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Russell: The China crude storage conundrum sets a price floor and ceiling
Does China's crude oil stockpile have a positive or negative impact on the price of crude? There is no easy answer, because much of the information that the market relies on is simply unavailable. This leads to speculation and uncertainty. China doesn't disclose how much crude oil it stores in strategic and commercial reserves. It also doesn't state its ultimate goal for inventory. The market must rely on anonymous sources in the Chinese oil industry to provide a steady drip of information. While useful, this is not definitive about what China, the largest crude buyer, is doing. The number of barrels of crude oil that China has so far stored this year is estimated by many analysts, but the majority of them cite at least 500,000 bpd. This number is consistent with the calculation of China's excess crude. The total volume of imports, domestic production, and refiners' processing are added together, then subtracted. The official data doesn't include some volumes that are processed by small refineries and petrochemical facilities. How has this affected market? Brent crude oil futures, the global benchmark, have been relatively stable since April. They trade in a range of $65 per barrel, with a short spike during the conflict between Israel & Iran. Prices would likely have been lower if China's demand for imports had consistently been 500,000 bpd less than it is. China's stockpile has enabled the eight members of OPEC+, to reduce their voluntary reductions of around 2.5 million bpd. without crashing prices. It is then a question of how much oil China will likely store in the coming years to reach its goal. The results can vary. The amount of oil China has in strategic and commercial stores is estimated to be between 800 million and 1.4 billion barrels. The Chinese government has also been speculating about how much oil they want to store, and the highest estimate is around two billion barrels. There is no consensus on the date by which they would like to complete the process. However, the consensus is 2028. There are many possible outcomes depending on how you view their current reserves and where they hope to be. This would mean that oil prices would rise if China wanted to add 1 billion barrels of storage over a period of three years. If you assume that the country already has around 600 million barrels of oil in tanks, and only wants to add 600 millions more, this would amount to approximately 550,000 barrels per day over the next three year. This level is around the current storage flow, and so does support oil prices but doesn't necessarily push them higher. China is also known to be flexible when it comes to building up its crude oil inventories. It will buy more when the price of crude oil is reasonable, and pull back when prices are too high. According to LSEG Oil Research, the September imports of oil fell to 10,83 million bpd, down from 11,66 million bpd during August. The month of September was the weakest since February, and the decline in imports followed the spike in prices in June when Brent hit as high as $81.40 per barrel during the conflict between Israel and Iran. The bulk of the cargoes arriving in September would have been planned during this period when prices were higher. It is likely that Chinese refiners opted to reduce their imports while they waited for lower prices to return. China's oil stockpiles become a stabilising force for the price of crude. China will increase its crude oil purchases if the prices remain relatively stable and low, providing a floor for the market. However, it will reduce imports if they rise, providing a ceiling. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Mexico: At least 44 dead following torrential rains
The government announced on Sunday that at least 44 people died in Mexico as a result of flooding and heavy rains. Tropical storms Priscilla, and Raymond brought torrential rains that triggered landslides in five states. A government statement stated that 18 people were killed in Veracruz, 16 in Hidalgo and nine in Puebla, with one person in Queretaro. The government of President Claudia Sheinbaum managed a response plan for 139 affected communities. The Mexican military posted photos of people being evacuated using liferafts. Homes were covered in mud, and rescue workers had to wade through waist-high water through the streets. In coordination with the Governor and the Governors as well as the various federal authorities, we continue to pay attention to the emergencies in Veracruz and Hidalgo as well as Puebla, Queretaro and San Luis Potosi. Sheinbaum stated on X that the National Emergency Committee was in perpetual session.
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South Carolina Island shooting leaves four dead and at least 20 wounded
The Beaufort County Sheriff's Office reported that four people were killed in the shooting and 20 others injured at a restaurant on an island in South Carolina. The Beaufort County Sheriff's Office said that deputies responded to Willie's Bar and Grill in St. Helena Island shortly before 1 am and found several victims with gunshot injuries. Authorities said that four of the injured are in critical condition. The sheriff’s office stated that it was investigating but refused to give further details. The office refused to reveal the names of those who died pending notification of their families. The sheriff's department said that hundreds of people were present at the time the shooting occurred. The sheriff's department said: "This is a tragedy and a difficult incident for all." St. Helena Island has a reputation as the epicenter of Gullah geechee culture, a group of descendants of African slaves. The bar and restaurant where the shooting took place describes itself as serving authentic Gullah food. Gun Violence Archive defines mass shootings as those where four or more individuals are shot. These incidents have increased in frequency in the U.S. over the last decade. Americans are divided on the issue of possible policy solutions. Democrats support more gun restrictions, while Republicans favor better enforcement of violent crime laws and gun rights. (Reporting from Ted Hesson, Washington; Additional reporting provided by Jasper Ward, Washington; Editing done by Sergio Non and Mark Porter.)
