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Raw sugar prices fall to a five-year low, while cocoa prices also decline
Raw sugar futures fell to their lowest level in five years on Wednesday. The potential for a large global surplus during the 2025/26 crop season is weighing on the prices. Dealers say that the expected increase in sugar production in India, which is the second largest producer in the world, has added to the concern about excess supplies, as the forecasts of the size of the anticipated global surplus in 2025/26 begin to grow. Raw sugar futures fell 0.1% to 14.21 cents a lb at 1445 GMT, after hitting a low of 14.05cents. It appears that the cane used to make ethanol is less than expected. This may be due to favourable rains during monsoon season this year. In a recent note, broker Czarnikow stated that "we now think India will produce more than sugar in 2025/26 with 32.8 million tonnes due to less sucrose going to ethanol." India produced approximately 26.1 million metric tonnes in 2024/25. Czarnikow increased its forecast of the global sugar surplus in 2025/26 by 1.2 millions tons to 8.7million tons. White sugar increased 0.1%, to $413.90 per ton. Futures cocoa prices eased as a result of the continued concern about weak demand following last year's price surge. Barry Callebaut announced on Wednesday that they expect sales of their cocoa products will decline by a percentage between mid-single figures in the coming financial year due to high cocoa prices. Market attention is also focused on the weather conditions in West Africa where crops are being harvested. In a report published on Wednesday, LSEG Research and Insights stated that "Wet weather could delay cocoa harvesting in southern Ghana and the western Ivory Coast and dry weather might favor Nigeria and Cameroon’s key crop areas." London cocoa fell 1.1% to 4,797 pounds per ton, while New York cocoa dropped 0.45% to $6570. The price of arabica coffee rose 1.6% to $4.1190 per lb, while the price of Robusta coffee increased 0.3%. Reporting by Nigel Hunt Editing Shailesh Kumar and David Goodman
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Report: Bulgaria drafts a law to facilitate the sale of a Russian-owned oil refinery sanctioned by the US
Local media reported that the ruling party of Bulgaria plans to introduce legislation to allow a special manager to supervise the sale, if one is appointed, of the Burgas Oil Refinery owned by the Russian oil company Lukoil sanctioned by the United States. Mediapool in Bulgaria reported the draft document. It would allow a special manager the right to sell an asset. The legal owner of the refinery would not have the right to vote or appeal. Last month, the U.S., Britain, and France imposed sanctions against Russia's biggest oil companies Lukoil, and Rosneft over Moscow's conflict in Ukraine. This has complicated their operations. The Bulgarian government has confirmed that several subsidiaries of Lukoil, including the Burgas refinery and the Burgas group, will be subject to the latest U.S. sanction. The government said it was in contact with U.S. institutions to ensure the 190,000-barrel-per-day refinery can continue operating. Boyko Borissov - former Bulgarian prime minister and leader the GERB Party - that heads Bulgaria's government coalition - announced on Wednesday evening that a law introducing a special manager would be introduced. Borissov was quoted by BNT as saying: "There's a lot to this. That's why we will today submit a law draft on the special governor." Sources say that Lukoil struggles to maintain operations at its vast foreign businesses, as Western sanctions disrupt oil loads in Iraq, pumping stations in Finland, and trading in Switzerland. The U.S. Treasury has issued a license allowing companies to end any Lukoil transactions until 21 November. (Reporting from Robert Harvey and Georgi slavov. Angeliki Koutantou is the author. Mark Potter (editing)
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Gold prices rise on risk-aversion despite US payrolls data.
