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Elliott says Phillips 66 shares could reach $200 if there are changes
Elliott Investment Management stated on Thursday that Phillips 66 stock could almost double to $200 if it sold or spun off its midstream businesses, and focused more on refining. The activist investor who owns a stake of $2.5 billion in the company has also reduced the number to four directors that it intends to nominate for the board. Previously, the number was seven. Phillips 66, in a letter to shareholders published in a regulatory filing on Thursday, wrote: "With resolute action and decisive actions, Phillips 66 will deliver much greater returns to its shareholders than they have in the past decade." The hedge fund said that "sweeping changes" are also needed to the company’s structure, operations and board. Elliott nominated 7 director candidates for the board at the beginning of March, but had planned to reduce that number to 4, according to a person with knowledge in the matter. Investors will vote for directors on the 21st of May unless both sides come to an agreement prior. Candidates include former ConocoPhillips executives Sigmund and Brian Coffman; Michael Heim, founder of midstream operator Targa Resources, and Stacy Nieuwoudt. Nieuwoudt was a former energy consultant at Citadel. Elliott stated that new independent directors were needed to oversee management better and to persuade BP to sell or spin off its midstream business in order to concentrate on refining. The company has also been criticized for its governance in which not all directors are elected annually. The company refused to comment. Phillips 66's shares closed at $107.18, down 13.6% after a widespread sell-off on Wall Street. The company now has a $43.7 billion market value. Elliott reiterated his long-held opinion that the midstream business should be spun off or sold. The letter also suggested that retail operations in Europe and its interest in CPChem (a joint venture between Chevron and CPChem) should be sold. Elliott is fighting Phillips 66 for the second time after pushing for strategic improvements late in 2023. The hedge fund approved the appointment of Robert Pease as a director to the company's board in early 2024. The tensions between the activist investor and the director have now escalated after Pease, in a letter sent to shareholders last Thursday, defended the performance of the company and referred to Elliott's actions as "inconsistent" and "peculiar." The hedge fund wants to replace him by the candidates that it nominated in this year. In a letter sent to its shareholders on Thursday, Elliott said that it was confused after Pease failed to follow the best governance practices he had promised the hedge fund. It said that it had been patient with Phillips 66, and only approached the company anew after failing to see "demonstrable improvements." Reporting by Svea Autumn-Bayliss and Vallari Srivastava, both in New York; editing by Shrey Biswas and Jamie Freed
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Dollar falls amid Trump tariffs, as fears of recession fuel US stock market decline
The dollar fell on Thursday as U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs caused investors to flee for safe havens like bonds and yen. S&P 500 companies have lost $2.4 trillion combined in market value. This is their largest one-day drop since the global coronavirus pandemic began on March 16, 2019. Nasdaq composite index led declines Wall Street ended the day with a 5.97% decline, its largest daily drop since March 2020. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Dow Jones Industrial Average also posted their largest daily percentage drops since June 2020. The new 10% baseline tariff on imported products and the retaliatory tariffs that Trump imposed on dozens countries with unfair trade barriers shook traders. Investors are concerned that a full-blown dispute over trade could lead to a global economic slowdown, and even inflation. The latest round of U.S. tariffs has hit a world economy still recovering from the inflation spike after the pandemic and dealing with geopolitical tensions. Peter Tuz of Chase Investment Counsel, Charlottesville, Virginia, said: "Markets plunged today. I view it as an almost complete reset of how investors will think going forward." The market is lowering expectations for revenue and earnings in the U.S. and around the world. The market reflects reduced growth, decreased earnings, and reduced revenue. Apple shares fell by 9.2% due to the tariffs imposed on China, where the company does most of its manufacturing. Amazon.com fell 9%, Microsoft dropped 2.4%, while Nvidia dropped 7.8%. The S&P 500 Technology index dropped 6.9%. S&P 500's energy sector fell 7.5% with oil prices dropping more than 6% in a single day. The CBOE Volatility Index, also known as Wall Street’s Fear Gauge, has risen to 30,02, its highest level since August 5, 2020. The Dow dropped 1,679.39, or 3.98% to 40,545.93. The S&P 500 fell 274.45, or 4.84% to 5,396.52 while the Nasdaq Composite fell 1,050.44 or 5.97% to 16,550.61. MSCI's global stock index fell 28.47, or 3.41% to 807.64. This was its largest daily percentage drop since June 2022. U.S. dollar Also, the dollar weakened dramatically. The dollar dropped 1.95% to 146.445 Japanese yen and fell 2.35% to the Swiss franc. RECIPROCAL LEVY The 27-country EU block in Europe now faces a reciprocal 20% levy. