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Minister says Nepal lifts the ban on social media after 19 protesters are killed
A government minister announced on Tuesday that Nepal had lifted its ban on social media following the protests which resulted in 19 deaths. Prithvi Gurung, Minister of Communications and Information Technology and Cabinet spokesperson, said that the government had lifted its ban on social media imposed just last week. After 19 people died and over 100 were injured during the "Gen Z's" Monday protests against widespread corruption, the decision was made. The ban was the catalyst for the protests. "We have lifted the ban on social media." Gurung said that they are now working. Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli expressed his sadness over the violence that has been caused by "infiltration" from various selfish centers. He added that the government would provide relief to the families of those who died and free medical treatment for those injured. In a statement released late on Monday, Oli announced that an investigation panel would be formed to determine the causes of the incident, to assess losses and to suggest measures to prevent it from happening again. The protests that spread to other cities of the Himalayan nation have been dubbed "demonstrations of Gen Z" by their organizers. The protests, they say, reflect the frustration of young people with the government for not taking action against corruption and boosting economic opportunities. Last week, the government decided to block several social media platforms, including Facebook. This decision sparked anger among young people. Officials claim that the shutdown is for social media platforms who have not registered with the government. This comes amid a crackdown against fake IDs and hate speech. Reporting by Gopal Singh in Kathmandu, and Surbhi Mitra in Bengaluru. Editing by Tom Hogue & Stephen Coates.
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Oil prices rise on modest OPEC+ production hike decision and Russia's supply problems
The oil prices rose on Tuesday as OPEC+ increased production less than the market expected, and concerns about tighter supplies due to new sanctions against Russia also continued to support them. Brent crude rose 22 cents or 0.33% to $66.24 a bar by 0005 GMT. U.S. West Texas intermediate crude rose 24 cents or 0.39% to $62.50 a bar. OPEC+ is a group of eight countries and their allies that have agreed to increase production by 137,000 barrels a day starting in October. This is a much smaller increase than the monthly gains of approximately 555,000 barrels per day for September and August and 411,000 barrels per day in July and Juni. This is less than what some analysts expected. In a Tuesday client note, Daniel Hynes said that the October move was "a reversal" of the cuts which were to be in place until 2026. This follows the rapid return of barrels idled in recent months. The speculation that more sanctions would be imposed on Russia following the largest air strike by Russia on Ukraine, which set a Kyiv government building on fire, also helped to support prices. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that he is ready to implement a second round of restrictions. The top European Union sanctions official, along with a team experts from Washington, discussed what would be the very first coordinated transatlantic measure against Russia after Trump's return to office. Additional sanctions against Russia could reduce its oil supplies to the global market, which would support higher oil prices. Next week, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee will meet. Traders predict an 89.4% probability of a quarter point interest rate reduction. Lower rates can reduce borrowing costs for consumers and boost the economy. (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing in Bengaluru, Anjana Anil)
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McGeever: The 100 billion dollar Treasury record that you missed.
For good reason, the recent spike in 30-year bond yields has been a headline story on world bond markets. With so much focus on the long end, it seems that few have noticed the historic changes in the ultra-short U.S. Treasury Market. The weekly sale of four-week T bills has now reached the landmark of $100 billion. The September 4 auction marked the fifth consecutive sales at this record-high amount. This new government strategy is reflected in the flood of bills being sold. The Trump administration wants to lower the country's overall interest rates and debt maturity profile by borrowing at the short end of the curve. It seems to be working so far. Investors expect at least 150 basis point of rate easing before the end of this year. This is not only lowering bill rates and yields on short-term bonds, but also yields over the longer term. The benchmark 10-year rate is at its lowest level since the 'Liberation Day tariff chaos' in April, and the 30-year rate is once again slipping away from 5%. Investors who lend to Uncle Sam over a period of 10 years with the associated risk get paid 4.08% annually, while those who lend to Uncle Sam in a four-week period receive 4.20%. These bill auctions are generating strong demand. Last week's $100-billion sale was 2,78 times oversubscribed. What's the issue? Let me Roll It The biggest worry is the 'rollover risk'. The government must refinance large portions of its debt more often because it concentrates sales on the front of the curve. It is then more vulnerable to unexpected financial, political, or economic shocks. These could lead to an increase in short-term borrowing rates or force the Fed's policy rate to be raised. Fed expectations may be skewed downwards right now. But what if inflation expectations start to rise and the Fed is forced to stop its easing cycle, or even raise rates? This is not a crazy scenario. Goldman Sachs says the Fed is likely to ease in a climate of 3% inflation, high equity markets and the most accommodative financial conditions for three-and-a half years. