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Fed raises interest rates and a strong dollar will cause gold to have its worst quarter since 13 years.
The dollar was firmer amid expectations that U.S. rates will be raised, and gold edged up from a near seven-month low. As of 1150 GMT spot gold was up 0.4% to $4,031.29 an ounce after hitting its lowest level in November 2025 earlier in session. U.S. gold futures for August delivery fell 0.2% to $4.045.30/oz. "The failure to maintain gains (for gold), highlights the current fragile mood, where traders continue to?sell into strength instead of buying into weakness, which is a noticeable shift from behaviour seen in the past few years," said Saxo Bank Analyst Ole Hansen. Bullion fell more than 11% in the last month and is on course for its fourth consecutive monthly decline. The precious metal was also on track for its first quarterly drop since 2024, and its largest quarterly percentage drop since the?June quarter?of 2013 Hansen said that prices must first break above $4100 to be considered a low. The dollar's strength, which was set to gain for the second consecutive month as markets priced higher odds of Fed rate increases, also weighed on bullion. CME FedWatch data shows that higher energy prices, fueled by the Middle East war, have erased expectations for a rate cut in the United States this year. Traders now see a 65% chance of an increase in September. Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation, but higher interest rates can weigh down on this non-yielding material. The focus is now on the upcoming 'U.S. Employment data, such as the?ADP and nonfarm payrolls will provide clues about the future path of the U.S. The oil market is on course for its worst quarter since early 2020, as traders assess prospects for renewed U.S. diplomacy with Iran. Iran has said that reports of Doha talks this week are unfounded. As political risks surrounding the U.S. currency grow, many central banks are planning to reduce their dollar holdings rather than increase them over the next decade. An OMFIF study showed that currency is growing. Other than that, spot silver increased by 1.2%, to $59 an ounce. Platinum gained almost 1%, to $1.589.75, and palladium grew 2.4%, to $1.241.89. All three metals are headed towards quarterly and monthly losses.
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Russell: Crude oil imports to Asia from the ROI grew in June, but there is still uncertainty.
Asia's crude oil imports by sea?rose slightly in June, but remained near their lowest levels in over a decade due to the impact of the?Iran Conflict on shipments from Middle East. Data from commodity analysts Kpler show that the top importing region will receive 20,71 million barrels of oil per day in June. This is up a fraction from the?20.39million bpd received in May and almost 2 million bpd more than the 18,77million bpd achieved in April. The imports of Asia remain well below the average 26.79 millions bpd for the three-month period prior to the United States' and Israel's attacks on Iran on February 28. The war resulted in a closure of the Strait of Hormuz - the narrow waterway that connects Iran and Oman, through which 20% of crude oil and refined products were transported before the conflict. The United States and Iran agreed to a 60-day truce that was to result in the reopening the Strait. However, vessel movements are still?well below the pre-war level due to Iranian attacks on certain ships. The Strait of Hormuz has seen a recent increase in crude volumes, but Kpler estimates that only 2.79 millions bpd of oil will have been exported in June. This is up from just 881,000 barrels per day in May, but still less than half of the average 15.58 million barrels per day for the three-month period prior to the beginning of the conflict. Unresolved is the question of whether or not crude exports to the Middle East will return to their pre-war level, and how long it will take. PRICES SEE SOLUTION Brent contracts ended at $73.15 per barrel on Monday. This is only slightly more than the $72.48 close from February 27, just before hostilities began. The prices of refined products in Asia are a little different. They remain above the pre-war level as refiners process expensive crude bought from outside the Middle East during the heights of the conflict. Singapore?gasoil - the main component of diesel - closed at $111.15 per barrel on Monday. This is a 22% increase from the previous close on February 27, which was $91.42. Gasoline On Monday, oil finished at $100.42 per barrel. This is a 26.6% increase from the $79.30 it was on February 27. As more crude oil arrives in Asia, it is likely that the price of refined products will fall in the coming weeks. How quickly the import volume returns to pre-conflict levels will determine how much of a difference there is. The Strait of Hormuz is still a wildcard, with Iran determined to exert control in spite of the opposition of the Trump administration, Gulf crude exporters like Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Tanker owners and insurers will continue to be concerned about the safety of the Strait, causing them to restrict their movements. What China does over the next few months is another wildcard. By reducing imports dramatically, the world's largest crude oil importer has reduced the impact of restricted flows through Strait?of?Hormuz. Kpler predicts that China's seaborne landings will be only 5.80 million bpd for June, down from 6.80 million in May. This is the weakest two-month period since November 2015. The average seaborne imports of China for the three-month period prior to the conflict was 11.39 millions bpd. China's refiners are likely to start purchasing cargoes once more, but only after August. The level of uncertainty on the crude oil market in Asia is still high. Will the crude market tighten if China returns to buying the same volume of crude as it did prior to the Iran War, particularly if the Strait Of Hormuz flows do not increase as much as futures markets appear to expect? What will happen to crude oil supply when the current surge in stockpile releases from countries like the United States and Japan stops? The crude oil market has shown remarkable adaptability and resilience in spite of the disruption brought on by the Iran War. It is unclear whether this trend will continue. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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South African cities close as anti-migrant demonstrations gain momentum
