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South America could increase oil production by as much as 2.1 million barrels in the mid-2030s
Rystad Energy, an energy research company, said that a sustained oil price of 100?a barrel would unlock?2.1million barrels of crude supply per day in South America by the mid-2030s. Rystad's 2026 Brent average price forecast was revised to $89 per barrel in January due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. By the Numbers Over the next decade, offshore?developments could produce more than 1 million barrels of oil-equivalent per day in Brazil. * In a scenario where oil costs $100 per barrel, Venezuela would be able to add 910,000 bpd in 2035. 57% of this could come from existing fields, where the cost for medium crude is $7-$8 a barrel. The Vaca 'Muerta crude oil production in Argentina is expected to increase from the current 600,000 bpd level by the end of this decade. The $89 per barrel forecast is expected to increase government revenues in?South America? by $43 billion. * According to Radhika Bansal of Rystad Energy, "South America has now become the world's largest source of incremental oil supply." (Reporting and Writing by Kylie Madry; Editing by Brendan O'Boyle).
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Gulf fears US-Iran discussions could cement Tehran's "golden" grip on Hormuz
Former Russian President?Dmitry Medvedev's warning has crystallised Gulf state fears that reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could be all the Iran-U.S. negotiations can achieve and fall short of a?broader deescalation? they consider vital. Analysts and officials expect that the next round, which is due to take place in Islamabad on November 30, will be more focused on the uranium enrichment limit and the way Iran can exert influence over the Strait of Hormuz, the most important oil shipping route on the planet. Gulf?officials warn that the approach could entrench Iran's grip over Middle East energy by managing its leverage rather than dismantling it,?prioritising the global economic stability while leaving the most vulnerable countries to energy and security implications outside of formal decision making. Gulf sources claim that U.S. diplomacy with Iran is now focused less on Iran's missile program and more on enrichment rates and accepting Tehran's leverage on Hormuz which transports about a fifth the world's oil supply. Gulf officials are concerned about the new priorities in the Gulf, despite the fact that negotiations over enrichment remain stuck, as Iran refuses to enrich at all and also demands to export its stockpiles. One Gulf source, close to the government, said: "Hormuz is the redline." It wasn't a problem before. Now it is. "The goalposts have been moved." The Gulf Arab governments did not immediately respond to our requests for comments on the topics raised in this article. Iran's threats against Gulf shipping during wartime have broken longstanding taboos around the Strait. This has made its disruption a real lever in negotiations for first time. Medvedev - the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council - outlined Hormuz’s central role in a blog post on X, on April 8, 2008. Medvedev stated that it was not yet clear how Washington and Tehran would come to an agreement. "But there is one certainty -- Iran has tested nuclear weapons. The Strait of Hormuz is the name of this area. "Its potential is unending." The comment portrayed Hormuz in a way that Iran could raise costs and influence rules without going over the nuclear threshold. HORMUZ IS a 'GOLDEN ASSSET', SAYS AN IRANIAN SECURITY RESOURCE Iranian security officials?echoed that view in private, describing Strait of Hormuz not as an emergency but as a deterrent instrument prepared for years. A senior Iranian source said that Iran had planned every step for years to prepare for a scenario where the Strait of Hormuz would be closed. Today, it's one of Iran’s most powerful tools - a form geographic leverage that acts as a powerful threat. The source described the Strait as "a golden, invaluable asset rooted within Iran's geography - one that the world cannot remove precisely because it flows out of Iran's location." Another Iranian source close to the Revolutionary Guards went even further and suggested that the long-standing taboo around the use of Hormuz had now been broken. This source referred to Hormuz, as a "sword drawn from its sheath", that the U.S.A. and the regional states couldn't ignore. It gave the region leverage against external powers. Analysts say that what most alarms Gulf Arab countries is the fact that, despite Iranian missiles, drones, and proxies repeatedly attacking their region, discussions are increasingly focused almost exclusively on Hormuz due to its global economic impact. This marginalises Gulf security concerns. Gulf sources claim that the core of the Hormuz dispute has less to do with who controls the Strait and more to do with who sets the rules for passage. This reflects a wider shift away from international norms towards power-based arrangements. Ebtesam al-Ketbi is the president of the Emirates Policy Center. He said that this exposes a disparity between those who set the rules and those who suffer the consequences when they are broken. Al-Ketbi said that "what is taking shape is not an historic settlement, but a deliberate engineering for a sustainable conflict." She added, "Who is suffering because of missiles and proxy states?" "Israel and the Gulf States. We would benefit from addressing missiles, proxies and Hormuz. "It seems that they are not interested in the missiles, or the proxies." WARNING: SANCTIONS RELIEF Analysts warn that such an approach to the talks will not resolve tensions so much as stabilize them at manageable level. This outcome may suit Washington and Tehran, but risk entrenching instability for Gulf States living under the missile threat. Gulf economies are already feeling the effects of the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran that began on 28 February. This includes attacks on energy infrastructure, as well as rising insurance and export costs. Alternative export routes increase costs and are still exposed to Iranian missile threats. Diplomats claim that Gulf officials have asked Washington to refrain from lifting all sanctions, urging a "phased" approach in order to test Iran's behavior. They claim that the core threats are still unaddressed. This includes missiles capable of hitting Gulf capitals, and Iran's armed proxy forces used as extensions to the Iranian state. The Arab Gulf is now awash with a range of feelings toward Washington, from a quiet resentment all the way to frustration and confusion about unilateral U.S. decisions. Abdulaziz Sager of the Gulf Research Center in Saudi Arabia said that dealing with the Iran problem required a "different approach". He added that "the U.S. was part of the regional security ..."