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Fears of supply disruption are driving up oil prices as a result of the Israel-Iran conflict
Early Asian trade on Monday saw oil prices rise after Israel and Iran launched new attacks on Sunday. This heightened fears of escalating conflict that could lead to a wider regional conflict, and disrupt Middle East oil exports. Brent crude futures rose $1.70 or 2.3% to $75.93 per barrel at 2253 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures gained $2.02 or 2.2% to $74.60. They were up more than $4 in the earlier part of the session. Both benchmarks closed 7% higher Friday after a session that saw them surge more than 13% to their highest level since January. Both militaries warned that the latest strikes between Israel, Iran and Syria resulted in civilian deaths and increased fears of a wider regional conflict. Recent developments have raised concerns over disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz A vital shipping passage. a fifth The strait is responsible for about 18-19 million barrels of oil per day, including fuel, condensate, and oil. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said Sunday that he hoped Israel and Iran could broker a deal. Stop the violence But sometimes, he said, countries must fight it out before they can work together. Trump stated that the U.S. would continue to support Israel, but refused to reveal if he had asked the U.S. allie to pause their strikes against Iran. Friedrich Merz, the German Chancellor, said that he was hopeful for a resolution to the conflict at the Group of Seven Leaders meeting in Canada this Sunday. An official who was briefed about the communications said that Iran had told Qatar and Oman it would not be open to negotiations for a ceasefire as long as Israel is attacking. The two enemies launched new attacks on Sunday and raised fears of an even wider conflict. Iran is a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and currently exports over 2 million barrels of fuel and oil per day. Analysts and OPEC observers say that the spare capacity of OPEC, its allies and Russia to pump more crude oil to offset disruptions is about equal to Iran's production. (Reporting and editing by Matthew Lewis in Tokyo, and Paul Simao.)
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US Export-Import Bank to consider $120 million loan for Greenland Rare Earths Project
Critical Metals Corp. has received a letter expressing interest from the U.S. Export-Import Bank for a loan of up to $120,000,000 to fund its Tanbreez Rare Earths Mine in Greenland. This would be the first investment by the Trump Administration in a mining venture overseas. If approved, the loan would increase U.S. accessibility to minerals that are increasingly important in global trade, and reduce the country's dependence on the market leader China. The loan comes as President Donald Trump publicly mused about acquiring Danish island territory earlier this year, an offer that was repeatedly rejected. A letter from Critical Metals, New York, on June 12, reviewed by showed that the company had met the initial requirements for applying for the $120,000,000 EXIM loan. If approved, the company would be able to repay the loan over a period of 15 years, which is longer than it would likely have been if the financing was private. According to the letter, to qualify for a loan the project must be "well capitalized with enough equity from strategic investors". EXIM, the U.S. export credit agency, stated in the letter Critical Metals qualified for a loan designed to help companies compete with China. Tanbreez is estimated to cost $290m and EXIM funds will be used to finance technical work to get the mine into initial production by 2026. Once the mine is fully operational, it will produce 85,000 tons of rare earths and two minor metals per year. Tony Sage, CEO of the company, said that this funding package would unlock significant value to our project and stakeholders. EXIM representatives were not available for comment immediately. Washington has taken a number of actions to support the Tanbreez deposit, and the Greenland mining industry. In January, it was reported that the administration of former president Joe Biden had successfully lobbied Tanbreez Mining to not sell to a Chinese investor and instead sell Critical Metals. Biden officials visited Nuuk in November last year to try and attract more private investment on the island. Trump sent Vice-President JD Vance on the island in March. In recent years, the island's mining industry has grown slowly due to a lack of investor interest, bureaucratic issues and environmental concerns. Only two small mines currently operate. Rare earths are used in high-tech industries, from electric vehicles to rocket systems. They have powerful magnetic properties. The West is trying to reduce its dependence on China, which controls almost all of the extraction and processing. Beijing instilled export restrictions on rare Earths in April as part of the trade dispute with Trump. In early April, the two countries reached a truce. However, Beijing's control over the sector has increased the West's dependence on the metal and caused a global search for new supplies. Critical Metals will still need to build a facility or locate an existing one with extra capacity despite the potential loan. The company stated that it aims to process material in the U.S. with the EXIM Loan. Critical Metals applied to the U.S. Department of Defense for funding last year in order to build a processing plant. However, the review process was halted before Trump's inauguration. Critical Metals has said that it will consider offtake agreements, royalties streams, and funding from U.S. government agencies to meet the additional funding needs of the EXIM Loan. Critical Metals announced earlier this year it had held talks about supply with Lockheed Martin, among other defense contractors. Cantor Fitzgerald is Critical Metals' 10th largest investor. Howard Lutnick was the former head of Cantor Fitzgerald before he became secretary of U.S. Commerce Department in Trump's Cabinet. Sage said in January that he never met Lutnick or spoke to him, but acknowledged Cantor’s investment as a positive. EXIM extended last year a letter to Perpetua Resources expressing interest in a loan of up to $1.8billion for its antimony mine and gold mine located in Idaho. Reporting by Ernest Scheyder, editing by Veronica Brown & Chizu Nomiyama
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US officials claim that Trump vetoed Israel's plan to kill Iran’s supreme leader.
