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Crews search for missing dozens after Texas floods
On Wednesday, search teams continued to sift through debris in Texas Hill Country as hopes for finding more survivors dimmed. This was five days after flash flooding ravaged the area, killing at least 100 people, many of them children. According to the figures released by Texas Governor Greg Abbott, as of Tuesday evening there were still more than 170 missing people. Since Friday, no one has been found alive. The majority of fatalities and missing persons were in Kerr County. Kerrville, the county seat was devastated by torrential rains that flooded the area on Friday morning, July 4. This caused the Guadalupe River's level to reach nearly 30 feet within a few hours. At a press briefing on Wednesday, Kerr County sheriff Larry Leitha informed reporters that the death toll was 95 in Kerr, including 30 children. This figure includes at the very least 27 girls and their counselors who attend Camp Mystic on the Guadalupe, a Christian summer retreat for girls. Authorities warned that the death count will continue to rise as floodwaters receded and search teams discovered more victims. The public has been questioned for days about whether officials could have warned people of flood-prone areas earlier. Reporting by Jane Ross and Joseph Ax, both in Kerrville; editing by Frank McGurty
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Sources say that the Dangote refinery in Nigeria plans to build 1.6 million barrels of fuel storage tanks for Namibia.
MacDonald Dzirutwe Two sources confirmed on Wednesday that the refinery in Nigeria, Dangote Petroleum, will build storage tanks in Namibia for at least 1.6 millions barrels of gasoline or diesel to be supplied to southern Africa. This move demonstrates the refinery’s ambition to dominate the fuel supply market in Africa, and beyond. It could reshape energy trade flows and increase access to refined products in southern African countries. Aliko Dangote is Africa's richest person. He built a $20 billion refinery that produces 650,000 barrels of oil per day. It started operating last year. Since then, it has increased production and sought new markets. Sources who were informed of the development said that the storage tanks will be used to provide gasoline and diesel to Botswana Namibia Zambia and Zimbabwe. Sources said that Dangote also considered supplying fuel to the southern Democratic Republic of Congo. A Dangote representative did not respond to an inquiry for comment. The cost of the project was not immediately known, but a second source confirmed that construction on the tanks in Walvis Bay would soon begin. An official from the Namibia Ports Authority confirmed the plans, and stated that the tanks will be located in the Walvis Bay Harbour. Last month, a source reported that the first gasoline sold by the refinery outside of West Africa was headed to Asia. The Dangote Refinery claims that at full capacity the plant will produce enough fuel to meet the demand in Nigeria. Nigeria has drastically reduced its imports of refined fuels and the remainder is exported. MacDonald Dzirutwe, Nyasha Nyaungwa and Bill Berkrot contributed to this report.
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EIA: US crude stocks rise as gasoline demand increases after July 4 drop
The U.S. crude stockpiles unexpectedly rose last week. Meanwhile, gasoline inventories declined on the back of a strong demand for fuel ahead of the Fourth of July weekend. The EIA reported that crude inventories increased by 7.1m barrels, to 426m barrels for the week ending July 4. This was compared to analysts' polled expectations of a draw of 2.1m barrels. The rise included a weekly adjustment of 1.8 million barrels a day (bpd). The EIA uses the adjustment figure to balance its books by looking at "unaccounted crude oil." "Overall demand has jumped up again, so the market views the increase in crude supply as a one-off event," said Phil Flynn an analyst at Price Futures Group. The EIA reported that gasoline stocks dropped by 2.7 millions barrels to 229.5million barrels during the week, which is nearly twice the expected 1.5 million barrel draw. Last week, gasoline demand increased 6% to 9,2 million bpd. Flynn said, "If you look at the gasoline demand figures, they are back to a respectable level." Crude futures have recovered some of their losses following the EIA data indicating strong fuel demand. Brent crude futures fell 19 cents or 0.3% to $69.96 per barrel at 10:47 am ET. ET (1447 GMT), whereas U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell 26 cents or 0.4% to $68.07 per barrel. The EIA reported that crude stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma's delivery hub for WTI increased by 464,000 barrels. Data showed that distillate stocks, which includes diesel and heating oil fell by 825,000 barges in the past week, as opposed to expectations of a drop of 300,000 barrels. The refinery crude run, on the other hand, dropped by 99,000 bpd and refinery utilization rates decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 94.7%. The EIA reported that net U.S. crude exports dropped by 1,36 million barrels per day. Reporting by Arathy S. Somasekhar, Houston. Editing by Marguerita C. Choy