On Tuesday, anti-immigrant protesters armed with wooden sticks and flags marched across South Africa. Some of the marches saw violence, but it was under heavy police protection. Shops were closed, while foreign workers stayed home. The "deadline", set by the demonstrators for all undocumented immigrants to leave the country on Tuesday, had been missed by thousands of foreigners?from other parts of Africa. Police with armoured cars and helicopters supported hundreds of protesters in parts of Johannesburg, the commercial capital, and Durban, the port city. They were armed with South African flags while carrying wooden batons. The jobs are taken by illegal immigrants. "It's not right," said Silindile, 31, who was part of a group chanting antimigrant slogans central Durban. Violence against migrants The deadline was interpreted by migrants as a physical danger. There were scattered signs violence at midday local (1000 GMT), but marches were mostly peaceful. The police said that they arrested some "looters" but did not provide any further information. In Thembisa (a suburb in the north of Johannesburg), rioters hurled stones at suspected migrants and police, while gunfire was heard sporadically near the central business district. The Daily Maverick, a national newspaper, reported that police fired shots and deployed tactical vehicles in Benoni (east Johannesburg) after 500 protesters threatened them. The police spokesperson didn't immediately respond to our request for comment. The national broadcaster SABC said that protesters in the densely-populated township Soweto looted shacks of foreigners. Since the protests began, at least five people have died in violence. Thousands of people have had their homes and businesses vandalised or driven out. These attacks have occurred sporadically since 2008 in South Africa, and there is little distinction between those who entered the country legally and those who didn't. The March and March campaign group, led by an ex-radio presenter who was behind the recent protests, denies inciting violence. It also says that it is not responsible for any spontaneous anger of South Africans against undocumented immigrants. Jacinta ngobese said in an interview a couple of weeks ago that they were trying to channel the anger at the government. "Unfortunately, it is not possible for us to be in every community and tell them how they should behave. They live with them." Witnesses said that landlords in Durban, Johannesburg and other cities were removing foreign tenants illegally out of fear their buildings would be vandalised. Mabako Majole said, "All of these people were chased away by their landlords." He was standing next to around 100 people who were sleeping in the streets in Durban. "All of these people are legal." "They have documents." South Africans, mostly unemployed or poor, are expected to march in multiple cities. They blame foreigners for their plight. A military spokesperson confirmed that thousands of police officers were on duty and the military was on standby with an emergency budget 600 million rand (about $36.6 million). South Africa's reputation as an defender of human right after Nelson Mandela has been tarnished by the wave of anti-immigrant feeling and the failure of police to protect their victims. Social scientists claim that there is no evidence to support the claims made by immigrants. They are accused of taking jobs, driving criminality and placing pressure on public services. There are streets in the town where all of the shops are run by foreigners. Ethiopians are the owners of many shops in my hometown, Ulundi. Meluneki Dlamini (31 and unemployed) told the Durban march that this hurts people who were already there. Thirty years after the end of Apartheid in South Africa, it remains unequal, its economic growth is slow, and a third are unemployed. It is still Africa's biggest economy, and it continues to attract migrants. StatsSA estimates that the?immigrants population is around 3 million, or about 4%. This is a low percentage by international standards. VIGILANTES ARRESTED FOR POLITICAL RHETORIC HARDENENS Tebello Mosikili, Deputy National Police Commissioner, said that 103 criminal charges had been filed against anti-foreigner militants since March. The state has a responsibility to ensure peaceful demonstrations. While condemning violence, some politicians have expressed the concerns of protesters. In a Monday statement, President Cyril Ramaphosa stated that "South Africans are... deeply concerned about illegal immigration and deserve to be heard." "But the right of protest... does not permit people to intimidate or threaten others, or engage in acts vandalism or violent." South African officials have noted that Western countries also face similar tensions regarding immigration, which are often fueled by divisive politics or misinformation.
