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IMF: It will take some time before energy and commodity prices normalize following the US-Iran agreement
International Monetary Fund?said Thursday that it had seen energy and commodities prices drop since?the U.S. and Iran agreement to?halt?hostilities and reopen?the Strait of?Hormuz.?But it will take some time for prices to return to normal and Gulf trade to resume. IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said at a press briefing that the Fund would decide on whether or not to stick with the three growth scenarios that it had presented in April, which were dependent on the outcome of the Iran war. Kozack said that as the Strait of Hormuz was closed in May and benchmark oil prices remained above $100 per barrel the global economy had moved from a more benign "reference scenario," which?assumed an end to the war, to a "disadvantageous scenario" with 2.5% growth globally for 2026. The scenario also assumed that the average oil price for 2026 would be $100 per barrel. It also assumed tighter financial conditions and rising inflation expectations. Kozack stated?on Friday that inflationary expectations are well-anchored as central banks have raised interest rates and financial conditions remain accommodative. Both advanced and emerging markets can access international finance markets. Benchmark Brent crude futures for August deliveries traded at $73 per barrel on Thursday. This was their lowest price since the start of the U.S. supported war against Iran, which began on February 28. Kozack said that prices for urea and other fertilizers, as well as base metals, had also fallen since the return of shipments from Gulf nations, but full normalization will take some time due to shipping lead times. Kozack stated that it will take some time to return to a 'normal state.' This is assuming that the ceasefire continues. She stated that the IMF was most concerned with the conflict's effect on developing countries, particularly those in Africa who are net energy importers and have few fiscal reserves. Kozack responded that India's internal demand was strong and its real GDP growth for fiscal 2026-2027 year is projected to be 6.5%. (Reporting and editing by Franklin Paul, Paul Simao and Andrea Shalal)
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The dollar is steady near its one-year high as world stocks rise on the chip rally
Global stocks rose Thursday, as chipmakers' strong earnings lifted sentiment. Meanwhile, the dollar hovered at a year-high, with investors still wary of stretched valuations. S&P 500 and Nasdaq, the benchmark indexes on Wall Street, were both up, with industrials, healthcare, and materials stocks leading the way. Micron rose 10% as the memory chipmaker’s strong forecast contributed to its AI-driven rise. Qualcomm gained 4% following its announcement that it expects to generate $15 billion in annual sales through its data center division by 2029. Nasdaq fell, but was dragged lower by the choppy trades among megacap technology companies. Apple fell 5.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1%. The S&P 500 rose 0.21%. And the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.46%. AI VALUATIONS & INTEREST RATE DRIVE SENTIMENT Recent days have seen markets become volatile due to investor concern that AI-related company valuations are 'extended after years of gains. Markets are also pricing in higher interest rate from the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central bankers. Marc Dizard is the chief investment officer of Huntington Bank. He said that if you compare the S&P 500 without technology to the tech sector, the two are about 2.8 standard differences apart. When you consider the magnitude of the move, we don't find it surprising that there would be a "pause", some consolidation, and a rebalancing, where investors take profits off the board." The broad STOXX 600 index rose by 0.92% in Europe. The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 0.42%. "Technology will be a long-term asset, as the story unfolds. Not necessarily within the next six month." When the Fed adopts a hawkish stance, long-term assets will be sold off during that period, Dizard explained. The U.S. data showed that inflation in the United States rose above 4% for the first three years on Thursday, as energy prices were boosted by the Middle East conflict. However, the monthly reading came in slightly lower than expected, which helped to drive yields down. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes dropped?1.37 basis point to 4.386%. The yield on 2-year notes fell 2.64 basis point to 4.111%. OIL BACK AT PRE-WAR LEVELS Oil 'prices' edged up but remained near levels seen just before the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran. This was due to the expectation of a rising Middle East supply outweighing demand concerns. Brent crude futures rose?1%, to $74.49 per barrel. The dollar was down against its major counterparts but still close to its highest level in the past year. The euro last traded at $1.1388, just a hair above the 13-month low of Wednesday, and the Japanese yen neared its lowest level in over 40 years versus the dollar. Tokyo is widely expected to intervene again after the last bout, around May, failed to stop the currency's slide. The yen gained 0.1% to 161.63 dollars. The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket of currencies, including the yen, the euro and others) fell by 0.29%, reaching 101.30. The dollar dropped, and gold rose. Spot gold increased 0.68% to $4.027.67 per ounce.