Gold prices rose over 1% on Wednesday, lifted by investors avoiding risky assets despite stronger-than-expected private payrolls data in the U.S. By 8:58 am, spot gold had risen 1.1% to $3,976.15 an ounce. ET (1358 GMT). U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery rose 0.7% to $ 3,986.40 an ounce. "Gold and silver are modestly higher despite a stronger-than-expected ADP private payrolls report, which is the best broad jobs indicator given the shutdown. This should comfort bulls who were shocked that metals dropped along with risky investments yesterday," said Tai Wong an independent metals dealer. The ADP Employment Report showed that private U.S. employment increased by 42,00 jobs in the last month. This was above an estimate of 28,000 new jobs. A strong job market can reduce the likelihood of rate reductions and even increase rates for longer. On Wednesday, stocks fell from record highs amid fears that equity markets have become overstretched. Jim Wyckoff is a senior analyst with Kitco Metals. He said that "some safe-haven demands have surfaced in mid-week, as global stock markets remain a little shaky due to the idea U.S. stock are overvalued, and there's an AI bubble." The U.S. Federal Reserve also cut interest rates in the last week. Chair Jerome Powell indicated that it may be the final rate reduction for this year. The traders now expect a 70% probability of a rate cut in December. This is down from 90% last week. Gold that does not yield tends to perform well in low interest rate environments and times of economic uncertainty. The U.S. Supreme Court will hear a hearing on the legality President Donald Trump's Tariffs later that day, after a lower-court ruled that the administration overstepped its authority in imposing levies based on an emergency law. The price of palladium rose 2.2%, while platinum gained 1%, to $1,550.60. (Reporting from Noel John in Bengaluru and Pablo Sinha; editing by Sahal Muhammad)
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Britannia, India's largest company, names Birla Opus CEO as its new CEO
Rakshit Hardgave, the former Birla Opus CEO, was named as Britannia Industries' new CEO on Wednesday. He succeeds Rajneet Kohli, who retired in March. This management change is occurring as Indian consumer goods manufacturers are facing a period of tax rate reductions and changing demand trends. There is also pressure on margins to maintain growth and protect them. Britannia shares rose by about 25% when Kohli took over the company in September 2022. Hargave is set to take over Britannia as of December 15, according to the biscuit maker 'Good Day. Grasim Industries announced earlier that day his resignation from Birla Opus paints. Birla Opus, under his leadership, gave Asian Paints, the market leader, one of their biggest challenges in decades. It cornered a significant share of the market in just over a year after its launch in 2024. Hargave worked for Grasim in Bengaluru for four years. He has also previously worked at Hindustan Unilever, Domino's Pizza franchisee Jubilant Foodworks and other Indian consumer giants. (Reporting by Hritam Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Leroy Leo)
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Brazil's most deadly police raid places Lula in political trouble
Luiz inacio Lula da Solo, Brazil's president, is still reeling from the aftermath of his country's deadliest police operation. He has been left unable to handle political fallout as he tries to reconcile growing international concern over human rights abuses with public support for an aggressive crackdown on crime. This divide highlights a broader problem facing Lula. He is hoping to be re-elected next year, and has devoted much of his political capital towards an "ecological transform" of Brazil's economic system, capped off by the U.N. Climate Conference COP30, which starts this week. However, most Brazilians seem more concerned with public security. At least 121 people, including four officers of the Rio de Janeiro police force, died in the raid on October 28. United Nations officials condemned the level of violence and called for independent investigations to be conducted into any possible illegal killings. Since then, activists have staged protests as more bodies are identified. Lula called the raid "disastrous" during his appearance at COP30 on Tuesday in Belem. He said that the judge had ordered arrest warrants, and not mass murders. "Yet there was mass murder." Lula was on his way back from Malaysia in a plane without internet when the raid occurred. According to a source in the presidential palace, Lula has kept a low-profile since then. His administration is "walking on eggs" according one source. A second source stated that "the government cannot take responsibility for this but it can't also support the massacre." In a report submitted to the Supreme Court by the Rio State government, it defended the operation claiming that the security forces had used "proportional" force and "no deaths have been reported outside of the narco terrorist organization," suggesting that police actions were targeted. Support for Police Killings New polling indicates that despite the brutality of the police operation, there is widespread support in the country for it. AtlasIntel's survey of Brazilians, published on Friday, showed that 55% supported the operation. Residents of Rio State were even more supportive at 62%. The results highlighted the