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Silver extends its rally above $60; gold dips ahead Fed decision
The gold price fell on Wednesday, as investors awaited a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve and clues about future policy. Silver prices meanwhile?extended? their rally to new heights. At 1113 GMT, spot gold had fallen 0.4% to $4193.60 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery were down 0.3% at $4,221.60 an ounce. Spot silver rose 0.7% to $61.11/oz, after reaching an all-time record of $61.61 in the previous session. This was due to rising industrial demand, falling inventories and its designation by?the United States as a critical metal. The white metal is up 112% this year. Silver broke through the $60 an ounce mark, attracting more short-term traders and trend followers to the market. Carsten Menke, Julius Baer's analyst, said that this also reflects a narrative of a physical tightness on the silver market. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting ends later. A rate cut is expected to be announced by 1900 GMT, and Jerome Powell will speak at 1930 GMT. Markets assign an 88% chance of a 25 basis-point reduction. Nitesh Sha, commodities analyst at WisdomTree said that gold was currently trading in a range until the FOMC announced its decision. "What will move gold? Not necessarily the cut itself, but rather the guidance for future," he added. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Yields are at their highest level in more than three month. The demand for gold, as measured by the holdings of physical-backed products, was lower than for silver in the last few weeks. Menke said that they see this as being the primary factor preventing gold from gaining traction. Carolane de Palmas, an analyst at ActivTrades, said that "gold's performance is one of the primary drivers of silver price volatility -- any correction in gold can lead to increased volatility in silver." Kevin Hassett is the White House's economic adviser and the leading candidate to succeed Powell as Fed Chair. He said on Tuesday that "there was plenty of room" for further interest rate cuts, but rising inflation might change this calculation. Gold and other non-yielding investments are favored by lower rates. RBC Capital Markets increased its long-term forecasts for gold prices to an average $4,600 per 1 ounce by 2026, and $5,100 in 2027. They cited geopolitical risk, a softer monetary policies, and persistent deficits. Palladium dropped 0.7%, to $1,495.88, while platinum fell 1.7%, to $1662.33. Reporting by Pablo Sinha from Bengaluru. Alexandra Hudson, Mark Potter and Alexandra Hudson edited the article.
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Marubeni expects Japan aluminum premiums to be between $85 and $203 by 2026
Marubeni Corp, a trading house, said that Japanese buyers will pay premiums between $85 and $203 per metric ton of aluminium in 2026 as overseas premiums are higher. This is because the flow to Asia has been reduced due to higher premiums, which have also slowed down. Japan is a major aluminum importer in Asia. The amount it pays for primary metal shipments above the London Metal Exchange Cash Price each quarter sets the benchmark for Asia. Japanese premiums have been lowered to $86 per tonne due to a combination of sluggish demand, ample supply and low prices. This quarter, the price was $228 compared to $190-$203 in January-March. In negotiations that began earlier this month for shipments in January-March, global suppliers have offered premiums between $190 and $203 per ton above the benchmark price. This is up 121%-136% compared to this quarter. Marubeni is one of Japan’s largest aluminum traders. They forecast Japan premiums of $140-$203 per tonne in January-March. $125-$200 from April-June. And a range between $85-$175 in the remainder of 2026. IMPACT OF US TARIFFS ON PREMIUMS "Premiums are rising in Europe and America amid concerns about supply and tariffs. This is raising fears that flows into Asia will be reduced, and has pushed up Japanese spot premiums over the past few weeks," Eisuke Akasaka said, General Manager of Marubeni's Light Metals Section. He noted that spot?premiums had risen to almost $140. Akasaka noted that an outage in a smelter located in Iceland and the expectation of the potential mothballing South32's Mozambique aluminum smelter, as well as front-loading before a new Carbon?Border Adaptation Mechanism under the EU have all contributed to the increase of European premiums. U.S. premiums are up because of high import tariffs. Akasaka said he expects European premiums will ease in the second halves of 2026, as the underlying demand is weak. This would lead to a small decline in Japanese premiums during the same period. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis; Yuka Obayashi)
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GE Vernova shares rise after bullish 2026 revenue outlook, buyback boost
GE Vernova shares rose by more than 8% on Wednesday in premarket trading after the company forecasted higher revenue for '2026, and a $4 Billion increase 'in its share buyback program. This was due to rising demand for GE Vernova power equipment used in data centers. GE Vernova is positioned to expand in the United States for a longer period of time, thanks to its continued growth across its gas turbine and grid businesses. Vernova, which was spun-off from General Electric in 2024, has seen a?rise of more than 370%. The stock jumped?8.2% before the bell Wednesday to $676.46. GE Vernova increased its share repurchase authority to $10 billion, up from $6 billion. It also doubled the quarterly dividend per share to 50 cents. Analysts at Jefferies said that the forecast was "well over on margins, EBITDA, and FCF," pointing out the "uniquely positive" outlook of the company's free cash flow for 2026 as well as the positive electrification margins above 20%. The company anticipates a 16% to 18% growth in organic revenue in 'its power segment, and a 20% increase in electrification in 2026. It?projected a free cash flow between $4.5 and $5.0 billion in the next year. This is higher than the $3.5 to 4 billion it expected to reach by 2025.
