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Copper prices fall on the back of weak Chinese economic data
Prices of copper fell on Tuesday as a result of weak economic data coming from the world's largest consumer, China, and renewed fears about an artificial-intelligence bubble. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper?contract closed daytime trade down 0.79% to?91.840 yuan (about $13,041.01) per metric ton. As of 0700 GMT, the benchmark three-month price for copper at the London Metal Exchange dropped 0.42% to $10,607 per ton. According to Monday's data, China's factory production slowed down to its lowest level in 15 months, and new home prices also continued to fall. Red metal, used in construction, manufacturing, and power plants, declined because of disappointing data. This is despite the weaker dollar, which supports commodities that are traded in greenbacks by making them more affordable for investors using other currencies. Copper also suffered from renewed fears of the AI bubble burst, which triggered a sell-off after the metal reached an all-time peak on Friday. Nickel, another base metal in the SHFE, fell to a low of 111.770 yuan per ton, a drop of 40 months. The daytime trading closed down by 2.36% at 112,290 yuan per ton. The Shanghai nickel followed the 'London benchmark which fell as low as $14,235 per ton on a Monday. This was the lowest price since April. On Tuesday, the three-month nickel price on the LME fell 0.36%, to $14,295 per ton. Nornickel, a Russian mining giant, raised its nickel surplus expectations on Monday. The 2025 surplus, which is a substantial increase from the 120,000 tons they projected in July, is estimated at 240,000 tons. In 2026, the surplus is also expected to rise significantly from the 130,000 tons predicted in July. Since?2023, nickel, a metal that is used in stainless steel, batteries and other products, has seen a large supply surplus due to a surge in production from Indonesia. The traders stated that the recent weakness is due to the weak demand for?metal before year-end. Nickel pig iron (NPI), Nickel sulfate Since mid-October, the number of shipments has been declining. NPI is used as a "key feedstock" for stainless steel and nickel sulfate, a raw material?for batteries. Shanghai nickel is down more than 11 percent this year and London copper is down by almost 7%. The tin market in?Shanghai posted the largest decline. Daytime trading closed down 3.15 % to 320.620 yuan per ton. Aluminium fell 0.21%, while zinc and lead both lost 1.44%. Tin fell 0.92% on the LME, while zinc dropped by 0.94%. Aluminium gained 0.40%, and lead grew 0.15%.
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South32 will mothball Mozambique's smelter by March, as power talks fail
South32, an Australian company, announced on Tuesday that it would place the Mozal aluminium plant in Mozambique, under care and maintenance by March. The cost will be $60 million. The Perth-based company has been in negotiations with the Mozambique government and power providers for years to come up with an agreement that would allow it to continue its energy-intensive operations. The parties remained in deadlock over an appropriate electricity rate, which was exacerbated due to the ongoing drought conditions affecting HCB's electricity supply, said South32 CEO Graham Kerr. Kerr was referring to the hydroelectric producer Hidroelectrica de Cahora Bassa. Eskom, the South African utility, will take over if HCB, Mozal's primary power supplier, is unable to provide all of Mozal’s electricity needs. South32 said that the contract expires in March and it has not purchased raw materials to continue operations after this date. Aluminium production is energy-intensive. This makes a reliable and affordable electricity supply an important concern for producers of aluminium, such as South32. Mozal, in which South32 has a stake of 63.7%, is a major contributor to the aluminium production by South32, with just under 29% of total aluminum production for fiscal 2025. South32 reported a $372 million impairment to the Mozal Smelter's results for fiscal year 2025, reflecting "the financial impact" of the shutdown. The company's shares closed the day at 2% less than they started, just minutes before the news was released. (Reporting and editing by John Biju, Bengaluru. Harikrishnan Nair and Janane Venkatraman)
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Investors turn cautious as they await US year-end data
Gold prices fell on Tuesday as investors became cautious in anticipation of important U.S. inflation and jobs data that could give clues to Federal Reserve policy for the New Year. As of 0637 GMT, spot gold fell 0.3%, to $4,290.33 an ounce. Bullion is up 64% this year, breaking multiple records along the way. U.S. Gold Futures fell 0.4% to $4,316.40. "We are right at the previous?high of $4,380 that was set in mid-October. The market is asking if there is enough conviction to continue higher or if momentum is starting to fade. According to CME's FedWatch, traders?have priced in a 76% chance of a U.S. 25-basis point rate cut?in January. Some?even expect two cuts. The data docket for this week is expected to provide new clues as to how quickly the Fed will ease policy in 2026. After a 43-day shutdown of the government, data collection was curtailed, including October's unemployment rates. Fed Governor Stephen Miran stated that current inflation is above target but does not reflect the underlying dynamics of supply and demand which are driving price increases. The markets are also awaiting the weekly jobless claims - and the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, which is due this week. Bullion that does not yield is typically found in environments with lower rates. Silver spot fell 1.4%, to $63.03 per ounce after reaching a record high of $64.65 an ounce on Friday. Tim Waterer, KCM Trade's Chief Market Analyst, said that silver still has a bullish tone as the?industrial demands show no signs of abating after a 121% rise this year due to a firm industrial demand and tightening inventory. The spot price of platinum rose 1.3%, to $1.806.46, and palladium grew 1%, to $1.582.68. (Reporting from Ishaan arora and Sherin Elizabeth varghese, Bengaluru. Editing by Sherry j. Phillips and Harikrishnan Nair.
