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Trade deal between India and the UK worth $6 billion will start on July 15
The British government announced on Wednesday that the free trade agreement between Britain and India would come into force on July 15. They reached an agreement to 'implement' the deal in spite of a dispute regarding London's upcoming steel tariff regime. Indian officials raised the possibility of reopening the FTA worth PS4.8 billion ($6.5billion) signed last year or delaying its application, out of concern over the 'impact of new UK Steel Trade Measures, which are due to come into effect on July 1'. The two countries have agreed to move forward with the implementation of the deal after the British Prime Minister Keir Starmer met with his Indian counterpart Narendra modi at the G7 summit in France. In a press release, British Business and Trade Minister Peter Kyle said: "The deal gives British Exporters an advantage over international competitors. I encourage all businesses to make sure they are prepared." The deal will see 'India' slash whisky tariffs by 40%, from 150%. Automotives will go from 10% to 100% under a quota. The British government said that businesses have 28 days to register in order to receive tariff reductions.
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Official: Brazil will scrap fuel subsidies when oil prices stabilize at $80 or more
Rogerio Ceron is the executive'secretary' of the Finance Ministry. He said that Brazil would end?subsidies on diesel and gasoline if crude oil prices stabilized around $80 a barrel, due to the progress made towards a U.S.Iran agreement to end their conflict. Ceron stated in a Tuesday interview that a de-escalation of the Middle East will likely improve inflation expectations, and ease pressure on interest rates over long periods. This will give Brazil's central banks more room to continue cutting rates. Brent crude fell by 5.1% to $78.96 per barrel on Tuesday as the details of a preliminary deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz emerged. Ceron stressed caution following sharp fluctuations in oil prices, exchange rates, and interest rates. If oil prices stabilize at $80 per barrel, it will not be necessary to continue these fuel subsidy measures. He said that we would withdraw them with caution. Since the conflict began late February, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has taken emergency measures to cushion rising oil prices. These include tax cuts and subsidies for diesel, gasoline and jet fuel. The majority of measures are designed to last two months with the option to extend. Ceron says that many expire in July. This gives time to evaluate the effect of a ceasefire. He said, "There are only two options: either end them sooner or let them expire on schedule." Ceron said that while $80 was higher than $70 earlier in the year, the Brazilian Real has strengthened, from around $5.20 to about $5.50 per dollar. This helped offset some inflationary pressure. He said that the recent increase in inflation predictions was largely due to the war. He rejected the analysis of certain economists who claim government stimulus played an important role. He said that if you take out the war's impact, there was no inflationary pressure. Oil stabilizing should allow inflation expectations to quickly reverse, allowing monetary policy more room to maneuver, he said, ahead of Wednesday's central bank rate decision. STIMULUS DISPUTED Private sector analysts estimate that Brazil's economy saw more than 200 billion reais (39 billion dollars) in stimulus during this year, as Lula is heading towards an October reelection bid. This amount comes primarily from subsidies and guaranteed outside the primary budget balance of the government. Ceron rejected these estimates. If there was a stimulus equal to 2% of the GDP, then growth would be closer towards 3%. He cited recent data, such as retail sales, which showed "significant deceleration." The Finance Ministry predicts GDP growth this year of 2.3%, which Ceron says is within the range of?2.0-2.5%. According to a survey by the central bank, market forecasts are at 1.96%. Ceron stated that some analysts confuse fiscally neutral policies, such expanded income tax exemptions with policies which only marginally increase activity. GLOBAL ACTORS DRIVING YIELDS Ceron acknowledged the fiscal challenges Brazil faces, but said that high interest rates were not solely driven by fiscal conditions. He pointed to structural factors like low domestic saving. He said that the recent increase in Brazilian debt yields is mainly driven by "strong U.S. data and global repricing". He said that "our spread relative to the U.S. does not differ from historical levels." Brazil will likely issue sustainable bonds during the second half of this year. Other news is expected to be announced by Finance Minister Dario Dario Durigan when he visits China. Reports indicate that Brazil will announce its first sovereign bond issuance in yuan, also known as Panda Bonds, during Dario Durigan's visit to China.
