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The strong dollar and ample supply of oil weigh on the price of crude oil, which is expected to fall for a third consecutive month.
The oil prices fell on Friday and are heading towards a third consecutive monthly decline as the stronger dollar has capped gains in commodities, while a rising global supply from major producers offsets the effect of Western sanctions against Russian exports. Brent crude futures fell 33 cents or 0.51% to $64.67 per barrel at 0027 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was $60.22 per barrel, down by 35 cents or 0.58%. In a recent note, ANZ analysts stated that a stronger USD impacted investor appetite for commodities. The greenback gained after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated on Wednesday that a rate reduction in December is not guaranteed. Brent and WTI prices are expected to drop by about 3% this October, as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other major producers will be increasing production to gain market shares. The increased supply will also help to cushion the impact on Russian oil exports, which are currently restricted by Western sanctions. These include China and India. Sources familiar with the discussions said that OPEC+ was leaning toward a modest increase in output for December. The group will meet on Sunday. Eight OPEC+ member countries have increased their monthly production targets by a combined total of 2.7 million barrels a day - about 2.5% global supply – in a series. The data released by the Joint Organizations Data Initiative on Wednesday showed that crude exports in August from Saudi Arabia, which is the world's top oil exporter, reached a six-month record of 6.407 millions barrels per day. They are expected to continue rising. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA), in a report, also reported a record production of 13,6 million bpd for the week. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that China had agreed to start the process of buying U.S. Energy. He added that an extremely large transaction could take place regarding the purchase of oil from Alaska. Analysts are unsure whether the U.S. - China trade agreement will increase Chinese demand for U.S. Energy. Michael McLean, Barclays' analyst, said that Alaska produces less than 3% of the total US crude output. "We think Chinese purchases would likely be driven by market forces," he wrote in a Barclays note. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed; Florence Tan)
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Australian shares snap a three-day losing streak as Banks and miners drive the Australian share price upward
Australian shares rose Friday, ending three consecutive sessions of losses. Banks and miners saw gains, while Origin Energy shares fell to a new two-month-low after the company reported a sequential decline in its first quarter revenue. By 0004 GMT, the S&P/ASX 200 Index had risen 0.5% to 8,930.80. The benchmark closed Thursday 0.5% lower. Origin, a power producer, was one of the biggest losers in the benchmark index after it reported a 12% decline in revenue from its stakes in the Australia Pacific LNG Project. This was due to lower LNG prices and volumes. The firm's shares fell 6.3% to A$11.81 in their lowest trading session since April 7. Separately shares of insurance broker Steadfast Group were the biggest losers on the benchmark index, dropping up to 18.9% to A$5.03, their lowest level since November 16, 2022. After the company's bell rang on Thursday, Robert Kelly, its CEO and managing director, announced that he would temporarily step down from his position while an investigation was conducted by an outside party into a complaint lodged against him. On the local stock exchange, the banks rose 0.8% while the "Big Four", which includes the four largest banks, rose between 0.1% to 1.3%. Gold miners rose on the backs of higher gold prices, which boosted their gains by 1.2%. The shares of gold miners Evolution Mining (up 3.5%) and Northern Star Resources (up 3.8%) rose respectively. JB Hi Fi continued to fall for the second consecutive session. The firm had posted on Wednesday a dramatic sequential decline in sales growth for its Australia and New Zealand segment in the first quarter. Shares of Mayne Pharma, a potential acquirer, fell to their lowest intraday performance ever after it was revealed that Australia's Treasurer would block the A$672 ($436.67$) takeover. The benchmark S&P/NZX50 index in New Zealand rose 0.4% to 13,509.0.
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Electric vehicles end China's annual holiday spike in gasoline consumption
Tianyu Jiang drove his electric car from the southwest Sichuan basin in China to Beijing during the national holiday week this month. "I used a petrol vehicle and never took an EV on such a long trip. But driving an EV over a distance doesn't seem like a problem any more," Jiang said. The expansion of the charging infrastructure has helped to reduce the use of gasoline during the "Golden Week" holiday in October. According to Chinese consultancy Sublime China Information, China's gas demand has fallen by 9% on an annual basis in October, to 12.5 millions tons. The average daily consumption is roughly the same as September. The sagging holiday demands are symptomatic for the broader decline of Chinese fuel consumption due to the wider adoption of EVs, which signals the end of China's decades-long role of being the primary driving force behind new global oil demand. The peak in gasoline consumption was reached in 2023 in the world’s largest importer of crude oil. According to the research division of the state oil company Sinopec, the demand is expected to drop by more than 4% in this year compared with 2024. During the nine-month period of this year, EVs accounted for almost half of new car sales. Transport ministry reports that a fifth of the 63.5 millions car trips made during the eight-day break was in hybrid or electric vehicles. The daily use of electricity at charging stations - a proxy for the use of EVs - increased by 45,73% during Golden Week in this year compared to 2024. China's drive to build charging infrastructure has led to a 54.5% increase in the number of charging ports at the end September. Jiang said that both charging and refuelling during peak travel times means waiting. If you need to charge your car, you can find a charging station within 10km (6 miles) of the highway. It's also cheap. (Reporting and editing by Clarence Fernandez in Beijing, Sam Li and Lewis Jackson)
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Brazil's Gerdau saw its adjusted Q3 profit fall due to domestic market.
