Latest News
-
Brazil to decide on gasoline subsidy next week, plans rural debt restructuring
Brazil's decision to remove a gasoline subvention has been?postponed to next week.?Finance minister?Dario?Durigan said on Thursday that the uncertainty surrounding the Iran war is what has driven oil prices up. Durigan told a local radio station that the government initially planned to implement the measure this coming week, following the partial elimination of tax incentives related to diesel announced last week. He said that the conflict in the Middle East is still highly uncertain and caution should be exercised in deciding whether to withdraw benefits to protect consumers from price shocks. The economics team's advice to Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva reflects the leftist approach of the administration amid increasing oil revenues. Latin America's biggest economy is a net exporter. Durigan stated that the ethanol blend is expected to increase from 30% to 32% in the next few days. The economic team supports the addition of biodiesel in diesel fuel. A MINISTER SAID RURAL DEBT RESOLVING PROGRAM IS EXPECTED TO BE IMPLEMENTED IN THE NEXT DAYS Durigan stated that after more than a full year of talks with the agricultural sector, the government would issue an executive order to allow the restructure of rural debt in the next few days. This measure is an alternative to the bill that Congress has currently passed, which the government deems too broad. He said that the program is expected to cost between 389 million and 583 million dollars ($389 millions?and $583million) per year. This excludes the implicit subsidy costs. The stock of renegotiated loans should total just over 100 billion reais. Borrowers who qualify for a more lenient repayment schedule must show that they have suffered severe losses in successive harvests as a result of adverse weather conditions such as floods or droughts. Farmers who have?suffered losses greater than 30% due to price volatility? will also be eligible. Durigan stated that producers who are involved in climate-related cases will be able renegotiate debts for a period of 10 years with a grace period of two years and no upfront payment.
-
The Red List reveals that deep-sea mining threatens the molluscs which hold promise for science.
The world's largest conservation organization warned that deep-sea mining is threatening to exterminate half of the molluscs species clustered around underwater vents. These molluscs have?promising? potential for medicine and technology. IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature) reiterated its call for a ban on these operations in advance of the U.N. led talks that will take place this month. Growing numbers of companies are extracting 'critical minerals, such as copper or cobalt, from superheated fluids released by natural hydrothermal vents on the ocean floor. Although these species make up less than 1% the global biodiversity of molluscs, they play an important role in the food webs at deep-sea vents. According to IUCN’s "Red List", 62% of vent dwelling mollusc species--125 of 201 -- are now classified as being at risk of extinction because of mining operations that create sediment blankets which disrupt ecosystems. Dr Chong Chong, a Mollusc Specialist Group member at the IUCN, said that deep-sea mines would destroy the ecosystem. He explained that the loss or molluscs in a vent field would mean the death of other vent species. Chen stated that some vent molluscs had already proved to be valuable for the human society. For example, a scaly foot snail has developed a process of biomineralisation that helps researchers create nanoparticles that are used in new technologies like solar cells. Other vent molluscs are being studied in order to develop alternative materials to plastics. He added that allowing these species to go extinct would mean losing biological solutions for future challenges in medicine and materials. The Red List has been?released in advance of a U.N. meeting on the International Seabed Authority, which will be held from July 13 to 31 in Jamaica to discuss how to'regulate' metals extractions from the ocean floor. Like other environmental groups IUCN?has called for these activities to banned. However, many governments have the opposite view. The U.S. administration of President Donald Trump has expedited permits for U.S. firms searching for minerals in international waters.