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model also predicts 3.5% economic growth. The full impact of Trump's new tariffs on inflation is not taken into consideration. The increased bill issuance is well-absorbed, but the cash that goes into them depletes liquidity pools and buffers elsewhere in the system. The overnight reverse repo facility of the Fed is almost empty and total bank reserve at the Fed is declining. Nobody knows the minimum level of comfortable reserves in the banking system. In late 2019, a sudden fall below this level caused significant volatility in the money markets and an increase in overnight rates. Experts believe that it is higher now, due to the expansion of the banking system and economy. Reserves are decreasing steadily and may soon fall below $3 trillion. Citi analysts warn that they will continue to "march" below this level as Tbill issuance increases, potentially pushing up repo rates and financing costs. THRESHOLD According to Wall Street estimates, the Treasury is increasingly relying on T-bills as a funding source. This could mean that new issuances over the next 18 month may exceed $1.5 trillion. The share of outstanding bills is also likely to increase. Currently, this portion is just under 21 percent. This is slightly below the historical median of 22.5% and above the range recommended by Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee. T Rowe Price analysts believe the share will soon reach 25%. This is a level that was last seen during pandemics and the Global Financial Crisis. It suggests borrowing policies seen before crises may become the norm. All of this won't be a problem as long as the demand for increased issuance is strong. There's good reason to think that this will be the outcome. Money market funds, the largest buyers of T-bills, have seen their holdings explode from $4.7 billion in early 2020 to over $7 trillion today. There is also a massive demand for T-bills from stablecoin issues, who want to back their crypto assets using safe and liquid assets such as T-bills. The market may continue to "play ball" with the new government funding strategy. The Trump administration is hoping so, with over $1 trillion in new issuances coming.
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Bloomberg News reports that Anglo American is close to a deal with Teck Resources.
Bloomberg News reported Monday that Anglo American was close to a deal for the acquisition of Canadian miner Teck Resources. The report cited people who were familiar with the matter. Separately, The Financial Times reported Monday that the potential acquisition could be valued at around $20 billion. Reports said that the London-listed global mining company is considering paying a majority in stock and an announcement could be made as soon as this week. The report said that the terms and timing of the agreement are still uncertain and the talks could collapse without an accord. According to LSEG, Teck Resources is valued at approximately C$23.69 (about $17.17 Billion), while Anglo American's market value is around 26.82 Billion Pounds (roughly $35.35 billion), according to LSEG. Anglo American, as well as Teck, have attracted interest in recent years from bigger rivals. Anglo rejected a $49billion takeover offer from BHP Group in the past year. Teck also turned down a $22.5billion full buyout from Glencore. Glencore has said that it is still interested in Teck, the Canadian miner. If Anglo makes an approach, there could be a bidding war. We could not verify the information immediately. Teck, Anglo American, and Glencore didn't immediately respond to requests for comment. ($1 = 1,3797 Canadian Dollars) ($1= 0.7378 Pounds) (Reporting and editing by Mohammed Safi Shamsi, Rashmi Anich and Dheeraj Misra from Bengaluru)
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Norway's ruling Labour party wins re-election
Norway's Labour Party minority government will narrowly win its re-election Monday, according to projections from local broadcasters. The vote was dominated by concern over the rising cost of living and wars in Ukraine, Gaza and Gaza. If the official results confirm early readings, then 65-year-old Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere would remain at power as part of a minority coalition that would heavily depend on smaller parties for major legislation, such as fiscal budgets. In order to gain their support, he will likely have to face difficult discussions about issues like tax hikes on the wealthy, oil exploration in the future, and divestments from Israeli companies by Norway's sovereign wealth fund of $2 trillion. The broadcasters NRK, TV2 and the daily VG projected that Stoere's Labour bloc and four smaller parties would win 87 seats. This is more than the required 85 for a majority. The right-wing parties led by Progress, a populist anti-immigration party, and Erna Solberg's Conservatives, a 64-year-old former prime minister, are on course to win 82 seats. Concerns about the turmoil in Ukraine, and an aggressive Russia that shares a border in the Arctic with Norway, have given the left a boost in recent months, after former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg joined Stoere’s cabinet. Unlike some of their counterparts in Europe, none of the right-wing political parties expected to win seats has sought the support of U.S. president Donald Trump or his movements.
