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Oil prices are choppy, stocks fall as US-Iran deal is still in flux
U.S. stocks and European shares fell on Thursday as oil prices fluctuated between gains and losses. Investors are still uncertain about the peace negotiations?between Iran and the U.S. Wall Street's?major indexes retreated slightly after?strong?chipmaker earnings drove them to multiple record highs. The S&P500 fell by 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.1% and Dow Jones Industrial Average lost by 0.6%. The oil prices settled down after a report that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait had lifted restrictions on the use of their airspace by the United States and their military bases. This allowed Washington to resume operations to escort ships through Strait of Hormuz, as early as this coming week. Brent crude futures fell 1.2%, or $1.21, to $100.06 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $94.81 down by 0.28%, or 27 cents. Both benchmarks fell by up to $5 per barrel earlier on the optimism that Washington and Tehran would reach a temporary, limited agreement. The STOXX Europe 600 index finished lower by 1.1%, after a 2.2% jump on Wednesday. Meanwhile, MSCI's largest?index for Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan reached a new all-time record, with a 1.6% gain. Japan's Nikkei reached 62,000 for the very first time. The MSCI All-Country World Index fell by 0.1% and held near record highs. OIL RISK In a note published on Thursday, Daniel Skelly of Morgan Stanley’s?Wealth Management Market Research & Strategy Team wrote that oil volatility?may have less impact on the stock market’s daily performance. But its long-term effect on inflation remains an?open? question. Brent remains around 40% higher than its level in late February, when the war started, and 10-year Treasury yields are surging - a stark reminder of the pressure that rising energy costs continue put on the world economy. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rates rose by 2.8 basis point to 4.382%. "Certainly, the clock is moving towards a time... when oil inventories are no longer able to be drawn down at the present pace and energy prices will jump significantly," wrote Investec's market strategists in a Thursday note. In March, the global market was shook by a rocketing oil price. However, a fragile ceasefire in Syria and the prospect of a settlement have fueled a rally that is based on risk. This rally has continued since April. It's been fuelled by strong earnings reports from tech companies. S&P COMPANIES? Set for ROBUST PROFIT Growth S&P 500 companies on track to achieve their highest profit growth in over four years, despite Intel and Advanced Micro Devices declining on Thursday, paring earlier gains this week. Manish Kabra is a Market Strategist at Societe Generale. He wrote a client letter on Thursday that stated: "U.S. Earnings confirm a wide-based profit boom. Record EPS (earnings-per-share) beats, record-high margins, and sharply improved '26 growth expectation." A survey of economists indicates that investors are waiting for the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report on Friday. The jobs should have increased by 62,000 in April after recovering 178,000 in March. The euro was flat at $1.174 on the currency markets. The dollar index, which measures U.S. currencies against six different units, was also flat. After recent spikes in market activity, there was speculation that Japan intervened in support of the battered currency. The yen fell 0.24% to 156.76 dollars after hitting a 10-week-high of 155 on Tuesday. Reporting by Lawrence Delevingne, Sophie Kiderlin, and Ankur Banerjee, in Boston; Editing by Elaine Hardcastle and Nick Zieminski.
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Compass is poised Compass to end Brazil's almost five-year IPO rut
Compass Gas e Energia SA is set to launch its initial 'public offering' on a Thursday, ending a nearly 5-year IPO stalemate on Brazil’s B3 Stock Exchange due to high interest rates. According to two sources familiar with the transaction, the offering of 89.3 millions shares by the existing shareholders of the gas distributor could generate around 3 billion Brazilian reais (about 600 million dollars). One person said that by early afternoon on Thursday, the orders had nearly tripled the size of the initial?offering. The second source said that despite the high demand, pricing may be at the lower end, 28 reais per share. The price range was 28 to 35 reais for each share. A sale at the upper end would equate to a valuation around 25 billion reais. If the IPO is completed as planned, Compass will be the first IPO to take place on the Brazilian stock exchange since 2021 when Raizen, which was the largest sugar producer in the world, became?public. Compass is part of Cosan’s larger push to reduce leverage and sell assets, due to high interest rates that have affected the group’s results. One person said that Cosan would use approximately 75% of the IPO proceeds to pay off debt. Cosan had planned to launch an IPO in '2020 for Compass but decided against it due to the unfavorable?market conditions. Despite the long-term local IPO drought in Brazil, companies such as Picpay, a digital banking company owned by 'the Batista Family,' and fintech Agibank have launched shares on U.S. bourses. High interest rates and concerns about Brazil's fiscal stability have stymied many companies who had attempted to go public over the past few years. (Reporting and editing by Cynthia Osterman; Luciana magalhaes)
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Reporting shows that oil-price wagers before the Iran war news totaled $7 billion.
