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Fuel costs are increasing, so airlines are reducing their prices and cutting back on their outlook.
The U.S. and Israeli war against Iran, which has pushed up jet fuel prices, has shook the aviation industry around the world. Airlines have been forced to increase fares and revise financial forecasts. In recent weeks, jet fuel prices have increased from $85-$90 per barrel up to $150-$200 per barrel. This is a major financial blow to an industry that relies on fuel for up to one quarter of its operating costs. Here is an alphabetical list of the ways airlines are responding to this issue: AEGEAN AIRLINES The Greek airline anticipates that the suspension of Middle East flights, as well as a spike in fuel costs, will have "significant impact" on their first-quarter earnings. AIRASIA X Malaysian Airlines'?executives stated that the company has cut 10% of its flights in the group and imposed a fuel surcharge of around 20%. AIR CANADA The Canadian largest airline plans to reduce four of its daily flights to New York to 38 due to rising fuel prices. The four flights from JFK International Airport to be cut between June 1, 2026 and October 25, 2026. AIR FRANCE-KLM The airline group announced that it would increase the price of?long-haul tickets to offset rising fuel costs. Cabin fares will rise by 59 euros (50 euros) per round trip. KLM, the Dutch arm of the group, announced on April 16 that it would cancel 160 flights across Europe due to rising fuel prices. AIR INDIA The Indian airline said that it will change its fuel surcharge system from a flat surcharge for domestic flights to one based on distance. The Indian carrier said that surcharges for international routes do not compensate the steep rise in fuel costs. AIR NEW ZEALAND On April 7, the airline announced that it would cut flights in May and June, and raise fares. It was one of the first airlines to announce a large increase in ticket prices after the conflict began. The airline also suspended its earnings forecast for the full year due to volatility in the fuel markets. AIR TRANSAT The Canadian airline announced that it would reduce its planned capacity by 6 percent from May to October of this year. Cuts are expected to be made on routes to Europe, the Caribbean, and Cuba. AKASA AIR Akasa Airlines, based in India, announced that it would be introducing fuel surcharges ranging from 199 to 1,300 Indian Rupees ($2 - $14) for domestic and international flights. ALASKA AIR The airline retracted its profit forecast for the full year and warned that margins would be severely impacted by the sharp increase in fuel prices. It has also reduced capacity in certain markets. AMERICAN AIRLINES U.S. airline announced that it will increase the fees for checked baggage by $10 for each of the first two bags and $150 for the third bag for domestic and short-haul flights. The airline also reduced certain benefits for passengers in economy class. ASIANA AIRLINES Newsis reported that the South Korean airline would cut 22 flights from April to July because of fuel price increases. CATHAY PACIFIC According to a termsheet seen on Wednesday, the airline raised HK$2,08 billion ($265,58 million) by issuing three-year fixed rate notes with a yield of 3.78%. CEBU AIR The Philippines-based carrier said that the sharp rise in fuel prices is a major concern. It will continue to review pricing and network strategies and try to minimize the impact. CHINA EASTERN EXPRESS AIRLINES The airline announced that it would increase fuel surcharges on domestic flights starting April 5. Flights of less than 800 km will be charged a 60-yuan fee ($9), while flights above 800 km will be charged a 120-yuan charge. DELTA AIR LINES Delta announced that it would reduce capacity by 3.5 percentage points compared to its original plan, and raise fees for checked baggage in order to offset the rising costs of jet fuel. The increase will be $10 for first and second bags, and $50 on third bags. The U.S. carrier pulled all planned growth in capacity for the current quarter, and forecast profits below Wall Street expectations. EASYJET EasyJet has warned that it will suffer a larger half-year loss before tax of between 540 and 560 millions pounds (729 and 756 million dollars), which includes 25 million pounds of extra fuel costs for March. FRONTIER AÉRIENS Fuel prices have risen significantly since the airline's last forecast, prompting it to review its full-year outlook. GREATER BAY Airlines The Hong Kong-based firm said that it will increase fuel surcharges for most routes starting April 1, but keep them the same on routes to mainland China and Japan. HONG KONG Airlines Fuel surcharges will be increased by up to 35 percent on flights from Hong Kong to the Maldives, Bangladesh, and Nepal. British Airways' owner IAG stated in March that it did not intend to increase ticket price immediately as it had hedged a large amount of fuel for the short to medium term. INDIGO India's largest airline announced that it will introduce fuel charges for domestic and international flights starting March 14. The charge for flights into the Middle East is 900 rupees and for flights into Europe, 2,300 rupees. JETBLUE AERWAYS Joanna