to supply disruptions caused by ongoing political turmoil. "However the impact could be limited given that Venezuela is currently not a major producer of oil. OPEC's production decisions could also stabilize prices. "It remains to be seen if the Trump administration is interested in more regime changes." (Reporting and editing by Shri Navaratnam; Ankur Banerjee, Ankur Banerjee in Singapore.
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MORNING BID EUROPE-Venezuela upheaval tests markets
Gregor Stuart Hunter gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The dramatic weekend that saw U.S. forces capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has caused the oil market to be roiled as the first full trading week of 2019 begins, even though the global stock markets appear to have ignored geopolitical risk for the moment. Brent crude futures fluctuated between gains and losses, but ended the day at $60.49. Traders are assessing the impact of the U.S. military attack on Venezuela, the country with the largest reserves of oil in the world, on global crude supplies. In recent hours, U.S. president Donald?Trump said that U.S. troops might launch a military strike against Venezuela if the remaining members of the?administration do not cooperate in his efforts to "fix" the country. He also hinted at future action in Colombia and Mexico. OPEC+ - which pumps half of the world's crude oil - also maintained its output on Sunday, after a brief meeting that avoided discussing the political crisis affecting some of the group's member producers. Venezuela's PDVSA, the state-run oil company, has cut back on crude production because of a lack of storage space due to the ongoing U.S. blockade. The stock market has taken geopolitical worries in stride. Many of the winners from last year in Asia have extended their gains. The Nikkei rose as much as 2,9%, nearing a record set two months earlier. Data showed that manufacturing activity had stabilised in December after a five-month decline. Taiwan's Kospi rallied by more than 3,4% and Seoul's Kospi rose 2.9% to new record highs. The shares of Samsung Electronics rose up to 6.5% due to the general buoyant market sentiment. According to its co-CEO, the company plans to double the number its mobile devices this year with AI powered by Google Gemini. The Hang Seng Index fell 0.1%, as Chinese oil companies?dragged the index down. A measure of Hong Kong listed energy stocks dropped 2.8%. Early European trading saw pan-regional futures up 0.7%. German DAX Futures rose 0.5%. FTSE Futures rose 0.6%. Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact Sentix Index: Euro Zone for January U.K. BOE consumer credit and Mortgage Lending for November Debt auctions: France: 3-month-, 6-month- and 1-year government bonds Germany: 3-month debt and 9-month debt
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Gold prices surge as demand for safe-havens increases due to the US arrest of Venezuela's president
Gold prices rose Monday, and other precious metals surged, after the United States captured Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro?over the weekend. This heightened geopolitical tensions, and lifted safe-haven demands. Gold spot rose by 1.8% at 0508 GMT to $4,406.77 an ounce. This is a new weekly high. U.S. Gold Futures for Delivery in February rose 1.9% to $4413.40. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst at KCM Trade. He said that Venezuela's events have reignited demand for safe-haven assets, including gold and silver, as investors seek to protect themselves against geopolitical risk. The U.S. captured Maduro on Saturday in the most controversial attack in Latin America since Washington's invasion of Panama 37 years ago. Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, who has been appointed interim leader, said that Maduro is still president. Last year, geopolitical tensions combined with central bank purchases, interest rate reductions and large inflows to exchange-traded fund?led to the bullion market's biggest annual gain ever, 64%. The record high was $4,549.71, which occurred on December 26, 2025. Anna Paulson, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, said on Saturday further rate reductions could be a long way off following an active campaign of ease last year. Investors still expect at least two Fed rate reductions this year. Waterer said that investors will be looking at the non-farm payroll figures, due on Friday, to get more clues about possible Fed rate cuts. In a low interest rate environment, and in times of geopolitical or economic uncertainty, non-yielding investments tend to perform well. After hitting an all time high of $83.62 per ounce on December 29, spot silver rose 3.9% to $75.46. The metal finished its best ever year at a record 147% higher. Silver's 'fresh highs' were boosted by its designation last year as a critical U.S. Mineral and the supply constraints that accompanied a rising industrial and investment demand. After touching an all-time record of $2,478.50 on Monday, spot platinum increased 2.2% to reach $2,189.88. Early Asia hours saw it rise more than 5% to a new high. Palladium climbed 2.1% to $1,671.95 per ounce. (Reporting and editing by IshaanArora, SherryJacob-Phillips, Ronojoy Mazumdar).
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Analysts predict that Venezuelan oil production will increase in the future and lower prices.