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index fell by 2.57%. Trump's tariffs were particularly harsh on Asia. China received a reciprocal tariff of 34%, Japan was hit by 24%, South Korea with 25%, and Vietnam with 46%. Nigel Green is the CEO of deVere Group, a global financial advisory firm. He said: "This is what you do when you claim to supercharge the economic engine of the world." The rush to buy ultra-safe government securities that guarantee a steady income has driven down U.S. Treasury rates. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury bill in the United States fell 14.6 basis points, to 4,049%. It had previously fallen to 4.004%. This was its lowest level since November 25. The yield of the 10-year Treasury note is on course for its largest daily decline since August 2. The yields on government bonds in the Eurozone fell, with Germany's 10-year bond yield, which is the benchmark for the region, reaching its lowest level since March 4. If tariffs cause recessions, the central banks of the world will likely lower interest rates. This is good for bonds. Fitch, a credit rating agency, warned that they could be a game-changer for the U.S. economy and global economies. Deutsche Bank said it was a moment "once in a life time" which could reduce U.S. economic growth by 1%-1.5% this year. Oil prices Dropped After Trump announced his new trade tariffs, OPEC+ agreed on a surprise production increase. Brent futures ended at $70.14 per barrel, down by $4.81 or 6.42%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures ended at $66.95 per barrel, down by $4.76 or 6.64%. Gold reached a record-high above $3,160 per ounce but then lost steam. Last, spot gold fell 0.85% to $3,106.99 per ounce.
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Exxon says higher gas and oil prices will boost profits in Q1
Exxon Mobil said on Thursday that the higher prices of crude oil, natural gas and oil refining will boost its first-quarter profits by $900 million over the previous quarter. Exxon Mobil, the largest U.S. energy company, gets most of its operating profits from oil and gas production. Its earnings snapshot is closely monitored for clues as to how the industry will do when companies report quarterly results in the next few weeks. Benchmark Brent crude averaged $74.98 per barrel in the first quarter. This was up 1.3% compared to the previous quarter but down by 9% compared to a year earlier. U.S. Natural Gas prices increased 30% from the fourth quarter, due to a higher demand caused by a colder winter in the U.S. In a SEC filing, the company stated that higher oil refining margins would also boost earnings from $300 million to $700 millions compared to fourth quarter. According to estimates compiled LSEG by LSEG analysts expect Exxon will post an adjusted profit per share of $1.70 in the first three months, up from the $1.67 in the previous quarter. Exxon announced that it would announce its first-quarter results on May 2, 2018. The snapshot of earnings covers a turbulent first quarter, during which the Trump administration in the United States announced tariffs against energy imports from Canada or Mexico and then reversed them. In March, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries announced that it would increase oil production for the first since 2022. Exxon's earnings for the fourth quarter were $7.39 billion and the earnings for the first quarter last year were $8.22 billion. Exxon shares rose slightly in extended trading after closing 5.3% lower, tracking sharp drops in crude prices. This was after OPEC+ agreed on a surprise rise in production a day after Trump's announcement of new import tariffs. Reporting by Vallari Shrivastava from Bengaluru, and Sheila Dang from Houston; editing by Shreya biswas and Jamie Freed
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The US offers billions in Congo mineral investment after tariffs
