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Research provider: Index funds could double sales of agricultural futures in the face of recession fears

Research provider: Index funds could double sales of agricultural futures in the face of recession fears

Last week, index funds, which are the largest participants on the commodities market, sold agricultural futures worth over $7 billion. This could be doubled due to fears of recession and lower inflation expectations.

Peak Trading Research, a provider of commodities markets research, said that on Tuesday, funds, which are investment vehicles for endowments, foundations, and sovereign wealth funds could sell between 200,000 and 300,000 agricultural commodity futures contracts.

It said that they had already sold 156,000 contracts in the last week. This was a record for this period and equated to $7.3 billion worth of contracts.

In a recent note, Dave Whitcomb said that index fund investors were very concerned about the economy's softening and their lower inflation expectations. They could be selling a lot of agriculture futures.

He said that this would cause the prices of agricultural futures to fall significantly.

Whitcomb stated that index funds typically invest in agricultural futures to hedge against inflation and as a store of value. Their positions are usually closely tied to U.S. expectations for inflation.

The derivatives market is the largest trading place for agricultural commodities. Soybeans and corn are the most commonly traded. Sugar, beef, sugar, coffee, and cattle are also popular.

Whitcomb stated that the inflation data due to be released Wednesday, and the oil prices which are highly correlated to inflation pressures will be the catalysts for index funds to sell agricultural commodities futures in large quantities. (Reporting and Editing by Marguerita Chôy)

(source: Reuters)