Two U.S. officials said on Sunday that President Donald Trump had vetoed a plan by Israel to kill Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ayatollah Khamenei in the recent days. "Have Iranians yet killed an American? No. We're not going to go after them until they change," said a source, a senior U.S. government official. Under condition of anonymity the officials said that top U.S. officials were in constant communication with Israeli officials since Israel launched an attack on Iran to stop its nuclear program. The Israelis claimed that they reported to Trump that they had the opportunity to kill Iran's top leader. But Trump dismissed the plan. Officials refused to confirm whether Trump delivered the message himself. Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, have been in regular contact. In an interview with Fox News Channel’s “Special Report with Bret Baier” on Sunday, Netanyahu said, "There are so many false stories of conversations that have never taken place, and I won't get into that." "But I'm sure that we will do it," Netanyahu said. "I think that the United States know what is best for the United States," Netanyahu stated. Trump has expressed hope that U.S. and Iranian negotiations on Tehran's nuclear programme will resume. The strikes forced the cancellation of talks scheduled for Oman on Sunday. Trump said on Friday "We knew everything" About the Israeli strikes
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G7 leaders gather in Canada to avoid Trump clash
The Group of Seven Leaders will gather in the Canadian Rockies on Sunday, amid growing divisions between the United States and Canada over trade and foreign policy. Canada is trying to avoid any clashes with Trump. The conflicts in the Middle East, Ukraine and U.S. Tariffs are likely to be prominently discussed. Israel, an ally of the United States, launched a barrage on Iran's borders on Thursday. This was a blow for Trump's diplomatic efforts in preventing such an attack. The summit will be held in Kananaskis Mountain Resort, about 90 km (56 mi) west of Calgary. Last time Canada hosted the summit, Trump left before he had denounced Justin Trudeau at the time as "very dishonest" and "weak". He also instructed the U.S. delegation to withdraw their approval of the final communiqué. This will be a success meeting if Donald Trump does not have an explosion that disrupts the whole gathering. "Anything above that is gravy," declared Roland Paris, professor of international affairs at the University of Ottawa and former Trudeau's foreign policy advisor. Trump has frequently mused on annexing Canada. He arrives as Carney threatens retaliation if Washington doesn't lift the tariffs on aluminum and steel. The best-case scenario is that no major problems will arise in the future, said Josh Lipsky. He was a former White House official and State Department official and chair of the Atlantic Council's international economics department. Carney's Office declined to comment on the impact of the Israeli strikes on the summit. NO JOINT CONMUNIQUE Diplomats say Canada is no longer interested in the traditional joint communique, and will instead issue brief chair summaries to contain a crisis and maintain engagement with the U.S. Senior Canadian officials told reporters Ottawa was interested in actions that the seven countries - Canada France Germany Italy Japan United Kingdom and United States could take together. Canadian Senator Peter Boehm said that he was told that the summit would be longer than usual in order to allow time for bilateral meetings between the U.S. President and Canadian senator. Among the expected guests at parts of Sunday's event are leaders from Ukraine and Mexico, as well as India, Australia, South Africa South Korea, Brazil, and South Korea. Boehm told Boehm by phone that "many will want the opportunity to speak to President Trump regarding their particular concerns and interests." On Friday, a senior U.S. government official stated that the working discussions will cover trade, global economics, vital minerals, drug and migrant smuggling as well as wildfires. Other topics include international security, artificial intelligent, energy security and security of natural resources. The official stated that "the president is eagerly pursuing his goals in these areas, including making America's trading relationships fair and reciprocal." The visit by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in the Oval Office, in February, descended into bitterness and served as a warning to other world leaders on the delicate dance that they will have to perform in order for them negotiate with Trump. Diplomats have said that the frustration they feel in dealing with Trump's administration has made them more assertive. Canada has been a vocal supporter of Ukraine for many years. Trump promised to end the Russian war within 24 hours when he came to power, but diplomatic efforts have failed to resolve the conflict. A Ukrainian official who was involved in the preparations for this summit stated that hope for a strong support for Ukraine had faded. Success for Kyiv will be a meeting between Trump Zelenskiy. An official from Europe said that the G7 Summit and the NATO Summit in The Hague in later June offered an opportunity for Trump to be reminded of the importance of pushing forward with the sanctions bill drafted by U.S. Senators, along with a new European package designed to pressure Russia to a ceasefire or broader discussions. Early Test Max Bergmann is a director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He said that Trump's first summit with foreign leaders will give some early clues as to whether Trump wants to work with allies in order solve problems. The big question is: Are the United States still committed towards formats such as the G7 format? Bergmann stated that the test will be "the big one". Emmanuel Macron, the French president, has stated that he enjoys a good relationship with Trump despite their differences in regards to Ukraine and climate change. Macron announced on Friday the postponement of a United Nations Conference co-hosted by France and Saudi Arabia to discuss a two state solution between Israel, and the Palestinians. The conference was scheduled for after the G7.