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Air-conditioned waiting rooms offer some relief in a French hospital that is sweltering
The waiting room is the most popular place in a private hospital south of Paris. The waiting room has a TV, a table football game and books. But what the staff and patients appreciate most is the air conditioner. As France experiences its highest temperatures ever, it is becoming apparent that many hospitals and schools, factories, homes, and other institutions are not prepared to deal with climate change. The Frederic Henri Manhes Hospital in Fleury Merogis, France has large bay-windows. They were built at the turn of the century when heatwaves in western Europe weren't a concern. They are now like the glass panes in a greenhouse. Medical staff constantly check that patients have enough water and are feeling OK. Some corridors are darkened to make the space cooler. However, it doesn't seem to have much effect, so staff move patients to the waiting room below. Staff and patients suffer from France's heatwave "It is hell." "I'll watch for a bit and then go downstairs (to the waiting room)" said Christine. She was lying in bed in April with her arm wrapped around an electric fan. "Well, I suppose the fan has some effect. But I'm holding it as close to me that I can. "I can't get any closer," she laughed. Patients and staff in public and private hospitals in France are suffering, according to a report. "The level we provide care is reduced because we are tired, we don't sleep well, and the heat conditions we have to deal with can be difficult," said Sandra Carnero. She works in Frederic Henri Manhes’s psychiatric ward. Patients are also tired. This can affect their mood and even worsen the condition. "We can't fully open the windows for safety reasons," she said. "It's muggy, it's humid. "We sweat even when we don't move; it feels like we might faint." Kathy, one of her patients, says she sits right in front a fan to "keep cool" and keep a "clear head". In France, air conditioning is a controversial topic. The National Rally, a far-right group, wants to?install?more nationwide. Many on the left disagree and say that this is a knee jerk reaction which will increase energy consumption in the long term. There is a growing consensus that air conditioning in hospitals and schools would be beneficial. Manhes provides cooling to its most vulnerable patients, such as those on dialysis. Maxime Putton, its director general, stated that putting it in the entire hospital would be a different matter. He said that in institutions where the financial balances can be complex, spending heavily on air conditioning could mean less money spent elsewhere, unless state funding is available. "But, there will be a day when I, as the Director, have to find solutions to allow our patients to stay with us in good condition if heatwaves become more common." (Ingrid Melander, Kevin Liffey and Juliette Jabkhiro contributed to the reporting; Ingrid Melander wrote the article.
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Gold prices rise as dollar yields fall due to inflation data
Gold prices reversed course and edged up on Thursday, after a U.S. reading of inflation?came in largely line with expectations. This eased some concerns about upcoming Federal Reserve rate increases and pushed the dollar and Treasury yields down. As of 11:12 am EDT (1512 GMT), spot gold rose 0.2% to $4,007.65 per ounce after dropping as much as 1% in earlier sessions. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery rose?0.3%, to $4.021.00 an oz. "PCE data appears to have been in line with expectations. David Meger is director of metals at High Ridge Futures. He said that it's a big reason gold has been relatively stable. The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index surged by 4.1% over the past 12 months, marking the biggest increase since April 2023. The economists polled had predicted PCE inflation rising 4.1%. After the data, the U.S. Dollar?erased its gains and turned lower. This made greenback-priced gold cheaper for overseas merchants. Treasury yields were also pushed lower. The CME FedWatch data showed that the markets project an 80% probability of a rate increase in December. This compares to an 85% before the release the PCE data, and a 61% before the Fed's statement last week. The main focus will continue to be inflationary pressures in the future. Meger said that this is one of the reasons why gold has declined over the last few sessions. Gold prices dropped below $4,000 an ounce on Wednesday, for the first time since November 2025. This was due to expectations that interest rates will rise this year following the U.S. Federal Reserve's hawkish tone at its last policy meeting. Higher?interest rates, despite serving as a hedge against inflation, dampen the appeal of bullion as investors switch to yield-bearing investments. As a result of the agreement reached last week to end the Iran War, oil prices have fallen back to their pre-war level. Spot silver increased 0.4%, to $57.65 an ounce. Platinum rose 0.9%, to $1.593.15. Palladium increased 1% to $1177.73. (Reporting and editing by Leroy Leo, Matthew Lewis and Anjana Anil from Bengaluru)
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Concerns about milk and meat production grow as Belgium bakes under the sun