-
Fortuna CEO: Fortuna expects Senegal project permit in a few weeks
Fortuna Mining's chief executive said that the company expects to get the final permit for the Diamba Sud gold project in Senegal, within weeks. He added that the country can become a regional mining hub with the support of the government. Senegal is a traditional mineral sands, phosphate and phosphate mining country. However, it has been pushing to expand into the gold industry. It is a small producer of gold by West African standards. The country's output in 2025 will be about 334,000 ounces, which is well below the leaders in the region, Ghana and Mali. Endeavour operates the Sabodala Massawa mine and Morocco's Managem runs the Boto Mine. Fortuna is a West Africa focused gold miner that has invested nearly $400 million in developing Senegal’s Diamba Sud Project. The company aims to produce the first gold in 2028, and a peak annual production level of approximately 230,000 ounces. SENSEGAL'S FASTER LIFTING In an interview on Wednesday with Fortuna CEO Jorge Ganoza he said that Senegal approved Diamba Sud’s environmental and social assessment within nine months. He noted?that similar approvals can take years in Peru, Mexico, and parts of North America. He said, "We are only waiting on our final building permit which should arrive in the next few weeks." The Senegal mines ministry didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. The recent Senegal political turmoil, which included cabinet changes and tensions involving President Bassirou Diomaye Faye, ousted Prime Minister Ousmane sonko and other officials, have not affected investment plans. He said that the?Canadian mining company is placing orders to secure delivery dates in light of tightening supply chains. According to the feasibility study of the company, a project of this size could have an internal rate-of-return of 60% and a 'net present value' of approximately $1 billion. This is based on gold prices of $3.500 per ounce. Fortuna has spent more than 15 million dollars on the exploration of the project. Further discoveries could make it more profitable. Fortuna, which is also evaluating other acquisition and exploration options in Senegal, Ivory Coast, and Guinea, has announced plans to "deepen" its footprint in this region. Ganoza stated that deals could be announced before the end of this year. He said that Senegal had a "unique" opportunity to establish itself as a mining jurisdiction of choice, as investors continue to direct capital to stable West African nations. He said that consistency in mining regulations, taxation, and permitting will be key to attracting long term investment. Maxwell Akalaare Adombila, Robbie Corey Boulet and Susan Fenton edited the report.
-
RKI: Heatwave in Germany linked to over 5,000 deaths
The Robert Koch Institute for Public Health (RKI) reported on Thursday that Germany had recorded approximately 5,120 deaths attributed to heat so far this summer. Most of these occurred in late June, when the weekly average temperature was well above 20 degrees Celsius. The RKI reported that the majority of deaths - 4,270 people - occurred among those aged 75 or older. Women died more than men, mostly because they are a larger proportion of very old people. German data are part of a grim story across Europe. In a Thursday bulletin, the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service stated that Western Europe experienced its hottest ever June with an average of 20.74°. The national authorities in France, Belgium, Spain, and the Netherlands have reported that more than 4,700 deaths occurred during the heatwave of June 20-28. According to RKI, Germany's highest heat-related death rates in the last decade occurred in 2018 and 2019 with 8,400 and 6900 deaths respectively. PRESSURE ON GOVERNMENT MOUNTS Katharina Droege of Germany's Greens Party, said during a debate in parliament that 120 people died alone during the heatwave weekend from June 27-28 - four more than usual. Droege accused Friedrich Merz, the Chancellor, of not commenting on the heatwave despite the increasing death toll, and the ongoing efforts of emergency services. She also accused his government to water down climate protection laws. Greens criticise the draft budget of the government for 2027. They are particularly critical that billions were taken from climate protection to fill budget gaps. The budget draft does not specify the exact 'cuts' that will be made to the Climate and Transformation Fund. In March, Germany announced plans to reduce its dependency on volatile fossil fuels and help meet the 2030 climate goals. Eight?billion euro will be made available to finance measures like expanding wind power capacity or boosting EV sales. Europe's largest economy wants to reduce greenhouse gas emissions at least by 65% from 1990 levels and be climate neutral by 2045. Currently, the reduction has been only 48% and experts believe that existing policies are not sufficient.
-
Copper prices rise on hopes of a Gulf deescalation and softer dollars
The dollar dropped after its recent surge, and copper rebounded as the market hoped that hostilities would be de-escalated in the Gulf. As of 0920 GMT, the benchmark three-month copper price?on London Metal Exchange?was?up 2.1% to $13,437 per metric ton. Metal prices fell 1.5% Wednesday after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that the Gulf Conflict was over. Trump said that Tehran "wants to make a deal" so badly and that he didn't expect a full-blown war even though the two countries were exchanging attacks. Tom Price, Panmure Liberum's analyst, said that the bounce could only be attributed to Trump making his claim. Who knows if it is true, but the market will always buy any sort of pitch for peace by Trump. If you are into short-term trading then this is a great opportunity. Copper stocks in LME warehouses The lowest level since March 9 was 307750 tons. But the cash LME contract still traded at a $68 per ton discount to the forward three-month contract On Wednesday, the metal market was not a priority. Cash?aluminium contracts were meanwhile commanding an a little premium After 13 days of higher prices for forwards, the price of the contract has fallen to $3.75. Aluminum climbed 1.2% to $3,169 per ton after dropping?below the pre-war level? at the end of last week. LME aluminium stocks The lowest level since September 2022 is 289,225 tonnes. Industrial metals ?prices were higher across the board, spurred by a dip ?in the dollar, making greenback-denominated metals more affordable for holders of other currencies, and concerns over inflation due ?to higher fuel prices. Zinc rose 2.5% to $3,605.50 - its highest level since June 22, while nickel climbed 1.4% to $15,565, tin increased 2.2% to $53,175, and lead grew 0.4% to $ 1,898.50. (Reporting and additional reporting by Solomon Cefai, Singapore; Editing Ronojojo Mazumdar and Leroy Leo).