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G7 creates critical minerals alliance, crisis platform
The G7 leaders agreed 'on Wednesday' to increase coordination -on the critical mineral supply?chains. They also outlined plans to coordinate stockpiling, and a new platform for cooperation with IEA. Western powers are racing against time to diversify the?sources? of metals that are critical for defence, technology and renewable energy?and to reduce their over-reliance upon Chinese products. China shocked?the global economic system last year, when it imposed export restrictions on permanent magnets. This exposed the world's dependence upon a single supplier. In a joint statement, the leaders stated that they were "committed to working toward harmonized and interoperable mechanisms". This would begin with two critical minerals: lithium and nickel. The goal is to avoid undermining competition or imposing excessive costs burdens. They said that the G7 would also create a 'dedicated platform to coordinate policy, data sharing and crisis response. Working with 'the International Energy Agency, they will monitor markets and flag risk, as reported first by. The group stated that the platform would rely on the agency to provide analysis and "early alerts" of market distortions.
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Trump Administration pivots towards buying stakes of critical sectors
As part of its efforts to reduce its dependence on China, the Trump administration is stepping up efforts to secure U.S. supplies chains for essential minerals and semiconductors. Federal grants are being converted into equity stakes within companies. The U.S. Department of Commerce awarded $500 million on Wednesday to SandboxAQ, a company backed by Nvidia. This money will be used to develop new materials to make chips. The following companies are linked to the strategic investments push: SANDBOXAQ In exchange for a small stake in the company, the U.S. Commerce Department awarded $500 million to SandboxAQ, a Nvidia-backed company. The money was used to develop new materials?for semiconductor manufacture. SandboxAQ didn't disclose the size of government stake, but said it did not include voting rights or board seats. If SandboxAQ develops materials in four focus areas, and licenses the formulas to industrial partners for mass-production, the department will receive royalty payments. QUANTUM COMPUTING COMPANIES The Trump administration is investing $1 billion in IBM to launch Anderon, America's first dedicated facility for manufacturing quantum chips. IBM will invest $1 billion into Anderon. The government did not reveal the stake that it holds in Anderon. - GlobalFoundries The U.S. is investing $375 million to help accelerate the development of quantum technology solutions. The government has agreed to invest an equity stake in the company of approximately 1%. - D-Wave, Rigetti Computing, Infleqtion , Atom Computing, PsiQuantum, Quantinuum The Trump administration is investing $100 million in each company to help?solve key technical obstacles that have slowed down the development of powerful quantum computers. They will also take minority equity stakes, but not control. Diraq The government will take a stake in the company in exchange for funding of up to 38 million dollars to help develop and scale up quantum computing technology. USA RARE EARTH Project: rare earth mine to magnet supply chain Sources familiar with the situation said that the Trump administration would take a 10% stake as part of a debt-and equity investment package. Details:?USA Rare Earth is building an integrated U.S. Rare Earth and Magnet Production Chain supported by $1.6 Billion in proposed CHIPS Act Funding. Strategic Value: This effort aims to increase U.S. rare-earth processing capability and strengthen domestic supply chain in critical minerals. KOREA ZINC Stake purchased: around 10% Project: $7.4 billion smelter in Tennessee Details: A joint venture between U.S. and Korean partners will build a $7.4 billion smelter for Korea Zinc in Tennessee. The U.S. Department of Defense holds a 40% stake, and the Commerce Department provides $210 million in subsidies through the CHIPS Act. Korea Zinc will distribute $1.9 billion in new shares to the JV and strategic investors from the United States, giving them about 10% of the company. The JV and strategic investors in the U.S. will receive about 10% of the new shares, worth $1.9? The remainder $5.5 billion will