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South Africa increases coal exports after Colombia ban
South African miners have increased thermal coal exports after Colombia, the top supplier, in August banned all shipments of this fuel for power generation to Israel. Data from Kpler LSEG, and DBX Commodities revealed that. Colombia and South Africa are among Israel's loudest critics. The South American nation issued a presidential decree that enacted the export ban, after accusing Israel for killing tens-of-thousands in Gaza, including children. South Africa accused Israel of genocide before the International Court of Justice. Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected this claim. Data from Kpler shows that Colombian coal exports into Israel fell to zero during the three-month period ending November after Bogota redoubled its efforts to ban and blocked supplies under long term deals. South Africa's exports increased by 87% in the last three months of November, to 474,000 tons on a yearly basis. It is expected to ship 170,000 tons next month. The South African Revenue Service's latest data showed that coal exports to Israel increased 20% in the three months ending October, to 667.442 tons - the highest three-month period for the last two years. Patrick Bond, Director of the Centre for Social Change at the University of Johannesburg, who tracks coal exported from South Africa to Israel, said: "Four words describe this profound hypocrisy. Talk left, walk right." Bond stated that more than a dozen South African coal exporters are shipping electricity-grade coal to Israel since 2023. Kpler data shows that all cargoes Israel imported since September were from South Africa. The South African mines ministry has not responded to requests for comment. Trade Minister Parks Tau stated last year that sanctions imposed on Israel could expose the country to legal challenges under World Trade Organization regulations. Colombia, a member of the WTO, has also not faced any challenges following the implementation of its ban. SOUTH AFRICA EXPORTS SURGE Kpler data shows that South Africa's coal exports to Israel have increased over the past four years. By 2025, its coal exports to Israel will be at their highest level since 2017. Its share of the seaborne coal market in Israel is expected to triple from levels in 2024 to 55%. According to data, Colombia will account for 42 percent of Israel's 2,000,000 tons of coal imports in this year. The data shows that Russia exported just one cargo weighing 55,000 tons in 2024. This represents less than 3%. Alexandre Claude of London's DBX Commodities said, "I expect Colombian exports into Israel to stay close to zero in the short- to mid-term." "Colombia is re-directing a little more coal to other buyers." He said that the country's portfolio is already highly diversified. Israel's energy and economy ministries have not responded to requests for comment. Israel Electric Co. senior official said that the country will stop using coal for its major energy source by 2027. "The coal era in Israel is over." The official stated that we will stop importing the coal and instead use natural gas for our main energy source. Coal will only be used as a back-up in an emergency. (Reporting from Sudarshan Varadhan in Singapore, Wendell Roelf and Steven Scheer respectively in Cape Town and Jerusalem; Additional reporting provided by Nelson Banya at Cape Town; Editing done by Jamie Freed).