Oil analysts say that the?crude production?in Venezuela will increase in time, following a 'dramatic U.S. attack and the capture of its President. This is likely to raise?global supplies?and weigh on prices long-term. American forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas on the weekend. U.S. president Donald Trump announced that Washington would seize control of the oil producing nation, and that the U.S. oil embargo remained fully effective. According to the London-based Energy Institute, the Organization?of Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC) member has about 17% global oil reserves or 303 billion barils, ahead of OPEC leader Saudi Arabia. Venezuela produced a staggering?3.5m barrels of crude oil per day in the 1970s. This was over 7% more than the global output at that time. The production fell below 2,000,000 bpd in the 2010s, and was averaging 1.1 million bpd on average last year. This represents just 1% of global oil output. JPMorgan analysts, led by Natasha Kaneva, said in a report that Venezuelan oil production could increase to 1.3-1.4m bpd in two years, and possibly reach 2.5m bpd during the next decade. Currently, it is around 800,000 bpd. The note continued, "These dynamics do not appear in the curve at the back end of oil futures." Goldman Sachs analysts, led by Daan Stuyven, said in a note dated January 4, that any recovery in production was likely to be gradual and would require substantial investments. Analysts estimated that oil prices would fall by $4 per barrel in 2030 if Venezuela's crude production rose to 2,000,000 bpd. Goldman analysts say that Venezuela's oil production in the short-term will be affected by the U.S. sanctions policy. They added that "we see Venezuela as a source of ambiguous, but modest risks for oil prices on the short term? depending on how U.S. policy changes." Goldman's forecasts for 2026 oil prices remained unchanged. Brent's average price is $56 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate's at $52 per barrel. Venezuela's oil production in 2026 will remain flat at 900,000. (Reporting and editing by Lincoln Feast, Muralikumar Aantharaman and Florence Tan)
Moldova, separatist region inch toward gas supply offer
Moldova and its separatist Transdniestria area inched towards an offer on Monday to permit gas to flow to locals of the rebel enclave, who have been suffering from power and heating cuts since the start of the year.
Ukraine declined to renew a contract allowing transit through its territory of materials from gas giant Gazprom for pro-Russian Transdniestria, along with clients in Slovakia and Austria.
Transdniestria locals remained subjected on Monday to a. five-hour rolling blackout and authorities said those in. high-rise homes had lacked heating for almost three. weeks. They said gas reserves in the territory sufficed. for 11 days at current minimized levels of usage.
Transdniestria's separatist leader, Vadim Krasnoselsky, said. his region had told Moldova's pro-European authorities two days. previously that it was all set to consent to an offer to accept - and pay. for - gas supplies supplied by the Moldovagaz nationwide company.
Moldova blames Moscow for the crisis and has urged Gazprom. to send out gas by alternative paths, including pipelines running. through Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania. Gazprom says it will send. no gas to Moldova pending payment of financial obligations it approximates at. $ 709 million, a figure disputed by Moldova's central government.
Today is currently 20th January and we have no reply. I ask. you to stop politicising this problem and think of individuals,. Krasnoselsky said throughout a conference of local authorities.
He called for action in the interests of individuals freezing in. their houses, the interests of social organizations and of. business that are idle due to lack of gas supply.
Krasnoselsky proposed having the gas provided to Moldova's. border by an independent, personal gas company and the Moldovan. federal government's press secretary, Daniel Voda, said authorities were. thinking about the proposal.
Igor Ananskikh, a member of the Russian parliament's State. Duma lower house, said he thought Russia would help finance gas. materials if an agreement might be reached.
I believe with the help of the Russian Federation these. materials will be paid for in the end, Ananskikh, a member of. the Duma's Energy Committee, said in remarks reported by. Moldovan media.
Transdniestria, Ananskikh said, had no choices.
Transdniestria, supported by Moscow after breaking away. from Moldova at the end of the Soviet period, had long gotten. Russian gas through Ukraine complimentary of charge. Krasnoselsky. describes the products as humanitarian gas.
Moldovan President Maia Sandu, who has spearheaded the. ex-Soviet state's campaign to sign up with the European Union, used. at the weekend to provide monetary assistance for Transdniestria.
But she said any such plan was possible only after. the withdrawal from Moldova of 1,500 Russian peacekeeping. troops deployed considering that a short 1992 war between Trandniestrian. separatists and the freshly independent Moldovan state.
(source: Reuters)