President Donald Trump’s senior advisor for Africa revealed during a Thursday visit that the United States was in talks with Congo to invest billions in the mineral-rich country and to end a conflict that is raging there. The Democratic Republic of Congo has huge reserves of cobalt and lithium, among other minerals. It has been fighting Rwandan-backed M23 Rebels, who have taken over large areas of its territory in this year. The U.S., which on Wednesday sent shockwaves across the world by announcing a 10% baseline tariff on all imports, said last month that it is open to exploring critical minerals partnerships with Congo after a Congolese senator contacted U.S. officials to pitch a minerals-for-security deal. You have heard of a mineral agreement. After meeting Congo President Felix Tshisekedi, U.S. Senior Advisor Massad Boulos stated that the U.S. had reviewed the Congo proposal and "the president and I agreed on a way forward for its future development". On Thursday, the details of any possible deal or Congo's offer were not made public. The minerals of Congo, which are used to make mobile phones and electric vehicles, are currently controlled by China and Chinese mining companies. Boulos said that U.S. firms will be involved. Rest assured that American companies will operate transparently, and stimulate local economies. "These are multi-billion dollar investments," he stated. Joseph Bangakya is a Congolese MP and the president of a Congo - U.S. friendship group. He said that members were preparing legislation to improve the business climate in Central Africa. He said that achieving a trade deal with the United States was essential. Boulos said that the U.S. wanted to help bring peace to the east, where M23 has taken over two of eastern Congo's largest cities and thousands have died. He said, "We want to have a lasting peace which affirms the territorial and sovereign integrity of the DRC." "There is no economic prosperity without safety." (Written by Edward McAllister, edited by Mark Heinrich and Portia crowe)
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Canada's response to US tariffs
Mark Carney, the Canadian Prime Minister, announced on Thursday limited countermeasures against U.S. car tariffs. He imposed a 25% tax on vehicles imported from America that do not comply with the U.S. Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement. Carney, the man who succeeded Justin Trudeau last month as Prime Minister, stated that new tariffs will not apply to auto components and won't affect vehicle content coming from Mexico. Carney said that the new tariffs, which are estimated at C$8 billion, before a remission procedure for tariff relief will be paid directly to autoworkers and other affected parties. Donald Trump, the president of the United States, imposed tariffs of 25% on March 6 on all goods that were not in compliance with USMCA. On March 12, he imposed tariffs for steel and aluminum imports. A 25% import tax was implemented on autos on Thursday. He spared Canada global tariffs. Here are the retaliatory actions that Canada has already taken. First, Trudeau responded to Trump's initial tariffs by imposing 25% tariffs on C$30 Billion ($20.92 Billion) worth of goods imported from the U.S. annually on March 6. The C$30billion was part of a broader retaliation strategy that targeted C$155billion worth of U.S. goods imports, although the remaining C$125billion has been delayed. The first round of retaliation includes 1,256 items, including orange juice, peanutbutter, wine, spirits and beer, coffee and other beverages, as well as apparel, footwear and motorcycles. The value of imported products is C$3.5 billion for cosmetics and skin care, C$3.4 billion for appliances and household goods, C$3 billion for pulp and paper, and C$1.8 billion in plastics. Steel and aluminum tariffs will be imposed by Canada on March 13, 2025. The additional C$29,8 billion in imports from the U.S. will receive a 25% tariff. The tariffs are expected to stay in place until U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs against Canada are eliminated. Tariffs on steel and aluminum include a variety of products, including candles, glues and umbrellas, as well as kitchenware, gold and platinum jewellery, and other items. Trudeau said Canada was also considering non-tariff retaliatory actions, which could be related to vital minerals, energy procurement or other partnerships. Carney responded on March 25, when asked if nontariff measures like export controls or export taxation were on the table. Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced that all U.S. companies would be prohibited from participating in government contracts. Ontario has canceled its C$100m contract with Trump's ally Elon Musk and Starlink. Canada has frozen Musk's Tesla rebate payments and barred the electric vehicle maker from participating in future EV rebates. Toronto has stopped offering financial incentives to Tesla owners who purchase vehicles as taxis or ride-sharing services due to trade tensions with America.