-
Europe steadies after fresh Middle East hostilities
The global?share, bond and oil markets stabilized on Thursday following the week's resumption of Middle East hostilities. Oil prices fell - for only the second time within six days - after the United States launched new overnight strikes against Iran to, they said, keep the Strait of Hormuz available to shipping. Donald Trump, who had warned that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran was "over", also quelled some of the more extreme fears, saying that, despite its breakdown, he didn't expect to see a return to full-blown war. Brent crude futures fell back below $77 per barrel in early London trade following a 9% increase in the last?days which briefly had them above $80. The pressure on borrowing costs around the world also eased. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Yields stabilized at 4.56%, after a rise of 10 basis points since Monday. Germany's Bund Yields in Europe fell 2 basis points to 3.16%. In Asia, however, Japan's 10-year bond yields reached a peak of 2.9% for the first time since 1996. Meanwhile, Australia's 10 year government bond yields hit a monthly high of 4.933%. Max Kettner, HSBC's Multi-Asset Strategy Chief, said that the bond markets were highly sensitive to Middle East tensions because of the possible implications for inflation and interest rates globally. He said that the market rates are really following the oil prices. "That was evident over the past few days." VOLATILITY OF TECHNOLOGY European shares moved modestly higher on the back of a rebound in tech and AI stocks following a couple of stumbling weeks for this high-flying industry. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index was up nearly half a percentage with tech stocks rising 1.3%, as Siltronic soared by more than 10%. The global sentiment was also boosted by a report that China may allow limited access to AI leader Nvidia’s H200 chip and indications that SK Hynix’s $28 billion U.S. IPO was more than 7 times oversubscribed. The South Korean chipmaker's offering, which will finance the construction of new factories to meet the surging demand for?AI chips, is expected to be the second largest share sale in the world after SpaceX SPCX.O's record-breaking $85.7 Billion IPO last week. Kettner, from HSBC, said that the "realised volatility" of South Korea's KOSPI was currently 75%. Comparatively, a 7 to 10 year?U.S. Treasury exchange-traded funds have historically had a volatility of about 3%. Imagine yourself as an institutional investor. Who could really purchase a class of assets with a 75% realized volatility? Kettner stated. HSBC has "underweighted" emerging market stocks following this week's surge in important markets such as Korea. MUTTED CURRENCY Markets Wall Street futures rose 0.2% to 0.6% ahead of the later resumption in trading. The currency markets were a bit muted. In the meantime, the dollar barely moved, the yen was stuck near a low of 40 years, and the euro and other European currencies were also not much changed. The first FOMC minutes under the new Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh on Wednesday, showed that there were growing concerns over inflation. According to CME FedWatch, the implied probability of a Fed rate hike this year has increased to about 87%. As oil prices fell, gold rose 0.8% to $4109 an ounce. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said that traders are watching to see how Middle East tensions will develop. He said that oil prices are currently held back by the possibility of a de-escalatory move.
