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Stocks flat as traders digest Fed comments, oil falls

Stocks flat as traders digest Fed comments, oil falls
Stocks flat as traders digest Fed comments, oil falls

The gauge of world stock markets fell to begin the first quarter on Wednesday, as the U.S. Central Bank?head stated that inflation expectations had fallen, but that policy would not be relaxed. Meanwhile oil prices dropped as optimism about U.S. Iran talks eased concerns over supply. Even if the yen recovered later in the day, traders are still watching for any possible Japanese intervention on the currency markets. Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve Chair, said that inflation expectations and risks have decreased in recent weeks. He said that he would stick to the U.S. Central Bank's 2% target for inflation and "disappoint anyone" who expected a looser monetary policy.

His comments weighed heavily on the dollar. This is because rising expectations for Fed rate hikes in this year have boosted the dollar. Inflation is well above the central banks's 2% target. Many analysts still believe that inflation will improve in the coming months.

"We see no signs that the imbalance between inflation and activity is increasing rapidly," said Steve Englander, Standard Chartered Bank New York's head of global G10 research and North America Macro Strategy.

Englander said that you can wait to see how the longer-term trends in technology play out. What we see is that the unit labor costs have been very low, and that's ultimately what the Fed controls.

The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket of major currencies) rose by 0.17%, to 101.41. Meanwhile, the euro fell by 0.39%, to $1.1376. The dollar and yen were last day flat.

The Fed is not expected to make any changes at its meeting in late August, but a rate hike in September has been priced in.

The trades are also looking forward to Thursday's economic reports, which will show that U.S. employers created 110,000 new jobs in June and the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%. According to the ADP National Employment Report released on Wednesday, private employment increased by 98,000 positions in June. This was below the 118,000 predicted by economists.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 13.96 points or 0.03% to 52,305.24. The S&P 500 declined 16.13 points or 0.22% to 7,483.23 while the Nasdaq Composite lost 173.69 points or 0.66% to 26,040.0.

MSCI's global index of stocks fell 2.51 points or 0.22% to 1,117.95. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell by 0.38% while Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 fell by 11.45 points or 0.45%. Emerging Market stocks dropped 0.96 points, or 0.06% to 1,721.93.

Japan's ?Nikkei gained 0.6% after surging 37% last quarter. South Korea's index dropped about 2% after a rally of 68% last quarter, driven by chip demand fueled by AI.

Oil prices dropped on the energy markets as optimism about U.S. - Iran talks eased supply concerns.

Phil Flynn is a senior analyst at Price Futures Group. He said that there's a growing optimism as more oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. The market is saying that, once we get through this, we will be able to produce more oil than ever before.

Brent crude dropped 2.44% to $71.17 a barrel, down from $68.09 per barrel. Despite sharp price declines last quarter, both remain ?up almost 20% year-to-date. A poll shows that analysts have cut their oil price forecasts 2026 for the first since the Iran War began. The reopening of Strait of Hormuz has eased fears over supply disruptions.

(source: Reuters)