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Stocks and oil drop as US-China trade war escalates

The major stock indexes declined on Tuesday, as the trade conflict between the United States of America and China intensified. Oil prices and the U.S. Dollar also fell.

The United States has said

104% duties

Imports from China are subject to a ban that will go into effect just after midnight. News of the slowing economy and rising inflation has caused stocks to plummet since last week.

According to LSEG, S&P 500 companies lost $5.8 trillion since Donald Trump announced tariffs late on Wednesday. This is the largest four-day decline since the benchmark was established in the 1950s.

The U.S. Treasury curve steepened to its highest level since February 2022 as the longer-dated yields rose on supply concerns.

Wall Street saw the S&P 500 close below 5,000 for almost a full year. The stock market had opened the day sharply higher amid investor optimism about Washington's willingness to negotiate some of its aggressive trade tariffs.

"People wanted optimism and realized that they had no good reason to do so," said Melissa Brown. She is the managing director of investment decision research at SimCorp.

The Cboe Volatility Index climbed for the fourth consecutive session, and reached its highest level since April 1, 2019.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the Trump administration is also negotiating trade deals with other countries, such as Japan. The discussions were a result of numerous calls from different countries.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 320.01 or 0.84% to 37,645.59; the S&P 500 declined 79.48 or 1.57% to 4,982.77; and the Nasdaq Composite lost 335.35 or 2.15% to 15,267.91.

The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 2.52 points or 0.34% to 742.96. The pan-European STOXX 600 rose by 2.72%.

Investors anticipate the release of U.S. earnings quarterly reports in this week.

Adam Sarhan of 50 Park Investments, New York, stated that positive results could be a catalyst for stocks.

JPMorgan Chase will be the first to report results, followed by Citigroup and Wells Fargo. Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase's CEO, has warned trade wars can have long-lasting negative effects. These include inflation and recession.

The curve between the yields of two-year and 10-year notes steepened to 57 basis point on a volatile trading day.

The benchmark yield for the 10-year note rose to a 11-day-high on concerns about a weak demand for U.S. government bonds with longer maturities before Wednesday's sale.

The yield on the 10-year bond was up 12.6% basis points for the day, at 4.283%. It dropped to 3.86%, its lowest level since October 4.

The yield on the two-year interest rate sensitive bond reversed a previous increase, falling 2.3 basis points and reaching 3.715%. On Monday, it had fallen to 3.435%, its lowest level since September 2022.

After reports that German parties had formed a coalition, the euro rose. The U.S. Dollar fell against other major currencies while China's offshore Yuan reached a new record low. The reports also led to a rise in European equity index futures.

Germany's conservatives under chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz on Tuesday reached a deal with the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) to form a government, NTV reported. Two people who are familiar with the matter have denied that any deal has been made.

The dollar has been weakened against major currencies due to the turmoil caused by tariffs.

The dollar index fell by 0.48%, to 102.92, measuring the greenback in relation to a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies.

The U.S.-China Trade War escalated, and oil prices fell amid recession fears.

Brent futures dropped $1.39 or 2.16% to settle at $62.82 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures fell $1.12 or 1.85% to settle at $59.58.

(source: Reuters)