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Gold rallies above $3,600/oz to a record high as Fed rate-cut bets are firm
Gold surged above $3,600 per ounce for the first-time on Monday. It was a record high as weak U.S. employment data reinforced expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve would cut interest rates the following week. As of 2:26 pm EDT (1826 GMT), spot gold was up 1.3% at $3,634.25 an ounce. Bullion reached a new record of $3,646.29. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled 0.7% higher at $3,677.40. Peter Grant, senior metals analyst at Zaner Metals and vice president, believes that the yellow metal will continue to rise in price, reaching $3,700-3,730 within a short time. The bullion market could be sustained by the continued softening of the labor market and the expectation that Fed rates will continue to fall into early 2026. The Friday jobs report revealed that U.S. employment growth was slowed dramatically in August. According to CME FedWatch, traders now expect a rate cut of up to a quarter point at the Fed meeting in September. Low rates reduce the cost of holding bullion that does not yield. Gold prices have risen 37% this year after 27% growth in 2024. This is due to dollar weakness, central bank accumulations, dovish monetary policies and increased global uncertainty. China's central banks extended its gold buying streak to 10 consecutive months in August, according to official data released on Sunday. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rates, on the other hand, are at their lowest level in five months. Investors will now be waiting for the U.S. consumer price data and producer prices to come out on Thursday. This information could provide further insight into Fed policy. Fawad Rasaqzada is a market analyst for City Index and FOREX.com. He said that if the U.S. Dollar and yields continue to fall, the bullish momentum should also continue in gold. Razaqzada said that if the U.S. data showed surprise resilience in the coming week, gold could correct from its elevated levels. Silver spot rose 0.8%, reaching its highest level since September 2011 earlier in the session. Platinum rose 0.6% to $1,381.49 and palladium gained a 2.1% increase to $1,132.87.
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Egypt's EGAS signs a preliminary agreement with BP for the drilling of five Mediterranean gas wells
Egypt's Petroleum Ministry announced on Monday that the Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company, or EGAS, has signed a preliminarily agreement with BP for drilling five new gaswells in Mediterranean Sea. The Ministry's efforts to increase exploration and production are reflected in the memorandum signed by EGAS, a state-owned company. Egypt, once the largest gas exporter in the region, is increasingly importing to meet its domestic demand, as production from old fields declines and new investments are slow. According to the Joint Organisations Data Initiative, gas production in May decreased by more than 40% compared to March 2021. The statement said that drilling of the five deep wells at 300 to 1,500 meters is expected to begin next year. The Petroleum Ministry announced on August 30 that it had signed four agreements with international companies worth over $340 million for the exploration of oil and gas in Mediterranean and Nile Delta. Shell, Eni of Italy, and Arcius Energy were among the firms. Arcius Energy is a joint venture owned 51% by BP, and 49% by ADNOC investment arm XRG. (Reporting and editing by Muhammad Al Gebaly, Jaidaa T.A. Haha)
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Databricks expects to generate $4 billion annually in revenue from the surge in AI demand
Databricks, a firm that provides analytics, announced on Monday that it is on track to reach $4 billion in revenue annually, an increase of more than 50% over the previous year. This was due to the surge in demand for its artificial-intelligence products. The Series K funding was led by Andreessen Hoowitz, Insight Partner, MGX Thrive Capital, and WCM Investment Management. It raised $1 billion with a valuation of over $100 billion. The proceeds will be used to accelerate the company's AI strategy. This includes expanding its products, launching an entirely new category of operational databases, as well as future AI research and acquisitions. The company, which serves around 15,000 clients, including Shell, a major energy company, and Rivian, an electric vehicle manufacturer, has exceeded a revenue run rate of $4 billion, with AI products exceeding $1 billion. Databricks aims to achieve a net revenue retainment of more than 140%. It also wants more than 650 clients with annual spending exceeding $1 million and a positive free cashflow over the last 12 months. Databricks CEO Ali Ghodsi said in an interview that the company has received numerous investor inquiries since July's successful $1.22 billion initial public offering of design software firm Figma, another venture capital-backed startup. Databricks CEO Ali Ghodsi stated in an interview that his firm has received many investor inquiries following the $1.22 billion IPO of Figma, a venture-backed software company, in July. Databricks was founded in 2013 and offers a platform that helps users to ingest, analyse, and build AI apps using complex data. (Reporting by Kritika Lamba in Bengaluru; Editing by Vijay Kishore)
China PMI enhances sentiment, however product imports may have front-run: Russell
The return of China's crucial manufacturing index to favorable area for the first time in 6 months has actually triggered optimism that commodity demand from the world's biggest buyer of natural deposits is poised to speed up.
