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US petroleum costs pull back amid doubts about further stock draw: Kemp

U.S. petroleum stocks have diminished quicker than typical over the last four weeks--. squeezing hedge funds running brief positions, keeping spot. costs firm and the futures curve in a high backwardation.

But with most brief positions now bought this source of. support has actually melted away and both spot prices and calendar. spreads have actually retreated in recent trading sessions.

Commercial unrefined stocks across the United States. depleted by 24 million barrels in between June 21 and July 19,. according to the Energy Info Administration (EIA).

Crude stocks typically deplete at this time of year as. refineries increase processing to satisfy need for gasoline throughout. the summer holiday driving season.

But the drawdown in crude stocks this year has been more. than twice as fast as the average over the previous ten years.

As an outcome, unrefined stocks were 8 million barrels (-2%. or -0.15 standard deviations) listed below the seasonal average on July. 19.

The draw more than eliminated a surplus of 6 million barrels. ( +1% or +0.12 standard variances) four weeks previously.

Chartbook: U.S. unrefined stocks and prices

Most of the stocks were drawn from refineries and tank farms. along the Gulf of Mexico (-17 million barrels) and around the. delivery point for the NYMEX WTI futures contract at Cushing in. Oklahoma (-3 million).

The Gulf Coast and the Cushing hub are the parts of the U.S. petroleum refining system most carefully integrated with. worldwide markets.

The drawdown more than halved the seasonal surplus on the. Gulf Coast to 11 million barrels (+5% or +0.34 standard. variances) from 25 million barrels (+10% or +0.79 standard. variances) four weeks earlier.

And it somewhat widened the deficit at Cushing to 11 million. barrels (-26% or -0.69 basic discrepancies) from 10 million. barrels (-22% or -0.66 basic deviations).

BULLISH SENTIMENT

The depletion of crude stocks has actually been accompanied by an. increase of investment money into futures contracts based on U.S. crude rates expecting a further boost in costs.

Hedge funds and other money supervisors acquired the. equivalent of 79 million barrels of futures and choices in the. NYMEX and ICE WTI agreements over the 4 weeks ending on July. 16.

Purchases were faster than for Brent, where fund supervisors. bought the equivalent of 44 million barrels, according to. records submitted with regulators and exchanges.

In consequence, fund supervisors had actually amassed a combined. position of 239 million barrels (48th percentile for all weeks. because 2013) in WTI compared to only 184 million (33rd. percentile) in Brent.

The number of hedge fund brief positions banking on a fall. in WTI prices had actually been squeezed down to simply 21 million barrels. on July 16 from 41 million 4 weeks earlier and as numerous as 96. million in early May.

Inventory depletion and the associated short squeeze have. required the NYMEX WTI futures curve into a reasonably steep. backwardation.

The three-month calendar spread has remained in an average. backwardation of practically $3 per barrel so far in July compared. with less than $1.50 in May.

Nevertheless, the fund purchasing and backwardation have actually looked a. little overdone offered the relatively moderate stock exhaustion so. far and the restricted increase in area prices.

OVERHEATED MARKET?

Cushing inventories 20% listed below the seasonal average have actually been. related to much narrower backwardations in the past making. the market look a bit overheated.

Similarly, backwardations of this scale would normally be. related to an increasing area price trend; rather costs have. fallen slightly compared to three months back.

Maybe traders anticipate an intentional raid on deliverable. stocks at Cushing in the next few weeks-- repeating the. drawdown in between July and September 2023.

The squeeze on Cushing stocks in the 3rd quarter of. 2023 sent out spot rates rising to almost $94 per barrel and the. backwardation flying to more than $6.

Maybe they likewise anticipate U.S. crude production will be. interrupted by the forecast for an unusually large number of. typhoons of higher-than-normal intensity.

Because the start of June, traders have been placing. themselves for a relatively large depletion of global petroleum. inventories over the 3rd quarter.

But doubts about another physical and futures squeeze appear. to have crept in, with spot prices and spreads falling to. multi-week lows in current trading sessions.

Hedge fund brief positions in NYMEX WTI have actually currently been. minimized near the most affordable level over the last years so there. is not much scope to squeeze them further.

Brief positions are just 6 million barrels above the. lowest-ever level considering that 2013, getting rid of one of the major assistances. for rates and spreads.

U.S. oil rates are not likely to rebound much in the next two. months-- unless there is another depletion of deliverable. materials at Cushing and a more comprehensive drawdown on the Gulf Coast.

Related columns:. - Oil traders expect large inventory attract 3rd quarter (June. 28, 2024). - U.S. oil futures surge as Cushing stocks vaporize( September. 28, 2023). - Oil rates surge as stocks drain away from Cushing( September. 15, 2023). - Diminishing U.S. crude stocks draw in hedge funds (September 11,. 2023)

John Kemp is a market expert. The views expressed are. his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.

(source: Reuters)