US consumer sentiment rises from record lows, as gas prices fall

U.S. consumer confidence bounced back from record lows early in June, as lower gasoline prices provided some relief to households. However, concerns about inflation caused by the Middle East conflict still lingered.

The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers reported on Friday that lower-income households were the main drivers of the improvement in consumer sentiment. According to AAA data, gasoline prices dropped over the last 'three weeks' from their four-year highs. Oil prices also remained below $100 per barrel, despite an unstable ceasefire. The increase in sentiment is likely due to the labor market's resilience, which has been marked by three months of job growth above expectations and a stable rate of unemployment. The U.S. war against Iran is still a threat to the economy, even though it has now been going on for four months. Donald Trump denied Friday that the United States made significant concessions to Iran. Trump called off any new attacks on Iran on Thursday, claiming that a deal was reached.

Christopher Rupkey is the chief economist of FWDBONDS. He said that gasoline prices usually peak around Memorial Day. "There's still a cost of living crisis, and goods prices won't be going down anytime soon." "The economic risks remain, but the outlook has improved."

Consumer Sentiment Index at the University of Michigan increased to 48.9 in June from a record low of 44.8 last May. The economists surveyed by predicted that the index would rise to 46. The index rose across all age groups, educational levels and political affiliations.

AAA data shows that the national average retail gas price fell to $4.11 from $4.56 last week, which was its highest level in four years. Higher-income consumers are largely insulated from the pain of high gas prices, as a recent stock market rally has increased their wealth.

Joanne Hsu is the director of Surveys of Consumers. She said that lower-income consumers showed a strong increase in sentiment, which was consistent with the fact gasoline represents a greater share of their budgets. The consumer's attention is still focused on the kitchen table. "Consumers are burdened by recent inflation increases and fear that inflation will remain high in the near future, especially in the short term."

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS MODERATE A higher cost of living fuels dissatisfaction with Trump's economy and weighs on his approval ratings. The government announced this week that consumer inflation rose above 4% for the first three-year period in May.

The Wall Street stock market?traded higher. The dollar fell against a basket currency. The yields on U.S. Treasury bonds rose.

The falling gasoline price led to a moderated expectation of inflation by consumers this month. However, the outcome will depend on the current conflict.

Jeffrey Roach is the chief economist of LPL Financial. He said, "We expect the inflation pressures will ease once the Iran conflict has simmered and supply chains have improved." If the conflict in Iran continues throughout the summer we can expect "stronger inflation headwinds" to put a 'damper' on the growth trend.

Consumer expectations of inflation in the coming year dropped from 4.8% to 4.6%, a still high level. Consumers' expectations of inflation in the next five-year period dropped from 3.9% to 3.4% last month.

Financial markets have priced in tightening monetary policies, and the high inflation rate has dashed any hopes of a Federal Reserve interest rate reduction this year. In the absence of widespread increases in energy prices, economists think the bar is high for a rate increase. Next Wednesday, the U.S. Central Bank is expected to maintain its benchmark overnight rate between 3.50% and 3.75% but drop its easing bias.

The Fed is likely to ignore the fall in inflation expectations. According to economists, respondents in the University of Michigan Survey expect higher borrowing costs in the coming year.

John Ryding is the chief economist at Brean Capital. He said that a reading of 3.4% should not be taken as an indication that the public has no longer been concerned about inflation.

(source: Reuters)