The Brazilian steelmaker Gerdau reported on Thursday a 23.9% drop in its adjusted quarterly net profit compared to the same period a year ago, as its booming business in North America has been offset by poor results in its home market. In the quarter July-September, Gerdau's net profit adjusted fell to 1,09 billion reais (201.71 millions). The company's adjusted earnings before taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), which is a measure of its profit, came in at 2,74 billion reais. This was down 9.2% from the previous year, but in line with what analysts expected in a LSEG survey. The company stated that the results were impacted heavily by steel oversupply, which drove prices down despite constant production. Its second largest market is Brazil, just behind North America. The domestic market's gross profit fell 70.1% from a quarter earlier, to 403 millions reais. This is despite the fact that the steel production was only down 0.4% during the same period. Gerdau's gross profits in North America jumped 48.9% from the previous year to 1.5 billion reais during the third quarter. The total revenue for the quarter was 18 billion reais. This is up 3.5% compared to a year ago and higher than analysts' expectations of 17.6 billion. $1 = 5.4039 Reais (Reporting and editing by Brendan O'Boyle).
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Miner Vale beats net profit for the third quarter
Vale Rio de Janeiro-headquartered Vale posted a $2.69 billion net profit for the July-September period, up 11% year-over-year and above the $2.1 billion expected by analysts polled by LSEG. The adjusted earnings before interest taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), which was $4.4 billion, represented a 21% rise, beating the estimates of $4.1billion. Vale published its sales and production data last week. Iron ore production reached the highest level since the fourth quarter 2018 with 94.4 million metric tonnes. The company's net revenue increased by 9% from the same quarter last year to $10.4 billion. Analysts expected a revenue of $10.3 billion. Vale has also reduced its estimate of copper costs per ton this year from $1,500 to $1,000. Previous projections ranged between $1,500 to $2,000 per tonne. The company projected that its nickel costs would range between $13,000 to $14,000 per ton. This is a significant increase from the previous range of $14,500 to $15,500. (Reporting and editing by Brendan O'Boyle; Roberto Samora, Andre Romani)
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Deforestation in Brazil’s Amazon reaches 11-year low before COP30
Data released by the government on Thursday showed that deforestation rates in Brazil's Amazon rainforest dropped 11.08% between January and July of last year, a record low. The data was released days before Brazil hosts the United Nations Climate Summit known as COP30. This is a victory for President Luiz inacio Lula Da Silva who wants to highlight his government's achievements on the environment at the conference. Lula has committed to ending all deforestation within the country by 2030. Amazon destruction has decreased by half since the start of his tenure in 2023. Inpe, the Brazilian space agency, released a report that showed the Amazon had been destroyed by approximately 5,796 square kilometers in the past year, the lowest number since 2014. Even in my best laid plans, I never would have imagined we would be at this point where there is a 50% decrease in deforestation," said Environment Minister Marina Silva during a press briefing. Deforestation in Brazil's Cerrado Savanna fell by 11.49% to 7,235 sq km, the lowest in six years and the second consecutive decline following four years of increasing deforestation, including Lula's inaugural year in office. Environmentalists have criticized the government for its support of Petrobras plans to drill near Amazon River's mouth. (Reporting and writing by Lisandra Pagaguassu, Brasilia. Editing and editing by Leslie Adler & Matthew Lewis.)
