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Why tropical commodities are exposed to a strong El Nino

Forecasters predict that a strong El Nino pattern will develop in the second part of the year. This pattern is expected to boost temperatures, disrupt?rainfall, and pose risks to crops around the world.

What is El Nino? Why are soft commodities, or those grown in tropical areas, particularly vulnerable?

EL NINO

El Nino occurs when trade winds weaken, causing a periodic increase in sea surface temperature. El Nino occurs in nature every two to seven year and lasts between nine and twelve months.

Weather patterns typically result in hotter temperatures around the world, droughts in some regions, such as Australia, South and Southeast Asia and Southern Africa, but heavy rain in others, including southern South America and United States.

Last week, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced that El Nino had arrived. It also said that the weather pattern will intensify with a 63% probability of a "super El Nino", or a very powerful El Nino, heading into 2027.

El Nino's dryness, heat and excess rains will be a major blow to farmers who are already struggling with price shocks for diesel and fertilisers due to the?U.S./Israeli war against Iran.

Soft commodities have seen consistent price increases during previous El Nino episodes.

According to WisdomTree, every strong El Nino over the past 55 has led to a reduction in cocoa production.

West Africa, the top cocoa-growing region, was hit with double its usual rainfall during El Nino. This left trees vulnerable to a fungus disease.

In 2024 the weather pattern reversed and West Africa experienced intense heat and Harmattan wind that was unseasonably strong and dry. This caused the trees with disease to lose their flowers.

Everyone thinks El Nino only affects West Africa. This is not necessarily true. Climate change can sometimes result in too much initial rain. Jim Roemer, of the consultancy Best Weather, said that this was his biggest concern at present.

Ivory Coast, which is the second largest bean producer in the world, and Ghana are responsible for about half of the global cocoa production. Ecuador, the third largest bean producer in the world, is prone to excess rain during El Nino episodes.

Cocoa prices almost tripled by 2024, after the West African harvest was a failure. By late 2024 they had reached record prices of over $12,000 per metric ton, making chocolate more expensive than most industrial metals.

COFFEE

El Nino can be particularly problematic for robusta as it brings increased temperatures and decreased rainfall to the top coffee-growing country Vietnam, and No. From the middle of the season onwards, Indonesia is the No. 3 coffee producer.

During the development of the crops, the adverse weather affects both countries that together account for around 50% of global robusta production. The effects are felt in the fourth quarter during harvest.

Analysts at Citi said that the dryness in Vietnam and Indonesia may reduce robusta coffee yields.

El Nino has a more subtle impact on arabica coffee. Nearly half of it is grown in Brazil.

El Nino, according to Carlos Santana of EISA's trader ECOM, could be positive for the crops Brazil is harvesting right now, as higher temperatures may prevent damaging winter frosts.

El Nino, on the other hand, is more likely to affect output in 2027. It will bring heat and dryness to Brazil's coffee-growing regions during the fourth quarter, when the new crop is being developed.

El Nino is a phenomenon that brings excessive rains in the second half the year. This can cause the sugar harvest to be disrupted and reduced in quality in Brazil, the top producer.

The No. In contrast, the weather pattern in India, which is the world's second largest sugar producer and Thailand, its No. 2 exporter reduces rainfall during summer monsoon. Thailand is the No.

India's 2026 monsoon is expected to bring the lowest rainfall for 11 years. Showers during the period of June-September crop development will be 90% below average.

Carlos de Mello of Hedgepoint, the head of sugar at Hedgepoint, estimates that a moderate El Nino would cut India's production by around 1 million metric tonnes.

The above-average rainfall that El Nino brings to Brazil's sugar region could benefit the crop next year.

Hedgepoint's de Mello stated that it was "hard to imagine a bull-market scenario for El Nino", because of the potential benefits El Nino could have on Brazil's sugar crop in 2027.

Brazil exports about half the world's total sugar.

(source: Reuters)