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Taiwan's chip industry is not affected by China's rare earths restrictions
Taiwan's Economy Ministry said that the new Chinese restrictions on rare earths will not have a significant impact on the semiconductor industry as these metals are different from those needed in the chip sector. China tightened its control of the rare earths sector in advance of the talks between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. Beijing added five new elements to its export controls and increased scrutiny on chip users. Taiwan's Economy Ministry said in a press release about China's new regulations that the rare earth elements covered by the expanded prohibition differ from those required for Taiwan's semiconductor process, and therefore no significant impact is expected on chip manufacture at this time. It added that the majority of products or derivatives for domestic use containing rare Earths are sourced from Europe and Japan. Taiwan is the home of the largest contract chipmaker in the world, TSMC. It produces the vast majority advanced chips which are a critical component for artificial intelligence applications. The ministry said that China's recent expansion of controls may affect global supply chains, including those for electric vehicles and drones. It added that the impact would need to be closely monitored. On Sunday, China justified its restrictions on the export of rare earth metals and equipment by claiming that they were based on concerns about their military applications in a period of "frequent war". (Reporting and editing by Raju Gopikrishnan; Ben Blanchard)
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US intelligence assists Ukraine in targeting Russian energy infrastructure, reports FT
Financial Times reported that the U.S. had been helping Ukraine launch long-range attacks on Russian energy infrastructure for months as part of a joint effort to weaken Russia's economy and force Vladimir Putin to the negotiation table. The newspaper reported that U.S. intelligence helped Kyiv to strike Russian energy assets including oil refineries far beyond the front lines, citing anonymous U.S. and Ukrainian officials familiar with this campaign. Requests for comments were not immediately responded to by the White House, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s office or Ukraine's Foreign Ministry. The Russian Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment. This month, Moscow claimed that Washington and the NATO alliance regularly provided intelligence to Kyiv regarding the war Putin started in February 2022. The Kremlin's Dmitry Peskov said that the use and supply of NATO and US infrastructure to collect and transmit intelligence to Ukrainians was obvious. The FT reported that U.S. Intelligence helps Kyiv to shape route planning and altitude decisions, as well as timing and mission choices, enabling Ukraine’s long-range one-way drone attack aircraft to evade Russian defences. Three people with knowledge of the operation said that the United States was closely involved at all stages in planning. According to a U.S. official, Ukraine chose the targets of long-range attacks and Washington provided intelligence about the sites' vulnerability. Two U.S. officials said in early February that Washington would provide Ukraine intelligence on long-range targets of energy infrastructure in Russia as it considers sending Kyiv missiles which could be used for such strikes. Officials from the United States said that they had also asked NATO members to provide similar assistance. Zelenskiy stated on Saturday that he discussed Russian attacks against the Ukrainian energy system during a "positive" and "productive" phone call with U.S. president Donald Trump. "We discussed the opportunities for bolstering our air defense as well as concrete agreement that we are working to ensure." Zelenskiy wrote on X that there are solid options and ideas for how we can truly be strengthened.
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Taiwan doesn't depend on China for rare earths
Taiwan's Economy Ministry said that most rare earth materials are imported from Europe, Japan and the United States, but it is still too early to assess the impact of China's new restrictions on the semiconductor industry. China tightened its control of the rare earths sector in advance of talks between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. Beijing added five new elements to the controls and increased scrutiny on chip users. In a statement on China's new regulations, Taiwan's Economy Ministry said that the majority of rare-earth materials required domestically were supplied by Europe and the United States. The impact of the semiconductor industry on its operation still needs to be assessed and reassessed. "We will continue to monitor any changes in raw materials costs and indirect effects of supply-chain adjustment," the company said. Taiwan is the home of the largest contract chipmaker in the world, TSMC. It produces the vast majority advanced chips which are a critical component for artificial intelligence applications. On Sunday, China had defended its restrictions on the export of rare earth metals and equipment. It said that they were motivated by concerns about their military applications in a period of "frequent war". Ben Blanchard reports.
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Beijing accuses the US of raising trade tensions and defends rare Earth curbs
China called Donald Trump's recent U.S. Tariffs on Chinese Goods Hypocritical on Sunday. It defended its curbs to exports of rare-earth elements and equipment but did not impose new levies against U.S. goods. Trump responded on Friday to Beijing's latest export controls with additional tariffs of 100 percent on China's U.S. bound exports and new export controls for critical software by Nov. 1. Wall Street has been rattled by the renewed trade tensions. They have sent shares of Big Tech tumbling. They are also worried about foreign companies that depend on China's production for processed rare earths or rare earth magnets. And they could even derail a meeting between Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping scheduled later this month. China's Commerce Ministry said that its export controls for rare-earth metals - described by Trump as "surprising and very hostile" on Friday - were a result of a series U.S. actions since bilateral trade negotiations in Madrid last month. Beijing cited as examples the addition of Chinese firms to a U.S. blacklist of companies and Washington's imposition port fees on China linked ships. These actions have seriously damaged China's economic interests and undermined the climate for bilateral trade and economic talks. China is firmly against them," said the ministry. Beijing did not explicitly link these U.S. measures to its export restrictions on critical minerals. Instead, it said that its curbs had been motivated by concerns about the military applications of these metals in a period of "frequent war". The U.S. also delayed announcing a similar levy on U.S.-bound imports to China, unlike earlier this year when both superpowers gradually increased tariffs against each other, until the U.S. was at 145% and China's rate was 125%. The right way to deal China is to not threaten to impose high-tariffs at the drop a hat. China's stance on tariff wars is consistent: "We don't like to fight but we're not afraid to fight," said the Commerce Ministry. China's refusal to respond immediately to Trump's first salvo could open the door for both countries in negotiating a deescalation.