Geraghty is the CEO of the low-cost airline based in the United States. She told her employees, via a memo, that she would not be considering bankruptcy this year despite the fact that rising jet fuel prices threaten the financial recovery. According to a SEC filing, the company has entered into a debt financing agreement worth $500 million. KOREAN AIR Sources with knowledge on the subject say that South Korean carriers will be forced to enter emergency mode in April due to rising fuel prices. LUFTHANSA The airline group announced that 20,000 short-haul flight would be removed from the schedule until October. This is equivalent to 40,000 metric tonnes of jet fuel. The German company had previously announced that it would be grounding 27 aircraft servicing its CityLine short-haul subsidiary earlier than expected. PAKISTAN INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS Fuel surcharges are cited as the reason for raising domestic fares up to $20 and international flights by up $100. QANTAS AIRWAYS Qantas, an Australian airline, said that it has delayed a planned A$150-million ($107-million) buyback. It also increased its fuel estimate for the second half 2026 from A$2.5-billion to A$3.1-3.33 billion. After cancelling "couple hundred flights" in March, the Scandinavian airline announced that it would cancel 1000 flights in April due to high fuel and oil prices. SPIRIT AIRLINES Air Current cited people familiar with the situation to report that the U.S. low cost carrier requested hundreds of millions in emergency funding from the Trump administration to offset the rising fuel prices and prevent a potential liquidation. SPRING AIRLINES Budget Chinese airline announced that it will increase fuel surcharges for domestic flights starting April 5. Details to be announced in due course. SOUTHWEST SOUTHWEST SOUTHWEST SOUTHWEST SOUTHWEST SOUTHWEST SOUTHWAST AIRLINES Fuel prices have impacted the margins of this American airline, which has forecast a second-quarter loss below expectations. The airline had previously announced that it would increase the cost of checked bags by $10 each for the first and the second bag. This will bring the total to $55 and $45 respectively. The Portuguese airline claimed that its price increases would partially offset the impact of fuel prices changes on its revenues. THAI AIRWAYS The Thailand-based airline said that it would increase fares between 10% and 15% in order to combat rising fuel prices. The European airline, tour operator and travel agency cut their full-year underlying profit outlook and suspended revenue forecasts, claiming that they had incurred extra costs of about 40 million euros due to the March war, including repatriation and operational disruptions. TURKISH AIRLINES LUFTHANSA SunExpress is a joint venture of Turkish Airlines and Lufthansa. It announced that it would be imposing a temporary fuel charge of 10 euros per person on routes between Turkey, Europe and the Middle East, starting May 1. The fuel surcharge will be applied to all bookings made after April 1, for departures after May 1. Turkish Airlines announced on April 10, that it would not be distributing any dividends from its net profit for 2025, instead opting to "retain earnings in order to preserve cash". T'WAY AIR As part of the measures taken to combat the effects of war, the South Korean low-cost airline said that it would furlough cabin crew in May and/or June without pay. UNITED AIRLINES Scott Kirby, CEO of the U.S. airline, said that ticket prices could rise as much as 15% to 20% in order to offset an increase in jet fuel costs. The company has already implemented five fare hikes late in the first-quarter, along with increased baggage fees that it says have begun to offset rising fuel prices. The carrier forecast that it would also make profits in the second and third quarters below Wall Street expectations. It said they expected to recover just 40-50% of fuel price increases through fares in the second, but 70-80% by the third. VIETJET Vietnamese budget airline has announced that it has adjusted flight frequencies on certain routes due to possible fuel shortages. VIETNAM Airline Vietnam's aviation authority announced that the carrier will cancel 23 flights a week on domestic routes starting in April after it requested assistance from the government to remove an environmental tax on jet fuel. VIRGIN ATLANTIC Corneel Kster, the CEO of the airline, told The Financial Times that despite adding fuel surcharges on fares this year it will struggle to achieve profitability. VIRGIN AUSTRALIA Virgin Australia has said that it expects an increase of jet fuel costs of between A$30 and A$40 million in the second half of the fiscal year. It also anticipates a 1% decrease in capacity for the fourth quarter. VOLOTEA The Spanish low cost airline has introduced a new pricing strategy that links ticket prices with fuel costs. This could add an additional surcharge after purchase of up to fourteen euros per passenger per flight. The Globe and Mail reported that WESTJET, a Canadian airline, has reduced seat capacity in June. The Canadian Press reported previously that the airline would add C$60 ($44.50) to certain bookings, and combine flights due to rising costs.
