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Oil prices to remain stable as supply increases, but concerns about Russian output offset the outlook

A poll on Tuesday showed that oil prices will remain almost unchanged this year despite the increased supply of both OPEC+ producers and non-OPEC ones. Concerns about a possible glut are tempered by the uncertainty surrounding Russian production.

According to a survey conducted by 32 economists and analyst in September, Brent crude is expected to average $67.61 a barrel in 2025. This forecast is just 4 cents lower than the previous month's prediction.

Brent, which opened Tuesday at $67.22, has averaged about $69.90 this year.

West Texas Intermediate, which was forecast to average $64.65 in August, is now expected to average $64.39 by 2025. Early Tuesday morning, it was trading at $62.70 and has averaged $66.60 in 2025.

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said that prices are being shaped primarily by the tug-of-war over supply. OPEC+'s increases and the resumption of supply from northern Iraq is being offset by a threat of disruptions in supply from Russia.

OPEC+, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, and its allies, including Russia, agreed earlier this month to increase oil production by 137,000 barrels a day from October, bringing the total production increase this year to more than 2.5 million barrels a day.

Analysts said that this was the main driver behind a looming surplus of supply, along with an increase in output from non OPEC+ producers. The surplus is expected to grow as a result of this, and the expectation that demand will slow down due to the weak economy growth caused by trade tariffs.

Analysts are still concerned that sanctions, attacks on infrastructure, or Moscow’s own policies could further curtail Russian exports, maintaining a floor below prices.

Last week, after a series of drone attacks by Ukraine on Russian refineries, Alexander Novak, the Deputy Prime Minister, was quoted saying that Russia would introduce a partial export ban on diesel until the end the year, and extend the existing export ban on gasoline.

The International Energy Agency's latest monthly report stated that world oil supplies would increase more quickly this year, and a surplus may expand in 2026, as OPEC+ producers increase their output, and the supply outside of the producer group increases, contrary to OPEC’s updated outlook.

Analysts expect the demand to increase by an average of 0.7 million Bpd in this year.

The consensus of analysts' price forecasts also highlights their view that, while geopolitical risk remains elevated, especially in the Middle East, and Russia, it is unlikely to translate into sustained price gains.

The key narrative for Q3 and Q4 of 2025 is the struggle between a fundamentally low market (oversupply due to OPEC+ unwinding, and non-OPEC+ expansion) and a high probability of price spikes in the short term driven by geopolitical risk," said Zain Vaida, analyst with MarketPulse.

(source: Reuters)