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Protests in Tunisia's Gabes intensify amid an environmental crisis
Tunisian Police fired tear gas at protesters in front of the Tunisian Chemical Group (CGT) headquarters for phosphates located in the southern city Gabes after residents stormed into the facility to demand its closure due to environmental pollution and respiratory illness. The protest shows the tensions that President Kais Said's government is under, which are already stretched by the deep financial and economic crisis. They must balance the demands of public health with the production phosphate, Tunisia’s most valuable resource. The protest turned violent when the police used tear gas to force the protesters away from the site. They then chased them through the streets of the city. Witnesses reported that protesters had set fire to the branch office in the city of the complex administration. Emergency teams were trying extinguishing the fire. Protesters in the city blocked roads. Witnesses and videos posted on social media said that earlier in the day demonstrators were at the facility, chanting slogans for its dismantling and closure. Saied, in an attempt to calm the anger and protests that were escalating, met with the Ministers for Environment and Energy late Saturday night, and asked them to send a delegation to make the necessary repairs to the phosphate unit of the complex. Khaireddine dbaya, a protester, said: "Gabes is a city that kills. People are struggling to breath, and many suffer from cancer, or have bone fragility, due to the severe air pollution." GABES SUFFERING ENVIRONMENTAL CRISE CGT has not responded to attempts to comment on the situation at Gabes. It has never responded to pollution accusations in the past. Saied claimed last week that Gabes is suffering from an "environmental attack" because of what he called old, criminal policies. He blamed them for widespread illnesses and the destruction local ecosystems. In 2017, the authorities committed to demolish the Gabes Complex and replace it by a facility meeting international standards. They acknowledged that its emissions were a threat to local residents. The plan has not yet been implemented. Gabes' Chatt Essalam Sea receives tons of industrial waste every day. Environmental groups have warned that marine life is severely affected. Local fishermen report a dramatic drop in fish stocks in the last decade. This has hit a vital income source for many in the area. This week, a new wave of protests erupted after dozens schoolchildren suffered from breathing problems caused by toxic fumes coming from a nearby plant. Videos of panicked parents, emergency crews and students struggling to breath fueled public outrage. Calls for the closure of the plant were also sparked. The government wants to revitalize the phosphate sector by increasing production by fivefold, to 14 million tons by 2030. This will allow it to take advantage of a growing global demand. Reporting by Tarek Amar; Editing By Toby Chopra & Alistair Bell
Ukraine accuses Russia that it deliberately severed the external link with Zaporizhzhia Plant
Ukraine's Foreign Minister accused Russia of intentionally severing an external power line that connected the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station, which is owned by Russia, to Moscow's grid.
Andrii Sybiha, Ukrainian Foreign Minister, said that Moscow is testing a reconnection with Russia's grid.
Ukraine has long been concerned that Moscow might try to redirect output from the plant to its grid. Russian officials, however, have denied that they intend to restart the power plant which was seized by Moscow forces during the first weeks of their February 2022 invasion.
Despite the fact that it is currently without electricity, this plant has been without an outside source of electricity for almost three weeks. The power to cool the fuel inside the plant and prevent a meltdown has been provided by emergency diesel generators.
Sybiha, writing in English on X, wrote that "Russia deliberately broke the plant's connections with the Ukrainian grid to forcefully test reconnection." He condemned the "attempt theft of a peaceful Ukrainian nucleus facility".
Sybiha stated that Moscow tries to deceive the IAEA, the entire technical and diplomatic community and pretends that the problem was caused by someone else.
Both sides have accused each other of shelling which caused the outage.
The IAEA (the U.N. nuclear watchdog) announced last week that a process to re-establish the external link is underway. It has repeatedly called for both sides not to take any actions that could compromise nuclear safety.
In his video nightly address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy stated that it wasn't in Russia’s interest to restore security at this plant. He said that the IAEA must take a "clearer and more honest position".
The Russians did not immediately respond to the Ukrainian accusations.
Interfax reported last week that Sergei Ryabkov, Russia's Deputy Foreign Ministry, said there was no reason to restart the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant for the time being in the absence external power sources. Rosatom, the state-owned nuclear corporation of Russia, was reported to be preparing for a restart before that report. (Reporting and editing by David Gregorio; Ron Popeski)
(source: Reuters)