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The global trade situation is further complicated by the contradictory statements of US and China.
In an interview published Friday, U.S. president Donald Trump claimed that tariff negotiations with China were in progress, but Beijing denied there were any talks taking place. This is the latest in a string of contradictory signals about what progress has been made in de-escalating a trade conflict that threatens to sap global economic growth. Trump told TIME that talks were underway and that Chinese President Xi Jinping called him. He repeated this claim to reporters on his way out of the White House to Rome for the funeral service of Pope Francis. China responded in a statement from its foreign ministry posted by the Chinese embassy in the U.S., "China and the U.S. have NOT been in consultation or negotiations on #tariffs." "The U.S. shouldn't be creating confusion." Speaking to reporters on Air Force One, Trump said that it would be a great win for the United States if China opened its markets to U.S. goods and that tariffs might help make this happen. "Free China. "Let's go into China and work it," he said. "That would be fantastic. It would be great, but I am not sure I will ask for it. They don't want the door open. The back and forth added to the uncertainty over the current state of play regarding Trump's erratic policy. Not only in regards to China, but as it pertains the dozens countries scrambling for their own deals to relieve the burden of hefty import tax he unleashed after returning to the White House. His team of negotiators conducted what was a lightning round trade talks with the foreign officials that had flooded Washington this week to attend the spring meetings for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Group. While Trump officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, touted signs of rapid progress, their counterparts, such as the finance chiefs from the IMF, were more circumspect. They were also urged to return home urgently in order to reduce the risk posed by the tariffs. Paschal Donohoe, Irish Finance Minister, said: "I am walking away from these meeting with a clear understanding of what is at stake, and the risks there are for jobs, growth, and living standards around the world." The meetings here reminded me why we must leave no stone unturned over the next few months and weeks to find ways to reduce uncertainty. DE-ESCALATION There were some signs of de-escalation, even though it was unclear whether or not deals would be struck to prevent the imposition of higher tariffs in early July. China has exempted certain U.S. products from its high tariffs. Business groups claim that Beijing allowed U.S. pharmaceuticals to enter China without paying the 125% duty it imposed in response to Trump’s 145% tariffs. A list of 131 categories of products that are allegedly being considered for exemptions is also circulating in some business and trade groups. The list includes chemicals, vaccines and jet engines. China has yet to make a public statement on the matter. Trump's administration also signaled in recent days that it was looking to defuse tensions with China. Bessent said both sides view the current situation as untenable. Trump also told reporters in the White House that an agreement with Japan was close. Analysts see this as a test case for other bilateral agreements, even though the talks may be difficult. Many expect Shigeru Shiba, the Prime Minister of Japan, and Donald Trump to announce an agreement when they meet in Canada at the G7 Summit in June. Trump told TIME he made "200 deals", which he said would be finished in three to four weeks. He declined to give specifics. He said that if tariffs remained between 20% and 50% in a year, he would call it a victory. Trump has claimed that his thickets of trade barriers would revive U.S. Manufacturing Industries that have been hollowed by global competition. However, economists warn that this would increase prices for U.S. customers and the risk of recession. U.S. stock indexes are on track to gain a week, even though they have fallen by about 10% since Trump took office in January. They lag other countries' indexes, and the dollar is falling at an unprecedented pace. The dollar rose for the first time in over a month on Friday, while European and Asian shares were headed to a second consecutive week of gains. Investors took comfort from signs that the U.S. was willing to end its trade war with China. Wall Street's major indexes grew slightly as investors sought clarity on the U.S./China trade front. Trump has imposed additional tariffs on autos, steel and aluminum in addition to country-specific duties. Trump has also proposed additional levies for the pharmaceutical and semiconductor industries. According to industry estimates, this could lead to a 12.9% increase in drug prices across the U.S. The tariffs of Donald Trump dominated the IMF meetings in this week. Finance ministers vied for one-on-1 meetings with the U.S. Treasury secretary. Bessent described the initial talks with South Korea on Thursday as "very succesful." Seoul referred to it as a "good beginning." Next week, further discussions will take place. Switzerland said that it was also satisfied with the initial meeting between Bessent and Switzerland. The U.S. Trade Office said that it was "constantly engaging" with Japan and others, but Trump would decide whether or not they proceed. The IMF's Kristalina Gheorgieva warned that the lack of progress in other countries could lead to a serious slowdown of global growth. Reporting by Bureaus Worldwide; Writing by Andy Sullivan, Dan Burns and Editing by Chizu Nomiyama, Marguerita Choy
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Dollar gains and tech shares are boosting the stock market