be derived from $4.7 The remaining $5.5 billion will come from $4.7? Construction will begin in 2026 with phased operation starting in 2029. Strategic Value: This project will strengthen U.S. supply chain and reduce reliance on China. China dominates the global supply of critical minerals and has recently restricted antimony and Germanium exports to the United States. TRILOGY METALS Investment includes warrants for an additional 7.5% Project: Upper Kobuk Mineral Projects in Alaska. A JV between Trilogy Metals, an Australian miner South32 and Trilogy Metals. Details: The White House is investing approximately $35.6 million to develop critical mineral resources in the UKMP located in Alaska’s Ambler mining district. Trump signed a second executive order that directed his administration to allow an access road into the Ambler Mining District. Ambler Mining District is a mineral-rich area that has copper, lead and zinc deposits. CRITICAL METALS The stake under discussion is approximately 8% Project: Tanbreez rare earths deposit, Greenland Four people with knowledge of the discussions said that Trump administration officials had discussed taking a stake on Critical Metals. Washington would gain a direct stake in the Greenland rare earths project, which is the Arctic territory Trump had suggested buying. LITHIUM AMERICAS Stakes acquired: 5% of parent company and 5% of the joint venture with General Motors, Thacker Pass Project: The lithium mine at Thacker Pass, Nevada Strategic Value: This project is seen as an important part of Washington’s efforts to increase U.S. lithium production, a metal that can be used to produce batteries for electric cars and other electronic devices. MP?MATERIALS Stake purchased: about 15% Project: Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine,?California MP operates the sole U.S. rare-earths mine, and is working on boosting domestic processing and magnet manufacturing. The U.S. Department of Defense is the largest shareholder of Las Vegas-based MP. This will be Washington's highest-profile investment in the vital minerals sector to date. INTEL CORP Stake purchased: 9.9% Strategic Value: Intel will use the investment to expand its advanced manufacturing capabilities in the U.S. and strengthen supply chain security. Reporting by Arunima Kumna, Vallari Srivastava and Sumit Saha in Bengaluru, and editing by Maju Samuel, Anil D'Silva and Shilpa Majumdar.
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Gold gains ground as Fed meeting, US-Iran Deal details and Fed meeting in the spotlight.
Investors awaited the U.S. Central Bank's first policy announcement under new Chairman Kevin Warsh as well as further details on the U.S. Iran peace agreement to provide further direction. By 8:20 am EDT (1220 GMT), spot gold had not changed much at $4,325.59 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures fell 0.2% to $4,345.00. Federal Reserve rate?decisions, policy statements and updated policymaker forecasts will be announced at 2 pm EDT (1800 GMT). Warsh will give a presser half an hour later. He replaced former Fed Chief Jerome Powell in the last month. Kevin Warsh will be the focus of attention, not U.S. interest rates. Gold is highly sensitive to interest rates expectations, so any hint of hawkishness could weigh on the metal. Prices may rise to $4,350, if $4300 is a reliable support. Weakness below the $4,300 level could lead to a drop back towards $4250-4200 per ounce. Last week, spot gold reached a low of nearly six months as inflation fears caused by the Iran conflict increased expectations for rate increases in the United States. Gold is often seen as a hedge to inflation but high interest rates can put pressure on bullion as it has no yield. After the U.S. reached a framework agreement with Iran, prices began to rebound. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that the agreement reached with Iran this week was not final and that he would be able to resume bombing a campaign if it did not suit him. "Gold and silver could reach a cyclical bottom between 2026 and 2027." In our baseline scenario gold could average around $4,000 an ounce by the year's end, while silver could settle at about $60, Intesa Sanpaolo analyst Daniela Corsini wrote in a report. Silver spot fell by 0.5%, to $69.84 an ounce. Palladium dropped 0.2% to $1,349.11 and platinum lost 0.9% at $1,787.15. Ashitha Shivprasad, Bengaluru (reporting); Milla Nissi - Prussak; Diti Pujara; and Shashesh Kuber.