." "But this does not mean going all-out without involving the regional." Although Gulf leaders resent being ignored, they acknowledge that U.S. superiority in military capability continues to influence?outcomes. Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a UAE academic, said Gulf Arab states survived the war largely due to their defences and sophisticated U.S. weapons such as THAAD and Patriot. A ANALYST SHOWS THE LIMITATIONS of relying on a single protector Abdulla said that while America is indispensable, it's also fallible. He cited what he called its underestimation on the likelihood of a confrontation over Hormuz. The U.S. repeatedly committed to?defending its Gulf Allies during the War via air and missile defense cooperation, naval safety and protection of critical infrastructure. The Gulf states believe that one of the lessons of the war is to limit reliance on an external protector. Mohammed Baharoon said this, the director of Dubai's B'huth research center. Gulf Arab leaders say that they have warned Washington for years against a conflict with Iran. Yet, they have been silent since the war began. Restraint is not only a reflection of diplomacy, but also of uncertainty about a conflict that they are paying for with economic costs and defense costs, but cannot control. As Washington and Tehran continue to negotiate, Gulf officials claim that their exclusion is not a regional matter but rather a global issue, given the international importance of Hormuz. (Samia Nakhoul and Parisa Hafezi contributed additional reporting from Dubai. Editing was done by William Maclean.
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Cuba praises the'respectful meeting' with US officials at Havana
?U.S. An official from the Cuban Foreign Ministry confirmed in an interview with state-run newspaper Granma that officials recently met their 'Cuban counterparts' in Havana. Axios reported Friday that an important U.S. delegation visited the island a week earlier, saying Cuban authorities have a limited window of time to adopt reforms backed by the U.S. before conditions worsen. Alejandro Garcia del Toro is the Cuban foreign ministry's?U.S. The Cuban Foreign Ministry's Alejandro Garcia del Toro, who handles?U.S. Garcia del Toro stated that "eliminating energy embargo" against Cuba was a top priority for his delegation. Axios reported that the U.S. officials asked the Cuban government, in addition to compensating for the assets and properties confiscated following the?1959 Revolution, to release political prisoners, and to ensure greater political freedoms. Axios reported that the U.S. delegation also offered to establish Starlink satellite services in the country. Garcia del Toro stated that Cuba was represented at the "level of deputy foreign minister" and the U.S. by deputy officials from the State Department. Axios reported that Raul Guillermo Rodrguez Castro was involved in the talks. He is 94-year-old grandson of former Cuban President Raul Castro.
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Gold falls to a one-week-low due to tensions between the US and Iran and a stronger dollar
Gold prices dropped to a new?low of one week on Monday, before recovering a little as Iran threatened retaliation for the U.S. taking over of an Iranian cargo ship. This drove up oil and dollar prices. As of 1:32 pm EDT (1732 GMT), spot gold was down by 0.4%, at $4,810.26 an ounce. It had earlier hit its lowest price in the session since April 13. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery?settled at $4,828.8 - a 1% decrease. As renewed tensions between the United States and Iran caused market uncertainty about the likelihood of a peaceful settlement, the U.S. Dollar rose to its highest levels in a week. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Yields increased, increasing the cost of non-yielding gold. Risk CEASEFIRE WILL Not Hold Fawad Rasaqzada is a market analyst for City Index and FOREX.com. He said that the situation in the Middle East had clearly deteriorated again. This has shifted our gold forecast slightly to the downside due to the increased risk of another sharp rise in oil prices. The ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. appeared to be in danger on Monday following the seizure of the cargo vessel. Prices of oil rose by around 5% as a result of fears that the ceasefire might collapse and the fact that the Strait of Hormuz was largely blocked. Gold is a good inflation hedge. However, the demand for this non-yielding investment tends to decrease when global interest rates rise. Rates could stay higher for longer due to a rise in inflation caused by the Middle East war. "Gold traders are choosing to be bearish on this day (higher dollar and yields) for the metals. Technically, the next price target for June gold futures bulls is a close above a solid resistance level?at $5,000," Jim Wyckoff said in a report. Silver spot fell by 1.3%, to $79.76 an ounce. Platinum dropped 1.4%, to $2,073.28, while palladium, which had hit a low of the week earlier, was down 0.2%, at $1,556.00. (Reporting from Bengaluru by Ishaan arora; Editing by Paul Simao, Barbara Lewis and Barbara Lewis.)