The majority of stock indexes rose on Friday. The Nasdaq was up over 1% during afternoon trading, as shares related to tech gained. Meanwhile, the dollar is headed for its biggest weekly gain in more than a month. Alphabet, the parent company of Google, saw its shares rise 1.5% on Nasdaq after exceeding profit expectations and reaffirming AI spending targets. This earnings season, uncertainty surrounding the impact of U.S. president Donald Trump's tariff offense and the global trade tensions that resulted have dominated the results calls. Trump claimed in an interview published on Friday that tariff talks with China were in progress, but Beijing denied there were any discussions taking place. This is the latest of a series conflicting signals about what progress has been made in de-escalating a trade battle that threatens to sap global economic growth. Trump told Time magazine there were talks taking place, and that Xi Jinping, the Chinese president had called him. The tit-for-tat tariffs, which began on April 2, when Trump announced hefty import duties, had threatened to stall the trade between two of the world's largest economies. They also sparked concerns of a global slowdown. Chip Rewey of Rewey Asset Management in New Jersey, an investment adviser registered with the state, said: "This week, you may have felt some relief that the worst-case scenario of Trump's tariff actions will not come true." We haven't yet returned to the highs. "I think we'll be somewhere between those two ranges for a long time." The S&P 500 is expected to rise for the week while Europe's STOXX 600 has risen more than 2% in the past week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 14.98 points or 0.04% to 40,108.31. The S&P 500 gained 33.83 points or 0.62% to 5,518.60. And the Nasdaq Composite increased 182.65 points or 1.07% to 17,349.66. The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 4.47 points or 0.54% to 824.28. The pan-European STOXX 600 ended with a gain of 0.35%. The Nikkei 225 index rose 1.8% in Japan on Friday. It has recovered all of its losses following Trump's announcement that the United States would be imposing the highest tariffs it had ever seen. Trump suspended most of these tariffs, with the exception of China, which will have a 10% tariff. The dollar has recovered slightly in relation to the euro and the yen after taking a hit due to the tariff news. The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket including the yen, the euro and others) rose by 0.07%, reaching 99.49. Meanwhile, the euro fell 0.1%, at $1.1377. The dollar gained 0.66% against the Japanese yen to reach 143.56. The price of gold, which has risen this year due to investors seeking safe haven assets that are not tied to the dollar, was last down by 1.94% on Friday, at $3,283.21 per ounce. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes dropped 3.7 basis points, to 4.268% from 4.305% at late Thursday. U.S. Treasury rates declined after recent hopes that the U.S. China trade war would ease and investors considered the possibility of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates if economic activity slowed.
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Burkina Faso grants mining license to Russia's Nordgold project
The military-led West African Government announced that Burkina Faso had granted an industrial mining license to Russian miner Nordgold to develop a gold project. This was to capitalize on the record high gold prices and strengthen an economy that has been hit by insecurity. The move is a sign of the deepening economic relations between Russia and Burkina Faso as the junta which seized power in Burkina Faso in 2022 continues to pivot away from its traditional Western allies toward Moscow. The Niou gold deposit is located in Burkina Plateau-Central's Kourweogo Province. It covers an area of 52.8 square kilometers (20.44 square miles). This area was previously owned by Jilbey Burkina and now belongs to Nordgold. Nordgold operates the Bissa, Bouly and Bouly mines. The Council of Ministers announced late Thursday that it expected the Niou Mine to produce approximately 20,22 metric tonnes of gold in its eight-year lifespan. Jilbey Burkina retains 85% of the project while the Burkinabe Government will own the remaining 15%, without any financial contribution. This is in line with the new mining regulations in the country. The council of ministers stated that the project would contribute over the course of its life 51.5 billion CFA Francs ($89million) to the budget and 7.06 billion CFA Francs to the mineral wealth fund. The geopolitical instabilities and the trade policies of U.S. president Donald Trump have driven gold prices up by more than 25% this year. Burkina Faso is a major producer of gold. The country has been fighting jihadist militants in Burkina Faso since 2015. Swissaid, a non-governmental organization that analyses mining, estimates the country's production at over 57 tonnes in 2023. There are several mining companies in the region, including Endeavour Mining and IAMGOLD from Canada and West African Resources Ltd. The cooperation with Nordgold, and other industrial mines are important for Burkina Faso's government as it faces budget constraints. Ulf Laessing is the head of the Sahel program at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Germany. He said that the Niou project would be located in an area of large artisanal mines and could deprive people who work as artisanal gold miners from important income. The government stated that the mine would create 204 jobs and also help sustain employment at Bissa Gold SA, which is located nearby. (Reporting from the newsroom, with additional reporting by Maxwell Akalaare Adombila. Editing by Maxwell Akalaare Adombila and Portia Crowe.
