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HSBC increases average gold price forecasts 2025 and 26

HSBC increased its forecast for 2025 gold prices to $3.215 from $3.015 and that of 2026 to $3.125 from $2.915, citing elevated risk and government debt.

Gold is more likely to rise in value during times of geopolitical and economic tension. This helped spot gold reach a record-high of $3,500.05 per ounce at the end of April.

On Tuesday, spot gold traded at $3.348.50/oz as of 1146 GMT.

In a Tuesday note, the bank stated that it expects a volatile and wide trading range between $3,600 and 3,100/oz throughout the remainder of the year, and prices at year-end of $3.175/oz in 2025, and $3.025/oz in 2026.

Despite divisions in the Republican Party, U.S. Senate Republicans were still working to pass the tax-cut and spending bill of President Donald Trump despite the expected $3.3 trillion impact on the nation's debt.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has warned that as the deadline of July 9 approaches, countries may be informed about sharply increased tariffs.

HSBC stated that, even if the gold price eases, levels above $3000 an ounce have strengthened gold's role of a safe haven as well as a portfolio diversifier.

The central bank's gold purchase will be reduced if gold continues to rise above $3,300. It could also increase if gold falls below $3,000.

The bank warned that further increases in gold prices above $3,500 would likely lead to a reduction in demand for jewellery, coins and small bars, especially in countries like India and China. Reporting by Anushree mukherjee in Bengaluru and Ishaan arora, Editing by Jan Harvey & David Goodwin

(source: Reuters)