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Oil funds temper bearishness after OPEC+ reassurance: Kemp

Portfolio financiers last week repurchased a few of the petroleum they had sold the week before after Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ allies stressed any future production boosts would be contingent on market conditions.

Hedge funds and other cash managers purchased the equivalent of 80 million barrels in the 6 crucial petroleum futures and alternatives contracts over the seven days ending on June 11.

Purchases reversed about 40% of the 194 million barrels sold the week before after OPEC+ stunned financiers by announcing plans to begin increasing production from the start of October.

In the most current week, the purchasing wave was led by crude ( +68 million barrels), spread in between NYMEX and ICE WTI (+42. million) and Brent (+26 million), reversing a few of the heavy. sales a week earlier.

There was some considerable purchasing in European gas oil (+17. million barrels) but no change in U.S. fuel and even more. sales in U.S. diesel (-5 million).

Chartbook: Oil and gas positions

Post-meeting rundowns to chosen media and experts. resolved fears OPEC+ would flood the market with additional barrels. from the fourth quarter of 2024.

The outcome was that costs rebounded to pre-meeting levels. while positions were somewhat however not totally restored.

Even after the round-trip, however, fund positions stay. extremely bearish for all parts of the petroleum complex with the. partial exception of European gas oil.

The combined position across all six contracts of 288. million barrels remained in just the 6th percentile for all weeks. considering that 2013. Bullish long positions outnumbered bearish short. ones by a ratio of just 1.96:1 (11th percentile).

Positions across the complex were consistently bearish (25-49th. percentiles) or really bearish (24th percentile and below) revealing. extremely little confidence among investors rates will increase later. this year.

The huge overhang of extra capability held by OPEC+. members in addition to continued production development from the United. States, Canada, Brazil and Guyana are anticipated to limit price. increases in crude.

On the fuel side, inventories of both fuel and diesel. have actually been increasing relative to the seasonal trend in the United. States, and consumption growth for fuels remains lukewarm throughout. The United States And Canada, Europe and China.

U.S. NATURAL GAS

Investors became more bullish about the outlook for gas. rates in the United States despite the restricted development made so. far in diminishing the enormous stocks rollovered from the. mild winter of 2023/24.

Hedge funds and other cash managers bought the. equivalent of 332 billion cubic feet (bcf) in the 2 significant. futures and options agreements connected to rates at Henry Center in. Louisiana over the 7 days ending on June 11.

Fund supervisors have been net buyers in 6 of the last. eight weeks purchasing a total of 1,607 bcf because April 16,. according to records submitted with the U.S. Product Futures. Trading Commission.

Funds have actually raised their position to a net long of 1,123 bcf,. in the 59th percentile for all weeks since 2010, from a web. short position of 483 bcf on April 16, in just the 19th. percentile.

As an outcome, the hedge fund community had actually built one of the most. bullish position in gas for more than a year because April 2023.

Increased bullishness has come even though inventories. remain well above normal for the time of year and reveal just. limited if any normalisation.

Stocks were 605 bcf (+26% or +1.47 standard deviations). above the prior ten-year seasonal average on June 7. The surplus. had actually narrowed just slightly from 662 bcf (+40% or +1.47 standard. variances) on March 15.

But investors are wagering drilling and production cuts. revealed in February will ultimately eliminate the surplus,. with summertime heatwaves, increased gas-fired generation, and. much faster LNG exports accelerating the process.

Associated columns:

- U.S. refining margins plunge as fuel stocks climb (June 13,. 2024)

- OPEC? surprise set off record hedge fund oil sales( June. 10, 2024)

- OPEC? switches strategy to safeguard market share (June 4,. 2024)

John Kemp is a market expert. The views expressed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.

(source: Reuters)