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Oil price volatility and the Israel-Iran conflict has investors on edge
Investors were nervous ahead of the markets' reopening on Sunday evening. The risks ranged from increased prospects of a wide Middle East conflict to U.S. protests against Donald Trump, which threatened further domestic chaos. Israel and Iran have launched new attacks against each other on Sunday. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israeli strikes will intensify, as Tehran has called off the nuclear talks which Washington had argued were the only way to stop the bombing. Yemen's Houthis, who are aligned with Iran, also joined the fray. The price of oil rose by 7% Friday as Israel and Iran exchanged strikes. Investors will be closely watching the market opening to see what happens. Samy Chaar is the chief economist at Lombard Odier. He said that we are still in a phase of "controlled confrontation" and it's too early to predict real economic damage, despite the high risks. He said: "For the moment, we are seeing spikes in oil prices, volatility and everyone is a little nervous. But there's no sign that the scenario of no return has arrived." Israel may have struck Iran's oil-and-gas industry for the very first time on Saturday. Iranian state media reported a fire at a gasfield. Israel's air assault against Iran, which began in the early hours of Friday morning, killed commanders, scientists, and bombed nuclear sites, all to prevent Tehran from building an atomic device, knocked down risky assets, including stocks, Friday. The air offensive also increased oil prices, and led to a rush for gold and dollars. For the first time since months, they were seen as safe-haven assets. The oil prices are at a six-month high, and this could be a threat to inflation as central banks across the globe grapple with Trump's tariffs on trade and their impact on the economy. Chaar, a Lombard Odier economist, said that a rise in oil prices shouldn't in theory affect monetary policy at this time. This is because any disruption in Iranian oil supply could be partially offset by increases in production elsewhere. Chaar added that the days of central banks raising rates due to a surge in oil prices are long gone. Instead, policymakers would be more likely to focus on the fundamentals of the economy and the drivers for demand. Investors remain nervous, however, as the S&P 500 has stalled out after rallying by about 20% since its April lows caused by trade wars to reach near-record highs. Alex Morris, Chief Investment Officer of F/m Investments Washington said: "The risk profile is too high to return to the market at this time." Meanwhile, Protests The "No Kings Coalition" has organised a protest against The policies of and the assassination The resignation of two Minnesota state legislators on Saturday has added to the negative mood. U.S. Stock Futures will resume trading on Sunday at 6 pm (2200 GMT). Investors' expectations of near-term market fluctuations jumped as risky assets fell. The Cboe Volatility Index (often called the "fear index" of Wall Street) rose 2.8 points on Friday to close at 20,82, its highest closing in three weeks. Michael Thompson, coportfolio manager of boutique investment firm Little Harbor Advisors said that he will be monitoring volatility futures near-term prices to see if they rise towards or above the levels for futures expiring in a few months. He said: "This would suggest to us that short-term hedging was warranted." Reporting by Saqib Ahmed and Linda Pasquini, Editing by Alden, Richard Chang and Amanda Cooper, Susan Fenton and Susan Fenton
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Macron visits Greenland as a sign of European resolve following Trump's annexation threat
French President Emmanuel Macron is visiting Greenland this Sunday in a show to Denmark of solidarity, and to send a message of European resolve following the threat by Donald Trump to seize control of the island. Greenland is an autonomous part of Denmark, with the right to declare its independence. Greenland's and Denmark's governments both say that it is not up for sale, and that only Greenlanders have the right to decide their own future. Donald Trump said that he wanted the United States take over the strategically located, mineral-rich Arctic island. He hasn't ruled out using force. In March, JDVance, his vice president, visited an American military base on the island. Macron was invited to Greenland by the Prime Ministers of Greenland, and Denmark. He is the first foreign leader since Trump's explicit threat to "get" Greenland. He said that his visit was to stop any "preying" of the territory. France has been with us ever since the first comments about taking our land were made. The support from France is both needed and appreciated," Greenland Prime Minister Jens Frederik Nielsen wrote days before Macron's arrival on Facebook. A Macron adviser told reporters that the trip was a message in and of itself, without mentioning Trump. On Sunday, Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said on RTL radio: "Greenland has a European character and it's normal for Europe and France to show interest." According to a IFOP survey for NYC.eu, published on Saturday 77% of French people and 56% Americans disapprove an annexation by the U.S. of Greenland. 