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Stocks soar in stellar quarter, dollar hits gold and the yen
On Tuesday, global stocks were on track to achieve their best performance in the second quarter of six years. Meanwhile, a resurgent US dollar drove the yen down to its lowest level in four decades and was heading for a fourth consecutive quarterly increase. In the last three months the Strait of Hormuz reopened slowly and 'haphazardly' as hostilities between Iran and the U.S. waned, resulting in a fragile ceasefire and a 20% drop in the price of crude oil. A dramatic shift has also occurred in the expectations of U.S. interest rate, against the backdrop of an unstoppable rise in artificial intelligence stock prices. The MSCI All-World Index has increased by almost 14% in the past three months to new highs, its best performance for the second quarter since 2020. The majority of gains are due to a fervent rally in AI, especially in Asian markets where indexes from Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan registered?double-digit percent gains. The S&P500 is up 14%, and the Nasdaq has gained 20%. Guy Miller, chief strategist at Zurich Insurance Group, said: "The theme that has largely disappeared is monetary policy support." The futures market priced further rate reductions at the start of the year. Now, that's changed. This is largely due to the current situation in Iran and the increased commodity prices. "What we take away from this is that we don't expect any more cuts by the central banks. But we also don't anticipate a new cycle of hikes." Europe's STOXX 600 index, which has fewer AI beneficiaries than many Asian and U.S. indices, rose 1.1%. It is on track to achieve a gain of 10% for the quarter, after rising every month since march. U.S. Stock Futures?were between 0.1% and 0.2 % higher, indicating a modest rise at the opening bell. THE WINNING DOLLAR The dollar was the biggest winner in the foreign exchange markets this quarter, with a gain of 1.4% against a basket major currencies. Investors are building up bullish positions in record numbers, thanks to the remarkable change in the interest rate outlook for the United States, from a cut to a hike, owing to the unexpected strength of the U.S. economic and the persistent inflationary pressures that go beyond energy prices. Dollar's increase has caused gold to fall to its biggest quarterly drop in over a decade. The yen, on the other hand, has fallen to its weakest point in forty years and traded around 162.38 to a dollar on Tuesday. The yen was at its weakest point in 40 years, trading around 162.38 per dollar on Tuesday. Traders had been alerted to the possibility of a Japanese intervention by Finance Minister Satsuki Catayama. This week, the world's leading central bankers will gather in Sintra for the annual meeting of the European Central Bank. No one will be in the spotlight more than the new Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh who is scheduled to speak on Wednesday. Warsh's focus on inflation during his first meeting as Fed head earlier this month led traders to price in the prospect that a rate increase will be implemented by October. However, some economists think the economy is strong enough and the inflation obvious enough to warrant an increase as early as July. Isabelle Mateos y Lago is the BNP Paribas 'group chief economist. She said: "Of all of the major central bankers, Fed policymakers are probably the only one where it seems plausible that they can go in July and hike the rate to get the issue out of the system, in a sense." "That's certainly not our case, but it's possible that they'd want to move forward and?get that out of the way." Before Warsh appears, Tuesday will bring a variety of European inflation data, U.S. consumer sentiment data for June, and the JOLTS monthly hirings-and-firings report. The clock is ticking down to the U.S. jobs report on Thursday. Dhara Ranasinghe contributed additional reporting from London, Tom Westbrook reported from Singapore, and Muralikumar Anantharaman edited the story.
