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Investors weigh the future US interest rate cut, and AI bubble as they consider copper.
The market was focused on the future interest rate path in the United States, as confidence in artificial intelligence trades waned. As of 03:30 GMT, the most traded copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was?down 0.03% to 92360 yuan (US$13,114.85). The benchmark copper for three months on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.43%, to $11,686 per ton. In his Wednesday national address, U.S. president Donald Trump stated that the next Federal Reserve chairman will be someone who is a believer in lower interest rates by "a lot". Trump has previously stated that he would announce his choice for Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose tenure ends in May next year. The President made his comments a week after the Fed cut its policy rate by 25 basis point, helping copper outperform other base metals. Market participants are unsure whether the known finalist -- White House Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett and Federal Reserve Governors Kevin Warsh or Chris Waller -- will lower rates to Trump's liking. The U.S. Dollar rose slightly. The dollar's strength makes commodities priced in greenbacks more expensive to investors who use other currencies. Despite the growing skepticism about AI, Oracle's data centre partner Blue Owl Capital was reported to have backed a $10 billion contract for its next facility. This is due to concerns over debt and rising spending. Copper is a "key metal" used in data centres. Red metal is still supported by supply shortages and demand prospects, which have limited the extent of today's drop. Aluminium was up by 0.09%. Zinc gained 0.35%. Lead rose by 0.15%. Nickel gained 0.66%. Tin surged 3.10%. Thursday, December 18 DATA/EVENTS (GMT) 0745 France Business Climate Mfg, Overall Dec 1200 UK BOE Bank Rate Dec 1315 EU ECB Refinancing, Deposit Rate Dec 1330 US Core CPI MM SA, YY NSA Nov 1330 US CPI Wage Earner Nov 201330 US Initial Jobless Clm 13, w/e 1330 United States Philly Fed Business Indx Dec ($1 = 7.0424 Chinese yuan renmin Thursday, December 18, DATA/EVENTS, GMT 0745 France Business Conditions Mfg Overall Dec 1200 UK BOE Rate Dec 1315 EU ECB refinancing, deposit rate Dec 1330 US Core Consumer Price Index MM SA YY NSA November 1330 US Wage Earner Nov 201330 US Philly Fed Indx Dec (1 = 7.0424 Chinese yuan renminbi). (Reporting and editing by Dylan Duan, Lewis Jackson, Harikrishnan
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Qatar reduces the February term premium on al-Shaheen crude, according to sources
QatarEnergy lowered the term premium on the?al-Shaheen oil loading for February, according to several 'trade sources'. This was due to the weakness of the spot benchmark premiums. The company, which is owned by the state, set February's prices at 53 cents per barrel over Dubai's quotes. This was down from 84 cents in January. Loading of January cargoes The price reduction?followed the decline in spot premiums of Middle East crude oil so far in this month. This was weighed down by abundant supplies on the?market, and an outlook for a surplus in 2026. QatarEnergy has sold five cargoes to Glencore, Indian refiners Reliance, and HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd at premiums of around 42 cents per barrel, according to the sources. Separately, 'Qatar awarded an oil cargo from Qatar Marine at a discount price of 60 cents per barrel to Unipec - the trading arm of Sinopec - and a Qatar Land cargo to Reliance?at an additional premium of 30 cents, according to the sources. Companies typically do not comment on business deals. Each cargo is 500,000 barrels.