43% of French would be in favor of using French military force to prevent an invasion by the U.S. Macron will also visit Nuuk's capital, a hydropower plant funded by the EU, a glacier and discuss Arctic climate change and security with his hosts. Greenland, though Denmark is a member of the EU, is not. The French advisor said that the visit was an opportunity to discuss ways to give Greenland’s association partnership with EU a “new dimension". Mette Frederiksen, the Danish Prime Minister, made several trips to Paris following Trump's threats of seeking French and European support. She has also placed orders for French surface-to air missiles in an effort to shift focus to Copenhagen. Florian Vidal, a think tank in Paris, IFRI, explained that Denmark's decision to enlist the EU's sole nuclear power was a way of projecting a hard power against a suddenly aggressive United States. He said that the Trump administration's aggressiveness is a shock, which makes the French vision of Europe more reasonable to Denmark. From a Nordic perspective, France is an important military power. (Reporting from Michel Rose in Paris, Stine Jacobsen at Copenhagen; Additional reporting by Andreas Rinke and Dominique Vidalon; Editing by Sophie Walker.
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Russian news agencies reported that Russia had handed Ukraine 1,200 more bodies of war dead.
Russian state media reported that Russia handed Ukraine 1,200 more bodies of Ukrainian soldiers who died in the war on Sunday. Moscow, they said, had not received any Russian corpses in return. Both Russian state-run news agencies TASS (Russian) and RIA (Russian) reported the transfer, citing a source that was not named. This is the fourth of a series in which remains of soldiers have been handed over in the last week. The agreement was reached by Russia and Ukraine during talks held in Istanbul at the beginning of this month. Kyiv agreed to hand over 6,000 bodies, and exchange prisoners of war who were severely wounded or sick. They also agreed to swap those under 25 years old and prisoners who were seriously injured. Russia has handed the bodies of almost 5,000 Ukrainian military personnel to Ukraine, but only received 27 Russians in return. Ukraine and Russia have exchanged POWs three times, but they have not revealed the exact number. Reporting by Felix Light, Editing by Andrew Osborn
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Russia claims to have struck a refinery which supplies fuel to the Ukrainian army
The Russian defence ministry announced on Sunday that Russian forces had carried out a nighttime strike on the Kremenchuk Oil Refinery, which supplies fuel to Ukrainian troops in the Donbas area. In a statement, the ministry said that missiles fired from sea and air were used to attack the refinery located in Ukraine's Poltava Region. Strike drones also appeared in this successful attack. The Russian report on the battlefield was not verified and the Ukrainians did not immediately comment. Russia claims Ukraine's eastern Donbas as its own, and controls the majority of Donetsk and Luhansk. Ukraine has said that it will use a mix of diplomacy and force to regain territory lost to Russia in the Donbas region. Separately, the Russian Defence Ministry announced that its forces had taken over the village of Malynivka located in the Donetsk Region (known in Russia as Ulyanovka). The Russian military also claimed that its forces had penetrated deep into the enemy's defences in Ukraine’s Sumy region, and suffered heavy losses against Ukrainian units. Sumy isn't one of the areas Russia has claimed as its territory, but they have spoken of creating an area there. The Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced on Saturday that Ukrainian troops had recaptured Andriivka in northeastern Sumy, as part of an effort to expel Russians from the area. He claims that Russia has 53,000 troops near the area. Reporting by Andrew Osborn/Felix Light, Editing by Jan Harvey & David Goodwin
What are the critical minerals of Ukraine and why is Trump interested in them?