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LyondellBasell's quarterly profit forecast is missed due to weak volume
LyondellBasell missed Wall Street's expectations of quarterly profit on Friday due to maintenance downtime, lower volumes and its largest segment, supplying raw materials for the automotive, construction, and electronics industries. The chemical industry has been suffering due to a slump in demand and the rising cost of raw materials, particularly in Europe. Businesses are also being forced to reconsider their strategy in the region due to the strict regulatory environment. LyondellBasell has launched a $500 million initiative to increase earnings in order to navigate the continued macroeconomic volatility. The company stated on a earnings call that they have cut costs by around $300 million due to portfolio management measures such as refining exits from businesses and a strategic review of their European operations. LyondellBasell said it will provide an update on five European assets that are still being reviewed by the middle of the year. Eastman Chemical announced on Thursday cost-cutting initiatives in response to the market volatility. This was partly due to renewed trade concerns resulting from President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. The business activity in the Eurozone barely increased in February as a slight increase in services barely compensated for the ongoing decline in manufacturing. LyondellBasell’s largest segment in terms of sales volume, olefins and polyolefins, Americas, reported core adjusted earnings of $251 millions, down from the $521 million earned last year as higher feedstock prices impacted margins. The adjusted core profit for its Intermediates & Derivatives segment, which produces oxyfuels, intermediate chemicals and intermediate chemicals, dropped 69.9% from the previous period to $94 millions. In the second quarter, the company anticipates that seasonal demand will improve across all businesses. According to data compiled and analyzed by LSEG, on an adjusted basis the company reported a quarterly profit in the amount of 33 cents. This was below analysts' estimates of 43 cents. (Reporting and editing by Vijay Kishore in Bengaluru, Shailesh Kumar, and Pooja Menon)
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The FX effect has a negative impact on the pre-tax profits of Chilean miner Codelco
Codelco Chile, the largest copper producer in the world, reported on Friday a slight increase in production for the first quarter. However, this was not enough to offset the exchange rate effects that caused the company's profits to plummet. Codelco reported a 53% decline in pre-tax profits compared to the same period last year, falling to $213 millions for the first quarter of the year. The state-owned company said that its own production increased by 0.3% to total 296,000 metric tonnes, while total production, including its stakes at Freeport's El Abra and Anglo American Sur, as well as Teck's Quebrada blanca, rose 1.6% to total 324,000 metric tonnage. The miner aims to increase output for the second consecutive year after it fell to a quarter century low in 2023. Codelco reported that rains in the first quarter and a nationwide power outage in February reduced copper production by 10,000 tonnes. Codelco reported that core earnings (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization, or EBITDA) fell by nearly 12%, to $1.35billion, as the peso currency lost value. The Chilean Peso increased by 2.76 percent from March 2024 until March 2019. Codelco said that the company had experienced rising costs as a result of planned maintenance at mines and plants, as well higher operating costs in equipment leasing. These costs were partially offset by lower input costs, such as power and fuel. The miner stated that the Andesita segment is expected to begin production at El Teniente in the second quarter, followed by Andes Norte in the third. The ramp-up at Rajo Inca in Codelco’s Salvador Division is expected to finish in the third quarter. Reporting by Fabian Cambero, Natalia Siniawski and Alistair Bell; editing by Kyrry Madry and Alistair Bell
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Dollar gains and stock prices mostly rise on the hopes of a trade war ease
Investors were comforted by signs that the U.S./China trade war was easing. Alphabet, the parent company of Google, saw its shares rise 1.7% on Wall Street after exceeding profit expectations and reaffirming AI spending targets. There is uncertainty surrounding the impact of Donald Trump, U.S. president. Tarif This earnings season, the focus has been on global trade tensions and their impact on offensive. China has exempted certain products from the steep tariffs it imposes on U.S. imported goods. However, Beijing refuted Trump's claim that trade negotiations are underway. The tit-for-tat tariffs, which began on April 2, when Trump announced hefty import duties, had threatened to stall the trade between two of the world's largest economies. They also sparked concerns of a global slowdown. Chip Rewey is the CIO at Rewey Asset Management in New Jersey, an investment advisor registered with the state. We haven't yet returned to the highs. "I think we'll be somewhere between those two ranges for a long time." The S&P 500 is expected to rise for the week while Europe's STOXX 600 has risen more than 2% in the past week. Investors digested an interview Trump gave to Time magazine in which he claimed that high tariffs on imports from abroad a year hence would be a "total win". The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 132.71, or 0.33 percent, to 39,960.69. The S&P 500 rose by 4.96 points or 0.09% to 5,489.56, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 55.24, or 0.32 percent, to 17,221.29. The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 1.54 points or 0.19% to 821.40. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index rose by 0.35%. The Nikkei 225 index rose 1.8% in Japan on Friday. It has recovered all of its losses following Trump's announcement that the United States would be imposing the highest tariffs it had ever seen. Trump suspended most of these tariffs, with the exception of China, which will have a 10% tariff. The dollar was slightly higher against the yen and euro, after a turbulent few weeks that saw tariff announcements and reversals, as well as a flight from U.S. assets. The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket including the yen, the euro and others) rose by 0.05%, reaching 99.47. Meanwhile, the euro fell 0.04%, at $1.1384. The dollar gained 0.77% against the Japanese yen to reach 143.72. The price of gold, which has risen this year due to investors seeking safe assets that are not tied to the dollar, was last down by 1.94% on Friday, at $3,283.21 per ounce. U.S. crude climbed 0.19% to $62.91 per barrel. Brent rose to $66.71 per barrel, up by 0.24% for the day. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes dropped 4.9 basis points from Thursday's 4.305% to 4.257%.
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China's Baosteel Q1 Net Profit Jumps 26.4% due to Lower Costs
Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., China's largest listed steelmaker reported a 26.4% increase in net profit for the first quarter of this year, thanks to lower costs. However, it warned that rising trade tensions pose a persistent risk. In a filing with the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the company known as Baosteel said that it had earned approximately 2.43 billion Yuan ($333.43 millions) over the past quarter. This is up from 1.93 million Yuan during the same period of 2024. Baosteel reported that despite the challenges of a weak steel market and falling prices, it managed to reduce costs due to the more dramatic fall in the price of coking coal than steel. The report said that steel prices fell 9.9% and coking coal prices dropped by 36.1% in the last quarter. Baosteel reported in a separate filing a 38.4% annual decline in its net profits in 2024, which fell to 7.36 billion Yuan. Baosteel, a subsidiary owned by the China Baowu Steel Group (the world's biggest steel producer in terms of output), is the largest steelmaker in the world. Between January and March, the company produced 11.55 million metric tonnes of iron. It plans to produce 48.79 and 52.61 millions tons of iron in 2025. The company received orders for 1.55 million tonnes of steel last quarter, after shipping a record 6.07 million tonnes of steel in 2024. This represents a 3.9% increase year-on-year. The company stated that "in 2025 the external environment will be more complex and uncertain, and trade tensions risks will remain prominent... Profitability will continue to face downward pressure due to the mismatch between demand and supply."
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Reliance Industries Q4 profits beat estimates due to retail and digital boost
Reliance Industries, India's largest company, beat expectations for its fourth-quarter profits on Friday as strong performances in its retail and digital business offset the weakness in its Oil-to-Chemicals (O2C), unit. According to LSEG, the Mukesh Ambani conglomerate reported a consolidated net profit of 194.07 trillion rupees (2.27 billion dollars) for the three-month period ended March 31. This was higher than analysts' expectations (188.77 trillion rupees), according to LSEG. The company reported that the EBITDA (earnings before taxes, depreciation and amortization) of its mainstay O2C businesses fell by 10% as a result of a weakness in transportation fuel cracks. The EBITDA of its digital services segment, including Jio's telecom unit, grew 18%. Jio Platforms reported a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25.7% compared to a year ago, thanks in part to the cellular tariff increases implemented last year. Jio Infocomm’s average revenue per customer (ARPU), a key metric in telecoms, rose 13.5% to 206.8 rupees. The company reported that net additions improved following the impact on the tariff increase, adding 6.1 million new subscribers in the quarter of January-March. Retail's EBITDA grew by 14% in the first quarter of this year, driven primarily by increased efficiencies and better product mix. Reliance Retail, Jio and the Energy Segment have been the main drivers of the company's earnings in the last two quarters. Lower margins and lower demand has hit the energy segment. Jamnagar, a complex that houses two refineries, with a combined daily capacity of 1.4 million barrels, has been historically the heart of Reliance’s O2C operation and a major profit generator. The O2C segment has been impacted by a decrease in the refining margins and the chemical margins in fiscal year 2024-25. "FY2025 was a challenging business year, due to the weak macroeconomic environment and shifting geopolitical terrain. "Significant demand-supply differences in downstream chemical markets have resulted in multi-year low profit margins", Chairman Mukesh said in a press release. V Srikanth, the company's Chief Financial Officer, said during a conference call that it has also installed a Gigawatt-scale assembly line for solar photovoltaic modules (PV). The company has set out to build a factory that can produce solar PV modules from start to finish. It aims to have a capacity of 10 GW. (Reporting and editing by Sethuraman N; Anil D'Silva).