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Coffee maker Lavazza wants to delay the EU deforestation legislation
Lavazza, a coffee maker, called on Wednesday for a delay of one year in the implementation of EU's deforestation laws. The company said that its implementation would harm producers in Africa and Central America as well as drive up prices. Companies importing products like soya, beef, cacao, coffee and other related goods must prove that their supply chain does not contribute to deforestation. Otherwise, they will be fined. Giuseppe Lavazza, chairman of Lavazza, told reporters in London that he wanted the legislation to be delayed for an additional year, mainly for coffee. He said that the cocoa industry is better prepared than coffee because it has fewer countries producing it. The chairman of the committee said that the proposed law may be worse for the coffee market than tariffs. He added that countries like Ethiopia would find it difficult to comply with new rules because there is a lack clarity regarding land ownership. Lavazza echoed a similar message this month by Mondelez, the parent company of Cadbury. Nestle, the world's biggest packaged food company, wrote last week to the European Commission in support of deforestation regulations. Their letter, seen by's, stated that a delay would damage the EU's credibility. The letter was signed by Nestle, Ferrero, and Danone. Environmental groups are also opposed to efforts to delay or weaken legislation. Hannah Mowat is the campaign coordinator for Fern. She said: "Reopening the Law now would be catastrophic to the EU's business partner reputation and would send a terrible signal as we approach COP30, which will be held in Brazil." After criticism from the industry, the EU has already delayed its launch for a year, to December 2025. (Additional reporting by Kate Abnett and May Angel in London, Editing by Mark Potter.)
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TSX gains as investors evaluate tariff concerns
Investors are waiting for updates on trade and tariffs. The main Canadian stock index rose on Wednesday. After two consecutive days of decline, the S&P/TSX Index in Toronto rose 0.1% to 26,938.86 after a fall. The U.S. president Donald Trump announced on Tuesday steep tariffs on copper and threatened to impose levies against semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. This is a further extension of the trade war which has affected markets around the world. Trump has also extended the deadline for tariff agreements to August 1. Canadian government data revealed that Canadian firms have increased trade with allies including smaller markets in an effort to minimize the economic damage caused by U.S. Tariffs. Colin White, CEO of Verecan Capital Management and Portfolio Manager, said that the announcements about trade negotiations would continue to "cause movement in the market on a short-term basis." The information we'll receive this month about jobs will give us a good idea of what to expect in the coming months. Investors will be closely examining key Canadian job data due Friday to see how the economy is faring under tariff pressures. Healthcare shares gained 0.7%, while technology shares rose by 0.4%. H&R rose 4.7%, while real estate stocks gained 0.5%. The Globe and Mail reported asset manager Blackstone and U.S. Equity funds were in discussions to buy H&R's assets. Energy shares dropped 0.4% while mining shares remained flat. Copper prices dipped. Copper prices fell. EQB rose by 1.6% following the announcement that former finance director Chadwick W. Westlake would return as CEO. He had left the company just months earlier to become chief financial officer of software company OpenText. OpenText shares fell by 4.8%. Reporting by Twesha dikshit in Bengaluru and Sukriti gupta; editing by Shreya biswas
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Bank watchdogs say extreme weather conditions could lead to a 5% decline in the euro zone's GDP.