The Belgian government issued a "red alert" on Thursday for extreme heat. This is due to a heatwave that has lasted days and caused livestock, such as cows and pigs, to struggle with the heat. Boerenbond, the Flemish agricultural association, expects that the heatwave will reduce milk and meat production. However, it's too early to provide precise numbers, said a spokesperson. Sander Palmans (35), director of the Agricultural Research and Education Center and a Bocholt farmer near the Dutch border said that his cows and pigs suffered from heat'stress. The temperatures are taking their toll on him, even though he is using cooling techniques like fans to cool the animals. Palmans reported that his cows were 'less active, ate a little less, and avoided lying on the warm bedding, leading to less milk production. Pigs also suffered, as their growth rate dropped by 150 grams a day. This reduced meat production. He said that "the heat costs us between EUR150-EUR200 per day", or 10 to 15 percent of Palmans' earnings. According to the Flemish Agriculture Ministry, heatwaves across Europe are affecting mostly livestock farmers. Recent rainfall has meant that drought is not a major issue for crop producers. Mark Wulfrancke is a spokesperson of the?Belgian Farmers' Association?Algemeen Boerensyndicaat. Extreme heat in France killed hundreds of thousands poultry while increasing water consumption, reducing feed intake and reducing milk production for cattle farmers. Palmans believes that heatwaves will 'become more frequent,' which will mean more frequent use artificial cooling systems. He stated that the temperature of the air entering livestock housing could be reduced by up to 8 degrees Celsius. He said: "Today, it's just an investment for a few hot days per year. But we are seeing that the number of these days is increasing." Bart Biesemans (Reporting), Caden Kipfmueller (Editing), Charlotte Van Campenhout
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Group and sources claim that the EU's export restrictions on aluminium scrap will be delayed until September.
European Aluminium, a sector lobby group and other industry sources have said that the European Commission has delayed its plans to introduce measures to limit exports of aluminum scrap until September. Maros Sefcovic, European Trade Commissioner, announced plans to restrict scrap exports in November last year. He said that the measures would be implemented by spring 2026. According to one industry source, the delay was due to the difficulty in finding a compromise between competing interests. The Commission didn't immediately reply to a comment request. Recycling aluminium is a key factor in decarbonisation, as it uses 95% fewer energy resources than mining bauxite to produce metal. European Aluminium, which represents producers who favor the export ban, reported that EU aluminium scrap exported reached a record 1,27 million metric tonnes in 2025. This was a 50% increase from the levels of 2019. The majority went to Asia, and the largest amount to India. Further increases were seen in the first quarter of 2026. The report also noted that the United Arab Emirates' export ban, announced in June, would probably worsen the situation since India sources about 20% of its scrap metal from Gulf countries. Paul Voss is the director general of European Aluminium. He said that he was looking forward to effective measures following the EU institutions' August break. Recycling Europe is a group of industry professionals who oppose export restrictions. Recycling Europe's members include companies that shred products such as cars and extract?aluminium fragments which can be fed into melting plants. The group claims that only 20% is actually exported, and that much of it is of a lower quality that cannot be handled within the EU. The report said that restrictions could cause recyclers to reduce operations and cancel investments, resulting in significant amounts of recyclable materials remaining uncollected or unprocessed. (Reporting and editing by David Gregorio; Philip Blenkinsop)
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Braskem, a Brazilian company, seeks protection from the court in its debt negotiations; shares fall
Braskem, a Brazilian petrochemical company, has begun mediation and is seeking court protection for debt talks. The company announced this in a filing on Thursday. This sent its shares down more than 7 percent. Braskem stated that the'measures', which only involve financial creditors, aim to rework its capital structure, and don’t affect its operations. It also added that its board had approved potential protection measures abroad. It said that obligations to customers, suppliers and other stakeholders are still in place and will be met as per existing contracts. Braskem revealed previously confidential documents shared with certain bondholders, lenders and other stakeholders, which outline terms discussed during a possible restructuring. After exchanging proposals, it said that no agreement had been reached with creditors. Braskem's proposal included an out-of court restructuring in Brazil, and envisaged a new committed credit line up to $1.5billion to support liquidity. This would include about $1.3billion of eligible existing exposures as well as an additional $200m commitment. The document shows Braskem’s debt service profile of $3.7 billion between July 2026 and December 2027. This is followed by a bond maturation in 2028. A further $1.3 billion is due in January 2020. Braskem's business plan estimates a net revenue of $15,5 billion in 2026, and earnings before taxes, depreciation, and amortization at about $2.2 billion. The company stated that the projections were hypothetical and solely intended for restructuring discussions. It added that the company remains committed to finding a solution with its creditors and