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Fermi shares plunge sharply following CEO and CFO resignations
The shares of U.S. energy startup Fermi dropped'sharply' on Monday following the sudden departures?of Toby Neugebauer, its co-founder and chief executive officer as well as Miles Everson, its Chief Financial Officer. Fermi?stood at $5.03, losing 23% on the day after the announcement made Friday night. The company announced that it has created an interim CEO office to be managed by two executives while a search for Neugebauer’s replacement is being conducted. Fuzzy Panda Research, a short seller, disclosed a short position on Fermi Monday. It alleged fraudulent transfers and misappropriation of assets by Neugebauer as well as other executives. Fermi didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. Neugebauer will remain on the board. Neugebauer co-founded Fermi 2025. The company announced on Monday that Marius?Haas has been named its new chairman and Everson elected to its board of Directors. According to LSEG, 10 analysts covering Fermi have an average rating of "BUY", while their median target price is $26.50. Fermi has developed a massive power generation facility in Amarillo Texas that will be powered by natural gas as well as nuclear energy. The project is aimed at artificial intelligence companies. It's called "Project Matador." Rick Perry is a Fermi founder and former U.S. Energy secretary. Texas Capital Securities analysts led Derrick Whitefield wrote in a note to investors that Fermi's Board has "reiterated" the operational plan, and the timelines for Project Matador have not changed. Chibuike Oguh, reporting from New York and Nick Zieminski, editing.
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Fed's nominee Warsh pledges independence of central bank with limitations
Kevin Warsh, the U.S. president Donald Trump's nominee to lead the Federal Reserve, will say to lawmakers during his confirmation hearing on Tuesday that he "is committed to ensuring the conduct of monetary policies remains strictly independent", according to prepared remarks that were released on Monday. The 56-year old former Fed governor and financier will say to members of the Senate Banking Committee that he is "committed to working with both the Administration and Congress in non-monetary issues which are within the Fed's mandate". Warsh stated in his prepared remarks that Fed independence "reaches its peak" when it comes to the 'operational conduct of monetary policies. He said that the degree of independence of the Fed does not cover all of its congressionally mandated duties. U.S. Central Bank policymakers do not have the same right to "special deference" when it comes to their stewardship over public money, bank regulation, and supervision. Warsh has been nominated as the new Fed Chair Jerome Powell. He also pledged to bring about change in the monetary policy agency. In prepared remarks, he stated that a Federal Reserve focused on reform can make a significant difference for the American people in a period of history that is likely to be one of the most important in the nation's past. Warsh was a Fed Governor from 2006 until 2011, and used much of his address to reiterate criticisms he made of the central banks in 'the decade-and-a half after resigning. He said that the Fed must "stay on its lane", and not stray too far into social and fiscal policies. In the past, Warsh has taken the Fed to task when it did research into the economic impacts of climate change and targeted "inclusive" employment. In the past few years, the Fed has abandoned its focus on climate changes. Warsh said that he believes the Fed's independence is under siege because it has not met its mandate to maintain price stability, as set by Congress. Warsh stated that low?inflation was the Fed's plot armour, protecting it from slings-and-arrows. When inflation spikes, as it has in recent years, it can cause a great deal of harm to citizens, who may lose confidence in the system that governs our economy. The confirmation hearing for Warsh before the Senate committee is set to start at 10:00 a.m. ET (1400 GMT) Tuesday. Ann Saphir and Doina Chiacu reported; Michelle Nichols edited by Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao and Michelle Nichols.
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Gold falls to a one-week-low due to tensions between the US and Iran, as well as a strong dollar.