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Bank FAB's quarterly profit in UAE drops slightly, but still beats expectations
First Abu Dhabi Bank, the UAE’s largest bank by assets, announced a net profit for the first quarter of 5,01 billion dirhams (US$1.36 'billion), down 2% from last year, but operating profit and operating income both increased. The Iran war has caused a global disruption in energy supplies and damaged energy infrastructure. This has affected oil and?gas producers in the?Gulf?. The bank stated that net profit was impacted by 300 million dirhams in "prudent managerial overlays" and that, without these overlays net profit increased by 3% year-on-year. The lender stated that the net impairment charges increased from 724 million dirhams to 1.1 billion, including the overlays "in response to an evolving external environment". The lender did not provide any further information. LSEG data shows that the quarterly profit was still higher than analysts' expectations of 4,38 billion dirhams. Last month, the UAE Central Bank announced measures to support banks' liquidity. These included?an enhanced access to reserve balances up to 30% of cash reserve requirements and term liquidity in both dirhams (the local currency) and U.S. dollar. Bank FAB's Operating Income grew by 6% to 9.34 billion Dirhams over the previous year period, while the operating profit grew by 5%. Deposits rose by 4% and loans grew by 8%. At the end of March total assets had reached 1,49 trillion dirhams, up 6% on a year-to-date basis. "We will continue to focus our efforts on our strategic goals, using a diversified funding base, strong capital position and liquidity buffers to navigate the global market from a place of strength," said Group CEO Hana Al-Rostamani in a press release. According to LSEG data, Bank FAB is owned by Mubadala, the sovereign fund of Abu Dhabi and by the Abu Dhabi royal family. The International Monetary Fund has revised its UAE growth forecast to 3.1% by 2026. This is almost 2 percentage points lower than the previous October's estimate. Next year, it expects a 5.3% increase.
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Asian shares fall from record highs on oil gains due to Iran risk
Asian shares fell from record highs Thursday, as oil prices 'extended their gains due to renewed shipping problems?in Gulf. This underscored fragile risk sentiment in the face of a 'peace deal that eludes both the U.S. European stocks are preparing for a weaker opening, with panregional futures down 1,1%. Wall Street futures fell 0.5% in Asia. Overnight, S&P 500 rose 1%, and Nasdaq rose 1.6%, to set new record-closing heights. This was helped by the strong start of earnings season, which has eased consumer concerns over the U.S. economy despite the rising cost of energy due to the "Iran War". MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan, which tracks Wall Street, had risen to an all-time high of 831.56 but soon began to sell. Last down 0.5%. Nikkei, the Japanese stock index, reached a new record for the second consecutive day. It then fell 0.9%. Taiwan and South Korea's markets also reached new highs before turning lower. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 1.1% and China's blue chip index dropped 0.8%. Brent crude futures rose another 1.4% to $103.3 per barrel on Thursday, after soaring 3.5% overnight and crossing back over $100. Iran on Wednesday 'captured' two container ships that were trying to leave the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. Investors are watching the Middle East ceasefire, which is fragile, to see if it will last. The markets are on edge. "We are still in the no-war no-peace area, which means that even an unverified fear of escalation could jolt crude oil and send risk assets down," said Charu C. Chanana. Chief investment strategist at Saxo. Oil's rise, even without any clear trigger, shows that investors are still highly sensitive to tail risks. Overnight on Wall Street, shares of GE Vernova surged 13.75% after the power equipment maker raised its annual revenue forecast on the AI boom, and Boeing advanced over 5% after ?a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss. Tesla, the electric automaker, reported a positive surprise in its free cash flow for the first quarter. However, investors were sceptical about the company's projections of?sharply higher spending plans on AI and robots, which led to a 2% drop in shares after the bell. Treasury yields increased with oil prices. After a slight increase of 1 basis point on Wednesday, the yield for two-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose by 2 basis points to 3.8106%. The 10-year yield rose 3 bps to 4.3214% after being little changed overnight. The dollar held onto its small overnight gains. The euro remained steady at $1.17 after losing 0.3% overnight. It was just above the 10-day low of $1.1691. The risk-sensitive?Australian Dollar fell 0.2% to $0.7147. Markets are remarkably good at 'looking through risk. This may continue. The list of risks continues to grow as solutions remain elusive, said Laura Cooper. Global investment strategist for asset manager Nuveen. "The dissonance can't last forever... At some stage, what's being ignored may become the only thing that matters." (Editing by Kim Coghill & Shri Navaratnam).
