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Softs-Raw Sugar Prices fall to Five-Year Low, Cocoa Also Weakens

Raw sugar futures fell to their lowest level in five years on Wednesday. The potential for a large global surplus during the 2025/26 crop season is putting pressure on the prices.

Dealers say that the expected increase in sugar production in India, which is the second largest producer in the world, has added to the concerns over excess supplies, as forecasts of the anticipated surplus have increased.

After hitting a low of 14,05 cents, raw sugar futures fell 0.11 cent or 0.8% to settle at 14.11 cents.

It appears that less cane is being diverted than expected to make ethanol, which has led to a rise in production.

In a recent note, broker Czarnikow stated that "we now think India will produce more than sugar in 2025/26 with 32.8 million tonnes due to less sucrose going to ethanol."

India produced 26.1 million metric tonnes in 2024/25.

Czarnikow increased its forecast of the global sugar surplus in 2025/26 by 1.2 millions tons to 8.7million tons.

The price of white sugar fell by $0.70 or 0.2% to $412.70 per ton.

Concerns about weak demand following last year's price surge have weighed on cocoa futures.

Barry Callebaut announced on Wednesday that they expect sales of their cocoa products will decline by a percentage between the low and mid single digits during its next financial year due to high cocoa prices.

Market attention is also focused on the weather conditions in West Africa where crops are being harvested.

In a report published on Wednesday, LSEG Research and Insights stated that "Wet weather could delay cocoa harvesting in southern Ghana and the western Ivory Coast and dry weather might favor Nigeria and Cameroon’s key crop areas."

New York cocoa fell $204, or by 3.1%, from $6,396 per ton to $4,696 pounds. London cocoa also lost 3.2%, falling to 4,696 pound per ton.

The price of arabica coffee increased 2.1%, to $4.136 a pound. Reporting by Nigel Hunt, Marcelo Teixeira, Editing by Shailesh Kumar, David Goodman and Rod Nickel

(source: Reuters)