political difficulties facing the leftist President, whose administration is struggling to meet voter demands for stricter security policies. Adeilton da Silva, 65, a Rio resident who works as a security guard in Copacabana, said, "A good criminal will be dead." "If it happened every week, criminals would be terrified." Brazil's political left has seized the opportunity to capitalize on this incident. Claudio Castro, the conservative ally who had ordered the operation and was a close ally to former President Jair Bolsonaro, has gained 10 points of approval following the incident, according to a separate Genial/Quaest survey conducted on Sunday. Ibaneis, the governor of the Federal District also supports Castro. In an interview he stated that it was astonishing that the organized crime had not only taken over Rio de Janeiro, but also spread to other large cities and state capitals throughout Brazil, even though Brazil produces very little drugs and does no manufacture heavy weapons. Right-wing politicians and political analysts draw parallels between the popularity of President Nayib Bukele's anti-gang policy curtailing due processes in El Salvador, as well as that of his anti-gang policies. In an interview on Monday, Romeu ZEMA, the conservative governor from Minas Gerais said that "El Salvador's experiences demonstrate that meaningful changes are possible, but they depend on a government who is willing to act." Zema and five other governors congratulated Castro and the Rio de Janeiro police force two days after the raid. They said that the slain had the opportunity to surrender and give themselves up. Only those who did not want to did so. Fear of more violence The Genial/Quaest survey found that despite Castro's portrayal of the raid, it did not do much to reassure the Rio public. A majority of Rio residents reported feeling less safe. The result is more violence, said Paulo Henrique Machado Cruz, a 54-year old parking attendant from Rio. "You do not solve the problem; you only make it worse." You scare children and destroy families. The Supreme Court of Brazil may give in to the demands made by left-wing politicians for an investigation into police violence in Rio, which would also lead to a federal probe into this deadly operation. Sources close Lula are concerned that the incident could undermine his recent gains ahead of the elections in 2026. The fallout is likely to continue, as the investigations unfold. According to the most recent Datafolha survey, Lula's approval rating increased to 33%, its highest level this year. Meanwhile, disapproval dropped to 38%. The Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes led a high-level police operation meeting in Rio on Monday. He was joined by the Governor Castro, officials from law enforcement, and representatives of the public prosecutors and defenders offices. Moraes oversees a landmark case at Brazil's Supreme Federal Court that challenges the use of force by Rio police in Brazil's informal shantytowns, known as favelas. Luciana de Janiero in Rio de Janiero; Lisandra Paraguassu, Brasilia; and Lucinda Elliot in Montevideo. Additional reporting by Ricardo Brito in Brasilia. Brad Haynes, Michael Learmonth and Brad Haynes edited the story.
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UN: Wildfires and rising temperatures threaten forests in the northern hemisphere
A new U.N. study said that record wildfires in combination with rising temperatures could turn vital carbon sinks like forests into carbon emitters. According to a report released by the U.N. Economic Commission for Europe ahead of the COP30 Climate Conference in Brazil, forests in Europe, North America and Central Asia have slowed their ability absorb carbon dioxide. It warned that if current trends continue these forests may reach a tipping-point where they start releasing more CO2 than they can absorb. The Paris Agreement targets a reduction of CO2 emissions in order to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. These forests offset a large portion of the human-produced emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels, and deforestation. About half of the carbon stored in the world is found in forests located in the northern hemisphere. ARCTIC BOREAL WOODS VULNERABLE In a press release, UNECE Executive Secretary Tatiana Molcean stated that "the message is clear": what we have achieved in the past three decades now faces serious risks from the climate crisis. The report highlights the vulnerability and large amount of carbon stored in the Arctic boreal forest, which contains nearly half the world's old-growth, primary woodland. The forests are under threat from wildfires and rising temperatures. According to the report, the northern hemisphere is home to nearly half of the world's primary woodland and over 42 percent of the forest. However, it is becoming increasingly vulnerable to pests, fires, and drought. A study by the Joint Research Centre of the European Union found that forests in Europe will absorb nearly a third less CO2 per year between 2020-22 and 2010-14. Molcean stated, "We can't afford to lose our planet's strongest natural defense." The rising tide of fires and drought is pushing the forests to a critical point. The Brazilian government is launching the Tropical Forests Forever Fund at COP30 to help countries who commit to preserving forests. (Reporting and editing by Mark Heinrich; Additional reporting by Ali Withers, Olivia Le Poidevin).