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IEA sees significant 2027 oil surplus after Hormuz recovery
In its monthly report on the oil market, released by the International Energy Agency on Wednesday, it was stated that the 'oil market' will recover from the Strait of Hormuz closure in 2027 and move into an important supply surplus. The U.S. announced an interim deal to 'end' the Iran war. This includes Iran reopening strait, and the U.S. removing its naval blockade against Iran. According to the IEA, it is estimated that more than 14,000,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd), from Middle East production have been blocked by this war. In its first look into 2027, the IEA predicted that oil supply would surge by 8 millions bpd, while demand will rise by 2 million bpd. The IEA stated that a large supply surplus 'in 2027 would "provide a welcomed respite for the market, and the opportunity to replenish depleted stocks, or build new strategic reserve, as countries reviewed their energy policies and strategies in response to 'the crisis. The Middle East supply is already rising The IEA reported that the flow through the strait was already increasing by early June due to an increase in ship-to -ship transfers within the Gulf of Oman. This helped?to raise total Middle East flows from a low of 9.6 millions bpd in May to 12 million bpd. The agency that advises industrialized countries said, "If the deal is upheld, then exports and production in the Gulf will gradually recover - not to mention the fact that Iranian oil exports can resume fully once the U.S. ban on exports has been lifted." The IEA stated that political and operational constraints such as prolonged demining, and unresolved?transit arrangements, pose downside risks for the Middle East recovery 'outlook. The IEA predicts that oil production will fall by 3.9 millions bpd globally in 2026 as the Middle East's declines outpace the rise in output in the Americas. The IEA reported that Russian crude oil and refined oil exports were stable in May despite the continued drone attacks by Ukraine on refineries. However, these attacks forced Russia prioritise the supply of fuel to its domestic market while maximising crude oil exports. Brent futures were $79.32 per barrel at 1125 GMT on Wednesday. This is up 36 cents compared to the previous close, and up 74cents compared to where they were at just before the report at 0759 GMT. DEMAND DESTRUCTION SPREADS According to the IEA after a drop of 5 million bpd between April and June, global oil demand is expected to fall by 1.1 millions bpd in 2018. The IEA reported that the destruction of fuel demand has reached areas beyond those initially affected by the 'Iran War'. Deliveries of gasoil and all other major fuels are "showing signs" of strain in almost all regions. The IEA stated that the demand will grow and recover 'quickly' next year as falling oil prices and improving economic prospects drive the recovery. In its own report each month, rival forecaster OPEC lowered their forecast for the growth of oil demand in 2026 from 1.1 million barrels to 970,000. Large Surplus Looms in 2027 According to'calculations the IEA's forecasts imply a supply deficit of around 920,000 bpd in 2026. This is a decrease from a 1.78 million bpd in the previous report. The IEA forecasts for 2027 indicate that the supply of oil will exceed demand by 5,05 million bpd in 2019, as Middle East barrels return and supply increases. This is higher than the IEA's previous forecast for 2026, which it pinned in its November 20,25 report at 4,09 million bpd. The IEA warned that oil inventories may fall further, to historic lows, before the market balance can shift towards a surplus by the end of the year. According to preliminary IEA figures, inventories have dropped at a rate 3.8 million bpd in the period since the beginning of the conflict on February 28. Stock draws alone were around 4.6 millions bpd in May. (Reporting and editing by Tomasz Janowski and Jason Neely; reporting by Robert Harvey, London)
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The gold price has not changed much as the markets await Warsh's Fed debut and details of the US-Iran agreement
Gold prices were little altered on Wednesday as market participants focused on the Federal Reserve’s first policy decision under the new chair Kevin Warsh, and the details of the U.S. Iran peace agreement. By 1053 GMT the spot gold price was unchanged at $4,332.07 an ounce, following four sessions of gains. U.S. Gold Futures fell 0.1% to $4,351.60. The gold market will be influenced by the FOMC's signals today. Investors will be closely watching how Kevin Warsh interprets the recent market developments, according to Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank. At 1800 GMT the Fed will announce its policy decision. It is widely expected that policymakers will keep rates unchanged. The focus will then shift to Warsh's remarks. Geopolitically, the details of the 'U.S. Details of the?U.S. and Iran's?interim agreement to end the Middle East war began to emerge Tuesday. U.S. After the announcement of the deal, spot gold rose to a one week?high. This was a rebound from the six-month low that it had reached last week. The higher energy prices that 'fuel inflation fears and expectations of rate increases' had weighed down on the non-yielding gold, which is?less appealing in an environment with high interest rates. Standard Chartered analysts said that gold 'price action is fragile in the short term following the breach of key technical support near the 200-day moving average. They added that the easing in liquidity requirements following the announcement by the 'U.S. and Iran memorandum on understanding bodes well for gold to find a price 'floor' sooner than later. Silver spot fell by 0.3%, to $69.98 an ounce. Platinum lost 0.8%, to $1,788.40, and palladium dropped 0.4%, to $1,346.45. Ashitha Shivprasad, Bengaluru (Reporting and Editing by Milla Nissi-Prussak & Diti Pjara).