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Market rout wipes out gains from hedge funds that use equity long/short strategies
On Thursday, global equity long/short funds lost their gains of the year as stocks plummeted after the Trump Administration announced sweeping tariffs. Goldman Sachs reported that the funds had fallen by 1.7% on the day. Long/short hedge fund performance was down 1.6% on the year as of Thursday. Losses by hedge funds on March 10 are the second big bump in one month. These funds take long positions and bet against other stocks. The funds fell by 1.5% in the morning hours of March 10, after portfolio managers unwound trades on single stocks amid fears that tariffs could send the economy into a recession. Hedge funds have already turned bearish with their pessimism A separate Goldman note last week said that the market is at a five-year high. The bank's use of leverage was still high and near record levels over the last five years. On Thursday, the tariffs shook global financial markets. The dollar and U.S. stock prices tumbled as investors fled to safe havens. S&P 500 fell 4.16% last, while Nasdaq dropped 5.3%.
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GLOBAL-MARKETS-Stocks sell off, US dollar weakens as Trump tariffs fuel economic worries
Stock indexes fell on Thursday with the S&P 500 falling more than 4 percent, the U.S. Dollar weakened, and oil prices dropped more than 6 percent as Donald Trump's U.S. tariffs caused investors to flee for safe havens like bonds and yen. The new 10% baseline tariff on imported products, plus the eye-watering tariffs that Trump imposed on dozens countries he claimed had unfair trade barriers, left traders frightened by their severity. Investors are concerned that a full-blown dispute over trade could lead to a global economic slowdown, and even inflation. The latest round of U.S. tariffs has hit a world economy still recovering from the inflation spike after the pandemic and is also dealing with geopolitical tensions. The euro rose by 1.53% against the dollar dollar . The dollar fell by 2.07% against the Japanese yen to 146.15. The Nasdaq fell more than 5% on the day, with shares related to technology being amongst the biggest drags. Apple's stock dropped 9.2% as a result of tariffs imposed on China, the country where it does most of its manufacturing. Amazon.com fell 7.9%, Microsoft dropped 1.5% and Nvidia fell 6.9%. As worries have grown, the losses are on top of trillions already lost by the "Magnificent Seven", tech giants. CBOE Volatility Index, also known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, reached a new three-week high of 26.91 points. Oil prices dropped and the S&P 500's energy sector fell more than 6%. Bruce Zaro is the managing director of Granite Wealth Management, Plymouth, Massachusetts. Investors adjust their outlook based in part on the possible impact of tariffs, said he, adding that "we have seen and will continue to see drastic reductions in earning estimates." This is going to take a while. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1,317.59 or 3.12% to 40,909.33. The S&P 500 declined 227.17 or 4.01% to 5,443.80. And the Nasdaq Composite was down 912.44 or 5.18% to 16,688.61. The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 23.64 points or 2.83% to 812.47. RECIPROCAL LEVY The 27-country EU block in Europe now faces a reciprocal 20% levy. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index fell by 2.57%. Trump's tariffs were particularly harsh on Asia. China received a reciprocal tariff of 34%, Japan was hit by 24%, South Korea with 25%, and Vietnam with 46%. In response, Vietnamese stocks fell 6.7%. The Nikkei 225 index fell 2.8%. Nigel Green is the CEO of deVere Group, a global financial advisory firm. He said: "This is what you do when you claim to supercharge the economic engine of the world." Pham Minh Chinh, the Vietnamese Prime Minister, has pledged that the country will maintain its economic growth goal of at least 8 percent for this year despite the U.S. placing a heavy tariff on Vietnam's exports. The rush to buy ultra-safe government securities that guarantee a steady income has driven down U.S. Treasury rates. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury bill in the United States fell by 15.3 basis points, to 4.042%. It had previously fallen to 4.004%. This was its lowest level since October 16. The yield of the 10-year Treasury note is on course for its largest daily decline since August 2. The yields on government bonds in the Eurozone fell. Germany's benchmark 10-year yield dropped 7.5 basis points to 2.65% after reaching 2.625%. This was its lowest level since March 4. If tariffs cause recessions, the central banks of the world will likely lower interest rates. This is good for bonds. Fitch, a credit rating agency, warned that they could be a game-changer for the U.S. economy and global economies. Deutsche Bank said it was a moment "once in a life time" which could reduce U.S. economic growth by between 1%-1.5% this year. Olu Sonola, Fitch's director of U.S. Economic Research, said that many countries would likely be in a state of recession. If this tariff rate is maintained for a long time, you can forget about most forecasts. Fitch soon downgraded China’s credit rating citing steep U.S. Tariffs as the reason. The oil prices fell, with U.S. Crude down 6.5% to $67.05 per barrel and Brent down 6.24% at $70.27 a barrel. Gold reached a record-high above $3,160 per ounce but then lost steam. Spot gold fell 0.85% to $3,106.99 per ounce.