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The price of 2026 diesel is higher at major Asian refineries
According to several trade sources, major Asian refineries have signed term agreements for diesel exports by 2026, at a higher premium than the benchmark Singapore prices this year. This is supported by the firmer prices of November. The spot premiums for refiners’?sales? of 10ppm diesel in December were at their highest level in two years as the?prompt?supplies tightened because refinery outages exceeded expectations and year-end demand by regional importers increased, traders reported. The higher premiums on 2026 supply indicates that traders are still bullish about the prospects for motor and industrial fuel in the coming year. Three sources familiar with this matter claim that the Taiwanese refiner Formosa Petrochemical Corp. (FPCC), sold two cargoes of 750,000 barrels per month at 10ppm sulphur to a Western trading house for a premium of 60-70c a barrel. They added that two more?buyers can load a 750,000-barrel shipment every quarter for a premium of up to 80 cents a barrel. The contract prices for this year were higher by 20-40 cents a barrel. The 'premiums' for diesel and jet-fuel are largely up on an annual basis due to'stronger forecasts of supply-demand next year', said FPCC spokesperson KY Lin. However, he declined comment on the deal. He added, "We expect global supply-demand fundamentals to be better than this year for most oil products such as diesel and jet fuel due to some refinery closures and shutdowns since the second half of this year." Some refineries in Asia have experienced longer than expected outages. Others on the West Coast of the U.S. West Coast refineries have permanently closed due to high cost. SK Energy (a unit of SK Innovation) and GS Caltex, two South Korean oil companies, have been selling?several cargoes of 10ppm sulphur-free diesel per month? to a few Western trading houses as well as regional end users at a premium of 30 cents a barrel?, compared to around 20 cents a barrel this year? SK Energy and GS Caltex didn't immediately respond to our requests for comment. Two sources confirmed that Japan-origin barriques were also being discussed, with premiums of 30-50 cents per barrique. However, further details couldn't be confirmed. Traders said that FPCC?and GS Caltex jet fuel and kerosene were both sold at a premium of 80 cents up to $1 per barrel compared to FOB Singapore prices. Several buyers took advantage of this opportunity to lock in supplies, expecting a stronger heating demand through the first quarter next year. Reporting by Trixie YAP. Joyce Lee contributed additional reporting. Mark Potter (Editor)
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Copper prices rise on the prospect of support for Chinese real estate sector
On Wednesday, copper prices rose, returning to record levels on the back of hopes for more stimulus, particularly in China's battered real estate sector. Benchmark three-month Copper on the London Metal Exchange rose?1.2%?to $11,624 per metric ton at 1005 GMT, after falling by 1.3% Tuesday. It had reached a record high of $11,771 one day earlier. The shares of China's real estate sector soared on Wednesday, amid unsubstantiated market rumours about a government mortgage subsidy package worth 400 billion yuan (56.63 billion dollars). Property is one of the largest consumers of industrial metals, including copper. Dan Smith, managing Director?at Commodity Market Analytics, said: "A lot of?data from China recently was pretty abysmal in construction. It wouldn't?surprise me at all if there will be more stimulus for that part of economy to continue to grow." Analysts said that a stimulus for the Chinese economy as a whole was needed. Data on Wednesday revealed?that domestic demand is still weak and deflationary pressures persist. LME copper prices have risen 32% in this year, on fears of mine disruptions leading to deficits. Also, the flow of metals into the U.S. has tightened the supply of the rest of world. "I think that the risk for now is still on the upside. Smith stated that he had a "hunch" we would reach $12,000 by the end of the calendar year. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract closed the daytime trade down 0.2%, at 91.850 yuan per ton. The U.S. Federal Reserve, expected to cut rates on Wednesday afternoon, may also dampen expectations for further rate cuts. Analysts at Chinese broker Jinrui stated that investors have'scaled back their positions due to the uncertainty of future rate cuts. The expected supply pressure outside of the U.S. keeps prices high and volatile. Other metals saw a 0.3% rise in LME aluminium to $2,863.50 per ton. Lead rose by 0.2% at $1,983, Nickel increased 0.2% at $14,760. Tin gained 1.4% at $40,400, while zinc fell 0.1% to 3,086.50.
