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Treasuries and dollar fall due to trade war causing recession fears. US stocks rise

On Wednesday, the latest escalation of the trade war between China and the United States rattled the global markets. Treasuries fell and the U.S. Dollar dropped in a saleoff of certain U.S. assets.

U.S. shares edged up, but trading was still choppy. Investors weighed if recent sharp selling had been overdone. U.S. President Donald Trump’s 104% tariffs against China went into effect on March 21, prompting Beijing to retaliate with duties of 84%.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes yields rose to a record high of seven weeks on the back of what appeared to large liquidations. Trading volumes overnight were more than four-times the average. Bond yields are opposite of prices.

The increase in yields on the Asian trading session increased fears that China was selling a large part of its U.S. Bond holdings.

The demand for longer-dated bonds will be tested with the sale of $39 billion of 10-year notes Wednesday afternoon, and a $22 million auction of 30-year bond on Thursday.

Investors worry that Trump's tariffs are so severe they will trigger a recession, forcing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

George Saravelos, head of Deutsche Bank's foreign exchange research, said that the push-out of Treasuries could signal a loss of investor interest in U.S. assets and the "end of an era."

We are seeing a simultaneous fall in the value of all U.S. assets, including stocks, dollar against alternative reserve FXs and the bond markets. He said that we are entering uncharted terrain in the global financial systems.

Investors fled from the dollar, which is often seen as a safe-haven currency in turbulent times, to the Swiss Franc and gold.

The ING economists said that "this seemingly'sell America trade' is now dominating the theme of rising recession risks that would normally have pushed yields downward."

The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket of currencies, including the yen, the euro and others) fell by 0.39%, while the euro rose by 0.68%, reaching $1.1031. The dollar fell 0.77% against the Japanese yen to 145.15.

The dollar fell 0.66% against the Swiss Franc to 0.842. Gold spot rose 3.53%, to $3.088.80 per ounce. Investors compared the violent selling of Treasuries to the panicked rush for cash at the beginning of the COVID-19 Pandemic, which began in March 2020. It reignited concerns about the fragility of the world's largest bond market.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes increased 19.2 basis points, to 4.45% from 4.26% at late Tuesday.

U.S. STOCKS INCH UP U.S. stock prices were slightly higher at midday New York trading.

The Cboe Volatility Index, Wall Street's fear gauge was down. It reached its highest level in August this week.

In the upcoming U.S. quarter earnings season, more insight will be gained into the health and performance of corporate America. U.S. Banks, including JPMorgan Chase are due to release their first-quarter results this Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average grew 167.93, or 0.45% to 37,813.52. The S&P 500 rose by 33.11, or 0.67% to 5,015.97. And the Nasdaq Composite jumped 217.21, or 1.43% to 15,486.85.

According to LSEG, as of Tuesday's closing, S&P companies had lost $5.8 billion in stock market value following Trump's announcement on tariffs late last Wednesday. This is the largest four-day decline since the benchmark's creation in the 1950s.

The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 1.97 points or 0.32% to 740.61. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell 3.5%.

Analysts at JPMorgan thought that the rapid escalation of U.S. Tariffs against China would be disruptive enough to send the global economy into a recession.

In a client note, they stated that "given the import bill from China the China tariff is equivalent to a whopping tax hike of $400 billion on U.S. businesses and households." The currency will likely be used as a release valve by China's policymakers.

The oil prices fell as concerns over the future of global energy demand outweighed geopolitical worries.

U.S. crude dropped 3.84%, to $57.29 per barrel. Brent was down to $60.50 a barrel.

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(source: Reuters)