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Ecotourism helps revive mangroves in a Filipino surfing location
Del Carmen Mangrove Reserve is a new Ramsar Site Siargao is awash with illegal fishing and mangrove cutting Ecotourism and behaviour change are key to protecting the mangroves By Mariejo Ramos He was once an illegal fisher, who cut down tropical woody trees for fuel. Now he protects them in a civilian patrol force. We were forced to sell and cut mangroves because life was hard back then. "We couldn't find another job," Longos said. Workers like Longos are now part of the solution because the local government has been working to provide job training and cultivate an ecotourism enterprise. He proudly pointed out a mangrove baby he planted along the water. The mangroves in the area were reduced for decades by destructive fishing techniques like dynamite use and illegal deforestation to make wood for bread or charcoal. According to the local authorities, through replanting, the Del Carmen Mangrove Reserve has grown from 4,200 ha of mangroves to more than 4,800 ha. The Ramsar Convention on Wetlands (an international treaty named for the city in Iran, where it was signed, in 1971) that guides conservation of wetlands throughout the world, designated the reserve as a Wetland Reserve of International Importance in August 2024. Longos patrols the mangrove reserve from its viewing platform, earning him an honorarium each month of 9,000 pesos ($158). He uses his fishing boat to give paid tours of the mangrove reserve in his spare time. Del Carmen Mayor Alfred Coro says the stories of small town fishermen like Longos shows that even communities with limited resources can stop environmental destruction. He said that gaining the support of people through education, ecotourism opportunities and training is more important than policing. Coro said that for a long time, previous leaders in Del Carmen had been told it was impossible to persuade people to stop illegal mangrove harvesting and illegal fishing. He said that it took a decade for them to convince people of the importance of mangroves and to stop using illegal methods. He said that he was limited in financial resources and the majority of his efforts were done through dialogues between fishermen at their homes, as well as community-based campaigns to inform people about mangrove conservation. The local government started the tours, and now they are run by fishing groups. The tour fee is divided between the fisherman and his group, which amounts to about 600 pesos per trip. The town has been preparing for growth in tourism and development since last year when it was awarded the Ramsar certification. In 2023, more than half a millon tourists will visit Siargao, the highest number ever recorded. They are attracted to the impressive waves and surf spots in the area, which have been popular since the 1980s, when the sport began gaining popularity. SUSTAINABLE TOURISM Researchers fear that more visitors to Siargao could put strain on the natural resources of the island and cause waste problems such as plastic and marine debris. The Asian Development Bank found that an increase in Siargao waste is "attributable" to the surge of tourists. The study found that sustainable tourism could be implemented to protect marine life and support local incomes. Del Carmen's municipality has encouraged its residents to make money through eco-tours, and to take care of mangroves to ensure that tourism will support the community for a long time. Longos, a fisherman from the Philippines, was taught about mangroves' science and encouraged to participate in campaigns and replantings for their protection. Coro said that when they first started, "they had doubts." Since 2014, hundreds of illegal fishermen and mangrove cutters have become tourism operators. The town offers 100 ecotrips a day, says a local tourism official. These tours are staffed by guides, boat captains, and assistants. Coro said, "You can tell how much their lives have improved." The mayor stated that developing alternative sources of income has ripple effects on the local economy. Del Carmen, which was a town of the Philippines with the lowest level of income as a fifth-class municipality, became a third class municipality this year. Local government data revealed that the average monthly family income in Del Carmen increased from 2,000 pesos (34.95 USD) in 2010 up to 17,000 pesos (297.05 USD) in 