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A Chinese rare earth manufacturer receives a streamlined license for magnet exports
Ningbo Jintian Copper, a Chinese rare earth producer, announced on Wednesday that it had obtained streamlined export?licences. After a meeting in late October between Donald Trump, the U.S. counterpart of President Xi Jinping, and Xi's Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, the?new general licences? are intended to allow individual customers more exports with year-long permits. On an investor interactive platform, Ningbo Jintian Copper said that its rare earth magnets are used in electric cars, wind turbines and robots as well as consumer electronics, medical equipment, and consumer electronic products. Last week, it was reported that three Chinese rare-earth magnet manufacturers including JL Mag Rare Earth Ningbo Yunsheng High-Tech and Beijing Zhongke San Huan High-Tech secured the licenses which would allow them to speed up exports to certain customers. Beijing added several rare earth elements and magnets in early April to its export control list, requiring dual-use licenses for export. China's exports of rare-earth magnets plummeted in April and may, forcing automakers to shut down parts of their production. The dual-use license regime will continue to exist. Reporting by Beijing Newsroom. (Editing by Jan Harvey, Mark Potter and Jan Harvey)
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Intel wins reduced fine after losing its challenge to EU antitrust ruling
Intel, the U.S. chipmaker, lost its appeal against a 376 million euro ($438 millions) EU antitrust penalty imposed two years earlier for 'thwarting competitors.' But it gained some comfort as Europe’s second highest court reduced the fine by a third. The European Commission (which is the EU's competition enforcer) handed out the fine in 2023, after the court threw out an earlier penalty of 1.06 billion euro imposed by the tribunal in 2009 for blocking Advanced Micro Devices. The 376 million Euro fine was a result of payments Intel made to HP, Acer and Lenovo between November 2002 and December 2006 to stop or delay competing?products. These payments are often referred to as "naked restrictions" and are frowned upon by regulators. The Luxembourg-based tribunal stated that "the General Court upholds Commission 2023's decision against Intel, but reduces fine by about?140million euros." The judges said that a fine of 237 million euros is more appropriate in light of the severity and duration of the violation at issue. The company cited the limited number of computers that were affected by Intel?s restrictions and the 12-month interval between?some of these anti-competitive activities. On legal issues, the Commission and Intel may appeal to the European Court of Justice (the highest court in Europe), which is Europe's highest. T-1129/23 Intel Corporation V Commission.
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Silver extends rally beyond $60; gold steady ahead of Fed rate-cut decision
Investors awaited comments from Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, on future policy decisions, as gold prices remained unchanged. Silver extended its historic rally over $60 an ounce. As of 0844 GMT, spot gold dropped 0.2% to $4199.92 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery fell 0.2% to $4.228.10 an ounce. Spot silver rose 1.2% to $61.37/oz after hitting an all-time record of $61.61 earlier. Silver broke above the $60 an ounce mark, luring in more short-term traders and trend followers. Carsten Menke, Julius Baer's analyst, said that this also reflects a narrative of "physical tightness" in the silver markets. White metal prices have risen 113% in the past year. This is due to a combination of factors, including a decline in inventories and the United States' designation of it as a "critical" mineral. Today, the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting ends. A rate-cutting decision is expected at 1900 GMT. Powell will then make his remarks at 1930 GMT. The markets assign an 88% chance of a 25 basis-point cut. In the last few weeks, investors' demand for gold measured by holdings in physically-backed products was not as high as silver. Menke said that this is the primary factor holding gold back. Holdings of the largest gold-backed ?exchange-traded-fund (ETF), New York's SPDR Gold Trust, fell 0.1% on Tuesday, while New York's iShares ?Silver Trust, gained 0.53%. Kevin Hassett is the White House's economic advisor and a frontrunner for replacing Powell as Fed Chair. He said on Tuesday that "there was plenty of room" to lower interest rates further. However, rising inflation may change this calculation. Gold is a non-yielding asset that tends to be favoured by lower interest rates. RBC Capital Markets has raised its long-term forecasts for gold prices to an average $4,600 per 1 ounce by 2026, and $5,100 in 2027. They cited geopolitical risk, a softer monetary policies, and persistent deficits. Palladium dropped 0.3%, to 1,501.71, and platinum fell 1.2%, to $1670.70. (Reporting and editing by Alexandra Hudson in Bengaluru, with reporting by Pablo Sinha from Bengaluru)
REFILE - Stocks fall with S&P500 in correction; bonds are in demand amid tariff anxiety (March 13).