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Slovak farmers begin their first barley and pea harvests
Drought in southern Slovakia has caused the earliest harvest of barley and peas yet. The 'Slovak Agriculture and Food Chamber' said that the harvesting of winter barley began in the southwest regions of the Danube Lowlands last week, about a week and a half to two weeks sooner than usual. In recent years, the dates of harvesting cereals have gotten earlier and earlier across Europe. This has forced farmers to switch crop varieties or sow their crops at different times. Farmers and agronomists were worried about drought in fields near Velky Grob (southwest Slovakia) as they harvested peas. Tomas Paska, from the Macaj group of farming companies, said that a mild winter raised expectations for a good crop but a dry May and April meant lower yields?for crops grown on poorer soils. He said: "We can speak of a relatively good crop on irrigated farms, but in places without irrigation, or with weaker soils, the high temperatures will cause a rapid decrease in grain volume." Unprecedented dryness followed by rain Slovakia experienced the driest month of April since records began 145 years earlier. May and early-June were also dry. The last week has seen heavy rain. Slovak Agriculture and Food Chamber: Much depends on the conditions now as harvest continues. Jozef Artim, director of the chamber, said: "This trend has been around for several years. The harvest is shifting. Now the key is the weather during harvesting." "We are seeing periods of drought, which?are changing with intense rain. This will continue to pose a problem." Farmers can sow earlier than usual in autumn in the northern hemisphere. "Barley is usually a spring crop but many farmers now sow it in autumn to benefit from the moisture during the fall and winter, and briefly in?spring. Artim says that it is not uncommon for spring-sown barley to be useless. According to official statistics, Slovaks harvested 2.3 millions metric tons (or 2.2 million bushels) of wheat last year, which is the most common crop. The increase in area sown, combined with higher yields, meant that the harvest was 20% more than the 2024 crop. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis; Radovan Lopatka and Jan Lopatka)
LME launches contract using Shanghai Futures Exchange Steel Price in October
The London Metal Exchange and its Shanghai counterpart agreed on Wednesday to use Chinese futures prices for a new LME Contract, advancing China's agenda of boosting influence in commodity price.
The LME is hoping to??boost volumes and attract new clients by mirroring the Shanghai Futures Exchange's one of the most liquid steel contracts in the world.
Launch of the contract is due in October
In a joint announcement, the LME and SHFE announced that the trading of the contract?based on the Shanghai Hot-Rolled Coil Futures would begin in October.
A steel trader said, "It's a good idea from a 'price discovery' perspective but will require liquidity."
The LME must protect its position as the centre for price discovery and the primary market for metals.
The Chinese government has pushed Chinese exchanges to innovate and increase their influence in order to achieve its goal of having domestic players have a greater control over global commodities prices.
SHFE Chairman Tian Xiangyang said, "This 'cooperation' will further attract global enterprises and financial institutions in order to participate in the price formation and continually enhance the international impact of China’s steel futures product."
The SHFE HRC contract has 169 millions lots in 2025, which is equivalent to 1,69 billion metric tonnes, while the LME Chinese HRC futures have only?139.109 lots.
The LME/SHFE new contract was born in October 2023 when the LME announced that it had agreed to work with SHFE in?product development.
LME Chairman John Williamson stated that the new contract would give companies outside China easy access to one the most liquid commodity contracts in the world, as well as the convenience of trading an LME cash-settled contract.
The LME and Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd., the parent company of the LME, will have a Dubai-based company that will handle currency conversions and pricing for the new contract.
The LME stated at the time that 'the Dubai entity, Commodity Pricing &?Analysis Limited was associated with its plans to launch a?new mechanism to determine how much a premium customers will pay for metals with lower carbon. Eric Onstad is the reporter. Pratima Dasai contributed additional reporting. Alison Williams, Louise Heavens, Mark Potter and Mark Potter (Editing)
(source: Reuters)