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Andy Home: Bearish funds turn away from volatile copper and towards aluminium

Andy Home: Bearish funds turn away from volatile copper and towards aluminium

Fund managers have been hit hard by the price volatility that has resulted from U.S. tariffs on imports of copper.

Since February when U.S. president Donald Trump ordered a probe into copper imports, the copper market has been dominated by the premium that the CME U.S. price commands over the London Metal Exchange (LME)'s international price.

The trade has been volatile and the price gap between the US and Europe has undermined the traditional investment role of Doctor Copper as a proxy to the state in global manufacturing.

Many fund managers simply gave up. Investor positioning and open interest in the CME Copper contract has dropped dramatically over the past couple of months.

Others have turned to aluminium in order to express their negative views of the global trade situation.

HEADLINE TURBULENCE

Money managers were evenly divided between long and shorter bets when they began the year. Fund positioning on CME copper contracts amounted 134,000 contracts.

According to the latest Commitments of Traders Report, the total participation has decreased to 82,000 contracts. Investors are now net long at 24,780 contracts.

Trading on the CME copper contract dropped 35% year-over-year in the period January-April, while the market open interest reached a new low of one year at the end last month.

It's not surprising that copper is still in the news, given the fact that the investigation under Section 232 into U.S. Imports has been ongoing for a long time.

The constant stream of headlines about the copper tariff as well as the wider tariff standoff with China have turned the trading of metals into a wild ride. This is especially true for the CME contract.

Many investors have reduced exposure to risk, either voluntarily or involuntarily.

Funds that expected copper prices to drop due to trade tariffs impacting global growth were particularly hard-hit. Money manager short positions are at their lowest level since November 2022.

Bulls are also not raging. Since the middle of April, the collective investment's long position has flattened.

ALUMINIUM UNDER THE HAMMER

No indications exist that money from the CME is now on the London copper markets. Fund positioning for LME copper has also been reduced due to a decline in both bullish and bearish bets.

Money managers who want to convey a negative macro-picture have instead focused their attention on aluminium.

The CME aluminium contract does not reflect the LME international product but is instead a U.S.-cleared customs price.

The CME's U.S. Midwest Physical Premium Contract is the only place where the trade in tariffs can be done.

This has prompted funds to increase their short positions in LME aluminum to the highest level since July last year. Investors have also slashed their bets for higher aluminium prices. This has resulted in a net fund position that is now neutral, having been super-bullish just a few months ago.

Divergent Fortunes

Recent price differences between copper and aluminium can be explained by the rotation of funds from copper to aluminum.

LME's three-month copper is now back to its previous $9,500/metric ton price after a 17% increase from the lows of April 7.

LME aluminium, on the other hand, has recovered a modest 6% from April's sell-off. The price of three-month metal has fallen by 4% since the beginning of the year, and is now trading at around $2450. It is the second weakest performer in the LME base metals, after zinc.

Bears may still have a rough time with aluminium. LME warehouse inventories are steadily decreasing, time-spreads were contracted in the last month and the benchmark cash to three-months period flirted with a backwardation.

However, fund managers still feel that it's a lot safer than trying to ride a copper roller coaster.

These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.

(source: Reuters)