Investors fled to safer assets on Thursday, as global trade tensions were feared to increase inflation and slow the growth of the economy after U.S. president Donald Trump's recent tariff threats.
The benchmark S&P 500 closed Thursday for the first time more than 10% lower than its previous record close, which was achieved on February 19,
Trump has threatened to impose a 200% tariff on European beverages if the EU doesn't remove the whiskey surcharges from the United States. Trump's increased tariffs on U.S. imports of steel and aluminum took effect Wednesday.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the Labor Department, released data on Thursday that showed U.S. Producer prices (PPI), which were expected to rise faster than consumer prices (CPI), actually remained unchanged in February.
Last month's trends were not enough to reassure investors, who had been preparing for the potential impact of trade conflicts on future inflation and economic growth.
Tim Ghriskey is a senior portfolio strategist with Ingalls & Snyder, New York. He said that if it weren't for the ongoing trade war, the market would have been up strongly on the inflation data. "Traders have their attention on the trade conflict."
Ghriskey said, "It appears that the administration (in the U.S.) is very aggressive. They seem to be committed to the long-term and personalities are unlikely to change their minds in the near future."
Wall Street saw the S&P500 fall 77.78 or 1.39% to 5,521.52.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average also appeared to be approaching a confirmation of a correction, as it ended Thursday at 40,813.57, down 537.36, or 1.30%. This was roughly 9.4% lower than its latest record-breaking closing high.
The Nasdaq Composite dropped 345.44, or 1.96% to 17,303.01. After confirming the correction on March 6, the tech-heavy index fell more than 14% compared to its recent record.
According to Yardeni Research, stock market corrections have been fairly common. The S&P 500 has experienced a correction at least 56 times since 1929. Data showed that only 22 of these corrections morphed to bear markets. A bear market is defined as a decline of at least 20% from the most recent highs.
MSCI's index of global stocks fell 9.33 points or 1.12% to 821.52 in Thursday. This is more than 7% lower than its latest record high, after hitting his lowest point since September.
The pan-European STOXX 600 Index closed earlier down 0.15%, after gaining 0.81% the previous session.
The U.S. S&P 500 is down over 6% year to date, but European stocks are doing better thanks to government plans for defense spending and a possible Ukraine peace agreement. The STOXX Index is up 6.5% for the year-to-date despite recent drops.
U.S. Treasury Yields fell on Friday as the equity selloff increased demand for U.S. Government debt. The escalating Trade Wars between the United States, and its trading partners threatens to deter growth and increase inflation.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes dropped 4.6 basis point to 4.27% from 4.316% at late Wednesday, while the 30-year bond rate fell 4.1 basis to 4.59%.
The yield on the 2-year bond, which is usually in line with expectations of interest rates for the Federal Reserve fell by 4 basis points, to 3.955% from 3.995% at late Wednesday.
The U.S. Dollar was mixed in terms of currencies. It weakened against the safe-haven Japanese yen, but gained on the Euro and Canadian dollar.
The dollar fell 0.38% against the Japanese yen to 147.68.
The euro fell 0.33% to $1.085, while the Canadian dollar declined 0.45% against the greenback. Against the Swiss Franc the dollar gained 0.14%.
Oil prices fell after a rally on Wednesday, when traders took into account macroeconomic concerns as well as demand and supply expectations.
U.S. crude oil settled at $66.55 per barrel down $1.13 or 1.67% and Brent settled at $69,88 per barrel down 1.51% or $0.07 for the day.
Gold prices soared to record levels on Thursday and were just a few cents away from the $3,000 mark per ounce. The momentum was driven by increased tariff uncertainty as well as bets placed on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy being eased.
Spot gold increased by 1.73%, to $2982.84 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures increased by 1.51% to $2.983.50 per ounce.
(source: Reuters)