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Sloviansk's Zelenskiy, Ukraine: two dead in Russian attack against power station
Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the president of Ukraine, said that a Russian bomb attack on a Ukrainian power plant in Sloviansk killed two people on Thursday and injured several others. In his video nightly address, Zelenskiy described the attack on the Donetsk Region near the frontline as "strictly terrorism". He claimed that energy sites are the primary targets of Russian drones and missiles. Could not independently verify this account. According to prosecutors in Donetsk Region, Russians attacked private homes in the city Kramatorsk and killed one person. They also injured three others. Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and other Russian targets will be the main Russian targets as Russian troops slowly advance through Donetsk. (Reporting and editing by Cynthia Osterman, Ron Popeski, and Bogdan Kochubey)
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Sugar prices hit five-year lows as surplus forecasts swirl
Investors weighed the news of an U.S. China trade truce as they analyzed the world sugar price's fifth-year-low for a forth consecutive day. The raw sugar futures traded on the ICE, which are used to price physical sugar all over the world, settled down by 0.14 cents, or 1%. They had previously hit their lowest level since October 2020, 14.07 cents per lb. After touching their lowest level since December 2020, white sugar futures dropped 0.9% to $414.00 per metric ton. Michael McDougall, an independent sugar analyst, noted that the weather forecasts for key sugar-producing areas are still benign and boosting crop prospects. Meanwhile, oil prices continue to be under pressure due to a lack details in the U.S. China trade agreement. The sugar price in Brazil is still two to three cents lower than the parity for ethanol, so the message to Brazil's cane mills should be to produce more ethanol and less sugar. McDougall stated that "the trend is lower, and some are talking about 10-13cents. But when too many people look further down, it is a preliminarily signal that we will not see that." Sugar production in Brazil, the world's largest producer, grew faster than expected during the first half October. It increased by 1.25%, versus a 0.6% expected increase. Mills have reduced the cane they allocate to sugar production, and increased ethanol production. Datagro, a Brazilian consultancy, had forecast last week that the global sugar deficit would turn into a surplus in 2025/26 of 1,98 million tons from a 5,000,000-ton surplus. To limit sugar losses, the state of Uttar Pradesh in India has increased the price mills have to pay for their new crop. This should make sugar exports more difficult. Other soft commodities also rose, with arabica coffee up 0.3% or 1.3 cents per lb to $3.92, and robusta coffee rising 0.7% to $4.641 per ton. London cocoa increased 0.4%, reaching 4,374 pounds a ton. New York cocoa also rose 0.2% to $6,058 per ton. (Reporting and editing by Ed Osmond, Alan Barona and May Angel)
North Korea states it attempted new fuel in satellite launch that ended in intense surge
North Korea's latest satellite launch blew up in a fireball before dropping into the Yellow Sea simply minutes after lifting off, however experts say the effort showcased new strides in the nucleararmed country's race for area.
North Korea said its latest effort to release a military reconnaissance satellite failed in flight on Monday during the rocket's first stage, which included a brand-new liquid oxygen and petroleum engine.
A preliminary analysis suggested that the cause of the failure included the freshly developed liquid-fuel rocket motor, however other possible causes were being investigated, a report brought by state media KCNA stated.
Although state media did not name the rocket or release images, experts stated it was more than likely various from the Chollima-1 rocket used in the successful satellite launch in November 2023. The Chollima-1, which also suffered a number of explosive test failures, utilizes hypergolic fuels, compounds that can be saved at room temperature however ignite on contact each other, requiring cautious handling.
U.S. officials and independent experts stated the Chollima-1 appeared to be based upon systems established for North Korea's nuclear-tipped global ballistic missiles, which generally do not use liquid oxygen due to the fact that of frigid temperature levels required for storage.
A petroleum fuel and liquid oxygen engine might suggest that Russia, which pledged last year to assist North Korea's. satellite program, might have supplied help, stated Lee. Choon-geun, an honorary research fellow at South Korea's Science. and Technology Policy Institute.
Even if it stopped working, it is a substantial leap, he stated, noting. that a few of South Korea's space rockets were at first. established with Russia years ago and use comparable innovation. Russia is the strongest nation for liquid oxygen-kerosene. fuel, and our Naro and Nuri rockets have embraced it through. technical cooperation with Russia.
Liquid oxygen boils at -183 ° C(-- 297 ° F ), and requires. specialised fuel storage and other equipment, Lee stated. That may. represent why North Korea carried out several static rocket. tests late in 2015, he added.
It is quite difficult to fix combustion instability. problems of this fuel system and use products and parts that. can hold up against extremely low temperature levels, Lee said.
Some experts questioned why North Korea would change. engine types, but Lee stated it could permit Pyongyang to separate. its civilian space program from the ballistic missiles prohibited by. the United Nations Security Council.
Russian experts have gone to North Korea to help with. the satellite and space rocket program, Yonhap news company. reported, citing an unnamed South Korean senior defence. official.
Neither Moscow nor Pyongyang have detailed what aid is. being supplied.
Shin Jong-woo, a senior scientist at the Korea Defense. and Security Online forum, stated that if Russia helped design the brand-new. rocket or satellite, North Korea would likewise more than likely requirement. Russian parts well into the future, deepening the. cooperation.
North Koreans can re-launch quickly if they get and. evaluate data correctly for that two-minute flight, Shin stated.
South Korea's military, however, stated it might take. North Korea a long time before it can try to introduce again.
South Korea released video footage on Tuesday that its. armed force said revealed the minute the launch ended in failure.
The one-minute black-and-white video offered by the South's. Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) revealed what seemed an. explosion in the sky followed by flashes.
The video was recorded by an observation device on a South. Korean patrol vessel, the JCS stated.
Video launched on Monday by Japanese broadcaster NHK,. shot from the Chinese border city of Dandong, showed a similar. ball of flame that officials stated was most likely exploding fuel.
Nuclear envoys of South Korea, the United States and Japan. had a call on Tuesday and highly condemned the launch as. a direct offense of the U.N. Security Council resolutions. prohibiting the North's use of ballistic missile technology, Seoul's. foreign ministry said.
The launch came hours after China, South Korea, and Japan. finished up a rare three-way summit in Seoul.
(source: Reuters)