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China's product imports reveal economy struggling for momentum: Russell

China's imports of major products continued to lose momentum in July, with petroleum arrivals plunging to the weakest in almost 2 years, while those of iron ore, coal, copper and gas were mostly consistent.

The headline-grabber in Wednesday's official information release was the drop in petroleum imports to 9.97 million barrels per day in July, the lowest daily given that September 2022.

China, the world's biggest importer of crude, has seen arrivals slump this year, with imports of 10.90 million bpd in the very first 7 months of the year, down 2.9% from the 11.22 million bpd over the very same duration in 2023.

Petroleum imports are down about 320,000 bpd in the first seven months of 2024, a figure that stands in sharp contrast to the need growth projections from leading industry groups like the Company of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Company (IEA).

OPEC's July monthly oil market report stayed with the group's. projection that China will lead global demand development this year,. with an increase of 760,000 bpd.

The IEA's view on China is less optimistic, but the firm. still anticipates China will represent about 40% of this year's. global increase in unrefined need, which corresponds to 388,000 bpd.

With China's imports really falling in the first seven. months of the year, it would take an amazing turnaround. for the remaining five for the OPEC and IEA projections to be. understood.

With petroleum imports looking anaemic, it's worth looking. at imports of other significant commodities.

In the beginning glimpse the photo does not always look that. weak, with imports of iron ore, coal, copper and natural gas all. publishing boosts in July from the previous month.

But transform imports to a per-day basis, and July looks. substantially less remarkable.

STABLE IMPORTS

Iron ore imports were 102.81 million metric heaps, up 5% to. the 97.61 million taped in June, but daily July. arrivals were 3.32 million heaps, simply greater than June's 3.25. million.

They were likewise in line with the 3.29 million lots daily. from may, and below the 3.39 million in April.

The overall image for China, which purchases about. three-quarters of global seaborne iron ore, is that imports of. the essential steel raw material are consistent, with little variation in. recent months.

This is in spite of the benchmark Singapore Exchange futures. price trending lower considering that its high up until now this year of. $ 143.60 on Jan. 3, to the close of $102.66 on Tuesday.

Imports of unwrought copper revealed a comparable trend to iron. ore, with July arrivals of 438,000 loads being just above the. 436,000 in June.

However every day July's arrivals were 14,130 heaps, listed below. the 14,530 from June.

For natural gas, imports of both melted gas and. pipeline materials in July were 10.86 million heaps, which is. 350,300 lots per day, while June saw arrivals of 10.43 million,. or 347,700 each day.

In May, gas imports were 365,500 tons each day and in. April they were 343,300 per day.

The one possible exception to the soft product imports is. coal, where July imports of 46.21 million loads were the highest. since December.

But even with coal, the daily figures reveal a relatively. constant pattern, with July's 1.49 million loads being the exact same as. for June.

May's coal imports were weaker at 1.41 million lots each day,. but April's were more powerful at 1.51 million.

Putting the import information together shows that arrivals of iron. ore, copper, gas and coal have been mostly consistent in. current months.

The viewpoints expressed here are those of the author, a columnist. .

(source: Reuters)