Gold prices fell to a new low of one week on Monday before recovering slightly. The dollar and oil prices rose as a result of the retaliation threat from Iran in response to the U.S. seizure of an Iranian cargo ship. As of 12:49 am EDT (1649 GMT), spot gold was down by 0.5%, at $4,802.75 an ounce. It had earlier hit its lowest price in the session since April 13. U.S. Gold futures for June delivery dropped 1.2% to $4823.10. The U.S. Dollar rose to its highest levels in a 'week, before paring those gains as renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran caused market uncertainty about the prospects of a 'peace deal. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury increased, which increases the opportunity cost for holding non-yielding gold. Risk CEASEFIRE WILL Not Hold The situation in the Middle East is clearly worsening, and our gold forecast has been shifted?slightly downwards amid increased risks of another sharp rise in oil prices. This could lead to a higher dollar yield and bond yields," Fawad Rasaqzada said, a market analyst for City Index and FOREX.com. The ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. appeared to be in danger on Monday following the seizure of the cargo vessel. Prices of oil rose by around 5% as a result of fears that the ceasefire might collapse and the fact that the Strait of Hormuz was largely blocked. Gold is considered a hedge against inflation, but demand for the non-yielding investment tends to decrease when global interest rates rise. Rates could stay higher for longer due to increased inflation caused by the Middle East war. "Gold traders are selecting the daily bearish elements (higher dollars, yields) to?the metals on this day. Technically, the next price target for June gold futures bulls is to close above solid resistance of $5,000," said Jim Wyckoff, Kitco Metals senior analyst. Silver spot fell by 1.2%, to $79.83 an ounce. Platinum dropped 1.5%, to $2,071.70. Palladium, which had hit a low of the week earlier, was down by 0.2%, to $1,555.79. (Reporting and editing by Paul Simao in Bengaluru, Barbara Lewis, and Shailesh Kumar)
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Sources say that the Cardon refinery in Venezuela is restarting its catalytic cracker.
The fluid ?catalytic cracker of Venezuela's ?second-largest refinery, ?the 310,000-barrel-per-day ?Cardon, was restarting on Monday after a power outage affected the entire refinery last week, two workers from the facility said. One source said that workers were also restarting Cardon’s naphtha refinery on Monday. This would result in a total crude processing capacity of 237,000 bpd at Cardon, and its linked Amuay refining facility, or about 25% of combined installed capacity. PDVSA's state-owned energy company is prone to blackouts and other outages, which limit its fuel production for domestic distribution. The company has been granted U.S. licenses to import the refining feedstocks and?diluents it needs for its heavy oil production, which this year has contributed to a greater fuel supply. Separate workers reported that a similar gasoline production unit at Venezuela's smaller El Palito refinery was shut down due to a faulty piece of equipment late last week. It has been out of service ever since, they said. PDVSA didn't?immediately respond to a request for comment. Reporting?by Mircely Guianipa and Tibisay Roma in Valencia; writing by Marianna Pararaga, editing by David Gregorio
US Project Vault is aiming to close the first funding tranche as soon as possible, an official has said.
John Jovanovic, President and Chairman of the U.S. Export-Import Bank, said that Project Vault, which is the U.S. Government's vital?minerals reserves, will close its first funding tranche soon and begin helping manufacturers to manage supply, processing and storage challenges and supply-chain issues. Project Vault, announced by Donald Trump in February, aims to stockpile essential minerals and alleviate supply constraints for manufacturers who have been overly dependent on Chinese supplies for years.
The U.S. policy on critical minerals is centered around securing emergency supplies, but the industry's constraints go far beyond simply keeping metals in reserves.
Jovanovic stated that Project Vault is designed to address the broader market weaknesses, including a lack capital, too few creditworthy counterparties, and a need for flexible arrangements which can support long-term commitments in processing.
Jovanovic said, "It wasn't designed to be just a stockpile." "What was intended was to solve the problems that the market faces."
Project Vault combines private funding of $2 billion with a loan of $10 billion from the EXIM Bank.
Jovanovic, without naming this entity, said that it will be run by an independent, separate entity. Its management team would oversee storage and logistics, in consultation with the manufacturers.
What we want to achieve is to make it dynamic, and to help solve some of these problems.
Project Vault, unlike a traditional reserve is built to store both raw materials and processed products.
The independent entity will be working closely with the manufacturers.
Project Vault was designed to?allow companies to convert stockpiles of raw materials into products. Jovanovic stated that material could be removed from Vault and sent to a facility for processing, before being returned back to the system in a refined form.
This allows the manufacturers to "think ahead" and to start "to provide demand signals to refineries and processing assets."
Balance-sheet constraints are a major problem for many companies. Project Vault can be used by manufacturers who want to make long-term commitments and off-take deals.
Jovanovic suggested that you could use Project Vault for this?commitment.
He refused to name additional participants, beyond those who have already been identified. However, he said that more suppliers had signed on and "every major supplier" of manufacturers in the United States has discussed participating.
He said that the United States may not have enough warehouses, storage facilities, or bonded inventories.
"But if there is a creditworthy company that wants it, you can invite them to develop, build, and expand more storage facilities."
(source: Reuters)