maintaining normal business operations. UBS BB analysts stated that Braskem's road to a solution for liquidity is uncertain and could involve dilution of minority shareholders. Shares of Braskem listed in Sao Paulo were down by more than 7% on Thursday. This stock was the worst performing on Brazil's benchmark index of stocks, which rose?0.7%. Shareholder Changes Earlier in the month, the private equity firm IG4 through its Shine Fund became Braskem’s co-controlling shareholders with a voting stake of 50.1%, previously held by Novonor. Petrobras, the state-owned oil company, holds 47%. Braskem has had difficulty negotiating a restructuring out of court with creditors. The gross corporate debt of Braskem was $9.4 billion at the end March. This included a drawdown from a standby line credit in October 2025. Its adjusted?net debt stood $8.5 billion. Shareholders approved changes to Braskem’s bylaws in early March. The board can now decide whether to file for an out of court restructuring or, in emergency cases, request bankruptcy protection. Reporting by Paula Arend Laier, Isabel Teles and Louise Heavens; Editing and proofreading by Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao and Louise Heavens
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French court orders TotalEnergies to address climate risks associated with its products
A Paris court on Thursday ruled that French oil giant TotalEnergies had to disclose climate risks associated with emissions from its oil products and present plans to mitigate them. The decision is a partial win for climate change NGOs who are trying to apply France's duty of vigilance corporate law from 2017 to climate change. The?court did not order any specific measures, such as limiting exploration and production overseas or setting binding emission?reduction targets. In recent years, climate litigation against oil giants has had mixed results. The Netherlands Supreme Court is currently reviewing a landmark Dutch ruling that ordered Shell to reduce emissions. Plan Updated "Climate risk?to which companies can contribute through their activity is within the scope of duty?of surveillance... "Climate risks to which companies can contribute by their activity are within the scope of the duty?of vigilance... TotalEnergies is required to submit an updated vigilance program for court review within?six month. The company didn't immediately respond to a question about whether it will appeal. It said earlier on Thursday that it didn't 'believe the law should be applied to climate risks, and argued that it shouldn’t be held responsible for so-called Scope 3 emission -- those generated by customers using its fuel products. A coalition of Association SHERPA and Notre Affaire a Tous along with France Nature Environnement - and the City of Paris - filed the case 2020. They argued that TotalEnergies’?oil & gas business is in conflict with climate goals, and it breaches the duty to identify and prevent environmental harm. SHERPA didn't immediately respond to a comment request. In?2023, the?suit was declared inadmissible. However, this decision was reversed on appeal. As an interested party, French prosecutors argued that the duty of vigilance was not meant to cover climate changes. (Reporting by America Hernandez in Paris. (Editing by Inti and Mark Potter.
Hormuz flow increases and oil curve indicates a near-term glut
Analysts said that price data shows that a short-term glut pushed oil futures to levels seen before the war, as Middle East exports increased. But returning demand and slow normalisation of the market could tighten it next year.
Brent futures for August traded at around $73 per barrel on Thursday. This was their lowest price since February 27. They were also 41 cents lower than September futures.
Contango, or the price of a contract that is lower than another contract, indicates a large supply on the market.
The reopening of Strait of Hormuz caused a'mini tsunami' that has changed the market. Instead of missing barrels, the market is now choking on barrels. In the short term, the focus will be on the wall of barrels in front of us and how long it will take to absorb them," said Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank.
SHORT TERM PRICE GLU
The front-month structure entered contango for the first since the end of the war on Wednesday, after a temporary?U.S.Iran agreement to end the?conflict between the two countries and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This route carries a fifth of the daily global oil supply.
Bjarne Shieldrop, SEB analyst, said that a drop in Chinese imports and weak demand have also affected prompt prices. The reopening Hormuz has released supply more abruptly than in the past.
Chris Wright, U.S. Energy secretary, said that 20 million barrels have left the strait over the last 24 hours.
Long Road to Recovery
The current curve is a dramatic change from the'very steep backwardation' seen during the height of crisis in April when Brent front-month?hits $126.41 per barrel.
Backwardation -- where?prompt contracts trade above futures -- usually signals a tightening market.
The curve indicating that the glut could be temporary is still in reverse.
Schieldrop stated that more?tankers leave Hormuz to load new cargoes than enter to do so, as shippers remain wary of geopolitical risk, which will take some time to normalise.
Rebuilding depleted inventory could also help to rebalance the markets?into next years.
Soni Kumari, an ANZ analyst, said: "Replenishing inventories is a major part of the demand in the future, and we see it continuing into 2027."
(source: Reuters)