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IEA sees 2025 oil market in supply surplus

The world's oil supply will go beyond demand in 2025 even if OPEC+ cuts remain in location, the International Energy Company (IEA) stated in its monthly oil market report on Thursday, as increasing production outside the manufacturer group is met by slow international need development.

Our present balances suggest that even if the OPEC+ cuts stay in place, international supply surpasses need by more than 1 million bpd next year, the IEA said.

The Paris-based agency left its 2025 oil need development projection little-changed on the month, expecting oil need to rise by 990,000 bpd next year.

It on the other hand expects non-OPEC+ supply development to increase by 1.5 million bpd next year, driven by higher output from the United States, Canada, Guyana and Argentina.

In its own monthly oil report on Tuesday, OPEC cut its worldwide oil need growth forecast this year and next, its fourth successive month-to-month downward modification, on weak point in China, India and other regions.

International demand growth listed below 1 million bpd this year follows near to 2 million bpd of development in 2023, the IEA said.

The sub-1 million bpd growth speed for both years shows below-par worldwide financial conditions with the post-pandemic release of suppressed demand now complete, it said.

Waning Chinese need continues to hit international oil need development, with 2024 annual oil need growth set to reach just 140,000 bpd, the IEA said, a tenth of the 1.4 million bpd demand growth of 2023.

The fast development of cleaner energy innovations is also increasingly displacing oil, the company said in its November report. The IEA made a small upward adjustment to its 2024 oil need development projection, up by 60,000 bpd on the month to 920,000 bpd, on higher-than-expected gasoil demand in OECD countries in the third quarter.

(source: Reuters)