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Australia's central Bank cuts rates to a 2-year low of 3,85%

Australia's central Bank cuts rates to a 2-year low of 3,85%

The central bank of Australia cut its cash rate on Tuesday by 25 basis points, to a new two-year low. It cited a bleaker global outlook as well as a cooling in domestic inflation. However, it remained cautious about further easing.

The Australian dollar dropped 0.4% to $0.6429. Three-year bond futures increased 2 ticks to $96.37. Swaps suggest a total of 57 basis point easing by the end the year.

The Reserve Bank of Australia concluded a two-day meeting by stating that the risks of inflation rising had decreased, while the international economy was expected to be affected by the developments abroad.

The markets had already priced in an easing, given the slowdown of inflation at home as well as a darker outlook for global trade following the announcement last month of U.S. import tariffs.

The board stated that "Inflation has fallen into the target range and downside risks have decreased as the international economy is expected to be impacted by the developments."

The board believes that this will reduce the restrictions on monetary policy. The board is still cautious about the future.

In the first quarter, headline consumer price inflation was unchanged at 2.4%. A key measure of core inflation (the trimmed average) slowed down to 2.9% and returned to the RBA target range of 2%-3% for the very first time since the end of 2021.

The global landscape has dramatically changed since the RBA's last meeting in April.

The global trade war of U.S. president Donald Trump has upset financial markets and disrupted business plans. Trump has imposed blanket import duties of 10% on the rest the world. After a tariff showdown that threatened global recession, Trump and China agreed to reduce the high duties placed on their goods for 90-days.

Australia exports a lot of resources to China. Tariffs on China's economy, the second largest in the world, could slow down its growth and reduce demand for commodities like iron ore.

The data flow has been mixed at home. Consumer spending is not rebounding as expected. The labour market remained strong, though, and the unemployment rate stayed low at 4,1%, where it has been for more than a year.

The first quarter saw a rise in wages, but this was mainly due to increases in government salaries and shouldn't lead to a spiral of rising prices.

The RBA said on Tuesday that global trade tensions would have a cascading effect, resulting in lower inflation and higher unemployment. This was even if interest rates were not cut as much as the markets had expected.

(source: Reuters)