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India's markets receive a tariff reduction but no buy yet

Investors say that the U.S. India trade deal will likely be enough to stop foreign stock selling. However, they insist that earnings growth and fundamentals must improve before sustained?buying can occur.

The long-awaited agreement sparked an increase in the stock markets and rupee's strongest rally in seven year on?Tuesday as it?signalled improved diplomatic and trade relationships with the U.S.

This was only one of many factors that hung over the currency and stock market, which has underperformed by a large margin regional and global counterparts since the start of last year, and seen the foreign allocations shrink to a 2-decade-low.

Indian stocks are at record highs, but they're vulnerable to disruption by artificial intelligence. And, with no companies in this sector, the race to AI has left them behind.

The details of the deal are also sparse even though they allow companies to start planning capital expenditure.

Michael Bourke, M&G Investments' head of global emerging market equities, said: "I am not convinced that tariffs have an immediate effect, but they certainly affect sentiment. That's the best way to look at it."

Do you see a sudden increase in earnings just because tariffs have been lowered? He said, "I'm not sure that's the line I'd draw."

Naomi Waistell is a fund manager at Carmignac's emerging equities group, which manages assets worth $48.5 billion. She said that the deal was significant for markets but more for sentiment and valuation than for near-term earnings?uplift.

The deal doesn't resolve recent issues regarding Indian equities, such as still-elevated prices... lower forward earnings growth compared to EM peers and a shortage of globally scalable AI beneficiary businesses.

Since the beginning of 2025, foreign investors have pulled out roughly $23 billion from Indian stocks. However, they invested $580 million in Indian stocks on Tuesday.

Vikas Jain of Bank of America's Mumbai branch, who is the head of India fixed income trading, currencies, and commodities, says that foreign investment should see a revival in the near future.

The underweight investors will immediately return to neutral. The government's policies and growth will determine whether or not investors go overweight.

RUPEE RELIEF

Analysts and traders believe that the deal will also provide relief to India's currency, which has been battered.

The rupee was the worst performing Asian currencies in the last 12 months. It required the central bank to constantly defend it as it fell from near 88 dollars per dollar at the time the tariffs were implemented to a low record of almost 92 dollars in January.

The traders believe that the increased appetite of firms to hedge against rupee weakness, and the central banks' desire to increase FX reserves could be factors that prevent a sustained rally in the currency.

Tariffs on Indian products had contributed to the depreciation of INR. This trade deal breaks the loop, encouraging foreign investors to assess Indian stocks more objectively.

India's benchmark stock index rose a respectable 10 percent in the last 12 months, but pales in comparison with South Korea's Kospi which soared 118% and Taiwan's stocks that gained 42% in the same time period.

On Wednesday, the risks of not having obvious AI winners were also at play. Indian IT stocks fell over 6% as AI firm 'Anthropic' launched tools for workplace productivity, raising fears of disruption in the entire sector.

Some investors are still bullish about India, and consider it a "compelling" trade. Sam Konrad is the investment manager at Jupiter Asset Management for Asian Equities. He was underweight India throughout most of 2025, but he has increased his fund's investments in recent weeks.

Bourke, of M&G, has been a recent buyer of Indian financials. However, he remains underweight.

It may take a little longer to make larger allocations. The profit growth of Indian companies has been in the high single digits over six consecutive quarters. This is well below the 15-25% growth that was recorded between 2020-21 to 2023-24.

Goldman Sachs has raised its earnings per share forecasts for Indian stocks to 16% this year from 15%. They are expecting a return of 12% dollars from Indian stocks in the next year, compared to 20% for Chinese stocks.

(source: Reuters)