According to traders, analysts and exchange data, there were a series of well-timed bets made on the falling oil price in March and April, totaling up to $7 billion. These bets were spread over multiple exchanges, types of fuel, and derivatives, just before Donald Trump's major announcements about Iran policy. The amount exceeds the $2.6 billion in?bets that were previously reported, and has already led to the U.S. Administration?warning staff not to use nonpublic information as a means of financial gain. A?person with knowledge of the matter said in April that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating. However, the CFTC still hasn't confirmed the investigation. They could not determine who made the bets or if they originated in America or elsewhere. These included short positions or bets on falling prices for derivatives such as ICE and CME crude oil, diesel, and gasoline futures. Bets were placed on the Intercontinental Exchange and Chicago Mercantile Exchange, two major exchanges which host benchmark futures trading for global oil and fuels. Both exchanges declined comment. A source with knowledge of the situation said that the CME is looking into the trades. Legal experts and legislators have called for the regulators to investigate if these well-timed transactions were based on leaks or inside information. The first unusual trades were noticed by traders on 23?March. The trades were made just minutes before Trump announced that he would delay his threatened attack on Iranian power infrastructure. This triggered a drop in oil prices. On April 7, Trump announced a truce with Iran, which caused a drop of up to 15% in benchmark ICE Brent Futures. The same pattern repeated on April 17 when Iranian officials and Trump discussed reopening Strait of Hormuz. And again on the 21st of April when Trump extended his ceasefire. Other media reported these trades in the front-month contracts of the two benchmark global crudes Brent and West Texas Intermediate. Initial calculations put the value of these bets at $2.6 billion on four days between March and April. The U.S. Justice Department, as well as the CFTC, did not respond immediately to requests for comments. White House spokesperson: "All federal employees are subject to government ethical guidelines that prohibit using non-public information in order to gain financial benefit." A further analysis of the trading data across exchanges showed that traders placed similar bets exactly at the same times and dates?for European Diesel and U.S. Gasoline Futures, as well as for longer-dated contracts for Brent and WTI. Calculations show the total was around $7 billion. Short selling or a sell bet is when the trader borrows a derivative from the counterparty and sells it, then buys it cheaper later on when the price drops, keeping any remaining profit. The oil price dropped by more than 10% on March 23, April 7, 17, and 21. Calculations show that, depending on when the bets were made, a $7 billion short seller could have made millions in profit. Adi Imsirovic from the Center for Strategic and International Studies and an oil trader veteran said that these trades looked "well-informed" because they were made before major announcements. He added that U.S. authorities such as the CFTC can access exchange data in order to track who made the trades, and to investigate if they choose to. ABC reported on Thursday that the U.S. The Department of Justice is investigating oil transactions worth $2.6 billion that are related to the Iran War. The DOJ did not respond to a request for comment. In March, the CFTC's Enforcement Director said that his agency was "watching" speculation about insider trading on CFTC-regulated market. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS Let's stick to the facts. The volume was unusual. The volumes were unusually high. They were in advance of important announcements", said Jorge?Montepeque, from Onyx Capital Group. He helped design the modern oil price setting system at Platts pricing agency back in the 90s. Brent crude, low-sulphur gasoline, and West Texas Intermediate crude are traded on the Intercontinental Exchange. The New York Mercantile Exchange is owned by CME Group. Trump announced at 1105 GMT on March 23 that he would delay the threatened attack against Iranian power infrastructure. LSEG data indicates that traders bet on 20,000 Brent and WTI Futures between 1049 and1050 GMT. The sales were spread over the first, second, and third month contracts. They totaled $1.35 billion. In addition, $122 million was spent on ICE Gasoil - Diesel - Futures, and $81 million was spent on U.S. gas futures. Robert Frenchman, a New York lawyer who previously worked in white-collar crimes and insider trading, said that "those quantities will not escape scrutiny." Trump's ceasefire announcement on March 23 triggered a drop in crude futures as high as 15%. This was one of the biggest intraday drops ever recorded. This announcement sent futures for gasoline and gasoil down by around 12%. Between 1944 and 1945 GMT on April 7, sell orders for oil and gasoline worth $2,12 billion were placed. This was well after the markets settled and at a time of low volumes. Trump announced minutes later a ceasefire of two weeks with Iran. Nearly $2 billion worth of Brent, WTI and gasoil futures, as well as gasoline, were sold on April 17 at 1224-1225 GMT. This was just minutes before Iranian Foreign Ministry Abbas Araqchi announced that Hormuz will reopen. Trump and U.S. officials then posted multiple posts to social media. On April 21, about $830 million in Brent and WTI futures contracts were sold only 15 minutes before Trump extended his ceasefire. (Alun John, Alex Lawler, Robert Harvey and Michelle Price contributed additional reporting from London and Washington. Editing was done by Simon Webb and David Gregorio.
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US sanctions Cuban mining and military conglomerate
The United States imposed financial sanctions on Thursday on a conglomerate of businesses run by the?Cuban military and a joint venture between Cubans and Canadians in the mining industry. This comes as the Trump Administration intensifies its pressure on Cuba's communist leadership by targeting foreign investment sources. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has commented on the January military raid that was conducted to capture the leader of Venezuela's longtime ally Cuba. Cuba is next" and blocked most oil deliveries to the country. This worsened power outages in the island. Trump signed an executive directive last week that broadened U.S. Sanctions against Cuba. President Miguel Diaz-Canel called the move "coercive." According to?that order?, Secretary of state Marco Rubio stated that the Trump administration targeted Grupo de Administration Empresarial SA (GAESA), a military conglomerate which?U.S. Officials claim that Ania Guiillermina Morera, the Executive President of GAESA, controls at least 40 percent of Cuba's economic output. In a statement Rubio accused Cuba of allowing intelligence operations by nations hostile to the U.S. Sherritt announced on its website Thursday that, with immediate effect, it has suspended its direct involvement in joint ventures in Cuba. The U.S. demanded that Cuba open up its state-run economic system, pay compensation for expropriated properties by the former government of Fidel Castro, and hold "free" and fair elections. Cuba has said that its socialist form of government is not negotiable. Cuban top officials have accused Washington of "hints at a possible military action" in order to "liberate Cuba" and claim that decades of U.S. economic and social sanctions against the island's government is what has caused its current economic and social problems. Rubio held talks earlier this week with military officials at the U.S. Southern Command, which oversees U.S. activities in the Caribbean. He was pictured shaking hands with the commander of its Southern Command,?General Frank Donovan. They were standing in front of a map Cuba. Rubio stated on X that "Today's sanction shows that the Trump Administration will not sit back while Cuba's Communist regime threatens national security in our Hemisphere." "We will keep taking action until the regime makes all the necessary political and economic reforms," Rubio said on X. The sanctions were announced shortly after Rubio met with Pope Leo at the Vatican, who expressed concern about the rising tensions in the U.S.-Cuba relationship and called for dialogue. (Reporting and editing by Michelle Nichols; Paul Simao, Cynthia Osterman, Michelle Nichols; Daphne Psaledakis; and Ismail Shakil).
