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IEA cuts 2024 oil demand growth forecast on China slowdown

The International Energy Company (IEA) has actually cut its 2024 oil demand growth anticipated by 70,000 barrels daily (bpd), or about 7.2%, to 900,000 bpd, it said in its month-to-month oil market report on Thursday,

The Paris-based firm cited a downturn in Chinese demand as the primary driver of weaker worldwide need growth. It now anticipates Chinese demand to grow by just 180,000 bpd in 2024 as a wider macroeconomic slowdown coincides with greater uptake of electrical vehicles.

With the steam apparently lacking Chinese oil need growth, and just modest increases or declines in the majority of other nations, current patterns strengthen our expectation that international demand will plateau by the end of this years, the IEA said.

Oil costs pared early gains after release of the report.

There is a wide split in 2024 demand development forecasts owing to differences over China and the pace of the world's shift to cleaner fuels. The Company of the Petroleum Exporting Nations (OPEC) likewise cut its 2024 projection this week, however its view stays far higher than the IEA's.

OPEC tasks oil need development at 2.03 million bpd in 2024 and 1.74 million bpd in 2025, but back-to-back cuts to its projections also underline the difficulties the manufacturer group is dealing with in stabilizing the market.

The IEA left its 2025 need development projection unchanged at about 950,000 bpd but recommended that the international oil market might be oversupplied next year if the wider OPEC+ manufacturer group profits with its plan to loosen up voluntary output cuts.

Increasing worldwide oil supply is being driven by greater non-OPEC output, the IEA said, with the agency forecasting non-OPEC supply development at 1.5 million bpd for this year and next, with higher production from the United States, Guyana, Canada and Brazil.

With non-OPEC+ supply increasing faster than total need--. disallowing a prolonged stand-off in Libya-- OPEC+ might be staring at. a considerable surplus, the IEA stated.

(source: Reuters)