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India auto dealers cautious about June sales due to rare earth restrictions and high inventory

Indian auto dealers expect a cautious demand in June, as the industry is impacted by high inventory levels and tighter financing.

The Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations of India stated that while an above-normal rainy season is expected to boost sales of tractor and two-wheelers in semi-urban areas and rural areas, a shortage of rare earths, which are critical for EV production, could dampen demand.

Around 55% of members of the trade body expect flat sales in June.

Automakers and dealers are counting on the new EV launch to help them grow this year, and offset the slowdown in sales of combustion engines cars in urban areas.

"... "Global supply-chain headwinds - from rare-earth shortages in EV components, to ongoing geopolitical conflicts - may keep urban consumer sentiment under control," FADA said.

While EV sales in India are growing faster than gasoline cars, they only accounted for 2.5% of 4.3 million vehicles sold during the last fiscal year.

The suspension of China's exports of rare earths, magnets, and other related materials has disrupted supply chains vital to automakers and aerospace manufacturers. Semiconductor companies, military contractors, and automotive manufacturers have also been affected.

Export restrictions have caused global automakers to warn of production halts.

Although Indian automakers have not yet publicly disclosed the impact of curbs, a private industry group told the government privately last month that it expected production to "come to a grinding stop" as soon as the end or early June.

Bajaj Auto, India's largest e-scooter manufacturer, said last week that any delays in lifting export restrictions would affect the production of electric scooters starting July.

TVS Motor has also warned that an impact is expected by June or July.

FADA said that dealers continue to face a high inventory of automobiles and commercial vehicles.

In May, inventories of cars were 52-53 days above the FADA recommended level. (Reporting and editing by Sonia Cheema and Niveditarjee in Bengaluru, Niveditarjee in New Delhi and Saumyadeb Chkrabarty).

(source: Reuters)