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Colorado River will reach record lows after worst ever Rockies snowpacks
According to a federal forecast issued on Thursday, Colorado River flows will reach record lows in Lake Powell this summer after the lowest ever snowpacks were recorded in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming. According to the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, a March heatwave "prematurely" melted any snow that fell during a warm and dry winter. This will result in Colorado River flows to Powell being only 13% above average from April to July. This would be the lowest spring-summer runoff since 1963, when the reservoir was created. It supplies water to 40 million people in cities like Los Angeles, Phoenix, and Las Vegas. Cody Moser said, "There's no good news this winter" in a webcast. Scientists attribute the U.S. Southwest's megadrought to climate change. The scientists have attributed this to rising temperatures in the region, which has caused aridification, and a fall in stream levels. The seven states in the Colorado River?Basin that rely on the river will be affected by low flows. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation began to reduce the amount of water released from Lake Powell in order to prevent it from falling too low to allow hydroelectric production. The seven states of the river basin have been in talks for a long time to come up with a deal on water sharing this year. If they fail, then the federal government will intervene. It operates Powell Reservoir and other reservoirs along?the river. Nevada, Arizona, and California - the states in the lower basin - offered on Friday to reduce their water consumption. Eric Kuhn is a water researcher who expected state and local governments would impose additional outdoor restrictions in order to deal with?any possible water shortages this year. Kuhn, former Colorado River water manager in the state of Colorado, said: "I do not see anyone who is going to shut off water inside houses or fire hydrants." Phoenix has called for voluntary conservation measures in order to deal with the likely water shortages. Los Angeles limits outdoor sprinkler watering to three days per week. A strong El Nino system that is forecast could improve flows in the lower basin, with heavy monsoon rains. This weather phenomenon is a result of warm Pacific water and causes wetter conditions in southern United States. Andrew Hay, New Mexico (reporting; Aurora Ellis, editing)
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The head of the IEA warns that energy markets are heading into a 'troubled sea' as a result of the Iran war.
Fatih Bibil, the head of the International Energy Agency said that the 'war' in Iran continues to drain'millions' of barrels of 'oil every day. Brent oil futures fluctuated between $96 and $102 per barrel on Thursday, following mixed reports of an interim deal to end the war and possibly reopen Strait of Hormuz. This key trade chokepoint has been closed since the conflict began at the end of Feb. Birol warned that such volatility is likely to continue, and that the supply would return gradually once the war ended. He said that oil security would still be a major issue. He said that Canada, as the world's fourth-largest oil producer, should find new markets for its production, and added that other countries looking to expand their energy trade after the?Iran war would likely consider it an "obvious choice". He said that if the 'war' continues to disrupt oil supply, the IEA will be ready to release a?additional amount of barrels from its strategic reserves. They have so far?released 20 percent of their oil reserves in an effort to?mitigate rising prices. Reporting by WaLone in Toronto and ShariqKhan in New York. Writing by Liz Hampton. Editing by Chris Reese & Nick Zieminski.
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Compass is poised Compass to end Brazil's almost five-year IPO rut
Compass Gas e Energia SA is expected to price its initial public offer on Thursday. This will end a 'nearly 5-year drought' of IPOs in Brazil, caused by high interest rates. According to two people familiarized with the transaction, the sale of 89.3 millions shares by the existing shareholders of the natural-gas distributor could generate around 3 billion Reis ($600 Million). One of the people said that by early afternoon on Thursday, the orders were almost three times larger than the offer. The second source, however, added that despite the high demand, pricing could be at the lower end, at 28 Reais per share. The price range for the offering was 28 to 35 reais per share. A sale at the upper end would imply a valuation around 25 billion reais. If the offering is completed as planned, Compass will be the first IPO to take place on the Brazilian stock exchange since 2021 when Raizen, which was the largest sugar producer in the world, went public. Compass's offer fits in with Cosan’s larger push to sell assets, and reduce leverage. High interest rates have been a factor in the group's poor results. One person said that Cosan would use approximately 75% of its IPO proceeds to pay off debt. Cosan attempted an IPO in 2020, but shelved it due to unfavorable markets conditions. Despite a?prolonged local IPO drought?, Brazilian companies such as Picpay, a digital banking company owned by the 'Batista Family, and fintech Agibank?have?launched their shares on U.S. markets. Despite the high interest rates, and concerns about Brazil's fiscal stability, several companies have been unable to go public. Reporting by Luciana Magnalhaes, Editing by Cynthia Osterman