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US crude futures surge in Asia due to Trump's Venezuelan blockade
U.S. crude oil futures were a dollar higher in Asian trading Thursday after President Donald Trump imposed a 'blockade' on tankers entering or leaving Venezuela. Most exports remained on hold. As of 1109 GMT, the West Texas Intermediate contract had risen 98 cents or 1.75% to $56.92 a barrel. Trump had on Tuesday ordered a 'blockade' of all sanctioned tankers entering or leaving Venezuela, calling the administration of President Nicolas Maduro a foreign terrorist group. Sources said most Venezuelan ?exports remained On Hold Wednesday, due to the 'blockade' even though Venezuelan state oil firm PDVSA had resumed loading crude and fuel after having to suspend operations following a cyberattack. Chevron vessels continued to depart for the U.S. Tony Sycamore, IG's market analyst, said that "while enforcement details are unclear," the sudden escalation of U.S. sanctions against the Maduro regime has sparked concerns about supply disruption and triggered a short covering in an oversold market. Oil prices rose after the?news. The dollar rose by more than 1% during the previous session. This was a rebound from five-year lows, largely due to progress in Ukraine peace talks which seemed to indicate a possible easing of Russian sanctions. (Reporting and editing by Chris Reese, David Gregorio and Colleen Waye)
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Tinubu, Nigeria's Tinubu, nominates new oil regulators following the resignation of chiefs amid Dangote dispute
Bola Tinubu, the Nigerian president, has asked the Senate to confirm a pair of new oil and gas regulators in Nigeria after their predecessors abruptly quit. This was due to a high-stakes conflict between an agency and Africa's wealthiest man, Aliko Dagote. Tinubu was nominated after Gbenga?Komolafe - the former chief executive of Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission - and Farouk Ahmed - the head of Nigerian Midstream & Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority – left their positions. Dangote has accused Ahmed of allowing the entry of cut-price fuel imports that ?threaten local refineries, including his 650,000-barrel-per-day Lagos plant, Africa's largest. Dangote filed a?petition on Wednesday against Ahmed at one of Nigeria's anti-graft agencies – the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission. Komolafe has clashed over the failure of Dangote to enforce a law requiring that producers prioritize local refineries. The shake-up occurs at a crucial moment for Africa's largest oil producer. Regulatory uncertainty and fears about supply have been dominating headlines ever since Dangote filed a formal complaint against Ahmed citing concerns over governance and personal expenditures beyond declared income. Analysts say the resignations will not have a significant impact on the oil sector. Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan is Komolafe’s preferred successor. He spent over three decades with the state oil firm, including as a director of one of its subsidiaries. Saidu Aliyu Muhammad, Farouk’s successor, has been named as an independent nonexecutive Director at?Seplat Energy. He has over 37 years' experience and led a division at NNPC and helped draft Nigeria’s Gas Master Plan. "I do not think that these resignations will adversely affect investor trust," said Ayodele ONI, a partner and energy lawyer with the Lagos-based Bloomfield Law firm. Tife Owolabi contributed additional reporting from Yenagoa, and Isaac Anyaogu from Lagos. Elisha Gbogbo wrote the article. Bernadette Baum edited it.
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Silver tops $66, gold gains 1% due to soft US labor market
Silver prices reached a record-high of $66 per ounce on Wednesday. Gold prices also rose as the Federal Reserve of the United States cut rates after signs of an ailing labor market and escalating tensions between Venezuela and the U.S. boosted demand for safe havens. Spot silver increased nearly 4%, to $66.22 per ounce. It had previously reached a session high of $66.88. Edward Meir, a Marex analyst, said that silver is pulling up gold. "There is money moving out of gold into palladium and platinum," Meir added. "$70/oz" (for silver) seems to be the logical next target for the short term." Gold spot rose 0.7%, to $4334.01 per ounce at 01:56 pm ET (18:56 GMT) after it had risen over 1% in the morning. U.S. Gold?futures closed 1% higher at $ 4,373.9. Silver has risen 129% in the past year, surpassing gold's 65% increase. On Tuesday, data showed a stronger-than-expected increase of 64,000 jobs in the U.S. last month, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, its highest level since September 2021. Gold and other non-yielding investments could benefit from a weak labor market. According to?Bas Kooijman of DHF Capital S.A., the CEO and asset manager, the markets continue to see that the Federal Reserve will cut its interest rates twice during the first half of 2026. This could support gold prices over this period. The U.S. Federal Reserve delivered its final quarter-point rate reduction of the year last week. Investors now price in two 25 basis-point rate cuts in 2026. The market is now awaiting the Consumer Price Index for November, due Thursday. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index will be released on Friday. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, ordered a "blockade", of all sanctioned tankers that enter and leave Venezuela, Washington's latest effort to increase pressure on Nicolas Maduro’s government. This move adds to the safe-haven request. Palladium rose 2% to $1635.61 and platinum was up 2.2%, the highest level in over 17 years.
