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Gas shocks play higher function in euro zone inflation, ECB paper says

Gas rate shocks have a progressively crucial effect on euro zone inflation although still not as much as oil cost fluctuations, fresh research study released by the European Reserve bank showed on Monday.

Natural gas rates soared at the start of Russia's war in Ukraine in early 2022, assisting drive euro zone inflation into double digits by the fall of that year and setting off the ECB's steepest rate walking cycle to date.

Gas prices used to be tied to oil but the two have decoupled over the past two decades as markets were liberalised and gas now plays a distinct, standalone function.

Compared to oil rate shocks, gas price shocks have about one third smaller pass-through to heading inflation, the paper's authors, financial experts at the Banco de Espana and the ECB, stated.

Gas is more vital in the production side than in the usage basket so that indirect impacts control, the paper stated.

The authors argued that a 10% increase in the gas cost results in a pass-through of approximately 0.1 percentage point, with relentless inflationary effect beyond one year.

Thinking about that the surge in gas prices in between the beginning of 2022 and the peak reached in August 2022 was close to 200%, this would equate into a boost of inflation of roughly 2 portion points, the paper estimated.

Gas prices have actually considering that retreated and energy prices exerted downward pressure on inflation for much of this year, with natural gas costs moving within a relatively narrow band around their mid-2021 levels.

Unexpected gas rates shocks have a bigger inflationary impact on countries that tend to be more intensive users of gas in production or power generation, the scientists said.

Our results recommend unforeseen gas cost changes matter more for German, Spanish and Italian than for French inflation, the paper said.

(source: Reuters)