U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent arrived at Kyiv, Ukraine on Wednesday for a crucial minerals deal. Ukraine is trying to gain the support of U.S. president Donald Trump in a dangerous diplomatic moment in its war with Russia.
Trump said that he wanted Ukraine to provide the United States rare earth minerals in exchange for financial support of the country's efforts to fight Russia.
Here is a list of critical minerals in Ukraine, including rare Earths and other natural resources that may be of interest to other partners and the U.S.
What are rare earths and what do they serve for?
Rare earths is a grouping of 17 metals, used in the production of magnets for electric cars, cell phones and missile systems. There is no substitute.
The U.S. Geological Survey has identified 50 minerals as critical, such as rare earths like nickel and lithium.
Minerals are vital for industries like defence, high-tech appliances and aerospace, as well as green energy.
What mineral resources does Ukraine have?
According to Ukrainian data, Ukraine has 22 of the 34 critical minerals that the European Union identified. These include ferroalloys, non-ferrous and precious metals, industrial and construction materials and rare earth elements.
According to the Institute of Geology of Ukraine, the country has rare earths like lanthanum, cerium and neodymium. These are used for wind turbines, electric vehicles and batteries. Erbium and yttrium can be used to produce lasers, nuclear power and other applications. EU-funded research indicates that Ukraine also has scandium deposits. All data is classified.
World Economic Forum said that Ukraine is a major potential supplier of lithium as well as beryllium and other metals such zirconium gallium graphite apatite fluorite nickel.
State Geological Service of Ukraine said that Ukraine has one Europe's largest lithium reserves estimated at 500,000 tons - essential for batteries, ceramics and glass.
Titanium reserves are located mainly in the northwestern and central parts of the country, whereas lithium deposits are found in the east, centre and southeast.
The graphite reserves in Ukraine, which are used to make electric vehicles batteries and nuclear power reactors, account for 20% of the global resource. Deposits are located in the west and centre.
Ukraine has also significant coal reserves. However, most of them are under Russian control in the occupied territories.
WHAT HAS UKRAINE COMMENTED ON RARE EARTHS?
On February 7, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said that he would be willing to make a deal with Trump, which included U.S. participation in developing Ukraine's vast deposits of vital minerals, including rare Earths.
Zelenskiy first aired this idea in his "victory plans" strategy that he presented to Kyiv’s allies last fall.
The plan includes, among other things: reaching agreements with partners abroad to allow joint access to Ukraine’s strategic valuable resources.
According to mining analysts and economists, Ukraine does not currently have any rare earth mines that are commercially active.
China is the largest producer in the world of rare earths, as well as many other essential minerals.
Which Ukrainian resources are under Kyiv's control?
The war in Ukraine has left a lot of damage, and Russia controls about a fifth.
The majority of Ukraine's coal reserves, which fueled its steel industry prior to the war, is concentrated in the eastern part and has been lost.
According to We Build Ukraine, and the National Institute of Strategic Studies in Ukraine, data from the first half of the year 2024 shows that about 40% of Ukraine's metallic resources are under Russian occupation. The think-tanks did not provide a detailed breakdown.
Since then, Russian troops continue to make steady progress in eastern Donetsk. In January, Ukraine shut down its sole coking coal mine near the city of Pokrovsk that Moscow is trying to seize.
Russia has taken over at least two Ukrainian deposits of lithium during the war. One in Donetsk, and the other in Zaporizhzhia in the southeast. Kyiv controls the lithium deposits of central Kyrovohrad.
What mining opportunities does Ukraine offer?
Oleksiy Solovev, the first deputy minister of economy, stated in January that the Government was working with Western allies, including the United States and Britain, France, and Italy, on projects related exploitation critical materials. The government estimates that the total investment potential in this sector will be around $12-15 billion between 2033 and 2033.
The State Geological Service stated that the government is preparing 100 sites for joint licensing and development but did not provide any further details.
Investors have highlighted a number barriers to investment, despite the fact that Ukraine has an extremely qualified and inexpensive workforce and developed infrastructure. These include complex and inefficient regulatory processes, as well as difficulties obtaining geological data or land plots.
They said that such projects would require years of development and a large upfront investment. Reporting by Olena Hartmash, Editing by Louise Heavens, Gareth Jones
(source: Reuters)