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Silver reaches record price of $65/oz due to a perfect storm
Silver's inclusion on the U.S. Critical Minerals?list and a wave momentum buying has propelled it to a new record high. Prices are expected to end 2025 more than twice where they started. Silver has gained over 120% in the past year, and according to LSEG's data dating back to 1982, is on track for its best-ever annual performance. The metal is beating safe-haven, gold which is expected to rise 64% by 2025. On Wednesday, spot prices reached a new record high of $66.87/oz. The current rally is largely driven by investment. The rally has a strong fundamental basis, but these prices are driven by speculation and investment," said Rhona OConnel, StoneX's head of market research. Silver's fundamentals are robust, with a persistent supply deficit and a healthy outlook for demand from the solar cell, artificial intelligence data centers, and electric vehicles industries. Metals also benefit from the same macroeconomic factors that support gold as well as flows to safe-haven assets due to geopolitical tensions and trade tensions. Nitesh Sha, commodities strategist at WisdomTree, said that these factors and the less abundant inventories outside of the U.S. create a "very supportive environment" for future growth. He added that "Silver could reach a price of up to $75/oz by the end next year." Prices have also been supported by the metal's inclusion in the U.S. Critical Minerals list. Concerns about the potential impact of tariffs on silver prompted a rush to the U.S. in early this year. This led to a shortage of liquidity in London's spot market. Analysts said that the combination of demand from India and China with momentum buying has created a perfect storm for metal. Carsten Menke, Julius Baer's analyst, said that "strong price performances" attract Chinese traders to the market. This is evidenced by the increase in trading volumes and open interest on the exchanges. Analysts remain bullish about silver. They expect the metal to surpass the $70/oz mark next year. This is especially true if U.S. rate cuts boost the demand for precious metals. Others cautioned, however,?that historically volatile metals remain vulnerable to steep corrections. O'Connell said that if gold moves by x% in one direction, silver should move by 2x% to 2.5x% in the opposite direction because it is a smaller, more volatile market.
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Industry says EU carbon tax changes are not sufficient for metals
Industry representatives on Wednesday said that the proposed?changes in the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism are a'step in the right directions' for Europe's?steel?and?aluminium?sector, but not a 'complete solution'. On Wednesday, the European Commission announced plans to extend the CBAM, which imposes a carbon-based tax on imports of metals such as steel and aluminium, and a few other commodities, to include some downstream products that contain a large amount of these metals. These include machinery, appliances and scrap. It did this in response to warnings by metal industry players from Europe regarding "carbon leakage", or the risk that industries worried about losing their competitiveness might move operations out of the region so as to avoid the costs of climate policies. The European Steel Association Eurofer stated in a press release that the proposals were flawed, but did not provide "a comprehensive and lasting response to jobs and carbon leakage", saying the number downstream products included is "very limited". Axel Eggert said that Eurofer, as Eurofer's Director General, was ready to continue discussions with legislators about how to make CBAM watertight. Norsk Hydro, a Norwegian aluminium manufacturer, was in the forefront of the 'lobbying' for the expansion CBAM. It said that 35% of EU aluminum recycling capacity would be lost if remelted scrap aluminium entered the EU free of a carbon levy. It said that the inclusion of "pre-consumer" scrap is a "big move forward". "However,?post-consumer scrap ?must also be added to the scope," a company spokesman ?said. "If we don't, the loophole for scrap will be open to half." Pre-consumer metal is scrap generated during manufacturing before a finished product reaches a consumer. Post-consumer metal, such as aluminum beverage cans, are end-of life metals. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis; Tom Daly)
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The Peruvian Congress extends the informal mining permits program by one year
LIMA, December 17 - Peru’s Congress approved on Wednesday a one year extension to a temporary?permit?program?for small-scale miner amid ongoing protests that?sought to give miners a longer period of time to regularize their operation. The extension will last until the end of 2026. The government previously opposed a bill which sought to extend REINFO by two years. After receiving an initial approval at the beginning of December, the extension was approved by 13 votes in favor, 4 against, and 2 abstentions. The REINFO permits have been extended five times since the program began a little more than a decade ago. This program is for small-scale informal miners that extract gold and/or copper. These permits allow them to continue to work. Sources in the Peruvian industry and police claim that the temporary permits also fueled a'surge' of illegal mining, at a time where precious metals trade at record prices on the international markets. In July, more than 50,000 small-scale miner were removed from REINFO. This left about 31,000 people responsible for bringing the status of their mining up to date before the end 2025. Peru exported $15.5 billion in gold to the world in 2024. This is a huge jump from the $11 billion it had done last year. According to local financial regulator and sector data, it is estimated that 40% of the gold in this country is illegal. (Reporting and Writing by Marco Aquino; Editing and Revision by Brendan O'Boyle).