2024. The poverty rate also decreased from 69% to 21% in 2010. The income of the town from tourism grew from 1.2 millions pesos (about $21,000) in 2020, to 9.2million pesos (about 160,381) by 2024. Longos says that by fishing legally and guiding ecotours he has been able to send all four of his children to school. Gina Barquilla said ecotours prevent overfishing, which may destroy mangroves habitats, because the income from tours encourages people to spend less money catching fish. A Task for the Community Barquilla said that mangroves in Siargao (a teardrop-shaped island) helped to protect the area from a powerful typhoon 2021. They also lessened the impact of strong waves and the rising sea level for coastal fishing villages. She has spent more than 10 years educating illegal fishermen and mangrove cutters at home and chasing dynamite fishing boats on the sea, despite threats and harassment. In rare cases, such as in February, fishermen have been arrested for using dynamite against schools of fish. She said that the best strategy is to go out and educate the local communities about the importance of mangroves, conservation and science. She and other ecotourism activists said that generations of families have survived off the money made from cutting mangroves. Therefore, educating youth is crucial, they said.
Canadian investors buy gold and uranium as the trade war threat grows
Canadian investors, fearing a possible trade war, are looking for protection in gold, and shares of companies that produce goods with limited substitutes such as uranium. They also want to profit from a weaker Canadian dollar and the expected volatility.
U.S. president Donald Trump has warned that he will implement a 25% tax on most Canadian imports by March. Steel and aluminum are also facing higher tariffs following new orders signed on Monday.
Tariffs pose a serious risk to Canada's economy, as 75% of Canada's exports go to the United States.
The S&P/TSX Composite index includes roughly two thirds of the Canadian stock market. These sectors are likely to be spared the direct effects of tariffs, or will benefit from exemptions.
Analysts say that if the Canadian economic system slips into a recession, earnings could suffer an indirect impact.
Since Trump's election on November 5, shares of companies that are sensitive to trade have suffered. Bombardier Inc., a planemaker, has fallen by about 19%, along with auto parts, lumber, and dairy products stocks.
Greg Taylor, portfolio manager at Purpose Investments, said that the uncertainty surrounding trade and geopolitical tensions had definitely brought gold back to the forefront.
Taylor explained that "we have added gold to our multi-asset fund portfolios as a way to offer both protection and absolute returns."
Toronto's Materials sector, which includes shares in metal mining companies, has gained nearly 15% so far this year. This includes a gain by 26.5% of shares in heavily-weighted Agnico, Eagle Mines, Ltd., as the demand for safe havens helped to drive gold prices to record highs.
Metals stocks, along with technology shares, have helped to keep the TSX near the record high set in January despite tariff threats.
Ben Jang is a portfolio manager for Nicola Wealth. He noted that the U.S. relies on Canadian oil and minerals, as well as uranium.
Nicola Wealth, a TSX listed company, owns shares in Cameco Corp. Cameco Corp. has retreated from its all-time December high but still managed to gain roughly 46% in value since early September.
"The U.S. is concerned about energy security, and has spoken of a focus on independence in energy. Jang stated that nuclear power was part of the solution.
Trade uncertainty has hit the Canadian dollar hard, with the currency touching a 22 year low of 1.4793 US dollars, or 67.60 U.S. Cents, last week.
Victor Kuntzevitsky is a portfolio manager for Stonehaven Private Counsel (part of Wellington-Altus Private Counsel).
Kuntzevitsky stated that many oil, gas and materials companies generate revenues in USD but incur costs in CAD. This creates an inherent currency benefit.
Bank of Canada’s campaign to lower interest rates has also had a negative impact on the Canadian dollar, but it could support the economy. Analysts say that government spending in impacted areas could also help.
Taylor stated that there is a lot being said about the trade war, and this creates some volatility. This will probably lead to some opportunities at the end.
(source: Reuters)