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Flood aid in Bangladesh depends on better forecasts and cash upfront
Flash floods strike key rice crops at peak harvest Some people benefited from pre-flood money, but thousands lost out The problems are money, logistics and forecasting By Md. ?Tahmid Zami He managed to save less than half of his crop. He said, "I couldn't?get?enough farmworkers or harvester machines?to cut the whole yield and bring it home." Since a decade, the government has alerted vulnerable farmers and families to impending flooding and provided them with cash in order to minimize their losses. Forecasting and support depth are the main problems. The forecasting behind early support is just as important as the actual support, said Dr. Fazle Rabbi Sadeque Ahmed. He is the deputy managing director at the government-backed Palli Karma-Sahayak Foundation. In April, flash floods caused by excessive rainfall and runoff water from the Indian state Meghalaya upstream in northeast Bangladesh submerged over 46,000 hectares at the height of?the rice harvest. Three days before the April flooding, the U.N. World Food Programme, one of the organizations implementing this scheme known as early actions, distributed 5,000 Taka (41 dollars) to each household. Flash floods can be less dangerous than monsoon floods, which are often deadly. However, they can cause damage to crops and threaten the food supply. Early warnings and cash handouts from the WFP in the Northeast helped farmers harvest 60% of their crops in wetlands areas. However, the assistance could not cover all the flooded areas. Some 50,000 farmers were still facing heavy losses. The weather service of the country provides an advance warning. However, flash floods are not as predictable, despite recent improvements. AID GAP Niger Dilnahar is the head of resilience innovation for WFP Bangladesh. He said that the WFP had intended to assist 85,000 farming families with early action prior to the April flood season. However, the WFP could not activate this programme everywhere because forecasts were not available for the entire "haor" wetlands region. Ahmed said that accurate and timely forecasts were needed to determine where floods would likely strike and the potential damage they could cause. Sardar Uday Raihan is an executive engineer with the government agency. He said that the Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre had been working on increasing warning times and was able to provide a forecast three days prior to the April flood. Imran Shakil is an agricultural officer appointed by the government in Brahmanbaria, in eastern Bangladesh. He said that farmers in remote areas need more than just cash. They also need better roads and harvester machines. Shakil said that farmers need assistance with harvesting logistics to make pre-flood help work. The resource gap is one of the biggest bottlenecks in scaling up the support. Dilnahar stated that the WFP provides support to about?500,000 households -- or around 2.5 million people- against cyclones. Dilnahar said that there is a large resource gap in?prefinancing early actions and donors need to step up to fill the gap. Experts in disaster and climate said that pre-disaster assistance should be supplemented with other types of support. PKSF's Dr. Ahmed said that disasters exacerbate the vulnerability of people on the frontlines. The pre-disaster support cash should be combined with regular social security benefits for those most at risk, as well as climate insurance for farmers. Miya, and other Brahmanbaria farmers are unsure of the future of their farms.