Stocks rise, Treasuries dip as markets await United States election outcome
World stocks increased and Treasury yields pulled back from early highs on Tuesday as markets waited for early indicators of the outcome of a knifeedge U.S. governmental election, with only currency markets showing some jitters. Overnight suggested volatility alternatives for euro/dollar surged to the greatest level considering that November 2016, as did those for the dollarMexican peso set, in acknowledgment that the latter could be hard struck by protectionist policies if Republican politician Donald Trump beats Democrat Kamala Harris.
The VIX index of U.S. stock volatility, referred to as Wall Street's worry gauge, hovered at 20.5, down 7% from Monday but up from 15 in September. That said, it remains at half the level experienced in the 2020 presidential election in an indication that markets stayed relatively sanguine.
I'm hopeful that we'll see ideas pretty early. I think polls close in Georgia and North Carolina at 7:30 p.m. (ET/0030. GMT on Wednesday), and both are states that count rapidly,. Christy Setzer, a Democrat strategist, said in the Reuters. International Markets Online Forum. So much of their states' votes are. already in, so there's a smaller sized amount of Election Day voting.
MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe. climbed up 1.1%. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 Index rose. 1.2%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1%, and the. Nasdaq Composite leapt 1.4%.
The surveys remain neck and neck even as some recent polling. has suggested that Harris has gotten the advantage, analysts. at TD Securities stated. Forecast markets have swung extremely on. the upgraded ballot, but a Red Wave (preferring Republican politicians). remains the most likely result priced into markets followed by. Democratic President and split Congress.
The 10-year Treasury yield pared earlier gains. and slipped to 4.2888%, retreating from a four-month-high struck. last week. Yields spiked greater earlier even as financiers commonly anticipate the. U.S. Federal Reserve to cut rate of interest by 25 basis points. when policymakers meet today. The jump in yields followed. information from the Institute for Supply Management that revealed U.S. services sector activity unexpectedly sped up in October to. a more-than-two-year high, as employment strengthened.
The two-year Treasury yield added 2 bps to. 4.1972%, also near a three-month-high hit recently.
Financiers are braced for turbulence in the Treasury market,. even enabling the big moves that we've currently seen in it. just recently, stated John Higgins, chief markets economist at Capital. Economics.
The choppiness is not unexpected, Higgins stated, offered the. contrast in the protagonists' policy platforms.
In general, financiers have actually interpreted Trump's trade. policies to be more protectionist and inflationary.
The 10-year Treasury yield has actually climbed 63 basis points. given that the Federal Reserve cut rates of interest by 50 basis points. on Sept. 18.
Europe's benchmark STOXX index was flat, while. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan. increased 0.9%.
Currencies, which unlike shares trade around the clock, saw. more action, albeit using just scattered and inconsistent. signs of which prospect financiers were betting on.
The dollar, which relieved as traders made last tweaks to. positions, bought 151.58 yen and altered hands at. $ 1.0285 per euro.
They've priced what they believe is price-able and that's. that, stated Westpac strategist Imre Speizer, adding that a clear. win for Trump would lift the dollar, while a win for Harris. would push it a bit lower.
Bitcoin added 3.3% to about $70,077, with Trump. viewed by experts as enacting more beneficial policies for. cryptocurrencies than Harris.
Ultimately the U.S. election boils down to this - whether. the U.S. electorate wishes to elect economic policy. connection, institutional stability and liberal democracy. ( Harris) or extreme trade policy, a more retreat for. globalization and strongman democracy (Trump), J.P. Morgan. experts stated in a note. In other words, a choose stability or. change.
BRACED
China is seen on the front line of tariff threat, and its. currency in specific is trading on tenterhooks with suggested. volatility versus the dollar around record highs. The yuan hovered at 7.1047 per dollar, while Chinese. stock exchange surged to nearly one-month highs as financiers. expect a conference of leading policymakers in Beijing this week to. authorize local government financial obligation refinancing and costs.
China's blue chip CSI300 leapt 2.5% and Hong. Kong's Hang Seng increased 2.1%. The Australian dollar barely reacted after the reserve bank held. rates, as expected, with all eyes on the U.S. election, and the. Aussie was last marginally firmer at $0.6614.
Euro zone bond yields edged up, with Germany's 10-year bond. yield climbing up nearly 4 basis indicate 2.431%, a. bit below recently's three-month high of 2.447%.
Oil held sharp overnight gains on hold-ups to manufacturers' strategies. for increased output, leaving benchmark Brent crude futures. at $75.62 a barrel after a 3% rise on Monday.
(source: Reuters)