The official buying supervisors' index (PMI) increased to 50.8 in March from 49.1 in February, increasing above the 50-level that separates growth from contraction, and striking the greatest mark given that March 2023.
The data, released on March 31, likewise went beyond the typical projection of 49.9 in a survey, offering an upside surprise that more boosted positive belief for the world's. second-largest economy.
Manufacturing is an essential sector of China's economy and a. major need centre for metals such as copper and steel, too. as energy required to make products.
The PMI contributed to other recent data that recommend China's. economy is getting some momentum after having a hard time for development in. 2023.
Retail sales and factory output beat expectations in the. January-February period, increasing 5.5% and 7.0% respectively,. while exports acquired 7.1% in the first two months of the year. from the very same period a year earlier.
Nevertheless, the home sector remains an issue, with sales. by floor location sliding 20.5% in the January-February duration from. a year earlier, only somewhat better than the 23.0% fall. recorded for December.
However, the total photo is that China's economy does. appear to have actually acquired traction, and continuous stimulus steps. are likely to protect the momentum.
Exercising how that equates into product imports is. much more challenging.
If anything, it appears imports of major commodities have. front-run the economic recovery.
IRON ORE STRENGTH
China's iron ore imports were 8.1% greater in the very first 2. months of the year, being available in at 209.45 million metric heaps,. according to main information.
This strength appears to have largely continued in March,. with LSEG estimating arrivals of 97.8 million heaps and commodity. experts Kpler being more bullish with a projection of 107.1. million.
Kpler anticipates imports of seaborne thermal coal to come in at. 29.67 million loads, a three-month high and above the 28.62. million from March in 2015.
Imports of melted gas (LNG) are forecast by Kpler. to be 6.62 million tons, up from February's 5.79 million and. surpassing the 5.43 million from March 2023.
Petroleum imports are approximated by LSEG Oil Research Study at. 11.74 million barrels each day (bpd), up from 11.21 million bpd. in February and the most since October.
RATE IMPACT
It's possible that China's commodity importers chose to. buy more in anticipation of more powerful need from a recuperating. economy, but it's also likely that prices contributed.
The boost in iron ore imports came as prices trended. lower, with the Singapore Exchange agreement slipping. from a high up until now in 2024 of $143.60 a lot on Jan. 3 to a low. of $101.99 on April 1.
Indonesia is China's leading supplier of thermal coal, and the. cost of coal with an energy material of 4,200 kilocalories per. kg, as assessed by product rate. reporting company Argus, has been trending lower given that a peak of. $ 61.70 a lot in October, ending at $55.70 in the week to March. 28.
Crude oil cargoes showing up in March would most likely have. been secured around December, a time when global criteria Brent. futures dropped to a six-month low of $73.24 a barrel.
Since then Brent has actually rebounded to close at $88.92 a barrel. amid output cuts by the OPEC+ group of exporters and ongoing. tensions in the Middle East linked to the dispute between. Israel and Hamas.
Spot LNG for shipment to North Asia << LNG-AS > likewise trended. lower, going from a winter high of $17.90 per million British. thermal units (mmBtu) in October to a low of $8.30 on March 1.
The rate has actually since rallied to end recently at $9.50 per. mmBtu.
It might be the case that China's economic healing does. result in higher product imports, but it may not be a case of. the increasing tide raising all boats similarly.
Commodities where prices are still softer, such as iron ore. and thermal coal, might see stronger demand than those where. rates have moved greater, such as petroleum.
The viewpoints revealed here are those of the author, a columnist. .
(source: Reuters)