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UK auto lobby group warns that post-Brexit regulations will cost PS1.4 billion
The main British car lobby estimated that British electric vehicle manufacturers will be forced to pay PS1.4billion ($1.85billion) in tariffs, if the European Union and the United Kingdom cannot reach an agreement on the local content requirement. The Society of Motor Manufacturers & Traders (SMMT), said that the post-Brexit regulations on the sourcing parts, which were delayed a second time in 2023, are now set to come into effect as of January. This will result in a 10% tariff imposed?on 70% battery electric and plugin hybrid models sold within the EU. A similar enforcement could make many of these important models less affordable and competitive. The warning comes at a time of political uncertainty following the resignation of Prime Minister Keir starmer. It is unclear whether Andy Burnham, former Greater Manchester Mayor, will continue his approach towards EU relations. The government didn't immediately reply to a question about the SMMT statement. At a London press briefing, SMMT CEO Mike Hawes said: "Global competition is fiercer than ever. We don't need any additional costs in this trade. Both the EU and Britain are aiming to eliminate combustion engine models by 2030. The EU has already backtracked from a 2035 ban of?diesel cars and petrol vehicles as sales haven't risen as quickly as expected. The previous extension was made after several carmakers threatened to shut down their factories in Britain. Hawes stated that the 'Made-in-EU' proposal of the European Commission would "effectively" "shut out", UK-assembled cars from most European markets. He added: "It is not only a UK issue... It will harm the UK, and also Europe itself." Reporting by Muvija and Nick Carey, Editing by Thomas Derpinghaus & Raju Gopalakrishnan
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Doubled at halftime for MORNING BID AMERICAS
What's important in the U.S. and Global Markets Today By Mike Dolan. Editor-at-Large for Finance and Markets The first half of 2026 is over as the whistle blows. The AI industry has had a great year despite the energy-shocking, four-month-long Iran war, and the geopolitical tensions over Venezuela, Greenland, and NATO. Chip stocks have more than doubled. Below, I will go into more detail. Check out my most recent column about the risks that remain around the AI boom, even as bubble concerns are waning. Watch the new episode of Morning Bid, a special mid-year edition with Markets Columnist Jamie McGeever. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast to hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks. Also, subscribe to Jamie McGeever's Trading Day newsletter. DOUBLED IN HALF TIME The so-called hyperscalers have pumped up AI?capex, which has led to a trebling or quadrupling of many chip stocks this year. The U.S. SOX index had its best quarter ever in the second quarter, but the Magnificent 7 - who are responsible for most of the spending - have experienced a dreary year so far. The oil prices are back to pre-Iran War levels. Meanwhile, all eyes will be on the planned peace talks in Doha, scheduled for Tuesday, after weekend military flareups. Recent macro releases indicate that the U.S. may be running hot. The quarter ended with a positive note for Asia's big chip-stock winners, and Wall Street is now focused on the June jobs report, due Thursday, during this holiday-shortened week. The U.S. consumer confidence update for June is scheduled for Tuesday. Also, the May U.S. job openings are on the agenda. The narrow U.S. Supreme Court decision that President Trump could not fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook before the case against her was heard and proven on Monday, was another big development. It's another matter if she is found guilty. Japan's yen has continued to fall to its lowest level in 40 years on the FX market, with no intervention by authorities despite repeated warnings. Investors are becoming increasingly concerned about possible official intervention to support the currency. Speculative short positions have reached their highest level in two years. Comcast's stock ended Monday almost 5% higher after it announced that it would be splitting its media and entertainment division from its?communications unit, spinning out NBCUniversal, Sky and into a separate company. Chart of the Day In 2026, the halftime whistle has already blown. And?chips? are the clear winners. Even that is an understatement. Intel, Marvell Technology and Micron Technology shares have more than tripled in value. Sandisk's share price has risen more than 700%. But the companies that are doing the AI-related spending, which is driving demand for these chips, are also suffering. The Magnificent Seven of U.S. Tech Megacaps, once a 4% loss for the year. Microsoft is down 24% while Meta is down nearly 15%. Watch today's events * U.S. May ?JOLTS job openings (10 a.m. EDT), June consumer confidence (10 a.m. ?EDT) Nike's earnings in the U.S. Beth Hammack, Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack, speaks Want to receive the Morning Bid every morning in your email? Subscribe to the newsletter by clicking here. Follow us on LinkedIn, X and ROI. The opinions expressed by the author are their own. These opinions do not represent those of News. News is bound by the Trust Principles to maintain integrity, independence and freedom from bias. (By Mike Dolan).