Heatwaves, wildfires and flooding could have the same impact on the euro zone's GDP as the global financial crises or COVID-19, according to a senior official at the European Central Bank. According to Livio Stracca, deputy director at the ECB, a series of severe weather events could lead to a near-term decline in the euro zone's growth of almost 5%. This is based on ECB's most extreme climate scenario, which was developed by ECB and 145 bank supervisors this year. The peak negative impact on the euro area's GDP is about 5%. This is the same magnitude as the global financial crises and just a bit less than COVID-19, said Stracca. He also chairs the Network for Greening the Financial System workstream on scenario analysis and design. The findings are based upon a set of new tools developed by the NGFS. This group of central banks and supervisors is working to address climate risk in the financial and economic sectors. These tools are designed to help companies and banks understand the impact of climate change on their business in the short-term by testing a number of climate-related scenarios. The group concluded that the euro zone's growth would be most adversely affected by "Disasters and Policy Stagnation", whereby heatwaves and droughts in 2026 are followed by a combination or floods and storms a year later in 2027. Another scenario suggests that if the euro zone follows through on its net-zero policies, which include its plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030, this could help mitigate losses. In a blog posted by the ECB, Stracca and Bundesbank member Sabine Mauderer stated that climate-related risks were an immediate concern to financial stability and economic development. The NGFS scenarios... show that a global coordinated net-zero initiative would safeguard the economic interests of the euro zone over the next five year." The NGFS already has a set of widely-used climate scenarios. But this is the very first time that they offer tools to assess short-term impacts and physical effects. Reporting by Virginia Furness Editing Mark Potter
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Gold falls to a one-week low, as the dollar increases; trade talks are in focus
The dollar gained strength on Wednesday, and investors watched developments in the trade negotiations between the United States with its trading partners. As of 9:23 AM ET (1323 GMT), spot gold was down by 0.1%, at $3,297.19 an ounce. It had earlier hit its lowest level since the 30th June. U.S. Gold Futures dropped 0.3% to $3.306,10. The U.S. Dollar Index hovered around a two week high, which made bullion less appealing for overseas buyers. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note remained near a three week high. David Meger is the director of metals at High Ridge Futures. He said: "In the short-term, I notice that the dollar has bounced off its recent lows, which has taken some wind out of gold's sails. From a long-term perspective, gold prices remain well supported." Trump has promised to deliver more tariff notices against unnamed nations. On the front of trade, the European Union announced that it is working towards a deal between the United States and the European Union by the end the month. Investors will also be watching the minutes from the Federal Reserve's most recent policy meeting at 2:00 PM ET (1800 GMT), for any clues on the central bank's rate trajectory. The minutes of the Fed's meeting on June 17-18 are expected to reveal a central bank divided and hesitant to cut rates amid uncertainty about the inflation impact Trump's tariff increases will have. Meger said: "We expect that those minutes will confirm the likelihood of the Fed not lowering interest rates at their July meeting, and at the earliest at their September meeting." Gold tends to do well when times are uncertain, but struggles when interest rates rise because it does not earn interest. Silver fell by 1% per ounce to $36.40, while platinum dropped 0.3% to 1,355.69, and palladium fell 1.5% to $1,000.44. (Reporting and editing by Louise Heavens in Bengaluru. Anushree mukherjee, Bengaluru)
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South Africa's currency and stock prices fall as lower commodity costs weigh
Investors focused on precious metals prices, which have fallen after U.S. president Trump's latest threats. Trump announced on Tuesday that he would impose 50% tariffs on imports of copper, in an effort to increase U.S. production. Copper is a critical metal for electric vehicles, military equipment, power grids, and many consumer products. At 1218 GMT the rand was trading at 17.8250 per dollar, down 0.2% from Tuesday's closing price. South Africa, a major producer and exporter of precious metals, and minerals, is closely watching developments in Washington, as will investors in other currencies linked to commodities. The prices of gold, platinum and palladium outside the U.S. dropped sharply on Wednesday. Roy Topol is the portfolio manager of Cratos Asset Management. He said that although South Africa produces relatively less copper, it has a minimal direct exposure. A potential U.S. tariff on copper would have a greater impact on emerging economies exporting commodities. Last week, the Johannesburg Stock Exchange Top-40 Index fell by 0.2% due in part to a fall in mining shares. Topol attributes the decline in shares of Anglo American and Glencore to their exposure to copper. Shares in gold mining companies Harmony Gold and Gold Fields fell 1%. The rand's already high risk profile is further exacerbated by the country's efforts to reach a deal with the United States in time for the extended deadline of 1 August, after which the country will face a 30% tariff on exports to the United States. Trump reiterated his threat on Tuesday to impose 10% tariffs on South Africa and the BRICS bloc. The yield on the benchmark government bond for 2035 in South Africa was unchanged at 9.9%, although it had increased by half a basis-point. (Reporting and editing by Tomasz Janovski and Alex Richardson; Sfundo parakozov)
OPEC, IEA at the majority of divided on oil demand considering that at least 2008
Producer group OPEC and the International Energy Agency, the world's most carefully seen forecasters of oil demand development, are further apart than they have actually been for a minimum of 16 years in their views on fuel usage, according to research study.
The gap in between the IEA, which represents industrialised nations, and the Company of the Petroleum Exporting Countries indicates the 2 are sending divergent signals to traders and investors on oil market strength in 2024 and, for the longer term, about the speed of the world's transition to cleaner fuels.