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Holcim purchases majority stake in Cementos Pacasmayo, a Peruvian manufacturer of building materials
Holcim announced on Tuesday that it had paid $550 million to acquire a majority stake in Cementos Pacasmayo in Peru, in order to expand the Swiss cement manufacturer's presence in South America. Holcim will take a 50.01 % stake in Cementos Pacasmayo in the deal, which values the Peruvian firm at $1.5 billion, including debt or $1.1 billion in equity value. According to the Peruvian law on takeovers, Holcim is required to offer more shares of the 'company and will likely increase its stake in the company, Holcim said. Cementos Pacasmayo expects sales of $630 millions for 2025, with a margin of earnings before interest tax, depreciation, and amortization of 28%. Holcim has made its 15th acquisition in 2025. The company is now focusing more on South?America, Europe and Asia after spinning off the North American?business to a separate?company called Amrize. Peru is a 'attractive market' for construction companies because of the housing shortage, and a desire to invest in infrastructure. Holcim has entered the Peruvian construction market in recent years and purchased three other companies. (Reporting and editing by Dave Graham, John Revill)
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Investors turn cautious as they await US year-end data
Investors were cautious on Tuesday as they awaited key U.S. inflation and jobs data that could give fresh clues to Federal Reserve policy expectations for the New Year. As of 0450 GMT, spot gold fell 0.3%, to $4,289.17 an ounce. Bullion is up 64% this year, breaking multiple records. U.S. Gold Futures fell 0.5% to $4,315.80. "We're just up against the former high of $4,380 that was set in mid-October. The market is asking if there is enough confidence to break higher or if momentum is starting to fade. According to CME's FedWatch, traders are pricing in 76% of a U.S. 25-basis point rate cut in January. Some even expect two cuts. The data docket for this week is expected to provide new clues as to how quickly the Fed will ease policy in 2026. After a 43-day shutdown of the government, data collection was curtailed, and October's unemployment rate, among other things, is not included in the combined U.S. Employment Reports for October and November, which are due on Tuesday. Fed Governor Stephen Miran stated that current inflation is above target but does not reflect the underlying dynamics of supply and demand which are driving price increases much closer to the 2% central bank's target. The markets are also awaiting the weekly jobless 'claims, and the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE), due this week. Bullion that does not yield a return is typically found in lower-rate environments. Silver spot fell 1.7%, to $62.88 per ounce after reaching a record high on Friday of $64.65. Tim Waterer, KCM Trade's chief market analyst, said that silver still has a bullish tone despite the fact that industrial demand is not showing signs of abating. This comes after a 121% rise in this year due to a tightening inventory and a firm industrial and investing demand. The spot price of platinum rose 1.7%, to $1.812.80. Palladium increased 0.6%, to $1.579.44. Reporting by Ishaan arora and Sherin Elizabeth varghese from Bengaluru, editing by Sherry Jacobi-Phillips & Harikrishnan Nair
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Stocks struggle before jobs data, central bank meetings
Asian stocks fell on Tuesday while the dollar drifted to two-month lows. Investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of the release of several U.S. economic data including the jobs report that could 'help gauge the direction of Federal Reserve policy for next year. Risk assets were under pressure due to the defensive mood, including bitcoin. Bitcoin, which?hit an all-time low of two weeks in the previous session, was down by 0.3%, at $86,017.67. Nasdaq Futures dropped 0.8%, and European Futures declined 0.5%. Hang Seng's technology index fell 2.7%. The MSCI broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell by 1.45%, its lowest level in three weeks. Investors are watching the U.S. combined employment report for October and November due on Tuesday. They will also be looking at the inflation report, which is scheduled for Thursday. However, a few key details may not be available because the longest government shut down in history prevented data from being collected. Investors don't wish to be caught in long-term, crowded trades, especially if rates rise. Charu Chanana is chief investment strategist for Saxo. She said that tech was the first domino. The Fed cut interest rates last week as expected. They predicted that there would be a further rate cut in 2026, though the markets have already priced in two next year. This highlights the importance of the economic data for the near-term. Chanana explained that if the data was mixed or slightly softer than expected, the soft-landing story would still be intact. However, it might not be a backdrop for a large risk-on rally. The real risk is "a hawkish shock." If inflation or job growth is hotter, "yields will rise and risk assets in particular, long-term growth, will feel it first." As the term of Fed Chair Jerome Powell ends in May, speculation has been rampant about a potential frontrunner. The expectation of a more dovish Fed chairman has also increased bets on rate cuts in 2019. CENTRAL BANK BONANZA This week, attention will be focused on the policy decisions of the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. The BoE will