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How much risk can the markets tolerate?
Rae Wee gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. When you're always looking over your shoulder, it's difficult to?pop the champagne. Asian stocks took the lead on Wall Street to reach all-time highs, but investors were not spared much in 'the Middle East War as the standoff between Iran & U.S. continued. In Asia, there were some good news. SK Hynix set a record quarterly profit. South Korea's economic growth was the fastest in six years. And Japan's manufacturing sector expanded at its highest pace in four years. The big question is whether this momentum (now mostly historical) will continue. Early in the session, indexes in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan set records. However, these gains were quickly reversed, and it was a sea red on most bourses when the trading day began. Investors have a hard time taking a risk, especially after Iran seized two vessels in the Strait of?Hormuz. A fragile ceasefire is also in doubt. Shipping and security sources reported that the U.S. Military intercepted three Iranian flagged tankers and diverted them from their positions near India and Malaysia, as well as Sri Lanka. Brent crude futures are back to $100 per barrel. Another busy day in Europe, with more corporate results and a number of PMI flash readings due from the UK. Germany, France, and the wider euro zone. Companies from consumer goods to travel and mining are already warning of the impact that the "Middle East War" is having on costs, supply chains, and consumer confidence. The government is also beginning to raise the alarm about the impact of higher energy prices on their economies. New Zealand's recovery is delayed, but not derailed. Finance Minister Nicola Willis stated on Thursday that the conflict had risen fuel?costs, and impacted business and consumer sentiment. This comes after Germany's Economy Ministry cut its growth projections for 2026-2027 and increased its inflation forecasts. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Thursday. - UK, France, Germany, euro zone flash PMIs (April) Nokia, J Sainsbury and Orion Oyj earnings
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Hormuz still disrupts shipping, despite lack of progress in US-Iran negotiations
The oil prices continued to rise 'on Thursday, despite the fact that 'peace talks' between Iran and the United States had stalled and both countries maintained their restrictions on trade flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures were up $1.37 or 1.3% to $103.28 per barrel at 0410 GMT after Wednesday's settlement above $100 was the first in over two weeks. West Texas Intermediate futures also rose $1.52 or 1.6% to $94.48. The benchmarks for both closed Wednesday more than $3 higher after larger-than expected?gasoline stock withdrawals in the U.S. and the failure of the Iran peace talks. In a recent note, ING analysts said that the oil market was repricing expectations with little progress being made in finding a solution in the Persian Gulf. They added that hope for a resolution is fading because peace talks are stalling. The seizure of Iranian vessels that were attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz by Iran suggests that disruptions in shipments will continue. Iran and the United States have agreed to a ceasefire after a request from Pakistani mediators. The strait is still closed to?ships, which used to carry about 20% of the daily oil supply in the world until the conflict began on February 28, 2018. Iran has tightened its grip over the strategic chokepoint by seizing two ships on Wednesday. Trump has also maintained the U.S. Navy's blockade on Iran's maritime trade. Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, who is also a top negotiator and leader of Iran’s negotiations, said that a complete ceasefire would only make sense if this blockade were lifted. Shipping and security sources reported on Wednesday that the U.S. Military has intercepted at least 3 Iranian flagged tankers in Asian waters, and are redirecting them from positions near India and Malaysia, as well as Sri Lanka. Trump's extension of the ceasefire on Tuesday was a last-minute retreat from his warnings to bomb Iran’s power plants and bridges. White House Press Secretary KarolineLeavitt informed reporters that Trump had not set a date for the end of the extended ceasefire. U.S. EXPORTS SET A RECORD HIGH Energy trade: Total exports of crude oil and petroleum products from United States rose by 137,000 barrels a day to a "record" 12.88 million barrels bpd, as Asian and European nations bought up supplies following disruptions due to the Iran War. The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that U.S. crude stock levels rose, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell. The?inventory of crude oil rose by 1.9million barrels, as opposed to the 1.2million-barrel expectation in a recent poll. Analysts had predicted a draw of 1.5 million barrels. Distillate stocks fell by 3.4m barrels, compared to expectations of a drop of 2.5m barrels. (Reporting from Arathy Chow and Emily Chow, both in Singapore; editing by Tom Hogue and Shri Navaratnam.)