-
Singapore's oil product stocks hover around 40 million barrels
Government data released on Thursday shows that oil product inventories in Singapore, Asia’s main trading hub, have barely changed from week to week. This is because declines in light distillates and residual fuels offset gains in middle distillates. Enterprise Singapore data shows that total onshore oil product stocks were hovering at 40.33 million barrels for the week ending July 8 compared to 40.45 millions barrels last week. Markets are anticipating an increase in inventories if exports to regions like Northeast Asia continue to rise, after a recovery of refining operations these past two months. China's outflows will also increase after Beijing lifted its restrictions on refined fuels exports until the end of July. A certain amount of uncertainty remains, however, regarding Middle East supplies due to the return of conflict in that region. MIDDLE DISTRILLATES BOUNCE BACKWARD Diesel and jet fuel inventories rose from?last weekend to a little more than one-month's high of 8,9 million barrels despite increased net exports. The majority of the imports came from India and the Middle East. Malaysia and Indonesia were the regional contributors. Exports increased by?more that 50%, but outflows into Australia were absent. The east-west spread has reached more than $100 per ton discount, and traders expect lower diesel swing barrels to be shipped to Singapore in July. LIGHT DISTILLATES RESIDUAL FUELS SLIPP FURTHER The residual fuel stockpiles fell to their lowest level in three weeks, falling 2.4% on a weekly basis to 19,18 million barrels (3.02 millions tons). The total fuel oil exports out of Singapore's onshore tanks rose 61.2% in a week to exceed 265,000 tons. Hong Kong, Vietnam, and China were key markets. The total imports of fuel oil also increased, increasing by 41.3%, to more than 907,000 tonnes during the same period. The arbitrage supply was replenished more than the week before, with Brazil & Nigeria as the leading origins of?imports. Singapore has also seen a surge in the import of fuel oil from Saudi Arabia. The total was 130,000 tonnes?in a single week. This is the highest amount since mid-March. The inventories of light distillate, which includes naphtha, gasoline and other products, have fallen to a new low in three weeks, falling to 12.245 millions barrels. This is because net gasoline exports?outpaced the imports. Strong outbound flows into regional markets like Malaysia, Indonesia, and Australia also drained stocks. The total gasoline exports in the past week were approximately 750,000 metric tonnes (6.34 millions barrels), far exceeding imports, which were roughly 179,000 tons. Malaysia took nearly 274,000 tons of it, Indonesia around?262,000, and Australia was at 63,000. The Naphtha inventories increased, as imports totaling about 219,000 tonnes (1.97 millions barrels) exceeded the exports by only a few thousand tons. Saudi Arabian imports were seen for the first since supplies had been dwindled by the war. Russian supplies amounted to 30,000 tonnes.
-
HSBC reduces its gold price forecasts for 2026-2027 on the basis of a hawkish Fed.
HSBC reduced its average gold price predictions for 2026 - and 2027, citing a 'hawkish shift' in U.S. monetary expectations as well as a'stronger dollar. The bank has lowered its forecast for 2026 gold prices to $4,560 from $4,864 per ounce and for 2027 to $4,925, from $5,000. The bank said that gold prices could fluctuate between $3,800 to $4,700 in 2026, and then end the year at $4.750. Its 2027 forecast was $5,025. As of 0730 GMT spot gold was trading at $4,100, down more than 20% on the record $5594.82 set on January 29. The?Middle East Conflict stoked inflation concerns and led to a more hawkish shift by the Federal Reserve. HSBC stated that "changing perceptions of U.S. monetary policies?and their impact on the dollar?are among the main reasons for further gold liquidation, and the price declines." HSBC stated that central bank purchases have slowed down after driving gold's price rally in recent years. However, long-term diversification can still support prices. It added that the heavy outflows of exchange-traded funds seen in the first part may partially reverse in the second. HSBC stated that despite the reductions in forecasts, downside?risks may be?limited, as the market has already adjusted to a stronger dollar and higher rate environment. The bank claimed that many of the factors which supported gold prices before the Middle East conflict remained unchanged, such as concerns about fiscal deficits, economic insecurity and sovereign debt burdens. HSBC stated that the conflict "still has the power to?send?gold lower, but we don't believe Iran-related decreases alone would be lasting." (Reporting by Pablo Sinha in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
Syria gains voting rights in the chemical weapons watchdog
On Thursday, member states returned Syria's voting right to the global chemical weapons watchdog after a "significant change in circumstances", as they called it, since the fall of Assad.
Syria was stripped of its rights by the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) in 2021 after it was found that its forces had repeatedly used poisonous gas during the civil conflict.
This was largely symbolic but sent a message to Syria that any breach of the 1997 Chemical Weapons Convention prohibiting the use of chemical weapons on the battlefield would not be tolerated.
The OPCW stated that "after the fall of the Assad regime the new Syrian authorities have committed to fulfilling Syria’s obligations under Convention?and taken concrete steps since then."
Syria has pledged to work with the international community to get rid of its legacy weapons of massive destruction, which pose a threat to proliferation.
In May, a Syrian official said that the country’s transitional leadership found remnants of the clandestine chemical weapons?program of the former president Bashar al-Assad. These included raw materials and munitions used in deadly gas attacks carried out during the country’s?civil conflict.
The OPCW Special Investigation & Identification Team and the United Nations have conducted repeated investigations that concluded that Syrian government forces had used the nerve agents sarin and chlorine barrel?bombs during attacks that killed or injured thousands of people.
Syria and its military allies Russia denied using chemical weapons at the time.
On Thursday, the OPCW executive council said that it would continue to monitor Syria and make decisions to eliminate any remaining chemical weapons left over from the previous regime. (Reporting and editing by William Maclean, Bart Meijer)
(source: Reuters)