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German long yields are at their highest level in 15 years; ECB rate is priced to be near 3% by late 2027

German long yields are at their highest level in 15 years; ECB rate is priced to be near 3% by late 2027
German long yields are at their highest level in 15 years; ECB rate is priced to be near 3% by late 2027

On Monday, German and French government bond yields reached their highest level in more than a decade as the price of oil and natural gas rose. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh also'suggested that rate hikes might be necessary if inflation continues to exceed target.

Investors are watching closely the bond supply of both countries, as Germany increases spending on infrastructure and defense and France enters a tough budget battle.

Investors are also concerned that geopolitical tensions may fuel more defence spending.

The oil prices increased after new fighting broke out between the U.S. The Iranian army claimed that it attacked the Al Minhad Air Base of the United Arab Emirates after an attack by the U.S., but the UAE denied the claims.

Investors also pay attention to the crack spread, which is a measure of refinery margins. The ICE heating oils/Brent cracks spread During the war, oil prices were at $36 and then rose to $84.50. Even if oil price drops on a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz, margins will likely remain high while damaged refinery capacities take time to rebuild.

Natural Gas Prices at Highest Since March

The price of natural gas, which is a major driver for inflation expectations in the eurozone, increased 5%, reaching EUR70.70. This was their highest level since March. Early August, they were around EUR51.

Gas Infrastructure Europe data shows that EU gas stores are 64.7% filled, which is the lowest level ever for this time of year and 12.4% below last year.

The yield on Germany's 10-year bonds rose 5 basis points, to 3.3233%. This is the highest level since May 2011.

After Warsh's remarks, the yield curve of U.S. Treasury 2-year bonds flattened and the yields increased. On Monday, they were not much different.

Commerzbank's rate strategist,?Rainer?Guntermann, said that Bunds are not immune to the U.S. Treasuries market headwinds but they should still perform well as the markets are prepared for the next European Central Bank interest rate hike.

He added that "month-end flows" should provide temporary relief to today.

The German 2-year bond rate was up 3 basis points at 2.9237%. This is the highest it has been since July 2024. French short-dated bond yields also reached their highest level since summer 2024, at 3.1202%.

Preliminary data shows that the rate of inflation in Germany could rise this month.

Traders are pricing in the ECB’s?deposit rates at around 2.70% in December. This implies an 80% probability of a rate hike from the current 2.25%.

Investors also expect rates to move closer to 3% in late 2027. The deposit rate is priced at 2.98% for September 2027.

Mark Haefele is the chief investment officer of UBS Global Wealth Management.

"Although there is a greater risk of a hike in September, the most recent sequential?inflation figures are consistent with a further deflation," said Mr. He.

FRENCH BORROWING? COSTS AT THE HIGHEST FOR ALMOST 18 years

The 10-year yield on French bonds rose by 4.5 basis points to 4.1729%. This is the highest level since November 2008. The 30-year bond yield reached 4.9408% - its highest level since September 2008.

The yields on Italian 10-year notes and 30-year bills reached their highest levels since June 2024 and December 2023, at 4.11640% et 4.9355%.

(source: Reuters)