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Asian shares fall from record highs on oil gains due to Iran risk
Asian shares fell from record highs as investors pulled?some money from the table after a 'technology-driven rally. Oil prices rose for the 'fourth? straight day, as the fragile Middle East ceasefire hung in balance. Overnight, S&P 500 rose 1%, and Nasdaq increased 1.6%, to set new record-breaking highs. This was helped by the strong start of earnings season, which has eased consumer concerns over the U.S. economy despite the rising cost of energy due to the Iran War. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan, which tracks Wall Street, had risen to a record 831.56 point before selling began. Last down 0.7%. Japan's Nikkei index reached a new record for the second consecutive day, before falling by over 1%. Taiwan and South Korea's markets also reached new highs before turning lower. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 0.9% and China's blue-chip index dropped 0.3% Brent crude futures rose another 1.3% to $103.18 per barrel on Thursday, after a 3.5% increase overnight. Iran captured two container vessels on Wednesday, preventing them from leaving the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. Investors are watching to see if the fragile ceasefire in Middle East will last. Nick Twidale is the chief market strategist of ATFX Global. He said that the increasing tensions in the Middle East are starting to scare investors, as more ship seizures are eroding hopes for further peace talks. The spike in Wall Street performance overnight was followed by a pullback, which was a reaction to the events taking place in the Middle East. After the earnings-driven rally in Asia, Wall Street futures declined. Nasdaq futures were down 0.5% and S&P futures were down 0.7%. European stock futures anticipate a weaker opening, with panregional futures down by 1.1%. Shares of GE Vernova surged 13.75% after the power equipment maker raised ?its annual revenue forecast on the AI boom, and Boeing advanced over 5% after a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss. Tesla, the electric automaker, reported a positive surprise in its first-quarter?free cashflow, but investors were sceptical about its plans to spend more on AI and robots. Its shares fell 2% following the bell. Treasury yields increased. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury rose by 2 basis points, to 3.8106%. It had risen?1 basis point on Wednesday. The 10-year yield rose 2 basis points to 4.3174% after being little changed overnight. The dollar held onto its small overnight gains. The?euro remained steady at $1.17 after losing 0.3% overnight. It was just above the?10-day lowest of $1.1691 Markets are remarkably effective at identifying risks, and this may continue. The list of risks continues to grow as solutions remain elusive, said Laura Cooper. Global investment strategist for asset manager Nuveen. "The dissonance can't last forever... At some stage, what is ignored may become the only thing that matters." (Editing by Kim Coghill & Shri Navaratnam).