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VEGOILS - Palm down on weaker Soyoil and the prospect of increased production, but logs a monthly gain
Malaysian palm futures declined?on Tuesday as soft soyoil pressured the market and an anticipated increase in production pushed the price up. However, the contract still recorded a'monthly gain. The benchmark palm oil contract for September delivery at Bursa Derivatives Exchange fell 39 ringgit (0.85%) to 4,549 Ringgit ($1,114.40). This month's contract saw a gain of 0.31%, ending two consecutive months of declines. Markets traded lower as a result of a 'weakness in the soybean oil markets during Asian hours. The expectation that output will rise in the next few weeks also weighed on sentiment. Dalian's palm oil contract fell by 0.55%, while the most active soyoil contract dropped by 0.14%. Soyoil prices at the Chicago Board of Trade fell by 0.33%. As palm oil competes to gain a share in the global vegetable oils industry, it tracks the price fluctuations of competing edible oils. Investors are looking forward to possible U.S.-Iran discussions in Doha, amid a strained ceasefire in 'the four-month old war. Palm oil is a less attractive feedstock for biodiesel due to the weaker crude oil futures. According to cargo surveyors, Malaysian palm oil exports rose from 4.7% to?11.9% in June compared with a month ago. The dollar's value against the ringgit has fallen by 0.37%, making palm commodities slightly cheaper to buyers who hold foreign currencies. Indonesian Palm Oil Association statistics show that Indonesian palm oil exports in April included 2.78 million tons of refined products, up from 1.78 million tonnes in the same period last year. ($1 = 4.0820 ringgit)
Oil analysts lower their oil forecasts after the reopening of Hormuz eases supply concerns
A poll on Tuesday showed that analysts have cut their oil price forecasts 2026 for the first time since the Iran War began. This follows five consecutive months of increases. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has eased concerns about?prolonged disruptions in supply.
According to the'monthly' survey of 31 economists, analysts and other experts, Brent crude will average $84.50 a barrel by 2026 compared to $90.44 last month. U.S. crude oil was projected to average $79.49 per barrel, down from the $84.63 estimate in May. These revisions represent a decline of more than 6% from estimates made in May. The forecasts jumped after the Iran conflict broke out at the end February, which disrupted the oil supply and drove the oil price to multi-year heights.
Since then, oil benchmarks have fallen from their peaks of $126 per barrel of Brent and $120 per barrel of WTI. This is due to easing geopolitical conflicts and the restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Tobias Keller of UniCredit said that the bulk of geopolitical risks premium had already been unwound. He added that weaker demand and recovering Middle East flows would likely cap any further gains.
According to the poll, on average, analysts expect Brent to fall from $84 in the third-quarter of 2026 to $79 in the fourth-quarter, then to mid-$70s in mid-2027.
Some market participants warned that geopolitical risks may still support prices.
How to handle returns of supplies as a risk?
If the traffic in the Strait of?Hormuz returns to normal, the oil market will return to surplus supply. Frank Schallenberger, head of LBBW commodity research, said that prices would continue to fall in the second half 2026.
During the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz was closed. This cut off nearly a fifth of the global oil supply. This led to a dramatic drop in stocks and pushed the markets into deficit by 2026.
Kim Fustier is the head of European Oil & Gas Research at HSBC. She said that "our 2026 balance estimates" show a market with a?deficit of 2 million barrels per day... and a return of a small surplus in the fourth quarter 2026 of 1 million bpd, assuming Gulf Production is restored to near-normal.
Several respondents believe that OPEC+ will continue to increase output at a moderate pace as it tries to regain market share while preventing a sharp drop in prices.
The International Energy Agency, in its first look ahead to 2027, said that the oil market would enter a significant overhang. Global supply is expected to increase by 8 million barrels per day, while demand will only rise by 2 million.
DEMAND SOFTENS SUPPORT EYED Ahead
According to the poll?oil consumption growth is expected to decrease by approximately 1.0 to 2.0 million barrels a day in 2026. Analysts say that the demand for oil has slowed due to a weaker Chinese economy, which is the world's largest importer.
OPEC's 2026?oil growth forecast remained at 1.4 million barrels a day between February and April. It was then reduced to 1.2 million bpd by May, and finally to less than 1 million bpd by June.
Goldman Sachs, a global stockpile of more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd) is cited by some participants as a trend that will improve demand in the future.
(source: Reuters)