Gold and equity futures rise after Trump's tariffs
Investors worried about U.S. president Donald Trump's announcement that 10% tariffs will be applied to all imports with higher rates for certain trading partners, fell into the equity futures market on Wednesday following the U.S. stock market closing. Gold and bonds were also up in price as they are considered safe havens.
S&P 500 Eminis futures rose initially after Wall Street closed higher in the regular session, but lost ground when Trump detailed his tariff plans at a White House Rose Garden Event.
S&P futures dropped 1.6% after Trump's speech, while Nasdaq Futures fell 2.4%.
Trump, who referred to the day as "Liberation Day", has announced a number of tariffs for various countries, including 34% on imports coming from China, 20% on imports coming from the European Union, and 24% on Japan imports.
He also announced a 25% tariff on cars, light trucks and engines.
When the press conference began, the President announced that tariffs would begin with a baseline of 10% across the board. This was better than anticipated, and that's why futures rallied," said Chris Zaccarelli. Chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, Charlotte, North Carolina.
Zaccarelli continued, "But as soon as he started to give examples that were higher than 10% - the futures went from positive to negative."
In the short term, tariffs will increase costs and decrease corporate profits. "If we have a reshaping the economy, markets will have a very different judgement, but in the short term, the knee-jerk response is to initial price increases."
On Wednesday, investors focused on the announcement of reciprocal taxes.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the session up 235.36, or 0.56%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 gained 37.90, or 0.67%. The Nasdaq Composite ended the session with a gain of 151.16 or 0.87% at 17,601.05.
The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 3.96 points (0.48%) to 836.11.
Some investors have noted that the future of the market will depend on how U.S. trading partner's respond.
"We only have one side to the story - what we do." Walter Todd, Chief Investment Officer at Greenwood Capital, Greenwood, South Carolina, said: "The other side is how other countries react to what we are doing."
Todd said it would be "a major component of how the market will ultimately digest what is said right now."
After the announcements, gold prices are moving closer to records highs. This is due to safe-haven flows.
Spot gold increased by 0.64%, to $3.130.38 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures increased 1.3% to $3.159.30 per ounce.
After Trump's tariff announcement, U.S. Treasury rates fell. Two-year yields dropped to their lowest levels in three weeks.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes dropped 1.6 basis points, to 4.14% from 4.156% at late Tuesday. The 30-year bond rate fell 0.5 basis point to 4.5098%, from 4.515% on Tuesday.
The yield on the 2-year bond, which is usually in line with expectations of interest rates for the Federal Reserve fell by 0.5 basis points, to 3.858% from 3.863% at late Tuesday.
The dollar has lost its currency value.
The euro rose 0.38% to $1.0834, while the sterling strengthened by 0.54% at $1.2989.
The dollar fell 0.17% against the Japanese yen to 149.36.
Oil prices on energy markets fell after tariff news raised fears that a trade war could dampen crude demand.
U.S. crude dropped 0.27%, to $71.00 per barrel after rising 0.72%. Brent, however, fell to $74.07 a barrel, down by 0.59%, after having settled at $74.95 a barrel. (Reporting from Sinead carew in New York and London, Amanda Cooper in Singapore, Ankur Banerjee, in Singapore, and Tomaszjanowski, Alex Richardson Matthew Lewis, Nia Williams, and Tomaszjanowski)
(source: Reuters)