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Gold drops on inflation fears fueled by oil; US-Iran developments are in focus
As investors sought clarity about the stalled U.S.-Iran peace talks, gold fell in choppy trading on Thursday. As of 0215 GMT, spot gold was down 0.7% to $4,705.09 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery fell 0.6% to $4722.10. Brent crude oil prices remain above $100 per barrel despite a larger than expected gasoline and distillate stock draw in the United States. Also, the peace talks have not progressed. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said that the sight of Brent Oil back at triple-digits keeps inflation worries in the forefront and puts gold on the backfoot today. A rise in crude oil prices can stoke the inflation rate by increasing transportation and production costs. This increases the probability of higher interest rates. Gold is considered an inflation hedge. However, as interest rates rise, yield-bearing investments become more appealing, and this reduces the appeal of bullion. Iran seizes two ships in the Strait of Hormuz, tightening their grip on this strategic waterway. This comes after U.S. president Donald Trump called off the attacks and there was no sign of peace talks resuming. Trump has maintained the U.S. Navy's blockade of Iran's maritime trade. Iran's parliament leader and top negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf stated that a complete ceasefire would only make sense if it was lifted. "Investors are worried that this 'ceasefire-plus-blockade' status quo could drag on for months, ?turning a short-term ?spike into a long-term inflationary anchor, which would hurt gold from a yield perspective," said Waterer. A poll of economists revealed that the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to wait at least six months before reducing interest rates in this year, as energy shocks caused by war will reignite inflation. The traders now expect a 23% probability of a Fed rate reduction of 25 basis points in December, down from a 28% chance one week ago. There were two expected reductions in this year's budget before the war. Silver spot fell by 1.4%, to $76.64 an ounce. Platinum dropped 1.3%, to $2,048.25. Palladium, at $1,529.25, was down 1%. (Reporting by Noel John in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
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Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signss bill to prohibit DEI in local government
The Republican Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has signed a law on Wednesday that prohibits local government in his state from promoting and?funding?diversity?initiatives. He claims such programs are discriminatory against certain groups, like white men. Republican state leaders in the United States and President Donald Trump’s administration have rallied to oppose diversity, equity and inclusive (DEI). Civil rights activists say DEI practices address historical inequities faced by marginalized groups such as women, the LGBT and racial/ethnic minorities. DeSantis stated on Wednesday that "I think the white males have been discriminated against" by DEI. DeSantis’ office stated that the bill prohibits local government from establishing or maintaining DEI programs or offices. It also provides enforcement mechanisms including 'penalties' for officials who violate this law. Republicans have repressed DEI in state and federal government because they deem diversity programs to be anti-merit, and discriminatory towards groups such as white men and women. Trump signed executive orders that directed the demise of DEI policies in federal agencies, the private sector and government contractors?and subcontractors. Trump has also tried to freeze federal funding for colleges and universities in the DEI dispute. DEI practices include, among other things, training in combating discrimination and addressing pay disparities along racial or gender lines, as well as enhancing recruitment and access to underrepresented ethnic groups. DeSantis signed a bill that prohibits initiatives related to climate changes. His office stated that the law would prevent any new taxes, fees, or penalties associated with carbon emissions. Rights advocates have criticised Republicans for "cracking down" on DEI initiatives, climate initiatives, the rights of transgenders and pro-Palestinian demonstrations against U.S. allies Israel's attack on Gaza. Civil rights groups claim that such actions violate the right to free speech and due process. Republicans claim that their actions are against "woke," far-left, and anti-American ideologies. DeSantis, who took office earlier this month signed a law that gives him and other officials of the state the authority to label groups as terrorist organizations.
HSBC lowers India's rating to 'underweight" as oil price shock clouds earnings recovery
HSBC has downgraded Indian equities from "neutral" to "underweight", its second reduction in less than a week, as it believes that the surging energy costs triggered by the Middle 'East war will threaten the enduring strength of India's earnings recovery.
Brent crude has risen by 42% since late February when the conflict began. It is now trading at over $100 per barrel, increasing inflation and growth risk for the third largest oil importer in the world.
HSBC stated in a note published on Thursday that "India looks less attractive compared to North East Asian counterparts in the current macro-environment". The benchmark Nifty 50 index and Sensex have fallen 6.7% and '7.9% respectively this year, making them among the worst performing global markets.
HSBC believes that oil and gas markets will remain tight for the majority of the quarters in June and September. In this context, HSBC expects consensus earnings forecasts of 16% growth year-on-year for 2026 to be revised downward. Earnings growth could be reduced by 1.5 percentage points if crude oil prices increase 20%.
The brokerage stated that even though domestic equity valuations had corrected from their peaks they could 'appear expensive again' as earnings downgrades are filtered through.
The report also highlighted foreign investor concerns including the rupee depreciation risk if oil prices remain high amid increasing concerns about the impact of "artificial intelligence" on Indian software services.
In 2026, foreign portfolio investors will have sold Indian stocks worth $18.5 billion after selling stocks worth $18.9 last year.
HSBC stated that while domestic flows remain positive, especially through?SIPs and IPOs, a stronger IPO after a weaker first quarter due to the season may require a resurgence in foreign demand.
The report emphasized that there are still some opportunities in private banks, healthcare and base metals, but overall, the case for Indian equity has declined.
(source: Reuters)