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Indonesia Q2 GDP exceeds expectations, with the fastest growth in 2 years

Indonesia's growth rate in the second quarter was higher than expected. It showed the highest pace since the 2nd quarter of 2023. However, economists say that more support is needed to maintain growth for the remainder of the year.

The statistics bureau reported on Tuesday that the gross domestic product increased to 5.12%, up from 4.87% the previous quarter. This was higher than the 4.80% growth forecast by a poll.

Radhika Rao, economist at DBS Bank, said that the GDP growth surprised them in the second quarter. The difference was likely due to a positive net exports balance as a result of frontloading.

The pace of growth defied fears about weakening indicators such as falling car sales, a softer consumer confidence, and a contracting purchasing manager's index. These had all pointed to a slowdown in activity.

Bank Indonesia, who has cut its policy rates four time since September, predicted that the economic growth for this year would range from 4.6% to 5,4%.

The second quarter saw a slight increase in household spending, which accounts for over half of Indonesia’s GDP. This was due to higher food and travel spending during religious holidays, as well as a school holiday.

Moh, Deputy Chief of Statistics Indonesia, said that the growth in investment reached a record high of 6.99%, compared to 2.12%, during the second quarter. This was largely due to infrastructure projects, including the expansion and modernization of the mass rapid transit system of Jakarta. Edy Mahmud said. The government's spending has decreased by 0.33% annually.

Exports of metals, electronic products, auto parts, and vegetable oil were all boosted.

Exports have increased in value during the first half of this year due to buyers trying to beat the U.S. Tariffs.

Brian Lee, economist at Maybank warns that the trade surplus may narrow even further as exports slow and global trade falls on demand for Indonesian's main commodities.

Lee stated that "we expect another 50 bps in rate cuts before the end of the year, while government plans have been laid out to introduce a 3rd package of stimulus at year's end.

Rao, from DBS, also predicts a slower pace of exports. She said, "We still expect moderation (in) the second-half due to payback in trade."

According to Statistics Indonesia, the gross domestic product grew 4.04% on a quarter-on-quarter, non-seasonally-adjusted basis in April-June.

Airlangga hartarto, Indonesia's Senior Economic Minister, said at a press briefing that the government would continue to provide fiscal support for growth in second half. This will include extending tax breaks on homes up to a certain value until December and offering airfare discounts to encourage holiday spending.

Jakarta is also planning to give incentives for industries that require a lot of labour by offering investment credits for revitalising machinery, and low-interest loans for certain home builders.

Airlangga has not provided the amount of incentives for the second half. However, Jakarta announced 24.4 trillion Rupiah (1.49 billion dollars) in the first half.

(source: Reuters)