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Sempra tops quarterly profit estimates on Texas investments; California units target savings
Sempra, a Texas-based energy infrastructure company, beat third quarter profit expectations on Wednesday. Growing investments in its Texas utility drove the results, while California units streamlined operations to improve efficiency due to regulatory changes. Following the results, shares of the company increased by 2% on premarket trading. According to LSEG data, the San Diego-based firm reported an adjusted profit of $1.11 for the three-month period ended September 30. This beat analysts' average estimates of 91c per share. Sempra Texas's utility Oncor, which continues to expand its grid in order to meet the rising demand for power from industrial customers and North Texas data centers, was a major contributor to these results. Oncor, which has a capital plan of $36 billion for the years 2025-2029, expects to increase its spending by over 30% in its subsequent five-year plan 2026-2030. This will be to meet rising electricity demand. Oncor's active interconnection large commercial and industry queue at quarter-end included more than 600 requests. This is an increase of approximately 60% over last year. Sempra expects to sell a planned 45% stake in Sempra Infrastructure Partners by the end of next year to KKR affiliates, as part of its efforts to simplify and strengthen its balance sheets. Sempra Infrastructure reached a final decision in the second phase of Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 during the third quarter. Long-term agreements for offtake were already in place. The unit is working on six major projects along the Pacific and Gulf Coasts of North America. California's San Diego Gas & Electric Co. (SDGE) & Southern California Gas Co. (SoCalGas Co.) have applied to state regulators in order to save money. SDGE intends to discontinue certain energy efficiency programs in order to reduce administrative costs, while SoCalGas plans to close all of its remaining branch office and transition to a digital first service model. These changes will save customers over $300 million between the years 2026-2031. (Reporting by Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru; Editing by Shreya Biswas)
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Sources say that the EU will approve ADNOC's Covestro agreement in the coming weeks.
People with direct knowledge of this matter expect that the EU will approve the ADNOC bid of 14.7 billion euros ($17 billion) for the German chemicals firm Covestro within the next few weeks. According to a Wednesday update, the European Commission, EU's competition enforcer reopened its investigation on the deal on 24 October after stopping it on 3 September while awaiting requested information. The new deadline is March 2. ADNOC offered last month to amend its articles of Association to address EU concerns about its unlimited state guarantees, and pledged to maintain Covestro’s intellectual property in Europe. The company then tweaked this element in response to feedback from customers and rivals. People said that the Commission will likely sign off on the agreement this month. However, timing may still change. ADNOC’s international investment arm stated that "XRG will not comment on current regulatory issues and continues to work constructively with the Commission." ADNOC has acquired Covestro, its largest acquisition to date. It is also one of the biggest foreign takeovers by a Gulf State of a company in the EU. This deal has raised EU concerns about the possibility that state subsidies were used.
Wetherspoon is cautious about sales growth ahead of UK Budget
British pub chain JD Wetherspoon announced a slowdown of recent sales growth Wednesday. The company warned that the industry would suffer if the budget for this month repeats the mix of tax hikes and wage increases from last year.
Even value-oriented players like Wetherspoons struggle to attract customers due to cost-of living pressures.
In order to maintain control over public finances, UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves will likely announce tax increases in her budget on November 26, breaking her promise from last year not to repeat revenue-raising measures.
Wetherspoons chairman Tim Martin said that the company was on the alert for any tax increases, no matter how disguised. The company has adopted a cautious outlook for this year.
Wetherspoons is expected to pay 9 million pounds (7 million pounds) in this year's budget due to recent increases in energy prices.
Martin said that a 10% wage increase would result in a 15-penny price hike in pubs but only 1.5 pennies in supermarkets. He argued that the rising cost gap is widening and driving customers away.
The pub group known as Spoons has invested in gardens and outdoor seating to attract customers.
Wetherspoons' shares fell 1.2% to 634 pence at 1305 GMT.
Analysts are especially concerned about Wetherspoons’ exposure to labour costs, as well as gaming machine duties. According to Peel Hunt analysts the staff wages account for around 40% of sales and high-margin games provide a buffer to other cost pressures.
Martin stated that the government acknowledged the pressures on the hospitality sector "so, we hope they will leave pub gaming machines alone".
The company that runs over 800 pubs across the UK and Ireland reported a 3.7% increase in sales like-for-like in the 14-week period ending November 2. This was driven by bar sales as well as sales of gaming machines.
This is down from the 5.1% growth of the 12 previous weeks.
(source: Reuters)