In February this year, the IEA predicted demand will increase by 1.22 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, while in its February report OPEC anticipated 2.25 million bpd. The distinction has to do with 1% of world need.
The IEA has a very strong perception that the energy transition will move ahead at a much faster speed, Neil Atkinson, a previous head of the IEA's Oil Markets Department, said.
Both firms have boxed themselves in with a position, which is why they have this massive gulf in demand projections.
To set the distinction in context, evaluated the modifications each company has actually made to its oil need projections from 2008 to 2023, and the very first 2 months of this year.
The duration was picked to offer a long adequate time series to draw conclusions and since it consisted of extreme volatility in oil demand, starting with the 2008 financial crisis and ending with the 2020 pandemic and subsequent need recovery.
International oil futures struck an all-time high of almost $ 150 a barrel in July 2008, compared to roughly $80 now.
' analysis of 16 years of IEA and OPEC monthly reports discovered the 1.03 million bpd space in February was the most significant in per-barrel terms in that period.
The IEA, inquired about the gap between the two companies' 2024 projections and whether it saw its projections as more accurate than OPEC's, said this year's demand slowdown totaled up to a go back to the growth trends seen before the pandemic, and the slowdown is already visible in oil deliveries information.
We anticipate this to continue this year, with mobility signs suggesting that roadway and air traffic are stabilising, the IEA said, including it could not talk about other organisations' projections.
OPEC, also asked to talk about the gap and whether it saw its projections as more accurate, stated its 2023 need development projection of 2.5 million bpd was only somewhat below its preliminary number given up July 2022.
We have actually been extremely steady with our 2023 oil need projection. Numerous other forecasters started low and then constantly modified up their 2023 forecast, OPEC's Vienna secretariat said, without discussing 2024.
IEA GREEN SHIFT
OPEC and the IEA likewise disagree over the medium term. The IEA expects oil demand to peak by 2030 as the world switches to cleaner fuels. OPEC dismisses that view.
OPEC on Monday restated its projection out to 2045 does not see a peak, mentioning anticipated growth outside industrialised Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Advancement countries and pushback on some preliminary net-zero policies.
The IEA, formed 50 years back as the industrialised world's. energy guard dog has moved its focus on oil and gas supply. security to promoting renewables and climate action. For some. OPEC members, this undermines its function as an unbiased. authority.
They have moved from being a forecaster and assessor of the. market to one practising political advocacy, Saudi Arabia's. Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said last September.
IEA members are mainly big energy customers and the. federal governments of much of them have chosen to accelerate the. development of renewable energy to accelerate the shift toward a. low-carbon economy.
They are aiming to their energy watchdog to show them how. to arrive, experts state. OPEC members by contrast, which. depend on fossil fuel revenue, face potentially devastating. financial repercussions from a quick transition far from oil.
The analysis found the 2 bodies' projections have connected. statistically in terms of forecast accuracy, making it difficult to. say which will be best based upon the performance history.
Please click TABLE to see the IEA and OPEC projections. used.
likewise gathered estimates from 26 analysts at banks. and research firms of 2024 demand growth. The mean of these. estimates is 1.3 million bpd, or closer to the IEA view.
Of 20 analyst actions on the question of whether need. will peak by 2030, 12 analysts said no, suggesting OPEC is seen. as more likely to be best on this point.
UPWARD REVISIONS
Like all financial forecasts, oil need forecasts are. subject to modification and impacted by numerous events that are. impossible to visualize.
Information on physical oil usage takes time to emerge, contributing to the. difficulty.
According to the IEA, demand growth will cut in half in 2024. Partially as a result of a thriving electric vehicle fleet. since January the firm had modified upwards the 2024 need. development forecast for 3 straight months.
Amrita Sen, creator of Energy Aspects, stated that the IEA. tended to modify its demand upwards, as did Atkinson.
I 'd say the IEA's oil need projections keep getting revised. greater, Sen said. Peak oil need will likely be higher than. the IEA projections.
The analysis discovered that over 2008-2023 the IEA. under-estimated total need in its preliminary projection 56% of the. time compared to 50% of the time by OPEC - not a big. difference.
Atkinson said that although both firms have anticipated. need developments properly, like Sen of Energy Aspects he. thought OPEC was more likely to be ideal on the issue of need. peaking this years.
At different times in history, the IEA and OPEC have both. called it quite well, he said. I think the IEA are premature. in calling for a demand peak by 2030 due to growth in establishing. nations.
(source: Reuters)