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OPEC, IEA at the majority of divided on oil demand considering that at least 2008

Producer group OPEC and the International Energy Agency, the world's most carefully seen forecasters of oil demand development, are further apart than they have actually been for a minimum of 16 years in their views on fuel usage, according to research study.

The gap in between the IEA, which represents industrialised nations, and the Company of the Petroleum Exporting Countries indicates the 2 are sending divergent signals to traders and investors on oil market strength in 2024 and, for the longer term, about the speed of the world's transition to cleaner fuels.

In February this year, the IEA predicted demand will increase by 1.22 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, while in its February report OPEC anticipated 2.25 million bpd. The distinction has to do with 1% of world need.

The IEA has a very strong perception that the energy transition will move ahead at a much faster speed, Neil Atkinson, a previous head of the IEA's Oil Markets Department, said.

Both firms have boxed themselves in with a position, which is why they have this massive gulf in demand projections.

To set the distinction in context, evaluated the modifications each company has actually made to its oil need projections from 2008 to 2023, and the very first 2 months of this year.

The duration was picked to offer a long adequate time series to draw conclusions and since it consisted of extreme volatility in oil demand, starting with the 2008 financial crisis and ending with the 2020 pandemic and subsequent need recovery.

International oil futures struck an all-time high of almost $ 150 a barrel in July 2008, compared to roughly $80 now.

' analysis of 16 years of IEA and OPEC monthly reports discovered the 1.03 million bpd space in February was the most significant in per-barrel terms in that period.

The IEA, inquired about the gap between the two companies' 2024 projections and whether it saw its projections as more accurate than OPEC's, said this year's demand slowdown totaled up to a go back to the growth trends seen before the pandemic, and the slowdown is already visible in oil deliveries information.

We anticipate this to continue this year, with mobility signs suggesting that roadway and air traffic are stabilising, the IEA said, including it could not talk about other organisations' projections.

OPEC, also asked to talk about the gap and whether it saw its projections as more accurate, stated its 2023 need development projection of 2.5 million bpd was only somewhat below its preliminary number given up July 2022.

We have actually been extremely steady with our 2023 oil need projection. Numerous other forecasters started low and then constantly modified up their 2023 forecast, OPEC's Vienna secretariat said, without discussing 2024.

IEA GREEN SHIFT

OPEC and the IEA likewise disagree over the medium term. The IEA expects oil demand to peak by 2030 as the world switches to cleaner fuels. OPEC dismisses that view.

OPEC on Monday restated its projection out to 2045 does not see a peak, mentioning anticipated growth outside industrialised Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Advancement countries and pushback on some preliminary net-zero policies.

The IEA, formed 50 years back as the industrialised world's. energy guard dog has moved its focus on oil and gas supply. security to promoting renewables and climate action. For some. OPEC members, this undermines its function as an unbiased. authority.

They have moved from being a forecaster and assessor of the. market to one practising political advocacy, Saudi Arabia's. Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said last September.

IEA members are mainly big energy customers and the. federal governments of much of them have chosen to accelerate the. development of renewable energy to accelerate the shift toward a. low-carbon economy.

They are aiming to their energy watchdog to show them how. to arrive, experts state. OPEC members by contrast, which. depend on fossil fuel revenue, face potentially devastating. financial repercussions from a quick transition far from oil.

The analysis found the 2 bodies' projections have connected. statistically in terms of forecast accuracy, making it difficult to. say which will be best based upon the performance history.

Please click TABLE to see the IEA and OPEC projections. used.

likewise gathered estimates from 26 analysts at banks. and research firms of 2024 demand growth. The mean of these. estimates is 1.3 million bpd, or closer to the IEA view.

Of 20 analyst actions on the question of whether need. will peak by 2030, 12 analysts said no, suggesting OPEC is seen. as more likely to be best on this point.

UPWARD REVISIONS

Like all financial forecasts, oil need forecasts are. subject to modification and impacted by numerous events that are. impossible to visualize.

Information on physical oil usage takes time to emerge, contributing to the. difficulty.

According to the IEA, demand growth will cut in half in 2024. Partially as a result of a thriving electric vehicle fleet. since January the firm had modified upwards the 2024 need. development forecast for 3 straight months.

Amrita Sen, creator of Energy Aspects, stated that the IEA. tended to modify its demand upwards, as did Atkinson.

I 'd say the IEA's oil need projections keep getting revised. greater, Sen said. Peak oil need will likely be higher than. the IEA projections.

The analysis discovered that over 2008-2023 the IEA. under-estimated total need in its preliminary projection 56% of the. time compared to 50% of the time by OPEC - not a big. difference.

Atkinson said that although both firms have anticipated. need developments properly, like Sen of Energy Aspects he. thought OPEC was more likely to be ideal on the issue of need. peaking this years.

At different times in history, the IEA and OPEC have both. called it quite well, he said. I think the IEA are premature. in calling for a demand peak by 2030 due to growth in establishing. nations.

(source: Reuters)