likely cut rates while the BOJ will likely hike. There is a general consensus that the ECB's rates won't change, but there are still questions about whether a rate increase for Europe is in the works next year. The euro, in terms of currencies, was trading at $1.1751. It had reached its highest level since the beginning of October during the previous session. Sterling was slightly weaker, at $1.3368. The dollar index (which measures the U.S. currency against six other currencies) remained steady at 98.295, although it remained near its lowest level in almost two months. The Japanese yen strengthened to 155.07 against the U.S. Dollar ahead of Friday's BOJ policy announcement. Markets have already priced in a rate increase, so all that remains is for 2026. The market's reaction will be determined by the nuances in the BOJ's communications and if Governor Ueda is able to create a hawkish image without having to commit fully on the timing of a?further increase," said Gregor Hirt. The BOJ may choose to emphasize data dependency and assess the effects before signalling clearer further moves. This could be interpreted by the markets as being cautious or dovish. Oil prices dropped in commodities as investors weighed the potential impact of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Brent crude futures dropped 0.54%, to $60.23 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.6%, to $56.48 a barrel. Both contracts fell more than 4% in the last week due to expectations of an oil surplus worldwide by 2026. The gold price fell 0.6%, to $4,275.41 an ounce. This is below the highs of last week, which were around $8,275.41. (Reporting and editing by Shri Navaratnam in Singapore, Jacqueline Wong and Ankur Banerjee)
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MORNING BID EUROPE-Markets in Grinch-y mood before data deluge
Ankur Banerjee gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets Investors are avoiding risky bets ahead of a slew of economic data coming from around the world and the central?bank meeting in what looks to be an eventful last full week of the calendar year. The European session's focus will be on the UK wage data, which comes just days before a vote on interest rate cuts on Thursday. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey may change his mind and tilt the balance in favor of a reduction. The manufacturing data for Europe in December will also be on the agenda. This information will give us more insight about the economy heading into next. The market has quickly shifted its focus to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in 2026 after it cut interest rates as expected last week. The Fed is only expecting a single rate reduction, but traders are pricing at least two rounds. This divergence is likely to be resolved by the incoming U.S. Economic data, which includes the always-important and much-anticipated jobs report. The combined report for October and November will finally be released, after a 43-day shutdown of the government. As the shutdown prevented the collection of household data, it could be difficult to interpret the data. It's not surprising that the markets were completely risk-off in?Asian time, with tech stocks suffering a major blow. Stocks in South Korea, Taiwan and other tech-heavy countries fell by more than 1%. European equity futures also pointed to an opening lower. Bitcoin, the most common risk barometer is near its two-week lows. It remains under pressure. The yen smelt a bid for a safe haven and firmed up to 154.80 against the dollar before Friday's Bank of Japan policy meeting. The markets are largely expecting a rate increase, but the focus is now on when it will happen. The following are the key developments that may influence Tuesday's markets: Economic events: UK wage data from October, December flash PMI for France, Germany and the euro zone, UK; December economic sentiment in Germany
US could boost rate of replenishing oil reserve, Energy Secretary Granholm states
The U.S. might quicken the rate of renewing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as maintenance on the stockpile is finished by the end of the year, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm informed on Tuesday.
Granholm said she believes the global oil market is well-stocked which she does not anticipate a big increase in oil and gas costs in the next short while.
The Energy Department this year has actually been buying about 3 million barrels of oil each month for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve after offering 180 million barrels in 2022 following Russia's intrusion of Ukraine.
The sale, the largest ever from the SPR, was meant to control gasoline rates after the intrusion. However it sank levels in the reserve to the most affordable in 40 years, leading to criticism from Republicans that it left the U.S. emergency situation oil buffer too thin.
It could pick up more than that, Granholm told in an interview in Washington, about the 3 million barrel each month rate. She stated that a number of the SPR's four sites on the coasts of Texas and Louisiana have actually been in maintenance.
All four websites will be back up by the end of the year, so one could imagine that pace would pick up, depending upon the market, she stated.
The U.S. has bought back about 38.6 million barrels and canceled congressionally mandated sales of 140 million barrels through 2027. The administration has said it wants to keep purchasing oil as long as the cost stays listed below $80 a barrel .
We wish to continue to benefit from the market when it is right for the taxpayers, Granholm said.
(source: Reuters)