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Stocks dip, oil choppy as US-Iran peace deal remains elusive
U.S. stocks and European oil prices fluctuated, but little changed on Thursday following a report that Iran wouldn't allow the United States reopening the Strait of Hormuz if it had an "unrealistic plan." Wall Street's major stock indices have retreated slightly from their previous session's multiple records, largely due to strong chipmaker earnings. The S&P fell by 0.4%. The Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.1%. And the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.5%. Sources and officials reported on Thursday that the United States and Iran had been edging towards a temporary and limited agreement to end their war. The draft framework would have stopped the fighting, but left the most contentious questions unresolved. In normal times, a fifth of all oil and liquefied gas in the world passes through the Strait of?Hormuz. The STOXX Europe 600 index finished lower by 1.1%, after a 2.2% jump on Wednesday. Meanwhile, MSCI's Asia-Pacific broadest stock market index outside Japan reached a new all-time record, with a 1.6% gain. Japan's Nikkei has crossed 62,000 points for the first. "A Good Direction" Samy Chaar, chief economist at Lombard Odier, said that while the Middle East situation is uncertain, "the market momentum is moving in a positive direction" and they have taken notice of it. Chaar stated that the oil price has fallen from its peak, which relieves pressure on bond and yield curves. This is good news for equity valuations and currencies. Chaar said that a strong earnings season, coupled with a macroeconomic climate that was relatively robust, contributed to the positive mood in the market. The MSCI All-Country World Index remained at record highs, despite a slight?downturn of 0.1%. Brent crude dropped about 0.7%, to $100.56 per barrel. It had fallen nearly 8% Wednesday. Brent remains around 40% higher than its level in late February, when the war started, despite the recent drop. Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury yields are surging, a reminder that energy costs continue putting pressure on the global economic system. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rates rose by 3.4 basis point to 4.388%. Investec's market strategists said in a Thursday note that the oil inventory drawdowns are reaching a breaking point. In March, the global market was shook by a rocketing oil price. However, a fragile ceasefire in Syria and the prospect of a settlement have sparked a rally that is fueled by strong earnings reports from tech companies. S&P Companies Set for Robust Profit Growth S&P 500 companies on track to achieve their'strongest profit growth since more than four years. Meanwhile, Samsung, SK Hynix, and TSMC have boosted the positive tone in Asia with their dazzling results. Manish Kabra is a Societe Generale market strategist. He wrote in a Thursday client note that "U.S. earnings confirmed a broad-based profits boom. Record EPS (earnings-per-share) beats, record-high margins, and sharply?upgraded growth expectations for '26" Investors are awaiting the U.S. Non-farm Payrolls Report on Friday. According to a survey, jobs should have risen by 62,000 in April after rebounding by 178,000 in March. The euro was last seen at $1.175. The dollar index, a measure of the U.S. currency in relation to six other currencies, was unchanged. The yen remains a focal point after recent spikes prompted speculation on the market that Japan intervened in support of the battered currency. The yen fell 0.2% to 156.66 dollars, after hitting a 10-week-high of 155 on Tuesday.
Block increases its annual gross profit forecast on consumer spending strength
Block, led by Jack Dorsey, raised its full-year outlook Thursday. The 'payments firm' benefited from strong growth in its core businesses and resilient consumer spending.
The Oakland-based company now expects its annual gross profit in 2026 to be $12.33 Billion, up from the previous forecast of 12.20 Billion.
The company's shares jumped by 7% during extended trading. As of the latest close, the stock had risen by 9%.
U.S. consumer expenditure remained resilient in the first three months 2026. This was largely due to a stable labor markets and wage growth.
The U.S./Israeli war against Iran also had a positive impact on the economy.
Block's Cash App, Square and Block's Cash App businesses grew strongly in the quarter.
Cash App, a peer-to-peer mobile payment platform, saw its gross profit jump 38% in the third quarter. The volume of consumer lending at the company jumped 82% from $17.6 Billion a year ago.
The results are the culmination of a strong reporting season in the payments sector. Card giants Visa, and Mastercard have also posted 'robust earnings.
The adjusted?profit for the three-month period ended March 31 was $513,000,000, or 85 cents a share. This compares to $355,000,000, or 56 cents a share, one year ago.
Block also incurred $852 Million in restructuring charges and other costs in the first quarter.
In early 2018, the company announced that it would be reducing over 4,000 positions as part of an overall overhaul to integrate artificial intelligence into its operations.
(source: Reuters)