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Fastmarkets predicts that China will surpass Australia by 2026 as the world's largest lithium miner.

Fastmarkets has forecast that China will surpass Australia by the end of next year as the top producer of lithium for battery use. Its market dominance is also expected to increase through 2035, even though many Chinese producers are still unprofitable. These projections highlight Beijing's dominance in the global metals industry. China is the largest miner and refiner of over half the minerals deemed critical by the U.S. Geological Survey.

Paul Lusty said, "China has a very specific strategy for developing its mineral resources" on the sidelines at the Fastmarkets Lithium and Battery Raw Materials Conference, held in Las Vegas. Since taking over the top spot from Chile, Australia is now the largest lithium producer in world. However, Australian miners have cut back on production or delayed expansions due to a drop in global lithium prices.

Fastmarkets estimates that Chinese miners will likely extract between 8,000 and 10,000 more metric tonnes of lithium next year than their Australian counterparts. This would be a significant jump from 2023 when China was the third largest lithium producer in the world.

According to forecasts, Chinese miners will likely extract 900,000.00 metric tonnes of lithium by 2035. This compares to Australia's 680,000.000 metric tonnage, Chile's 435,000.000 tonnage, and Argentina's 380.000.000 tonnage. China's growth is largely due to the mining of lepidolite ore, a hard rock ore that is abundant in the south of the country.

Lepidolite mining in China is more expensive than lithium extraction from brines of salt. It can also cause greater environmental damage due to toxic byproducts like thallium or tantalum, which pollute water sources.

China's miners of lithium have resisted cutting production because they are supported by the Chinese government and "pressured" to keep their operations open, thus preserving local jobs. They also want to maintain a market share, as the demand for the metal is increasing, Lusty explained.

He said: "This continued production, despite the lackluster profitability in the market, starts to make more sense when you take all these factors into consideration." Chinese battery giant CATL, one of the world's largest lepidolite producers, paused production in a major mine last September and resumed output in February. China has held a 70% share of the global ultralight metal market for many years, despite its mining. The metal is refined into a form which can be used in batteries.

Fastmarkets predicts that other countries' efforts to increase their own lithium refinery will reduce China's share of the market to 60% by 2035.

According to LG Energy Solutions, China is also a leader in the electric vehicle industry. More than 60% of all EVs sold globally last year were produced there. (Reporting and editing by Leslie Adler; Ernest Scheyder)

(source: Reuters)