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Trans Mountain growth might not offer long-term rate relief to Canada's flourishing oil output

Canadian oil manufacturers anticipate the discount on their crude to diminish significantly when the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion (TMX) begins this year, but the relief might be shortlived as surging supply looks set to surpass the nation's pipeline capacity in just a couple of years.

TMX will deliver an extra 590,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude, trebling existing capacity to Canada's Pacific Coast once the C$ 30.9 billion ($ 22.8 billion) expansion is finally total. The Canadian government-owned task has actually struck technical concerns on its final leg of building, however is still targeting a 2nd quarter in-service date.

For much of the last years, oil companies in the world's. No. 4 producing country have actually been forced to sell their barrels. at a deep discount to international rates due to absence of pipeline. capacity to export crude.

When TMX is running, Canadian heavy crude. differentials need to narrow to around $10-$ 12 a barrel under. U.S. benchmark crude from more than $19 a barrel currently, BMO. analyst Ben Pham said in a note to clients last week.

He approximated the growth would lift Canada's overall. takeaway capacity to 5.2 million bpd, leaving 220,000 bpd of. unused area on pipelines.

Still, oil sands production is rising so quickly that some. market players believe Canada might once again lack pipeline. space in less than 2 years, said RBN Energy expert Martin. King.

Initially it was thought TMX would offer us a four- or. five-year window, King said. It now appears like that window of. extra capability may in fact be a lot smaller.

Canadian producers could amount to 500,000 bpd of supply. this year and next year alone, Colin Gruending, executive vice. president of liquids pipelines at midstream company Enbridge Inc. , approximated on an incomes call this month.

The prospect for more bottlenecks would likely broaden the. discount rate once again, and could deter business from longer-term. investments in growing Canada's production.

For existing pipeline operators, the rising production and. strong need for capability is great news. Enbridge stated it may. continue rationing space on its 3.1 million bpd Mainline. pipeline system even once TMX starts operating, easing. concerns amongst some analysts the business could see a drop in. volumes and profits.

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The majority of the brand-new capacity on TMX will be for heavy crude. barrels, suggesting artificial and light petroleum is more than likely to. face rationing on the Mainline and any resulting rate. discount rates, stated RBN's King.

The brand-new capability on TMX will give heavy crude manufacturers a. choice of sending out barrels to the U.S. west coast and Asia, or to. the U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast on existing pipelines.

On a recent revenues call, Imperial Oil CEO Brad. Corson said having extra pipeline capacity would lift the value. of heavy crude for the entire Canadian oil industry.

Imperial will continue to move the majority of its barrels to the. Midwest and Gulf Coast, while keeping a watch out for the. highest-value markets, he included.

Ryan Bushell, president of Newhaven Asset Management, which. holds shares in pipeline business including Enbridge, said TMX. would likely perform at less than complete capacity if strong prices on. the Gulf Coast, the world's largest heavy crude refining centre,. drew barrels onto pipelines heading south.

Everything depends upon where the best rates is, for the first. time in a very long time producers will have optionality, Bushell. stated.

No matter how quickly TMX fills up, it is most likely to be Canada's. last significant export pipeline ever constructed, due to regulative. difficulties, environmental opposition and uncertainty about future. oil need.

The potential for brand name brand-new pipelines getting built is. quite near to no, RBN's King stated.

(source: Reuters)